[Weekly Web3 News Picks] “New Debt King” Jeffrey Gundlach: Gold's rise is far from over, and the price may break through $4,000; the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and the bitmap shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025; PlanB: Currently not a bear market; Bitcoin may break the four-year cycle and rise to 160,000 US dollars this year

Comparative Weekly Web3 News Picks:

[“New Debt King” Jeffrey Gundlach: Gold's rise is far from over, and the price may break above $4,000]

Comparing the news, Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), founder and CEO of Dual Tier Capital, known as the “king of new debt,” said that the rise in gold is far from over, and the price of gold may exceed $4,000.

In his new macroeconomic outlook speech, Gunlak emphasized the continued price momentum of gold as other commodities. Precious metals-backed cryptocurrencies, including PAXG and XAUT, have been benefiting from their historic price increases. He said, “I think the price of gold will rise to $4,000. I'm not sure if this will happen this year, but I think it's like a step-by-step trend. It's an expected increase in gold prices after a long period of consolidation around $1,800.”

His predictions stem from a shift in central bank strategy. Central banks around the world have been increasing their gold reserves, reversing the continuous decline in gold reserves. According to International Monetary Fund data provided by Gunlak, total global gold reserves have climbed from a low of around 34 billion SDR in 2010 to 40.9 billion SDR, reaching levels between 1975 and 1980.

[The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged. The bitmap shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025]

Comparing news, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve's bitmap shows that interest rates are expected to be cut twice in 2025 (two interest rate cuts were expected in December last year).

[PlanB: Currently not a bear market; Bitcoin may break the four-year cycle and rise to $160,000 this year]

Comparing the news, cryptocurrency analyst PlanB posted an article on the X platform today that although some people are calling for a bear market, he does not agree.

He pointed out that Bitcoin's 200-week arithmetic average and geometric mean have continued to be close over the past year, which indicates a decrease in volatility and a steady upward trend. According to the data, the price of Bitcoin rose from $20,000 to $40,000 in 2023, and from $40,000 to $80,000 in 2024.

PlanB further speculates that if this steady upward trend continues, the price of Bitcoin could reach $160,000 in 2025, $32 million in 2026, $64 million in 2027, and so on. He believes that if this happens, it may mean that the traditional four-year bull and bear cycle will end early. Although this is earlier than his previous expectations, it is more in line with the characteristics of a mature market.

PlanB also emphasized that a real bear market (represented by the convergence of the arithmetic mean and geometric mean) will only occur after a real bull market (represented by the divergence of the arithmetic mean and geometric mean), and he believes that there is currently no real bull market.

[EOS will change its name to Vaulta to focus on Web3 banking]

In comparison, EOS Network announced that it will change its name to Vaulta and shift its focus to Web3 banking. The transformation is accompanied by a token exchange that is expected to be scheduled at the end of May. At the same time, the Vaulta Bank Advisory Board was launched, a team of financial and blockchain industry experts dedicated to bridging the gap between traditional banking and decentralized systems. The committee members include executives from Confidence Trust, Tetra, and ATB Financial.

Vaulta plans to preserve its technical infrastructure from EOS Network, including smart contract architecture, decentralized databases, and interblockchain connectivity. As part of its Web3 banking initiative, the platform will integrate with Bitcoin-focused digital banking solution ExSat.

Vaulta will use multiple partnerships with Ceffu, Spirit Blockchain, and Blockchain Insurance to expand its Web3 banking ecosystem.

[Reuters: Fintech and crypto firms seek banking licenses under Trump administration]

According to Twitter, according to Reuters, more and more fintech and cryptocurrency companies are applying for state or federal bank licenses in the US to expand their business in the context of the Trump administration being more crypto-friendly. Industry executives said there has been a significant increase in discussions and applications for licences.

Alexandra Steinberg Barrage, partner at law firm Troutman Pepper Locke, told Reuters: “We're seeing more interest. We are currently processing multiple applications.” However, due to changes in the supervisory authority's leadership, companies are “cautiously optimistic”.

Becoming a bank will bring more stringent regulation, but it can reduce borrowing costs and enhance legality. Banking licenses allow companies to lower the cost of capital by accepting deposits, and cryptocurrency companies, including Paxos, Anchorage, and Protego, have obtained federal trust licenses through the US Monetary Commission (OCC) to become federally regulated crypto “banks.” Kraken and Avanti have obtained special purpose deposit institution licenses in Wyoming, making them state-regulated crypto banks.

According to S&P Global data, between 2010 and 2023, regulators approved an average of only 5 per year, compared to 144 per year between 2000 and 2007. The decline in the number of applications is due to low interest rates, profitability concerns, and regulatory hurdles. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for a simplified approval process. However, the report notes that setting up a new bank is still very expensive, costing between $20 million and $50 million.

[Multicoin Capital Managing Partner: SOL ETF Performance Will Outperform ETH ETF]

Comparing news, Multicoin Capital managing partner Kyle Samani said that Solana-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may perform better than Ethereum-based ETFs due to Solana fees and lower market capitalization. According to reports, Kyle Samani is a major investor in SOL and many of its ecosystem agreements, and he has been publicly urging the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to positively evaluate the SOL ETF.

Samani said, “The reason why ETH ETFs aren't very popular is largely because many investors see ETH and say 'show me the fees'.” Samani believes that from an investment perspective, Solana's theoretical price-earnings ratio is much healthier than Ethereum. Solana's price-earnings ratio is 30 to 50 times, while Ethereum's price-earnings ratio is close to 1,000 times.

Samani said Solana's price-earnings ratio was “more consistent with high-growth tech stocks.”

[Federal Reserve FOMC statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, and the pace of balance sheet contraction will begin to slow down on April 1]

Comparing news, the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement shows that uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, and the pace of balance sheet contraction will begin to slow down on April 1.

[Ripple CEO: Legal victory, proof that XRP is not a security]

Compared to Twitter, Ripple officially released the full text of its CEO Brad Garlinghouse's statement. He said, “More than four years ago, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple, and now we can finally announce that this case is over, and everything is over. The SEC isn't looking for justice; they just want to win the lawsuit at any cost. Ripple's legal victory proved that XRP isn't a security, a battle Ripple never thought of, but we know we have to win. And today, we actually won.”

[NYSE Arca applies to the US SEC to add a staking function to the Bitwise Ethereum ETF]

According to news, NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the New York Stock Exchange, has submitted proposed rule changes (19b-4 application) to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to amend the Bitwise Ethereum ETF to allow staking of Ethereum held by trusts. The SEC issued this notice to solicit opinions from interested parties on the proposed rule changes.

[US SEC: PoW mining does not constitute securities issuance]

Comparatively, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a statement on March 20 that cryptocurrency mining activities based on the Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism do not constitute securities issuance, so there is no need to register in accordance with the Securities Act. The statement pointed out that whether miners mine independently or through mining pools, the rewards they receive are direct returns for contributing to their computing resources, not based on other people's management or operating profits, so they do not meet the definition of an “investment contract.” The SEC emphasized that the certification only applies to specific types of mining activities, and other transactions involving crypto assets still require case analysis.

[“New Debt King” Gunlak: The probability that the US economy will fall into recession is higher than 50%]

Comparing news, “New Debt King” Gunlak said in an interview that he believes the possibility of the US economy falling into recession is between 50% and 60%, which is far higher than most people's expectations. Gunlak said tariffs are likely to cause inflation. Gunlak said it's hard to imagine how the inflation rate could stabilize at the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%.