Bitunix Analyst: The market is starting to trade peace dividends, but what is really being revalued is the global capital cost and liquidity order
Comparing news, the focus of the market has gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself to the reallocation of funds after the implementation of the peace agreement. When Trump arrived in Europe to attend the G7 summit, the US and Iran simultaneously confirmed that they will sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th, and the process of restarting the Strait of Hormuz continues. However, judging from the statement of MOL, the world's largest oil tanker, the market's real concern is not whether an agreement can be signed, but whether the shipping, insurance, and energy supply chains can resume normal operation. This is also the core reason why shipping companies remain cautious even though oil prices have recently declined and the stock market has risen — risk events are fading, but risk premiums have not completely disappeared.
From a macro perspective, the global market is facing three main lines of capital at the same time. The first is the revision of inflation expectations brought about by falling energy risks. If the US-Iran agreement is successfully implemented, it will help lower energy prices and transportation costs; the second is that the main central bank policies are fragmented, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high, but at the same time announced that it will stop further reducing the scale of debt purchases in the future, which is essentially still controlling fluctuations in the bond market; the new Chairman of the Board of Governors is about to welcome the first FOMC meeting. The narrative of interest rate cuts that the market had originally anticipated has quickly turned to high interest rates for longer, and even began discussing the possibility of raising interest rates for a longer time. In other words, market transactions are no longer about liquidity easing, but about repricing global capital costs.
It is worth noting that capital markets have not experienced significant risk aversion as a result. SpaceX's IPO raised capital to $85.7 billion, Nvidia once again issued up to $20 billion in investment-grade bonds, and BlackRock pointed out that about $8 to 9 trillion is being redirected from money market funds to risky assets. This means that the market is not lacking in liquidity, but that liquidity is looking for a new direction of allocation. When large amounts of capital are concentrated in AI, space industries, and large technology companies, market valuation risks also accumulate at the same time. According to the latest economist survey, more than 70% of respondents believe that the probability of a 20% or more correction in US stocks in the next year is higher than the historical norm, indicating that the market has begun to pay attention to the gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
For the crypto market, this is a typical phase where liquidity and risk appetite dominate. The peace agreement, falling oil prices, and the reentry of capital are beneficial to improving overall risk sentiment, but if Walsh sends signals from the FOMC this week that are more biased towards controlling inflation or contraction, the market may still readjust expectations for future liquidity. In addition, the launch of SpaceX Options, the early arrival of the S&P 500 quarter, and the S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing all mean that global market volatility is likely to increase significantly this week. In this environment, the more important role of BTC is not a leading asset, but rather a trend indicator of whether global capital is willing to continue to take risks. The short-term market is trading peace dividends, but what the medium- to long-term market really needs to be verified is whether asset valuations in a high interest rate environment can be supported by actual profits and cash flow.
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