博彩 · 558

CME, CFTC, Kalshi clash fiercely over predictive market regulation

Comparatively, CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy (Terrence Duffy) had a heated confrontation with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig (Michael Selig) and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on predictive market regulation issues. Duffy said that some predicted market contracts were at risk of being manipulated, especially some contracts listed through self-certification. He pointed out that some contracts relating to the content of Trump's State of the Union address and the time when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stepped down may have manipulation issues, adding that this is bad for the entire industry. Selig immediately interrupted Duffy, saying that the relevant products he mentioned were not sold in the US, and that the related incident occurred overseas, saying that Duffy's claims were fake news. Duffy responded that he was only raising market risks, and said he could continue discussions if needed. As the forecast market grows rapidly, disputes between US federal regulators and state governments over regulatory powers are also intensifying. Some state governments believe that prediction contracts involving sporting events are gambling and may violate state gaming laws; while Seliger said that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over the prediction market and has initiated lawsuits with several states over related regulatory disputes. Selig said that the CFTC is expected to further revise the relevant rules to strengthen the listing requirements and consumer protection standards for incident contracts, and that regulators have fully listened to the market's concerns about insufficient protection for retail consumers. The prediction market is also facing questions about insider trading and market manipulation in the near future. The US Congress has proposed a bill prohibiting the listing of sports events and casino prediction contracts on registered platforms. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced new anti-insider trading and anti-market manipulation measures. In the latter half of the meeting, Lopes Lara, Kalshi's chief operating officer, asked Duffy if CME had experienced market manipulation issues. Duffy responded that CME regulators have more people than your entire company, and Lopes Lara irked that they should learn how to be more efficient. The two sides then continued to clash over issues such as a credible market. Currently, the prediction market is at a critical point of regulation. Jurisdictional disputes between the CFTC and state regulators, as well as competition between traditional derivatives exchanges and emerging prediction market platforms, may affect the future development path of this market.

1d ago

Does the forecast market with monthly turnover of 44.8 billion US dollars need a main broker?

Source: Fintech Blueprint Compiled and edited by BitPushNewsBetterment recently published its 2026 retail investor survey. The main conclusion is that 26% of Gen Z investors see sports betting as part of their long-term financial strategy, and 52% have invested the money they originally intended to invest into it last year. The survey of 1000 US retail investors in early April showed that proportion rapidly declined as people grew older — 31% and 14% for millennials, 10% and 6% for Gen X, and 4% and 1% for Baby Boomers. Betterment CEO Sarah Levy put it bluntly: The problem comes when a prediction market or sports betting platform starts to feel like a retirement strategy. The combined monthly trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $44.8 billion in June, which is more than three times the average monthly transaction volume of approximately $14 billion for all US legal sports betting in 2025. Source: Bloomberg/Betterment Let's explore whether this transaction volume is huge enough to support the dedicated agency hierarchy below. Earlier this month, River Markets raised $8.5 million in seed funding to build what it calls “the first institutional-grade execution and prime broker platform for the prediction market.” Led by Haun Ventures, Y Combinator, Coinbase Ventures, Qube Research & Technologies, and Cherry Ventures participated, in addition to angel investors from Citadel, HRT, J.P. Morgan, Nvidia, and Google. The company has been online with trading clients since May 1 and has publicly listed five client names: Chimera Capital Management, Game Point Capital, Cleat Street, Skywalk, and 646 Equity. It claims to own three of the top ten traders on Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as several quantitative funds running on its API. The problems they are solving are real and unremarkable. The liquidity of the prediction market is distributed across multiple trading sites, which may have different quotes on the results of the same event, involving separate accounts, separate balances, independent APIs, and no uniform view of risk. A trader who trades the same event on Kalshi and Polymarket actually manually manipulates the two books and then reconcile the accounts. River integrates these sites into a single terminal and an API, uses a unified code system, adds execution algorithms (iceberg orders, linked orders, stop-loss orders, take-profit orders) not native to the exchange, and routes eligible orders to the best prices in the online ledger. It's live on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US, and is integrating Novig and Crypto.com. Today, it's more like an order and execution management system than a Prime Broker (PB) — a boundary drawn by River itself. Its FAQ states that the real-time platform covers execution, routing, data, and profit and loss, that customer funds are kept in venue accounts rather than centrally pooled, and that companies are invited to contact them about financing, collateral, and cross-market requirements. Source: Allium predicts that the cumulative historical trading volume of the market exceeded 150 billion US dollars in May. Kalshi alone reached 31.5 billion US dollars in June, while Polymarket was 10.8 billion US dollars. Kalshi is currently in final negotiations to finance at least $750 million, with a valuation of $40 billion; Polymarket is financing at a valuation of $15 billion, after ICE had already committed $2 billion in two instalments. Kalshi's annualized revenue surpassed $4 billion in July, roughly double the $2 billion annualized pace two months ago. At the peak of the World Cup,...

4d agoBitpushNews#HYPERLIQUID #Kalshi #Ondo

Trump is sitting on the same stage, and the two supervisors are on the same stage. What tone will this crypto summit set?

Author: Claude, Shenzhen TechFlow Original title: Crypto Summit Preview: Trump personally sits in town, what new regulations will the SEC and CFTC heads agree on on the same stage? In-depth explanation: On August 19, the White House will convene a meeting with crypto giants such as Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z, as well as traditional finance executives such as Nasdaq and CME. Trump himself, SEC Chairman Atkins, and CFTC Chairman Selig are expected to attend. The summit comes on the eve of the Senate's 60-vote procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Industry commentator Nate Geraci determined that the White House no longer plans to wait for Congress. On August 14, Semafor reporter Eleanor Mueller released news on X: The White House is preparing for a crypto industry summit, scheduled for August 19 (Wednesday). The source is “someone who knows the plan.” Politico followed up on the same day, citing three anonymous people familiar with the matter to confirm. ETF industry commentator Nate Geraci then published a more complete list of invitees on X: Trump himself, SEC Chairman Atkins, CFTC Chairman Selig, and crypto industry executives such as Coinbase, Polymarket, Ripple, and Gemini. Traditional financial giants were also invited. Geraci is the president of The ETF Store and has been commenting on ETFs and crypto assets in mainstream financial media for a long time. At the end of his tweet, he said, “The government is not going to wait for the CLARITY Act. Asking for support is fine, but I think they've decided to move forward no matter what. I expect this conference will send this signal strongly.” Who has been invited to the White House crypto and prediction market: Coinbase, Ripple, a16z (Andreessen Horowitz), Chainlink, Paradigm, Kalshi. Representatives from the industry organization Digital Chamber were also invited. Blockonomi's coverage also added Gemini, Robinhood, and Polymarket. Traditional financial side: Nasdaq, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), DTCC. Executives from these companies also serve on the CFTC's newly formed Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC). Administration side: Trump himself is expected to attend, and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig confirmed their participation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick may attend, but no final confirmation has been made. The conference venue is the Eisenhower Executive Office building, close to the main White House building. The White House and neither of the two regulators have released an official agenda. Compared to the March 2025 summit, Kalshi and Polymarket are on the list, and MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor is missing. The main characters changed a group. The CLARITY Act and Trump's crypto wallet CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) will solve a problem that has dragged on for more than a decade: delineating the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC on digital assets. Which tokens are securities managed by the SEC, and which are commodities managed by the CFTC. Blurred borders have caused US crypto exchanges to frequently remove tokens, unable to launch products in the US, and the company moved its headquarters overseas. In July 2025, the House of Representatives passed 294 to 134, and 78 Democrats voted in favor. In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced 15-9. When it came to the full house voting session, it got stuck. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion before the August 8 recess. On September 15, at 2:15 p.m., the procedural vote began, with a 60 vote threshold. The Republican Party holds 53 seats and is still 7 votes short of all in favor. The market structure provisions have basically been finalized; what is really stuck is a few political issues. Trump's crypto assets are the sharpest. Senator Th...

5d ago深潮TechFlow#CFTC #Coinbase #SEC #Trump

J.P. Morgan Chase terminated Polymarket banking services last year and is still seeking underwriting opportunities for its IPO

Comparing the news, people familiar with the matter said that J.P. Morgan Chase terminated banking services for Polymarket in October last year due to regulatory concerns, requiring the company to find a new banking institution. Previously, Polymarket was banned from providing services to US customers due to enforcement actions taken by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022. Currently, Polymarket has partnered with a new bank, but the exact name has not been disclosed. J.P. Morgan still does business with Polymarket and invited its CEO Shayne Coplan to attend a private banking customer conference in Miami in February of this year to speak with former NFL player Tom Brady. Polymarket said that the two parties still maintain a close and active relationship with multiple entities, operational integration, and customer fund flow processing. Since 2026, prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have faced legal action by several US states against them for allegedly operating illegal sports betting, while related platforms consider themselves to be exchanges that match buyers and sellers, not bookmakers. According to user aggregated data, the predicted market nominal trading volume has exceeded $250 billion since 2026. Meanwhile, Polymarket is seeking more than $1 billion in financing, with a target valuation of $20 billion, which is more than double the valuation of approximately $8 billion in the previous round of financing in 2025.

8d ago

Polymarket reorganizes team and introduces multiple executives to accelerate compliance and US expansion to welcome the fall forecast market boom

Comparing news, the prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing organizational upgrades for the upcoming fall trading peak, preparing for the expansion of the US market by introducing multiple executives, restructuring the marketing system, and strengthening compliance teams. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of electric scooter sharing company Bird and a former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer to be responsible for building the company's growth strategy and marketing system. VanderZanden said the forecasting market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth. The adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has investigated its business model for reasons related to platform marketing activities and promotion cooperation policies. People familiar with the matter said that Polymarket has reorganized its marketing department, updated promotion partner rules, conducted relevant training for employees, and hired consulting agency AlixPartners to monitor whether the content posted by partners complies with the new regulations. At the same time, Polymarket continues to strengthen the compliance and risk management capabilities of its US business. The company's US trading platform added a number of regulatory and risk executives, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as the US platform's chief compliance officer; former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny responsible for US regulatory affairs; former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as head of global investigation and intelligence; and Paul Jordan, a former Nasdaq executive, as the US platform's chief risk officer. Polymarket's US trading platform was launched in May of this year and remains independent of its international market business. As the new NFL season begins in September and the US midterm elections approach in November, the market anticipates that market trading activity will usher in a new round of growth. Previously, Polymarket has become one of the representative platforms in the forecasting market and continues to seek to expand the scale of financing. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new round of financing at a valuation of more than $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is trying to transform from a gaming-style prediction platform for retail investors to a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)

11d ago

US CFTC warns to predict the market: ban “bet 100 to earn how much” betting odds

Comparatively, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently sent a letter to regulated platforms requesting that the forecast market stop using American-style “money line” odds. The so-called “money line” is a common “+/-” format in gambling — for example, “+200” means betting $100 to win $200, and “-150” means you need to bet $150 to win $100. According to the CFTC, this statement is deceptive and induces users to view it as gambling rather than an investment. Research shows that such odds tend to encourage risk-taking. CFTC Chairman Selig recently pushed for the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over the prediction market and sued multiple states to maintain its position. Kalshi said it would cooperate with the rectification, but Polymarket did not respond. Currently, the dispute over jurisdiction between prediction markets and state-level gaming laws continues.

15d agoWendy#starters

US senators call on CFTC to ban California wildfire prediction market, fearing traders arson profits

Comparing news, US Democratic Senator sent a letter to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig requesting a ban on predicting transactions related to the California wildfires in the market, fearing that traders may artificially cause disasters in order to obtain profits. The letter, led by Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, mentioned that during the Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025, the relevant forecast market generated a cumulative total of approximately $1.2 million in transactions. Among them, when Palisades Fire was completely extinguished, the market transaction volume reached 711,600 US dollars, and the maximum single bet was about 274,800 thousand US dollars. Most of the funds were bet on the later extinction date. The report said that the new rules proposed by the CFTC on June 10 require item-by-item review of forecasting market contracts, covering categories such as terrorism, assassination, war, gambling, and illegal activities, but currently there are no clear incidents involving wildfires. (BeInCrypto)

18d ago

Security Warning: Coldcard Attacks Continue, Users Should Migrate Relevant Address Funds Immediately

Comparing news, Coldcard was attacked, and the stolen funds have now risen to 1367.05 BTC worth about US$88.6 million, involving 4,585 addresses. Galaxy research director Alex Thorn said the attack is still ongoing, and users who haven't migrated their funds should immediately transfer their assets out of the address generated by Coldcard. He also called on affected users to actively provide information to help track down the stolen funds and report them to law enforcement agencies. Thorn said that the three previously confirmed large-scale attacks have obvious programmatic characteristics, and the transaction pattern is similar, and may have been automatically orchestrated; the relevant stolen BTC is still at the attackers' address and has not been transferred. Recently, however, smaller opportunistic attackers have appeared, and will transfer and launder funds within a few hours. Some of the funds flow to overseas gaming platforms through cross-chain services such as THORChain. All Coldcard single-signature addresses generated after the March 2021 firmware upgrade may eventually be stolen, and users should complete the migration as soon as possible. Stolen funds had previously been silent for an average of 3.18 years, with a median of 3.55 years. The victims were mainly long-term holders. Thorn said that most of the stolen assets that have been discovered have not yet been moved, and the relevant addresses have been submitted to US law enforcement agencies and industry contacts. He believes that this incident has dealt a major blow to Bitcoin self-hosting, and the industry needs to improve security, education, and risk alerts about the complexity of self-hosting.

20d ago

US 44 state attorneys general sent a joint letter against the CFTC's regulation of the sports prediction market

In comparison, the attorneys general of 44 US states wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday that the agency has no authority to regulate sports-related events contracts on forecasting market platforms. The letter stated that the CFTC's first proposed rule on predictive market regulation exceeds its legal powers, conflicts with the Constitution, and is arbitrary. It should be reformulated and made clear that sports betting cannot be traded in designated contract markets and is subject to state law. The attorneys general of Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Texas did not sign the letter.

24d ago

HPC and Multicoin support the CFTC predictive market supervision framework, and the prediction market should be uniformly regulated by the CFTC

In comparison, Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) revealed that it has submitted a joint submission with Multicoin Capital to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to support its proposed predictive market regulation framework. The two sides stated that the forecasting market should be uniformly supervised by the CFTC as the sole federal regulator, rather than being managed separately by each state in accordance with gaming regulations to avoid market fragmentation. HPC and Multicoin believe that event contracts based on trading platforms are fundamentally different from traditional gaming, and the former should be incorporated into the financial market supervision system. The opinion suggests that the CFTC further clarify incident contract review standards, including using judgment methods based on contract settlement results and disclosing the specific reasons for each review decision to improve regulatory transparency and provide stable expectations for market participants. Hyperliquid said its platform already supports outcome-based on-chain contract trading. The relevant market has grown rapidly since its launch in May, the number of unclosed positions recently reached a record high, and all positions were completed through on-chain collateral and settlement. Both sides believe that a clear and technology-neutral federal regulatory framework will drive the development of compliance in the on-chain prediction market and derivatives market. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

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