去杠杆 · 488

The share of crypto OI rose to 67% after BTC and ETH surged, but nearly 90% of the increase was due to price revaluation

Comparative news, according to TradingBeats statistics, Hyperliquid's primary DEX has an OI of about US$8.180 billion, accounting for 66.97% of the total OI with Trade.xyz; Trade.xyz is about US$4,035 million, accounting for 33.03%. Twenty-four hours ago, they accounted for 64.18% and 35.82%, respectively. Crypto's perpetual share increased by about 2.79 percent in 24 hours, but most of this came from nominal revaluation brought about by the rise in BTC and ETH. If the current number of contracts is revalued uniformly based on the price within 24 hours, the share of cryptographic perpetuity only rose to 64.44%, an increase of about 0.26 percentage points over the previous period; if the number of contracts remained the same 24 hours ago and only the current price was applied, the share could rise to 66.67%. According to this estimate, of the 2.79 percentage point share increase in this round, about 2.49 percentage points, or nearly 90%, came from price increases, and the actual change in the number of contracts contributed only about 0.3 percentage points. After removing the price impact, both sides are actually deleveraging. At current prices, native crypto OI decreased by about $147 million, and Trade.xyz decreased by about $129 million; however, Trade.xyz contracted by about 3.1% compared to the previous value, which is higher than 1.8% of native crypto. BTC is the most obvious: it has risen by about 8.6% in the past 24 hours, but OI has decreased by about 2,542 BTC, to about $177 million at current price; nominal OI still rose from $2.42 billion to $2.49 billion. ETH rose by about 18%, and the nominal OI increased by about 310 million US dollars, but in reality only about 1,475 ETH was added, which is about $3.34 million at the current price. HYPE was the main exception. While its price increased by about 23.2%, OI increased by about 811,000 units, equivalent to $58.36 million at the current price. The return of 67% of the share of cryptographic perpetual OI does not mean that BTC and ETH have added large-scale leveraged funds. It is mainly driven by rising currency prices, increasing nominal OI, and the faster deleveraging speed of Trade.xyz.

2d ago

Bitcoin's rebound may just be a blood sacrifice for bears after bursting $1.1 billion overnight

Author: Shenchao TechFlow Original title: BTC's largest single-day short liquidation in history: $1.1 billion of short funds evaporated overnight, but shouting back is too early for every escape from death, requiring empty sacrifices. Bitcoin's intraday volume skyrocketed last night, once approaching the $70,000 mark. While the investment community is full of buoyancy, what you might not know is that last night was the largest single-day short liquidation in crypto history. The network's single-day bears rallied over 1.1 billion US dollars, breaking historical records in a fractured manner. The $1.1 billion bears were tightened overnight, breaking the crypto history record. On the night of August 19, BTC started around $64,000 and rose about 7% in an hour, reaching an intraday high of $69,970, just one step away from the 70,000 mark. This is the highest price since early June and the biggest one-day increase since March. The sharp rise was accompanied by blood washing in the contract market. According to public contract data, the entire network closed out about US$1,345 million in the past 24 hours, involving 105,000 traders, of which short orders were about US$1,191 million, and the long ones were only 153 million. In the most intense hour, the entire network sold out $1,194 million, with bears accounting for 93.5%. By currency type, Bitcoin contract bears were liquidated by about $662 million in 24 hours, while Ethereum bears were about $366 million. Leveraged positions that bet on falling were uprooted almost at the same time. Several whale positions on Hyperliquid totaling nearly $200 million (large highly leveraged companies) have also been completely liquidated. The liquidation itself will speed up the market. A strong bearish position means being forced to buy back up. The higher the price, the more explosive the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the price, forming a self-reinforcing feedback loop. At the same time, judging from multiple data sources, this is the largest Bitcoin shorting settlement in a single day. The White House summit was only the trigger; the catalyst came from the bond market attributing the surge to the combined benefits of the two. One is the message side. On August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives such as Coinbase, Kraken's parent company Payward, and Blockchain.com at the White House, and the market's optimism about the shift in regulation heats up. The other one is lower level. On the same day, the US Treasury Department announced a direct doubling of the liquidity support for long-term treasury bond repurchases, raising the upper limit of a single operation from 2 billion US dollars to at least 4 billion US dollars, effective September 9. In the crypto community's view, this is a more tangible sign than the summit: macro liquidity is loosening in the direction of risky assets. The data also confirms institutional buying. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $297.6 million on Monday and another $189 million on Tuesday; funding rates have risen to a 20-month high. The bulls are crowded, and the bears are even more crowded. Once the price starts, a strong pedal will automatically be relayed. The last big bear liquidation dates back to 5.19, and old chives must remember “5.19” in May 2021: China clearly prohibited financial institutions and payment institutions from carrying out virtual currency-related business. Amidst the panic, Bitcoin hit more than 40,000 US dollars to around 30,000 US dollars in one day, and the entire network closed out about 7 billion US dollars in 24 hours, setting a historical record at the time. The 5.19 collapse liquidated bulls, and about $7.56 billion in long leveraged positions were instantly washed away. However, over the next few days, in the midst of panic, a large number of traders frantically leveraged at the bottom to chase the sky. As a result, there was an extremely violent retaliatory backlash. According to K33 Research quoting Coinglass data, short positions of approximately $757 million in a single day were instantly washed away, making it the largest day for BTC perpetual short settlements in history. And that record was broken just yesterday. After the liquidation of top bears, the market is often polished for a few weeks, and the liquidation of top bears is often a sign that the mid-term phased bottom has been completely consolidated. Positions are cleared after deleveraging, and macro-liquidity is transferred to encryption, and it takes weeks of cold washing and energy in the middle. Will this time be the same? Bitcoin is currently around $69,200, and the 24-hour increase narrowed to 7.6% (as of the morning of August 20). Sentiment indicators are still hesitating: the fear and greed index is 46, which is still in the fear zone; the probability that Bitcoin will reach 70,000 this month on the Polymarket has jumped to about 70% from before the surge. Axel Rudolph, IG's chief technical analyst, observes: Bitcoin is moving towards $70,000, driven by bears' recovery, indicating that buyers are...

2d agoburnking#Bitcoin

Galaxy Research: Q2 crypto lending market contracted 16.8% month-on-month, but deleveraging process was “orderly and moderate”

In comparison, Galaxy Research released the Q2 2026 crypto leverage market report, showing that total crypto collateral loans fell 16.78% month-on-month to $56.16 billion, down 40.13% from the 2025 Q3 high of US$78.69 billion. Among them, DeFi loans contracted 27.61% month-on-month to $20.43 billion, and CeFi loans fell 9.62% month-on-month to $22.98 billion. This is the first time since Q3 of 2023 that CeFi has surpassed DeFi in size. Tether still dominates the CeFi market with a 58.54% share. According to the report, the key difference between current deleveraging and the previous bear market is the “orderly and moderate” pace: falling only 10%, 5%, and 17% for three consecutive quarters, rather than a 2022 cliff-style collapse of over 55% in a single quarter. In the futures market, Q2 unliquidated contracts fell slightly by 3.08% month-on-month to US$103.2 billion, but in July they rebounded to around US$114 billion. In terms of institutional corporate debt, Strategy completed a $1.5 billion debt repurchase in May, reducing the DAT industry's total outstanding debt to $161 billion. According to the report, if there is no drastic liquidation of the market or counterparty default, deleveraging is expected to continue the gradual decline model.

4d ago

SanDisk completed a 63% rebound in two weeks, outperforming Micron and Hynix by 26.8 and 30.2 percentage points respectively

Comparative news, according to TradingBeats monitoring, based on the lowest prices of each item on Hyperliquid around July 29, the current round of storage rebound was clearly leading: SNDK hit a low of $970.74 in the early morning of July 30 and is now reported at $1587.8, with a cumulative rebound of 63.6%; MU hit a low of $705.76 during the same period, and now reports $965, with a cumulative rebound of 36.7%; SKHX at The midday low hit $879.4 on July 29 and is now reported at $1173.1, with a cumulative rebound of 33.4%. According to calculations, SanDisk outperformed Micron and SK Hynix by about 26.8 and 30.2 percentage points, respectively. In the past 24 hours, SNDK has risen again by 18.8%, while MU and SKHX have risen 6.8% and 6.4% respectively over the same period, and the gap between strength and weakness continues to widen. The focus of transactions has also begun to shift to SanDisk. SNDK's nearly 24-hour turnover was around $695 million, surpassing SKHX's $601 million, and 3.7 times MU's $189 million. Although SKHX has accumulated transactions of about US$12.19 billion since July 28, which is still the highest of the three, the short-term trading market recently switched to SNDK. Using the morning snapshot of July 31 after the initial deleveraging of the rebound ended, the value of SNDK's open contracts increased by 56.4% from about US$118 million to US$184 million; SKHX increased by 36.7% from US$361 million to US$493 million; and MU fell from US$166 million to US$142 million, a decrease of 14.4%. Excluding the impact of price increases, SNDK's actual number of open contracts increased by about 18.8%, down from SKHX's 26.6%; MU declined by 27.9%. This means that SanDisk's leading edge comes more from price increases and concentration of transactions, and SKHX is still the most aggressive in leveraged expansion of the three. The on-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats are now online. It supports real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from address traceability to giant whale operations, and in-depth analysis at a glance.

8d ago

As soon as US stocks stopped falling, capital went crazy rising -- Wall Street was suddenly wary

Source: Wall Street News Author: Xu Chao Original title: After the sharp fall in July, capital surged again, and the “panic index” of US stocks plummeted. Wall Street began to be wary. The strong rebound in US stocks created a calm image of a sharp drop in volatility, but Wall Street is sounding the alarm: the options market is now “biblical” and distorted. Under ostensible prosperity, the market position structure is extremely weak. As Nvidia's earnings report and the central bank's annual meeting approach, any external catalyst could set off a severe one-sided storm at any time. US stocks rebounded strongly from sharp deleveraging in July. Investors scrambled to catch up, and volatility indicators quickly fell back to a near-calm level. However, Wall Street traders and strategists are warning that under surface calm, the market structure already conceals fragility, and any external catalyst could trigger a rapid, self-reinforcing directional shock. The VIX Index plummeted from a July high of around 21 points to around 15 points — a level that has historically been on par with absolute calm in the market. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs's internal panic index plummeted from 7.9 at the end of July to less than 1, hitting its lowest point since June 2024. Bloomberg market strategist Jan-Patrick Barnert pointed out that the position structure left over after large-scale deleveraging last month makes the market extremely vulnerable to dramatic changes in direction caused by mechanical capital flows before important risk events such as upcoming inflation data, Nvidia earnings reports, and the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting. The three Wall Street trading platforms gave a nearly consistent description of the current August market: investors are selectively chasing the rise, but not out of full faith. Fundamentals may provide support for current index points, but market sentiment is far from being fully optimistic. Traces left by the rise: the options market is now “biblically” distorted. After the severe deleveraging round in July, buyers' institutional positions were generally light, but it just happened to have hit one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent years. At the same time, the market rotated, and stocks outside the AI sector and high-quality AI targets both became the core of risk taking. Charlie McEligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities, said that “customers were caught off guard” and immediately began to rise. The evidence of this upward movement is not reflected in price trends, but is clearly imprinted in the options market: call options are being snapped up, and as the index soars away from everyone's hedging price, put options quickly lose value. McEligott described the resulting skewed bias as “biblical level.” Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index's 25-Delta bullish option bias fell to the lowest level in history in January, and the S&P 500 bullish options volume simultaneously reached record highs. Over the past week, the achieved volatility was significantly higher on rising days than on falling days — the only thing the market seemed to worry about was shorting subsequent gains. The volatility of individual stocks has been destroyed, and the risk behind the calm has not been eliminated. Volatility at the individual stock level has been erased on a large scale in the process. Goldman Sachs derivatives and capital flow expert Lee Coppersmith pointed out that the average monthly implied volatility of NASDAQ 100 constituent stocks fell 9.1 percentage points within three trading days, and the decline of S&P 500 constituent stocks also reached 6 percentage points. Coppersmith said, “In the AI era, we have seen larger fluctuations, only the fluctuation shock in August 2024 and the tariff incident in April 2025. “At that time, VIX broke through 60 points. However, in the past month, the highest point of VIX reached only about 21 points, then quickly fell back. However, this is probably where the trouble lies. Goldman Sachs's internal panic indicators have certainly fallen to a low point, but a non-farm payroll report showing employment losses of 23,000 people, US bond yields hovering around 4.7%, the latest episode of the yen intervention, and the unresolved Iran conflict all together form a picture of macroeconomic risks that should not be underestimated. Financial data is impressive, but the macroeconomic background is far from confirming that everything is improving. AI is no longer an overall position, but a stock selection list at the index level. The overall exposure seems to have completely changed to risk appetite. But underneath the surface, skepticism still exists. Artificial intelligence trading is still the core of the market, but the basket of leading thematic gains is fragmenting. Not all of the targets that were hit hard in July experienced a strong rebound — memory chip stocks are a typical example. Nick Savone, Global Head of Equity Advisory and Client Services at Morgan Stanley, wrote: “This may be a broader revelation of a week of familiar trading regaining life without simply returning to the old script. The degree of diversification is still extremely high, and deleveraging in July...

9d ago22#US stocks

CryptoQuant founder: Bitcoin futures leverage is still high, ETF and DAT have become the main structured purchases

Comparing news, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju wrote that Bitcoin OG traders have just experienced the most profitable cycle in history. Unlike in the past, crypto trading platform traders were not the main exiting liquidity in this cycle; ETFs and DAT (digital asset reserve companies) were the main buyers. This structured buying boosted Binance traders' unrealized profits to nearly three times the top of the 2021 cycle. He said that the current Bitcoin price range is similar to that of two years ago, and the market is in the deleveraging phase. A large amount of unrealized profits accumulated during this cycle flowed into futures leverage. As traders' profits are settled, the BTC price has now stabilized near the average cost base of Binance traders. Ki Young Ju also pointed out that the on-chain market leverage ratio (BTC/USDT futures holdings divided by USDT reserves) previously exceeded 0.5 and is currently around 0.3, which is still higher than the level before the ETF was launched. Futures leverage is expected to rise again if ETF funds continue to flow in. Furthermore, he recalled that the OG giant whale made large-scale purchases in 2023 when BTC was close to $1.6 million, and the buyer/seller ratio showed that a large number of long market positions were established near the bottom of the cycle.

9d ago

Hash Global: Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end

Source: X Author: Jessica Feng (Hash Global BNB Fund Investment Manager), Henry Yang (Hash Global Investment Partner) Original title: Hash Global: Bitcoin hasn't risen yet, why are we starting to think the bear market might be over? Abstract: Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $62,000 and $65,000 for nearly two months, but on-chain chips have been reshuffled: more than 2.4 million BTC has been deposited in the $610,000 to $65,000 range. Concentration is rare, and a new bottom is being formed. Similar chip structures in history have predicted subsequent market trends. Changes in kinetic energy take precedence over price. Now is the time to enter the next round of cycle layout. Over the past six months, the popularity of AI has absorbed almost all of the market's attention, and even Crypto's last belief, Bitcoin, has been drastically shaken. Since falling below $70,000 in February, BTC has stepped back into the $58,000-$60,000 range three times. Strategy, an old player in the industry, began selling coins, and mining companies turned to AI. The prospects for the industry were bleak, and it also made the fears real time by time. While US stocks continued to rise and gold bottomed out, Crypto seemed to be forgotten by the world: BTC had been trading sideways between $62,000 and $65,000 for almost two months, and the 30-day implied volatility dropped to 36%, setting a multi-year low. The lack of vitality makes it difficult for the public to be optimistic about the market. But what we've been paying more attention to recently is “change” and “perspective,” that is, behind the price, the changes that are taking place in the market. The forces that weighed down the market in the early stages are weakening one by one: macro-austerity expectations have cooled down, the strategic lightning crisis has abated, and the outflow of institutional capital has stopped. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's on-chain chips are gathering again in the midst of consolidation. Everything seems to indicate that an inflection point is approaching, but these changes are not yet reflected in prices, as the market is waiting for more clear signals. Outside the market, AI transactions are cooling down, and a new round of capital switching is about to begin; in the market, the old OGs are still waiting for the last drop and slow to take action — the calm and quiet surface at the moment has just opened up the best angle and timing for us to enter. It is difficult to predict when the market will start, but what is certain is that we are entering the time window for the next round of layout. 1. Under the impression that the price has not changed, the chip structure has been reshuffled. The new bottom is forming a new bottom where BTC has tested the $60,000 mark three times, and has been clearly accepted each time. The price then rebounded to around $65,000, upward selling pressure reappeared, and the market fluctuated repeatedly between $63,000 and $65,000. On the face of it, the price has hardly changed, but on-chain chips have quietly completed a round of redistribution. Currently, more than 2.4 million BTC has been deposited in the $610,000 to $65,000 range, accounting for about 12% of the circulating supply; of these, around $63,000 alone, more than 1 million BTC has been collected, accounting for about 5.2% of the circulating supply. The concentration of chips has risen to a historically rare level. This change is more worthy of attention than short-term ups and downs. The bottom did not appear suddenly, but was “bought” by the market in repeated tug-of-war: some people left the market, others took over; old chips were constantly replaced, and new capital re-established the cost base at a lower position. As more BTC is concentrated in similar price ranges, a new price consensus has also been established. As a result, changes in kinetic energy often precede prices. Looking back at history, from May to November 2024, BTC also experienced a half-year adjustment after the ETF market. Before pulling from $60,000 to $100,000, the chain also had a highly concentrated structure around $50,000 to $60,000. In hindsight, the bottom of the construction at the time was a springboard for the subsequent launch of the market. History won't simply be repeated, but a similar chip structure indicates that the market is experiencing a round of similar bottom changes. 2. Directional choices are coming. The forces suppressing the market are being disrupted, and the concentration of chips represents an intensification of the game. The market is about to make a choice, but this is not enough to indicate the direction. What really tilts the balance upward is that several forces that previously drove the market decline are weakening. 1. Macro pressure is falling, and the risk of interest rate hikes has been reduced. The most important driving factor behind this round of adjustments is market concerns about higher interest rates. The geopolitical conflict boosted inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve sent hawkish signals, US bond yields and the US dollar strengthened, and risk assets naturally came under pressure. Recently, however, this logic of pricing high interest rates has begun to loosen. US CPI fell 0 month-on-month in June...

9d ago22#Bitcoin

Leveraged ETF assets fell to $154 billion last month, Citadel Securities says systemic funding may be re-leveraged

Comparatively speaking, Scott Rubner, head of stock and derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, said that the US stock leverage reset has basically been completed, and as volatility declines, the room for systemic strategies to re-increase stock exposure is expanding. The breadth of market gains is improving, and the correlation is close to historic lows, while investors are increasingly willing to pay a premium for the upside. The next round of substantial mechanical capital flow is likely to be re-leveraged rather than continued deleveraging. According to Citadel Securities data, the asset management scale of leveraged ETFs has declined from US$218 billion at the end of June to US$154 billion in July, of which the asset size of semiconductor leveraged ETFs is about US$31 billion. Other Wall Street agencies have observed similar trends. The Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage team said that after experiencing record deleveraging at the end of July, the fund began recovering capital and re-buying global stocks last week.

10d ago

The most volatile phase of Korean stocks may have ended, and the volatility fell back to a two-month low after “deleveraging”

Comparing news, the worst phase of the South Korean stock market turmoil may be over. Previously, historic sell-offs had eliminated leveraged positions, and regulatory restrictions also led to a sharp drop in transactions in some high-risk products. Last week, the South Korean stock market volatility index fell to a two-month low, having previously reached a record high in June. This stable situation has benefited from mandatory liquidation, which helps reduce outstanding margin debt; at the same time, stricter regulation of leveraged ETFs has also reduced the trading volume and asset size of products related to chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. These signs suggest that some of the surplus funds from the sharp fluctuations in local stock markets, which were previously exacerbated by leverage, have now been cleared. Morgan Stanley estimates that the deleveraging process is more than half complete. The KOSPI index fell nearly 40% from its June high, and global funds have sold more than $100 billion of Korean stocks this year, weakening the position of emerging market funds in the country.

13d ago

Survivor bias or real skill? How do you read the July report card for quantitative products?

Author: Huohuo Original title: Apart from stock fund losses, how did other hedge funds perform in July? In the last week of July, AI-themed fund Situational Awareness sold most of its public shares to major hedge fund Citadel. According to an investor letter seen by Reuters on July 31, the fund's portfolio value fell 67% that month. Five days later, Citadel's equity-focused fund rose 14.2% in July, according to investor information quoted by Reuters on August 5. In the same round of AI stock retracement, one fund was deleveraged under financing pressure, and the other took over some of its open positions. This statement is only half true. In the July return report, there were systematic products that recorded positive returns, as well as samples of position adjustments after technology holdings declined. If you put them all in the word “quantify,” you'll lose the most important differences. Can this rise represent the quantitative industry? According to Business Insider, the products named this time are from 5 managers. The 7 systemized products it lists are just a limited return slip, not a quantitative survey of the industry. In this small list, Renaissance Institutional Equities, the quantitative investment agency Renaissance Technology, or RIEF for short, rose 9.2% in July. Among the products listed in the same report, Qube's Torus strategy was the only one to close. The blue columns on the picture are very neat, but I can't draw conclusions for the entire industry. Where this set of numbers is really useful is to pull “quantification” from abstract labels back to specific products. RIEF, Renaissance Technology's Institutional Diversified Alpha, and Two Sigma's Absolute Return Enhanced, the media report did not disclose their model, asset scope, and risk budget. What the outside world can see is the monthly returns quoted by the media. Positive monthly returns cannot be automatically translated as “machines understand the market better.” It only shows that during that month, these systems recorded positive returns. In the same month, the classification index also split Business Insider's multi-strategy fund scorecard, and most products closed down in July. Hedge fund data platform BarclayShedge's estimates for the same period showed that the multi-strategy classification index rose 0.60%. The two readings do not contradict each other; they draw different samples and have different statistical calibers. The numbers on the BarclayShedge page only cover the data already submitted at the time, and will be adjusted as subsequent funds continue to be reported. It is more suitable for answering “what kind of strategy is under pressure”; it is not suitable for labeling a private equity fund. According to BarclayShedge's estimates, the technology hedge classification index fell 3.99% in July, while convertible bond arbitrage rose 1.46%. In the same month, there was a clear difference in monthly performance in categories such as long-term equity bias and convertible bond arbitrage. This classification table reminds readers that every return should be read back into the specific strategy label. This also explains why “Multiple Strategies Are Generally Stalled” cannot be written too fully. Business Insider's sample has newsworthy, and BarclayShedge's index has its coverage. Both should be read within their respective boundaries. Is a sharp increase in one month the same as the year's results? Not necessarily. According to Business Insider, RIEF's July performance was the most impressive, but the annual return as of the end of July was only 4.5%. The report described this round of gains as making up for the previous six months of losses. The same report also showed that hedge fund manager Graham Capital's Tactical Trend strategy had a return of 23.7% during the year, but the monthly increase was not as impressive as RIEF. Although London quantitative agency Qube's Torus Strategy closed down in the month, the return for the year was still around 18%. Monthly rankings and yearly rankings were placed on the same chart, and positions were quickly changed. This picture isn't proving that the two sets of numbers are independent of each other. Returns from the beginning of the year to the end of July originally included July. It just reminds readers that the monthly leaderboard is like a snapshot. After the camera is lengthened, the trend and ranking will change together. In addition to the ranking, there is also an asset sale Reuters reported on July 31 that Si...

15d agoburnking#AI #financing