铅笔道

铅笔道

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Why did he dare to vote for Yu Shu 6 years ago? 丨Exclusive secrets revealed by early investors

Source | Pencil Dao Oral Statement | Edited by Yu Shu Early Investor Zhao Nan | Wang Fang Original title: Yu Shu Early Investors: 6 years ago, why did I dare to invest? 丨Exclusive Today (August 19), Yushu Technology officially landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and became the “first stock of humanoid robots” in A-shares. Yushu's issue price was 150.80 yuan/share, an increase of 629.44% after opening on the first day. The market value reached 444.9 billion yuan at this point. Earlier, Pencil Road had a conversation with its early investor, Zhao Nan, to try to restore it: Why did Yu Shu dare to take action when he was still very low-key? The following is Zhao Nan's oral statement. - 01 - Meet Uki, the first time I met Uki because of the four-legged robot, was in April 2020. It wasn't an accidental encounter. Beginning in 2019, I've been watching robot tracks in a systematic way. Basically, I've looked at all the directions I could see at the time: four-legged robots, underwater robots, food delivery robots, and even some consumer-grade products. After watching that round, I actually have a relatively clear judgment in my mind: the robotics industry is not a question of “whether it will happen,” but “when will it happen.” The real question is: which directions have been proven and which are just imagination. In my opinion, four-legged robots are one of the few directions that have been proven. Look at Boston Dynamics (Boston Dynamics). It has already made robot dogs, and customers are already using it. This incident shows a very important thing: robots are not sci-fi, but have entered the real world. But at the same time, it also revealed a more essential problem — the cost problem: people are too expensive, R&D is too heavy, and the supply chain is immature. At the time, Boston Power's problems were typical: the team was the top team in the world, and labor costs were extremely high; the R&D cycle was long and the investment was huge; even early products were still using diesel instead of lithium; in the end, they were sold by Google to SoftBank Vision Fund. However, this is not to say that there is no demand for four-legged robots; it is that the cost cannot support it. To this day, four-legged robots are still one of Uki's core businesses, so my judgment at the time was: Whoever can cut costs has an opportunity. Obviously, the Chinese team has an opportunity because we have a supply chain advantage. - 02 - Why invest? It was also based on this judgment that I visited Hangzhou for the first time in April 2020 and met Wang Xingxing (founder of Yushu). That meeting actually made me realize very quickly that this isn't a “just starting” team. It was 2020 at the time, and they've been doing it for three years. When Wang Xingxing was a graduate student at Shanghai University, he already brought a four-legged robot laboratory. At that time, he started working on xDog's algorithm. By the time we met him, he had a deep understanding of every detail of the four-legged robot's functions and procedures. In other words, while many teams are still “watching the track,” they are already building up technology. This is particularly critical in the robotics industry, as it is a typical “time for ability” industry. Many things can't be smashed with money; they have to be accumulated little by little. What really made me decide were a few more specific things. First, they have mastered the robot's core underlying ability. Many people think that robots are a “complete machine product,” but in reality, there are three things that really determine the height of a robot company: driver, sensor, and controller. If you don't have these three pieces in your hands, you'll always be just a system integrator. Meanwhile, in 2020, Yu Shu already has accumulated technology and patents on these three areas. This means it's not assembling products, but building underlying capabilities. This essentially determines its upper limit. Second, it's the customer. Many robotics companies “make products first, then find customers”, but Yuuki did the opposite — they already had customers in 2020, and they are not regular customers. At the time, their customers included companies such as Apple, Nvidia, Meta, and Google. These companies buy their robot dogs to use for AI training and algorithm training. Domestic customers are mainly universities. This matter is critical because it shows two things: first, the product is already available; second, the technology has been recognized by top technology companies. Wang Xingxing always pushes everyone to do one thing: make simple products that customers can accept, and sell them one wave first. Not to make money, but to train the company's entire R&D, production, and sales system by selling products. By communicating with customers, we can also find problems and iterate on products. Third, mass production capacity. I went to their company at the time and saw something very detailed — there was a warehouse next to their office building with a press machine that was used to mold parts. At the time, Wang Xingxing explained that a four-legged aircraft...

3d ago铅笔道Uki IPOWang Xing Xing
Why did he dare to vote for Yu Shu 6 years ago? 丨Exclusive secrets revealed by early investors

Ali sells his “son” who earns 2 billion dollars a year: All in AI to buy GPUs in exchange for money

Source | Pencil Dao Author | Huang Xiaogui Original title: Ali sells his son who earns 2 billion dollars a year: In exchange for 10.1 billion yuan to buy a GPU, Alibaba sold a “chicken that can lay eggs.” On August 17, Zhou Bingshu, CEO of Lingxi Mutual Entertainment, issued an internal letter stating that Alibaba will sell its shares in Lingxi Mutual Entertainment, Xinchen Capital will become the new shareholder, and the original management team will continue to be responsible for the company's operations. According to the 21st Century Economic Report, Alibaba sold Lingxi Mutual Entertainment for at least 1.5 billion US dollars (about 10.1 billion yuan). Currently, Alibaba and Xinchen Capital have not officially disclosed the transaction amount. Lingxi Mutual Entertainment is a high-quality asset, with an annual net profit of 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan; with “Three Kingdoms Strategy Edition”, a stable cash cow, the number of global users surpassed 100 million. “Exchange money to buy a card (GPU).” Huang Wei (pseudonym), a person familiar with Alibaba, told Pencil that the sale at this time was to concentrate resources and invest in computing power, and Ali, who is all in AI, has already entered a state of “full agent and model development, and scene access.” - 01 - Sold cash cow and invested in AI Lingxi Mutual Entertainment in Guangzhou. Its predecessor, Jian Yue Technology, was founded by Zhan Zhonghui, a former NetEase executive. In 2017, Ali acquired Jianyue Technology at a valuation of about 1 billion yuan and became a subsidiary. In September 2020, it officially launched the “Lingxi Interactive Entertainment” brand. What really gave this company a foothold in the Chinese game industry was “Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition”, which was launched in 2019. According to Sensor Tower's previous data, the game's revenue in the first two years of its launch was over 1 billion US dollars. In recent years, Lingxi Mutual Entertainment's annual revenue is about 3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan, which is roughly equivalent to the revenue scale of game manufacturers in central China. Also, according to industry media estimates such as “Game Grapes”, Lingxi Mutual Entertainment's profit in 2025 will be about 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan. Ali sells a profitable business to invest in a direction that is still burning money — AI. In fiscal year 2026, Ali's capital expenditure reached 126.063 billion yuan, a record high. Most of this is AI computing power infrastructure and data center expansion. This input is directly reflected in the financial statements. In fiscal year 2026, Ali's revenue reached 1.02 trillion yuan, up 3% year on year, but operating profit fell 64%; adjusted EBITA fell 56%. Free cash flow declined from positive 73.9 billion yuan to negative 466 billion yuan. But this isn't a gamble without a future. Ali CEO Wu Yongming revealed, “(Ali) almost none of the cards are empty.” As of the end of March this year, Alibaba Cloud's revenue reached 41.6 billion yuan, an increase of 38% over the previous year, of which external commercialization revenue increased 40%; revenue from AI-related products was close to 9 billion yuan in a single quarter, accounting for about 30% of external revenue, and has maintained three-digit growth for 11 consecutive quarters. Ali predicts that in about a year, AI-related revenue may account for more than half of cloud business revenue. Today, growth is limited by supply, not demand. The ceiling of demand is far from being reached, but the ceiling of supply is just around the corner. At a time when cash is in high demand, but computing power continues to be exchanged for income, it's like “the family has an emergency, lacks money, and sells something for the family.” Huang Wei described Ali's sale of Lingxi Mutual Entertainment in this way. Lingxi Mutual Entertainment's annual profit is 1.5 to 2 billion yuan. It is a good asset, but it is not a core asset. The game business has a limited strategic relationship with AI, cloud, and e-commerce. Retaining it makes more than 1 billion dollars in profits; selling it will take back more than 10 billion dollars in cash at once and invest in AI. And this isn't the first time. In fiscal year 2026, Ali has successively disposed of many assets such as Gaoxin Retail, Yintai Department Store, and Trendyol Local Lifestyle Services. Each of these businesses has its own situation, but the underlying logic is the same: shrink non-core and concentrate resources on the main line of AI. Lingxi Mutual Entertainment sold 10.1 billion yuan, which is a bit higher than the 7 billion to 9 billion yuan expected by the market. Xinchen Capital's premium bid shows that in the eyes of buyers, this is a high-quality asset. For Ali, being able to sell at a high level is also considered a good time to sell. - 02 - Give me some more cards, I can make more money. The whole industry is buying cards. Overall, the 2026 GPU procurement budget of leading domestic manufacturers was raised from 160 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to about 230 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 44% within half a year. The industry's outlook for 2027 is more aggressive — GPU-related investment is likely to double to 500 billion yuan. The world is more exaggerated. According to data from Jibang Consulting, the total capital expenditure of the world's nine largest cloud vendors will exceed 886.7 billion US dollars in 2026, an increase of nearly 90% over the previous year. Amazon $220 billion, Google...

4d ago铅笔道AIGPU
Ali sells his “son” who earns 2 billion dollars a year: All in AI to buy GPUs in exchange for money
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