Bitcoin is stable above $630,000, and analysts say the actual reversal may take months
Comparing news, Bitcoin remained above $63,000 on Monday, continuing its gains of around 4% on Sunday. This rebound is related to Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor once again releasing a signal to increase holdings, which the market generally sees as an important advantage.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is hovering near the key 200-week EMA, which has historically been seen as an important support area for bull and bear transitions. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said that the current market sentiment index has dropped to 8, similar to the situation in mid-2022, when the downward momentum weakened, but a real trend reversal did not occur until a few months later.
In terms of altcoins, Audiera's BEAT token has risen 78% in the past 24 hours, and Siren (SIREN) has risen 33%. Both are Web3 AI projects on BNB Chain, but the specific upward catalyst is unclear.
Derivatives data shows that unliquidated Bitcoin futures contracts have fallen from an all-time high of 901,000 BTC four days ago to 716,000 BTC, indicating that last week's sharp decline was mainly driven by strong bulls rather than large increases in positions by bears. Ethereum's open positions also fell back from 15.98 million ETH to 14.58 million ETH.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH), on the other hand, experienced a simultaneous rise in price with open contracts. In the past 24 hours, unclosed contracts increased by more than 13%, reaching 1.64 million BCH, the highest level since July 2023, while the price fell 8.3% during the same period, indicating that market bearish sentiment continues to heat up, and it may still face the risk of further decline in the future.
In terms of volatility, the 30-day annualized implied volatility index BVIV has fallen from a high of 59% to 50% last Friday, indicating that market fears have abated; Ethereum's implied volatility has also dropped from 75% to 69%.
The five most actively traded contracts in the Deribit options market in the past 24 hours were all call options, including BTC call options with an exercise price of $170,000 and expiring December 25 this year, reflecting that some investors are still betting on Bitcoin's sharp rise before the end of the year.
However, the Gamma distribution of market makers around $60,000 may still amplify price fluctuations and become a major risk factor facing the market.
Additionally, Zcash (ZEC) has rebounded 45% from last week's low after developers proposed a plan to fix the privacy pool forgery vulnerability. On the other hand, since Ethereum fell below $1600 last weekend, USDT briefly surpassed ETH in market capitalization, but as ETH rebounded, the two rankings have returned to normal. Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is still around $1.2 trillion, which is far higher than other crypto assets.
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