凯文·沃什 · 212

Opinion: Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh may send a gentle signal of calm at the Jackson Hole meeting

Comparing news, TD Securities said that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh) may send a mild signal of stability to the market at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Seminar next week. The market will pay attention to Walsh's more clear statement on the future path of monetary policy and whether he reaffirms the Fed's commitment to curb inflation. However, if Walsh continues to avoid providing forward-looking policy guidance, the market may still be disappointed. TD Securities anticipates that Walsh's speech is more likely to signal a gradual policy adjustment rather than suggest a major policy shift. Investors will try to find clues from their remarks about interest rate trends and changes in the Federal Reserve's policy framework.

1d ago

The New York Times: Ominous Omen? US debt surged above 40 trillion US dollars, with a per capita debt of 116,000

Source: The New York Times Compiled and Edited by: BitPushNews Original title: U.S. Debt Hits $40 Accumulated as America's Borrowing Binge ContinuesBitPush Note: The size of US federal government debt has once again broken through a historic integer node. According to data released by the US Treasury Department on the 19th, the total US debt surpassed 40 trillion US dollars for the first time, which is nearly 10 trillion US dollars more than last year's US gross domestic product (GDP), which means that every American is burdened with about 116,000 US dollars in debt. Here is the text: On Wednesday, the total amount of US Treasury bonds broke the $40 trillion mark for the first time. This is an ominous milestone for the US economy: for decades, the US has relied on continuous borrowing to support growing military spending, social security spending, and President Trump's tax cuts, and the fiscal ground has loosened. This year alone, the US will need to borrow more than 2 trillion US dollars to cover various financial expenses, including military expenses for the Iran war and large-scale tax cuts passed by the Republicans in 2025. Meanwhile, interest payments to US debt holders have also risen sharply. Currently, they account for nearly half of the total deficit, further dragging the US into a fiscal quagmire. Is this growing debt a crisis that must be addressed, or is it an alternative manifestation of America's economic strength? It's still a contentious topic. Deficits are also a battleground in a bipartisan political game — when the Republicans are in opposition, they have always been most vocal about reducing the deficit. “The scariest part of this is that we are beginning to see signs of a spiral in debt,” Mark Godwin, senior policy director at the “Committee for Responsible Federal Budget,” which supports deficit reduction, said of interest on debt. The inability of legislators to deal with the debt problem poses long-term risks. Although the US remains the world's largest economy, rising debt burdens may cause investors to demand higher interest rates on US Treasury bonds or question America's credibility, which could shake people's confidence in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Both Republicans and Democrats are responsible for America's debt burden. America is having to sell more and more debt to cover the costs of health-care programs, stimulus benefits, disaster relief, and day-to-day government operations. President Trump promised to restore fiscal order, yet many of his policies have exacerbated America's financial woes. When he first ran for president in 2016, Trump said he would eliminate the national debt within eight years by reaching a new trade deal and spurring economic growth. Since then, the national debt has doubled. During his second term, Trump's major measures to cut spending and increase revenue were unsuccessful. The Government Efficiency Department, initially headed by Elon Musk, promised to cut federal spending by $1 trillion. So far, the department claims to have saved just over $200 billion. The US Government Accountability Office said this month that the Government Efficiency Department's estimates lack reliability and transparency. By imposing comprehensive tariffs on imported goods, the Trump administration has previously made progress in increasing additional government revenue. However, this year, the Supreme Court ruled that some of these tariffs were illegal, forcing the federal government to refund more than 160 billion US dollars to companies that have already paid import tariffs, causing these plans to be thwarted. Treasury Secretary Bezent has set a goal of reducing the deficit from more than 6% of GDP when Trump took office to 3% by 2028. He admitted last week that this year's deficit situation is moving in the wrong direction. In an interview with Newsmax, Bezent gave several reasons for the growing deficit. He said that expenses related to the Iran war forced the US to increase military spending, and that tariff refunds weakened the Trump administration's progress in reducing the deficit as a share of GDP in 2025. The war in Iran has led to a rise in US energy prices, which has also dragged down economic growth and weakened economic expansion that Trump administration officials had hoped would increase taxes. Bessent also said that last year's tax cuts are increasing deficits as businesses are using a provision that allows them to immediately deduct plant construction and equipment costs. According to estimates by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, these measures could cost $100 billion in fiscal expenditure this year. However, the finance minister said that despite the initial costs, these tax cuts will pay off in the future through increased revenue. “While this will currently widen the deficit, we are creating productive assets for future growth, and these assets will generate taxes in the future,” Bezent said. “I'd rather compare this to pulling out a slingshot, creating a large amount of potential energy, and then converting it into kinetic energy.” Although he believes that the fiscal trend will stabilize, investment...

2d agoBitpushNews#Trump #US debt #Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve microphone: US Senator asks Walsh to disclose Mandarin records with Trump, questioning the transparency of the Federal Reserve

Comparing news, Nick Timiraos, the chief economic reporter of the Wall Street Journal and known as the Federal Reserve's microphone, recently wrote that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh is facing severe audit pressure from Congress. On Wednesday local time, four members of the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Chris Van Hollen (Chris Van Hollen), sent a joint letter to Walsh requesting that all details of their communication with US President Trump be publicly disclosed. Earlier, there were reports that Walsh maintained frequent telephone contact with Trump after taking office, but no related calls were recorded in the Federal Reserve's public schedule for Walsh's initial tenure. Lawmakers believe that this kind of selective transparency may raise concerns about the government interfering with monetary policy. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said earlier that Walsh and Trump have maintained economic discussions for a long time, but said Trump will not put pressure on the Federal Reserve. Trump later denied the reports, saying that he had only had a brief conversation with Walsh a few days ago. Currently, the Federal Reserve said it is still delaying disclosure of the chairman's schedule in accordance with established rules. The market is concerned about whether Walsh will add relevant information and whether this will affect external confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve.

2d ago

Trump once again criticized the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy, saying that the US should bear lower financing costs

Comparing news, US President Trump once again criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy on Wednesday, saying that the central bank still should not prevent interest rate cuts when economic data is improving, and that the US should pay much lower interest rates. Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh) did a good job, but criticized the Federal Reserve Board for political factors, saying that some members were appointed by Obama, Biden, and themselves, and may support maintaining high interest rates for political reasons. Trump said that in the past, improved economic data usually drove interest rates down, but now the better the data, the higher the interest rate. He believes that cutting interest rates will not only help the economy grow, but will also reduce the financing pressure on the US debt of nearly 40 trillion US dollars. However, the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates since 2023, and began a cycle of cutting interest rates in the second half of 2025, with a cumulative total of 6 interest rate cuts. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting show that most officials believe that if inflation cannot cool down further, it may still be necessary to maintain higher interest rates in the future. Trump also complained that the US interest rate level is higher than that of some overseas economies, and using Switzerland's benchmark interest rate of about 0.5% as an example, he said that the current US interest rate level of about 3.5% is unreasonable. On the same day, the US Treasury Department announced the expansion of long-term treasury bond repurchases to at least double the scale of 10-year to 30-year treasury repurchase operations, from a single $2 billion to $4 billion to enhance the liquidity of the long-term bond market. The market believes that this measure will help ease the recent upward pressure on US bond yields.

2d ago

Walsh pushes AI to reshape the Federal Reserve, but it still relies on traditional interest rate tools to fight inflation in the short term

Comparing news, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh is promoting the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to reshape the central bank's economic analysis and policy decision-making system, but as inflationary pressure continues, the Fed still needs to rely on traditional interest rate tools to stabilize prices in the short term. According to reports, Walsh hopes to reduce the Fed's reliance on lagging economic data and traditional surveys through AI, and use real-time data provided by retailers, banks and other institutions to capture changes in economic growth and inflation more quickly. He previously built AI models called Milton (Milton) and Tobin (Tobin) to analyze modern economic problems. Since taking office, Walsh has promoted the expansion of AI applications within the Federal Reserve. Currently, dozens of employees have explored the role of AI in data analysis and economic forecasting through test environments. At the same time, he is also considering adjusting the operating mechanism of the Federal Reserve, including reducing the number of annual monetary policy meetings to improve decision-making efficiency. However, the market is still divided over the Walsh reforms. After its press conference on July 29, the US stock market fluctuated, and some investors questioned its stance on curbing inflation. Analysts believe that although AI may enhance the Fed's ability to make long-term decisions, the central bank's policy framework will not fundamentally change in the short term due to technological transformation. The market expects that the Federal Reserve under Walsh's leadership will continue to advance AI and institutional reforms, but until inflation returns to the 2% target, interest rate policy will still be the main regulatory tool.

12d ago

Trump: The Fed's interest rate decision is not entirely up to Walsh

Comparing news, when asked if Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh should avoid raising interest rates before the midterm elections, Trump said: This depends on him to a certain extent, but this is not entirely true. He has a very politicized committee. It was not entirely up to him, but to the Committee. I think he's excellent. I'm not going to criticize him.

15d ago

Wall Street “cries” over the reform of the Federal Reserve, and Damon supports Walsh, saying it is very farsighted

Comparing news, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh recently triggered a sharp backlash on Wall Street due to the reduction in policy communication and the cancellation of forward-looking guidelines. Faced with market pain and questions, J.P. Morgan CEO Dimon publicly supported Walsh, saying that the reforms were “of extraordinary significance.” When the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh) took office, he waved a “scalpel” over the Federal Reserve's long tradition of communication. This strategy, which seeks to streamline and reduce intervention, has made Wall Street, which is used to being “fed” by policies, extremely uncomfortable. However, in the midst of this storm of policy transformation, Jamie Dimon (Jamie Dimon), CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, the head of the nation's largest banks, firmly sided with Walsh. In an interview, Dimon made no secret of his admiration for the Walsh reforms, calling their approach “extraordinary significance.” Faced with collective complaints from peers and analysts, Damon's comments seemed quite painful. He bluntly pointed out that Wall Street's current reaction is like a “frightened little pig screaming,” and in his opinion, this anxiety caused by reduced policy transparency is not enough reason to hinder reforms.

16d ago

Affected by reports related to Google's bond issuance plan and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the decline in US debt widened

Comparing news, US Treasury bonds came under pressure in early New York trading. Google announced the launch of 10 bonds, dragging down the long end of the yield curve and driving the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads to intraday highs. On the short side, there are reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh “will prepare to raise interest rates at the September meeting” if the inflation data released in the next few weeks is too hot. Short-term US bond yields rose after the report was released. US bond yields rose by 3 to 4 basis points across the board, with long-term bonds leading the decline. 2s10s and 5s30s steeper by about 1 basis point, reaching the widest range in the market. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to about 4.65%, up 3.5 basis points on the same day. Google's current bond issue covers multiple terms, with the shortest period of 2 years and the longest period of 40 years. The interest rate market is currently still taking into account the September rate hike forecast of about 15 basis points, and the cumulative rate hike by the end of the year is expected to be about 33 basis points.

16d ago

Will the next storm in US stocks be caused by US debt? The week ahead is critical

Original author: Xu Chao Original source: Wall Street sees that the US Treasury bond market is sending increasingly strong pressure signals to other asset classes, and the stock market bears the brunt of it. Long-term US bond yields rose sharply last week. The 30-year Treasury yield hit the highest level since 2007, and the 10-year Treasury yield also broke through the trading range maintained since the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which measures the expected volatility of the US bond market, rose to its highest point since May, and demand for put options betting on falling bond prices surged. Chicago Options Exchange data showed that one-month put option bias linked to iShares's 20-year or more US Treasury bond ETF soared to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. In the coming week, the details of the US Treasury's financing plan were revealed and the July non-farm payrolls report was released one after another. The shock in the bond market may further intensify. Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds recently wrote in a review: “It is difficult to determine how long other asset markets such as stocks can continue to support at current interest rates without being dragged downward. “Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also warned that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy guidelines, compounded by multiple noises such as geopolitics, is creating a dangerous situation in the market. The credibility of the Federal Reserve has been questioned. The core driving force behind the rise in US bond yields in this round of rising long-term bond yields comes from the market questioning the credibility of the Fed's policies. Since Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh) took charge of the Federal Reserve, he has taken a tough stance on fighting inflation, but the inflation rate has been higher than the Fed's 2% policy target for five consecutive years, and investors are beginning to wonder whether the Fed is actually willing to raise interest rates again. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Committee had a rare disagreement — three regional Fed presidents voted for interest rate hikes, contrary to the position of most members of the committee. When Walsh finished last week's press conference, long-term bond yields suddenly jumped, while short-term bond yields declined at the same time, and the spread between the two narrowed sharply. Analysis of Dow Jones market data shows that this is the biggest compression of the “Federal Reserve Interest Day” yield curve since 2023. Goldberg of TD Securities said: “The market is questioning how determined the Federal Reserve is in controlling inflation. “At the same time, he pointed out that under the benchmark situation, interest rates will not be raised this year or next, but the probability of interest rate hikes has “increased significantly.” The volatility of the bond market increased, and changes in hedging demand rapidly expanded yields were quickly transmitted to the derivatives market, and hedging demand heated up sharply. The ICE Bank of America MOVE Index hit a high level since May, indicating that traders are actively hedging the risk of further upward interest rates. Meanwhile, the trading volume of put options linked to iShares's 20-year US Treasury bond ETF (TLT) increased markedly compared to the ratio of bullish options. Chicago Options Exchange analysts pointed out that the one-month TLT put option bias has soared to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. What is particularly noteworthy is that this round of rising long-term yields and crude oil prices showed a divergent trend — oil prices fell rather than rising at the same time as yields. This further weakened the correlation between yield and oil prices, increasing market uncertainty. Spillover effects are looming, and the risk of the stock market under pressure is rising. The turmoil in the US bond market has always been a precursor to stock market risk. The current situation has also left equity market investors sitting idly by. Bob Elliott pointed out in his comments that whenever US bond yields hit or approach current levels, pressure often begins to spread to other markets, and the stock market is dragged down first. Currently, the yield on 30-year treasury bonds has reached 5.239%, and the 10-year yield is 4.693%, all in the historically high range. Goldberg also admits that the geopolitical uncertainty brought about by the Iranian situation, the fuzziness of the Federal Reserve's policy guidelines, and the combination of other multiple market noises all make up the current weak market environment. “All kinds of uncertainties are intertwined,” he said. A window of multiple events is approaching, and the critical one-week test is imminent. The next week will be a critical window period for whether this round of pressure on US debt can spread. Later this week, the US Treasury will announce the details of the latest government financing plan. Anything that exceeds expectations could trigger a new round of fluctuations in the bond market. A number of important economic data will be released one after another this week, ending with Friday's July non-farm payrolls report. The employment data will have a significant impact on the market's expectations about the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy. Meanwhile, last week the US...

17d ago22#policy #options #finance

US Treasury Secretary Bezent urges the Federal Reserve to expand FIMA instruments, or intervene in stabilizing the yen attracted attention

Comparing news, US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently publicly called on the Federal Reserve to expand the scope of use of the FIMA Repo Facility (FIMA Repo Facility) by foreign and international monetary authorities, drawing market attention to whether the Federal Reserve will participate more directly in Japan's actions to stabilize the yen. According to reports, the US has previously supported the stability of the yen through the foreign exchange market; this is rare for the US to directly participate in exchange rate intervention. Bezent hopes that in the future, Japan can obtain US dollar liquidity through FIMA tools rather than selling its US bonds in exchange for capital, so as to avoid selling US bonds to push up yields. Currently, Japan holds about 1.1 trillion US dollars in US Treasury bonds, and the market estimates that the scale of this Japanese yen intervention is about 60 billion to 80 billion US dollars. The FIMA tool allows foreign central banks to borrow dollars using US bonds as collateral, which can reduce the impact of large-scale sales of US bonds on the market. However, it is rare for Bezent to publicly request adjustments to the Federal Reserve's instruments. Former US Treasury official Mark Sobel said that in the past, the Treasury Secretary usually communicated and coordinated privately without publicly asking the Federal Reserve to change monetary instruments. The market is concerned about the position of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh). Walsh said earlier that the Federal Reserve can cooperate with the executive branch and Congress in the field of international finance and maintain close communication with Bezent. Analysts pointed out that expanding the FIMA tool may enhance the liquidity management capabilities of foreign central banks holding US bonds, and at the same time reduce the impact on the US bond market when Japan and other countries interfere with the exchange rate. However, the plan involves the Federal Reserve's authority and still requires approval from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The market believes that the core of this incident is not only the yen issue, but also that the US Treasury publicly promotes adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy tools, which may affect the future boundaries of the relationship between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

18d ago