熊市 · 4378

Grayscale: Bitcoin may have bottomed out, and this week's rise is a key sign of cycle reversal

Comparing the news, Grayscale wrote that this week could be a turning point for Bitcoin. Judging from historical data, Bitcoin usually bottoms out after falling about 80% from the top of the cycle. Meanwhile, in the recent round of the bear market, Bitcoin fell about 50% from the high point of the cycle. Up to this stage, its decline was less than in all previous cycles. Until now, the market has been discussing whether Bitcoin will experience a new round of decline in the fourth quarter of 2026. Although the market is still risky, this round of gains this week may indicate that Bitcoin has formed a more solid bottom.

1m ago

Analysis: This round of BTC's rise is accompanied by a decline in OI, and spot demand is showing for the first time

Comparing news, on-chain data analyst Murphy wrote that this round of BTC's rise was “a bit different”: the scale of futures liquidation reached a record, but unclosed positions (OI) declined at the same time. The price increase was mainly driven by short stop-loss or liquidated purchases to close positions. It was a liquidated stock position rather than a net exposure to newly opened leveraged positions. If it is driven only by liquidation, the price often falls back after being inserted; after this increase, the price stagnates, indicating that other spot funds have taken over. Murphy pointed out that if contract bulls lead, OI usually rises and rates rise, but this round of OI has almost completely declined, and no new leverage has entered the market on a large scale. The exchange's spot relative volume (SRV) reached 2.94 from August 19 to 20, which is about 3 times the average for nearly 30 days. Similar volumes in the past two years have mostly occurred during a downturn or a bull market. This is different from the situation where leverage was dominated by the rebound to about 96,000 US dollars in January and the rebound to about 82,000 US dollars in May. He stressed that spot demand is only the first potential sign since entering a bear market. Combined with price challenges to the short-term holder cost line (STH-RP) and the sellers' exhaustion index entering an extreme zone, it is not enough to determine a trend reversal.

10h ago

Jiang Zhuoer: 90% sure the bear market is over, ETH may outperform BTC in this round

Comparing news, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Libitt Mining Pool, wrote that his previous bearish judgment on the market was wrong. Currently, 90% are convinced that the bear market is over, and believes that this round of ETH will be the main driving force of the bull market, and the performance may surpass BTC. On the operational side, Jiang Zhuoer said that ETH previously sold at $1,738 to $1931 had been bought back at a stop loss of $2,100, and sold 50% of the spot to try to peak when ETH rose to $2,525, and the stop loss was set at $2,550. As for the funds that are still in short supply, Jiang Zhuoer plans to buy all BTC if it falls back to the $67,000 to $72,000 range; otherwise, buy it at the current price by the end of October at the latest. He believes that compared to predicting the market, what is more important in trading is execution and risk control, that is, “hold the right, stop loss by mistake.”

11h ago

Galaxy Research: BTC reclaims 50-week EMA or marks the end of the bear market

On Twitter, according to an article by Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch), Bitcoin's 50-week moving average (currently around $82,000) is receiving a lot of attention from the market. Historical data shows that of the 6 completed bear markets, BTC has recovered the 50-week EMA on 13 occasions. Of these, 11 successfully marked the establishment of a bearish low, with a failure rate of only about 15%. In contrast, the 50-day EMA is noisy. Of the 6 bear markets, 43 of the 106 recoveries ended in failure, and the first 50-day EMA rebound of each bear market ended in failure. Galaxy Research notes that if BTC stabilizes at the 50-week EMA this week with a weekly closing price, historical experience indicates that the current bear market is likely to be over.

13h ago

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin may hit $12.6 million by the end of the year, and the previous target of $10 million was too conservative

Comparing news, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the forecast for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of the year may be too conservative, and the market is likely to challenge the historic high of $126,000 again before the end of the year. Geoff Kendrick said on Friday that the recent rise in Bitcoin was mainly driven by short liquidations, while cash inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have also begun to recover. Due to the low size of open positions in the current market, more investors may re-enter the market as prices rise, providing further impetus to the market. “For the first time this year, there was a risk that my year-end $100,000 forecast might be underestimated.” Kendrick said. Geoff Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound momentum may accelerate further after October 6. Meanwhile, many market participants also believe that the bear market may be nearing its end. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten (Cory Klippsten) previously stated that Bitcoin may bottom out in October; 10x Research founder Markus Thielen (Markus Thielen) believes that if August closes at $63,000, it may confirm the formation of a bear market bottom. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

The giant whale has set 10 major goals: Bitcoin will not go all the way up; in the medium term, it looks at $10 next March

Comparing the news, Giant Whale first set 10 targets and posted an article on the X platform stating that it had already opened a short order for 76,000 US dollars; in fact, the logic is quite simple. When I set up multiple orders around 63,000, the stage target was originally 74000. I think the bull market has returned, and this judgment has not changed until now. However, I have always thought that this round should be an upward shock. At least in terms of macro and market structure, I haven't seen enough signs to support this trend. At present, the vast majority of empty orders have been eliminated. It's not because I've changed my judgment; it's about controlling risk first. If the extreme upward trend continues here, 82000 and 84000 are all possible, so there is no need to take a full position and bet that your judgment must be correct. If the daily line is effectively above 80500, then I'll admit my mistakes, close all of them, and take a break for a while. If this place doesn't stand still in the end and weakens again, I'll consider adding back the empty orders that were removed. The giant whale first set 10 major goals and reiterated its mid-term views as follows: I am still bullish on BTC in the medium to long term, but there is no conflict between bullish in the medium to long term and partial shorting. I made this short order. What I saw was a correction in the upward process; I'm not looking at the bear market again here. If it's wrong, more than 80500 admits the error. I still think we'll see 100,000 BTC next March. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

Starkiller: A new round of bull market is starting, and all short positions were closed last month

Comparing news, crypto investment agency Starkiller recently posted that BTC has risen strongly in the past two days. Combined with market performance over the past month, the agency is highly confident that the digital asset cycle has bottomed out, and revealed that it has closed all short positions last month. Starkiller said that BTC and ETH previously experienced peak retracement of 54% and 70% respectively, and are now back on the 200-day EMA. This is the first time since the end of the previous cycle; their quantitative model also shows that after stabilizing near the 50-day EMA, BTC and ETH broke through volume and are back on VWAP since the beginning of the year. Furthermore, the current bear market cycle has continued for about 315 days, which is close to the historical average. Starkiller believes that the recent active promotion of digital asset market rules by US regulators and the expansion of long-term US bond repurchases by the US Treasury are important catalysts for the reversal of the market cycle. Although this is not quantitative easing, the Treasury's focus on long-term yields may improve the liquidity environment, and BTC is still highly dependent on liquidity. Regarding the new cycle, Starkiller believes that most traditional cryptographic native assets may not replicate previous bull market performance, and investors will pay more attention to real income and agreements that can return value to token holders after experiencing this round of market elimination. It is expected that assets with actual revenue or value capture mechanisms such as HYPE, LIT, PUMP, VVV, and DRV may receive more attention, while a large number of tokens lacking fundamental support may become shorting opportunities in the new upward cycle. Starkiller also said that BTC may experience a phased adjustment near $80,000 in the short term, a position close to the all-time high of VWAP. Despite this, the agency remains highly optimistic about stablecoins, asset tokenization, prediction markets, and on-chain perpetual contracts, and says it is already more optimistic about its long and short liquidity token strategy and DeFi market-neutral return strategy.

1d ago

Yi Lihua: Bitcoin has ended the bear market trend and will continue to be bullish for the next two weeks

Comparing news, Liquid Capital (former LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua wrote that after judging that the rebound ended in May, it has focused on one thing in the past two months, that is, July to August may be the last chance for BTC to bottom out in this round. With Bitcoin's daily level breaking through the 120-day EMA and 200-day EMA while the weekly level breaches the 20-week EMA, the BTC bear trend has officially come to an end. He said that the market is still bullish for the next two weeks, but there may still be a correction after rising to a certain position. The subsequent pullback will not exceed 50% of the increase. If investors use leverage, it is recommended to reduce multiple positions and refer to the weekly trend and correction margin during the 2023 upward cycle. Bitcoin fell from a high of $125,000 to $57,000 in the current round, with the biggest drop of about 56%. It believes that this decline has formed a cyclical low, and it will be difficult for subsequent markets to see the BTC price starting at $50,000 again.

1d ago

Well-known trader: The Bitcoin bear market has ended and is currently in the early stages of a bull market

Comparing news, well-known trader Doctor Profit said that Bitcoin's recent rise has broken through several key resistance zones, and believes that the current bear market is over and the market is entering the early stages of a bull market. Recently, BTC broke through 4 to 5 complete bear resistance zones in a single day, including the bear resistance bands it had previously focused on. He believes that this trend has weakened the market's doubts about the effectiveness of this indicator. He also pointed out that currently there are only a few key resistance areas that need to be broken through ahead of Bitcoin. If the breakthrough is completed, it will further confirm the start of the bull market cycle. He said that the market is currently in a transition phase from a bear market to a bull market. There are three price areas to focus on right now: $71,500, $78,000, and $82,000. Among them, $71,500 is currently the most important resistance level. If BTC can effectively stand in this area or form a weekly closing break, the key breakout will be confirmed. The $78,000 area is also in need of a breakout, and once the $82,000 area is breached, further room for a bullish upside will open up. Furthermore, the market recently experienced one of the largest Bitcoin short liquidations in history, and some investors previously missed layout opportunities because they believed in a four-year cycle or anticipated an August pullback.

1d ago