套利 · 2540

Bitunix Analyst: US Fiscal Deficit Pushes Term Premium Higher, Crypto Market Faces Liquidity Test

Comparatively, the yield on 10-year US bonds once rose to 4.75%, a record high since January 2025, while the 20-year yield rose to about 5.28%. Long-term US bonds continued to be pressured to sell off. The core of this rise in yield is not only the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate expectations, but the market is re-evaluating America's long-term fiscal deficit, inflation risk, and term premium. The size of US Treasury bonds is close to $40 trillion, and the fiscal deficit continues to widen, meaning that the government must rely on a larger supply of bonds to absorb market capital. When investors require higher yield to take on long-term US debt, the impact is not only on government financing costs, but also on simultaneously increasing capital costs for enterprises, mortgages, and overvalued assets. In other words, rising long-term yield rates are gradually becoming a pricing constraint for the entire financial market. This is also an important reason why tech stock valuations have come under pressure recently. AI and semiconductor companies still have strong profit growth, but as risk-free interest rates continue to rise and future cash flow discount rates increase simultaneously, valuation premiums for high-growth companies must be recalculated. The minutes of the July meeting of the Joint Committee are therefore even more important. Three officials supported interest rate hikes at the time, and the market will now look for more signals about inflation, the extent of policy restrictions, and differences within the committee. If the record is hawkish, it will further reinforce the expectation that high interest rates will last for a long time; conversely, if the internal situation continues to wait for more economic data, it may reduce the pressure on short-term interest rates, but it may not immediately resolve the fiscal pricing issue of long-term US bonds. Changes in global capital costs are also being reflected in Japan and Switzerland. Mizuho believes that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in September as soon as possible, or even gradually increase the frequency of interest rate hikes; the normalization of interest rates in Japan means that the cost advantage of the yen as a global financing currency has declined further. In contrast, Switzerland currently maintains zero interest rates, and the Swiss franc may become a new financing currency for some arbitrage transactions. This is not simply a change in exchange rates; global arbitrage funds are re-selecting the cheapest funding source. For the crypto market, the impact of this environment is more immediate. Although Bitcoin has medium- to long-term demand from ETFs and institutional capital, it is still an asset that is highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity, real interest rates, and risk appetite in the short term. As long-term US bond yields continue to rise and the opportunity cost of global capital increases, highly valued stocks and crypto assets will face higher capital competition. Therefore, what is currently most noteworthy is not a single interest rate forecast, but rather whether there is a divergence between Fed policy interest rates and long-term US bond yields.

3d ago

Maya Protocol attacked: Approximately $1.7 million was stolen due to six serial vulnerabilities, and the funding pool shrunk by $11 million

Comparatively, the cross-chain liquidity protocol Maya Protocol was attacked on August 18. The attackers used six serial software vulnerabilities to create false account balances and steal about 20.83 BTC (about $1.34 million) and other assets from the protocol's fund pool, with a total direct loss of about $1.65 million. The incident caused the MayaChain network to suspend trading, and its token CACAO plummeted almost 89% from $0.115 to $0.013 before recovering to around $0.03. Technical review shows that the attack began when MayaChain misjudged that a transaction was lost and triggered a compensation mechanism, but the mechanism miscalculated and added about 49 million CACAO to a small pool of funds, while the agreement reserve was only about 168,000 CACAO. After the transfer failed, the system mistakenly saved a new balance. The attackers then deposited a very small amount into the fund pool, obtained more than 99% of the pool's share, and immediately withdrawn 48.87 million CACAO, which were then exchanged for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets. As a result of the incident, the total value of Maya Protocol's pool decreased by about $10.9 million, of which about $6.4 million was due to the depreciation of CACAO and about $2.9 million from arbitrage transactions. The team said they hope the attackers will return the funds in the form of bug bounties, otherwise they will make up for losses through channels such as Aztec Chain investments. Maya Protocol has yet to announce when it will resume trading. The incident once again exposed the security risks in the complex logic of DeFi protocols.

3d ago#On-chain dynamics

The founder of Maya Protocol revealed that the protocol was attacked and that it lost approximately $1.7 million

In comparison, Maya Protocol founder AaluxxMyth revealed that the protocol was attacked, and about 20 BTC (about $1.4 million) and other assets (about $300,000) were stolen. The team has suspended global operations to control losses and is fixing bugs to resume trading. Most of the losses came from arbitrage and pool fees due to extreme slippage. The team is communicating with relevant parties and plans to recover the funds through Aztec Chain investments and other methods. If 20 BTC are returned to the pool, the CACAO token price will return to $0.115. The team also wants the attackers to accept bug bounties and return the funds.

3d ago

After two years of sleep, the giant whale borrowed $153 million in WETH arbitrage and ended up only $0.36

Comparative news, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a cryptocurrency giant whale that has been dormant for nearly two years recently became active, borrowing 81.64 million WETH worth about US$153.6 million from decentralized lending protocols Morpho and Spark to execute arbitrage transactions. However, this large deal did not bring significant returns. According to on-chain data, the arbitrage operation generated only $1.88 in revenue, paid a processing fee of $1.53, and the final net profit was only $0.36. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

6d agoburnking

Solana yield protocol Paystream announces closure and liquidation

According to Twitter, Paystream, a protocol focused on on-chain earnings on Solana, announced the closure and liquidation on August 15. Founder Maushish said that the project has gone through many transformations, from the P2P loan agreement born at the hackathon, to the LP management terminal, to the perpetual contract funding rate arbitrage tool (Funding Rate Farmer). The latter was actually used. Users opened 185 positions and deployed a security deposit of 232,000 US dollars. The project was funded through MetaDAO, and a proposed restructuring in May drastically cut the remaining capital. The team was reduced from 6 to 1, and subsequent attempts to build automated treasury and payroll compliance products were unsuccessful. The team decided to stop operations, open source the capital rate arbitrage filter code, and announce the details of the liquidation proposal through MetaDAO.

7d ago

Bitunix analyst: PPI cooling reduces pressure to raise interest rates, but core prices and long-term bond supply still limit interest rate space

Comparatively, the monthly PPI rate in the US unexpectedly remained flat in July, and the annual growth rate fell to 4.7%. Coupled with the simultaneous cooling of the CPI announced the day before, it shows that the fall in energy prices is easing inflationary pressure on the production side, and the market's bet on the interest rate hike in September has also dropped from about 50% to about 35% to 40%. However, after excluding food, energy, and trade services, the core final demand PPI increased by 0.4% per month, indicating that the underlying price pressure has not completely subsided; the number of people receiving initial unemployment benefits has risen to 209,000, which also reflects some signs of cooling down in the job market. What is really noteworthy is that cooling inflation has not simultaneously solved America's long-term financing problems. The US 30-year Treasury note was auctioned for $25 billion at a bid interest rate of 5.216%, the highest issuance yield since 2001. In an environment where there is a high fiscal deficit, an increase in the supply of treasury bonds, and the Federal Reserve is no longer the main buyer, long-term US bonds require a higher maturity premium to absorb supply, which means that capital costs for the US economy will not necessarily fall rapidly as short-term inflation cools down. Meanwhile, after Japan interfered with the yen, the dollar once again approached 160 against the yen. Instead, some arbitrage traders used the yen's rebound after the intervention to re-establish financing transactions. As long as the spread between the US and Japan still exists, it will be difficult for the yen to lose its appeal as a low-cost financing currency. If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates or intervenes again in the future, it may lead to higher exchange rate and leverage fluctuations. Overall, the July inflation data does provide more room for observation, but this does not mean that financial conditions will ease quickly. While short-term interest rate pressure is falling, the US fiscal deficit, long-term bond supply, energy prices, and yen arbitrage may still affect asset pricing through long-term yield rates and global capital costs. For the market, what really matters next is not a single inflation data, but whether inflation can continue to cool down and whether long-term capital costs can fall at the same time.

8d ago

Arbitrage traders use Japan's bailout to rebuild short positions in yen, USD/JPY may retest 162

Comparing news, the effect of the Japanese authorities' intervention in the foreign exchange market to boost the yen is being challenged. Market data shows that arbitrage traders are using the opportunity of each round of yen rebound to re-establish short positions, creating a cycle where intervention pushes the yen higher and traders go short. Earlier, the joint intervention of the US and Japan briefly boosted the yen's appreciation, but less than two weeks later, the dollar once again approached 160 against the yen. For arbitrage traders, official intervention instead provided a better selling price for yen. This trading logic is mainly based on interest spread advantages: investors borrow low-interest yen and then allocate high-yield assets. As long as the yen does not continue to appreciate, interest rate spread income can cover part of the exchange rate risk. As of August 4, hedge fund short positions in yen have been reduced by about half, but some institutions are re-establishing arbitrage transactions using yen as the financing currency. Market data shows that USD/JPY has recovered from around 157 to 159.43. Some traders believe that if there is no significant decline in US dollar and US yields, arbitrage trading may push the dollar to retest 162 against the yen. It was previously revealed that the Japanese authorities may use tens of billions of dollars to support the yen by the end of July, of which the scale of intervention in a single day may reach about 53 billion US dollars, setting a record. However, large-scale intervention has not stopped the yen from approaching 160, indicating that market concerns about the Japan-US gap and Japan's fiscal pressure are still dominant. Currently, the market is watching the Bank of Japan's next policy move. Traders are betting that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September or October, but analysts believe that as long as interest rates in Japan are still significantly lower than in major economies such as the US, arbitrage transactions funded in yen may continue.

8d ago

Behind Hermes' rise to the top: A Web3 team's path to advancement

Author: Jacob Zhao Original title: IOSG Weekly Brief | Behind Hermes's rise to the top: A Web3 team's path to advancement The phenomenal growth of #340Hermes did not stem from OpenClaw's exclusive technology that cannot be replicated in principle, but because it most accurately closed a “challenger growth system” during the critical window of individual agent category formation: taking over OpenClaw's already educated and mature user pool to establish “delegability” ( (Incurable Trust) This difference in experience is more real than the “self-evolution” narrative. As professional execution agents become more and more powerful, users still need a manager who is online for a long time and is worth entrusting. Open OpenRouter's public application rankings. Hermes Agent ranked first on all platforms with 30.5 trillion token usage, and also ranked first in the four categories of Productivity, Coding Agents, Personal Agents, and CLI Agents, leading well-known agents such as OpenClaw and Claude Code in a cliff-style manner. ▲ Figure 1 · Hermes Agent's historical data snapshot on OpenRouter (taken on August 4, 2026, dynamic page data will change over time) Although OpenRouter's statistical caliber cannot cover industry-wide token consumption directly connected to official APIs (such as Claude or Codex native subscriptions), as the world's largest AI model routing and aggregation platform, its list has strong “weather vane” significance. Although at the level of high-end professional tasks, the core business workflows of many users — complex code generation, architecture design, and high-value data analysis — still flow to Claude Code and ChatGPT, Hermes maintains an advantage in use scenarios such as back-office automation, message entry response, long-term online monitoring, and lightweight task scheduling. As an Agent product created by the Web 3 team, Hermes has achieved far more successful dissemination, community, and usage intensity than expected. We can't help but pay attention to: · Why can Hermes surpass OpenRouter inference calls? · What is the real field between it and OpenClaw? · How does Hermes maintain “differentiated coexistence” rather than “head-on competition” in the relationship with Claude Code and Codex? From development frameworks to personal AI systems — the path of OpenClaw why did the early Agent framework not produce consumer products. Before the advent of OpenClaw, the agent field had mature infrastructure, but there were fundamental limitations: the unit used was a “development project enterprise workflow” rather than an “individual user.” The common characteristics of early frameworks were developer-facing, outputting code, or configuration—they built the Agent's infrastructure, but did not deliver the Agent itself. Too high engineering thresholds have always been stuck in the “developer tool” stage, there is a lack of a closed loop of commercialization that transforms technology into “personal assets”, and the “personal agent product layer” directly aimed at end users is almost empty. ▲ Figure 1 · Six-layer structure of the Agent technology stack (model layer → protocol layer → SDK development framework layer → execution infrastructure layer → deployment governance layer) ▲ Figure 1 · Historical data snapshot of Hermes Agent in OpenRouter (taken on August 4, 2026, dynamic page data will change over time) What did OpenClaw really change? OpenClaw did not reinvent Agent Loop or task scheduling technology at the bottom. Its core contribution is systematic packaging at the product level. LangChain solved “how to build an agent”, while OpenClaw solved “how to own an agent”. It skips the middle layer of the technology stack, integrates scattered framework capabilities into a complete product that individuals can directly configure and use for a long time, and realizes a fundamental shift in adoption units from “development projects” to “individuals”...

9d agoburnking#agent #Hermes #WEB3

Bitunix Analyst: CPI gives the market breathing room, but high deficits, yen and energy risks still drive up long-term capital costs

Comparing news, the US CPI increased 0.1% monthly and 3.4% per year in July, and the core CPI increased 2.5% per year. Overall inflation performance was moderate, and the decline in energy prices also offset the upward pressure on some housing costs. After the data was released, the market's pricing for the Fed's September rate hike was reduced from about 50% to around 40%, and short-term policy pressure eased somewhat. But this CPI was insufficient to directly translate into loose expectations. The US fiscal deficit is still widening. The cumulative deficit for the first 10 months was close to 1.8 trillion US dollars, the size of treasury bonds was close to 40 trillion US dollars, and interest expenses continued to rise. In this context, the US needs to continue to issue a large number of treasury bonds, and the yield on 10-year US bonds has risen to a high level since 2007, and the 30-year yield is closer to 5.25%, reflecting the fact that long-term capital costs are driven by a combination of fiscal supply, inflationary stickiness, and market risk premiums. Therefore, the key to the current US interest rate market is not only whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, but whether long-term yields will continue to rise due to fiscal deficits and treasury bond supply even if the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged. This also means that financial conditions will not necessarily improve at the same time as policy interest rates fall. For overvalued and highly leveraged assets, long-term returns are still an important source of pressure. On the Asian side, the yen once again approached the 160 mark, and Japan's PPI increased 7.2% year on year in July, heating up expectations for the Bank of Japan's September rate hike. If Japan's monetary policy is further normalized and the Japan-US spread narrows, global capital allocation and Japanese yen arbitrage transactions may be affected. Gold, on the other hand, has benefited from reduced risk at the end of interest rate hikes, the weakening dollar, and renewed support from fiscal uncertainty, but it is currently closer to a tactical rebound driven by interest rate expectations rather than a simple interest rate cut transaction. Subsequent Jackson Hole meetings, inflation and employment data will still determine whether the gold market can continue. On the other hand, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is bringing energy and food supply risks back to the global market. Russia and Ukraine have continued to attack Black Sea ports, energy facilities, and commercial vessels recently. Ukraine is in the peak season for grain exports. If Black Sea shipping is further disrupted, it may boost the prices of wheat and related food, and also complicate the risk of energy inflation that already exists. Overall, the July CPI reduced the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates immediately, but it did not remove the capital cost constraints created by America's high deficit, high debt, and high long-term returns. Next, the core of global asset pricing will gradually focus on the two forces of whether inflation continues to cool down and whether fiscal supply pushes up long-term interest rates. For highly volatile assets such as Bitcoin, in the short term, we still need to focus on US dollar liquidity and long-term yield on US bonds, rather than just observing the Fed's policy interest rate itself.

9d ago

[Comparative Daily News Picks] DeepSeek V4 Pro official API update: multiple test performance is close to Fable 5; SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.6, which is the same as GPT-5.6 Sol Max; Bitcoin mining company MARA secured 18,750 BTC to obtain a loan of 750 million US dollars to expand AI and energy infrastructure; the US core inflation performance in July was moderate, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates eased somewhat

Daily AI · Cryptography · Macro · Market News, Bitpush helps you draw the key points ↓ AI · News [DeepSeek V4 Pro Official API Update: Multiple Test Performance Close to Fable 5] Tweet news. On August 13, Beijing time, DeepSeek officially changed the v4 Pro from the preview version. On the official pricing page, the model version number has been updated to DEEPSEEK-V4-PRO-0813. As can be seen from the evaluation comparison table released by the official group, the official version of DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek V4-PRO-0813) was close to the Fable 5 level in many tests, and the capabilities of the previous preview version were greatly improved. DeepSeek V4 Pro is significantly more expensive than V4-Flash. Based on the calculation for each 1M token, 0.025 yuan is entered in the cache hit, 3 yuan is entered in the cache mismatch, and 6 yuan is output. In comparison, V4-Flash is 0.02 yuan, 1 yuan, and 2 yuan, respectively. [SpaceXAI launches GROK 4.6, same score as GPT-5.6 Sol Max] In comparison, SpaceXAI officially released the next generation model Grok 4.6, which scored 61 points in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index comprehensive evaluation, which is on par with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol Max. The model focuses on strengthening long-range operating agents, complex programming, and intellectual work capabilities. [Wall Street Journal: Apple Seeks New Agreements with Publishers to Use Their Content to Develop Artificial Intelligence Voice Assistant Siri] Comparing the news. According to the Wall Street Journal: Sources revealed, Apple (AAPL.O) is seeking a new agreement with publishers to develop Siri, an artificial intelligence voice assistant using its content. [SpaceX rose nearly 12% in the intraday period, and Damo is optimistic about its two structural advantages] Comparing news, SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose nearly 12% in the intraday period. The rise was driven by a Morgan Stanley research report, which believes the open market has seriously underestimated the value of the SpaceX AI enterprise platform. Investors are no longer viewing SpaceX only as an aerospace and satellite hardware company, but increasingly as a vertically integrated technology giant with autonomous data, global network infrastructure, and cutting-edge AI models. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said that recent products launched by the SpaceXAI division show a broader software ecosystem, of which GrokBot is early evidence of this platform. The platform combines unique real-time data, vertically integrated computing power, connectivity, and intelligence, and these values are currently not fully priced in the market. The report points out that SpaceX has two structural advantages: one is a real-time data pipeline formed from telemetry data from X and Starlink satellite networks; the other is a “real world” moat combining low-cost computing power with global communication networks. Musk previously said that Grok 4.7 will surpass all current models, and that SpaceX's unique and powerful training data gives it an advantage in real-world engineering capabilities. Crypto · Market [Bitcoin mining company MARA secures $750 million in loans to expand AI and energy infrastructure] Comparing news, Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings disclosed in SEC documents for the latest quarter that the company has pledged 18,750 BTC to guarantee two Bitcoin mortgage loans, with a total loan principal of 750 million US dollars. The additional capital will be used mainly for general corporate purposes and support MARA's acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power. The deal is worth approximately $1.5 billion, and Long Ridge owns a gas power plant with an estimated installed capacity of 505 MW and more than 1,600 acres of industrial land in Ohio, USA. MARA plans to further develop the local area as a base for Bitcoin mining, AI, and high-performance computing infrastructure. [CFTC emergency order requires Kalshi to continue operating, citing the risk of closing Bitcoin positions] Comparing news, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requires that the forecasting market platform Kalshi continue to operate its exchange in accordance with normal business practices and “business...

9d agoWendy#Compare Daily Picks