科技股 · 1305

Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

10h ago

J.P. Morgan warns of the risk of a fall pullback in US stocks, the AI boom may repeat the 2000 tech bubble

Comparing news, JPMorgan (JPMorgan) warned that although the world's major stock indexes are still on an upward trend, the market may face the risk of a pullback in late summer to early fall. The bank said that recently the internal structure of the US stock market is deteriorating, capital has begun to shift to defensive assets, and investors' confidence in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks has also weakened. Jason Hunter, a strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase, pointed out that the current AI trading boom is similar to the 1999-2000 tech stock bubble. The market's excessive concentration of positions in the technology sector may increase the risk of adjustment. Furthermore, the continued rise in US Treasury yields, geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and slowing consumer spending have also been identified by J.P. Morgan as potential sources of market pressure. J.P. Morgan believes that the current AI investment cycle still has potential for long-term growth, but market valuations, capital congestion, and investor expectations in the short term may put technology stocks at greater risk of volatility.

1d ago

US stocks opened higher, crypto concept stocks generally rose, HYPE Treasury rose more than 9%

Comparative news, when US stocks opened, the Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.4%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.4%. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, in terms of technology stocks, Micron Technology rose 1%, and the company's CEO said that currently customer demand exceeds the company's supply by about 50%. Broadcom rose 1.6%, and the company sought more than $60 billion in debt financing to provide chip infrastructure for AI companies. Crypto concept stocks are generally rising. Among them, HYPE treasury company PURR led the way, opening up more than 9%. MSTR is up 4.08% and BMNR is up 2.13%. COIN rose 5.52% and CRCL rose 6.35%. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

Druckenmiller's heavy RSP position sends a signal: US stocks may lead gains or spread from AI giants to a wider range of sectors

Comparing news, market analysts believe that legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently made extensive use of S&P 500 ETFs (RSP), which may bet that the market breadth (Market Breadth) of the US stock bull market is expanding. Druckenmiller has previously increased RSP to one of the key positions in its portfolio. Unlike the traditional S&P 500 index, which is weighted by market capitalization, RSP basically distributes S&P 500 constituent stocks on an average basis, so it is significantly less dependent on technology stocks with large market capitalization such as Nvidia and Microsoft. This configuration idea means that Druckenmiller may believe that there is still room for future growth in US stocks, but the forces driving the rise in the market will spread from the Big Seven + AI to more industries. Recently, RSP has continued to strengthen and reach new highs, which is also seen by the market as a sign of an improvement in market breadth. Judging from the direction of its recent holdings, housing, mortgages, small-cap stocks, automobiles, aviation, industry, materials, and overseas cycle assets are all involved. If long-term interest rates continue to fall and financial conditions are further relaxed in the future, market capital may shift from previously highly crowded AI leaders to interest rate sensitive and cyclical sectors such as Homebuilders, Mortgage, Small Caps, Regional Banks, Industrials, Materials, and Autos. This means that there may be a clear shift in style in US stocks in the next phase: QQQ and AI leaders may still rise, but the increase may not continue to lead, and old economic and interest-rate sensitive assets that have underperformed in the past few years may gain more flexibility.

1d ago

Goldman Sachs: The price of the September rate hike was hawkish, and the pressure on US stocks came from repeated interest rate expectations

Comparing news, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius believes in the latest opinion that the market's pricing of the September FOMC rate hike is still hawkish. The bank determined that unless there is a clear reversal in the August data released in early September, the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September 15-16 meeting is already very low. The reasons given by Goldman Sachs include: employment growth is clearly slowing down, consumption momentum is cooling down, and the inflation trend is more likely to continue improving. From Goldman Sachs's perspective, recent data is weakening the reasons for interest rate hikes. Potential employment growth in the US in July is said to be only about 5,000 people, lower than the level needed to maintain the balance of the labor market; weak retail sales mean that consumption growth may slow to 1% to 1.5% in the second half of the year; core PCE inflation is still expected to gradually decline and approach the 2% target in 2027. Hatzius believes that after two consecutive months of weak employment and inflation data, the threshold for dovish commissioners to switch to supporting interest rate hikes will be high. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting brought new disturbances to the market. The minutes of the July meeting released in the early morning of August 20, Beijing time showed that the number of officials supporting further tightening of the policy increased compared to June. Many officials believe that if inflation does not continue to cool down, higher interest rates may still be needed in the future. This makes it difficult for the market to directly bet on Goldman Sachs's interpretation of easing, and short-term interest rates and technology stock valuations will continue to be repeatedly affected by policy expectations.

2d ago

Legendary investor Cooperman is betting on the US recession next year: rising inflation may hit US stock valuations hard

In comparison, billionaire investor and Omega Advisors CEO Leon Cooperman warned this week that the US economy could fall into recession within the next year and drag down the stock market. He pointed out that the current market is similar to the collapse of the Pretty 50 in the 70s of the last century, and expressed concern about cooling AI optimism. In an interview with CNBC, Cooperman said: I think we will experience a recession sometime next year, which may cause the market to fall. At the same time, he believes that the market's expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth are biased (FactSet data shows that this quarter's year-on-year increase is expected to exceed 50%). Currently, he clearly deviates from mainstream Wall Street bullish views. In particular, he avoids technology stocks, and has a negative view of the overall market. He reminded investors not to underestimate the risk of inflation rebounding. Brent crude oil remained high after the Iran war (about $90 per barrel, more than 20% higher than before the war), and retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July (far lower than the 0.1% increase expected). Higher inflation or a blow to stock valuations is similar to the sharp decline in growth stocks after the rise in oil prices in the 70s. One of the most dangerous words in the field of investment is: “This time is different.” Cooperman said that the current market is almost generally bullish, and once a negative catalyst appears, investors may sell off quickly. At the same time, fluctuations in the bond market have intensified the pressure. The US 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33% on Tuesday, the highest since June 2007, and broke through a three-year trading range. Analysts warned that if yields rise rapidly to 6%, the stock market may face further pressure on valuations. Historically, after a similar trend in 1999, the S&P 500 then adjusted and the Internet bubble burst.

3d ago

Bloomberg: Changjiang Storage completes listing guidance or becomes China's next major chip IPO

Comparative news, according to Bloomberg reports, Chinese memory chip manufacturer Changjiang Storage (YMTC) has completed listing guidance work and is moving further ahead of entering the A-share market. According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission website, Changjiang Storage has completed pre-listing counseling and has been determined to have the corporate governance structure, financial foundation and internal control system required for listed companies. The market believes that YMTC is expected to replicate the capital market path of competitor Changxin Storage (CXMT), expand production capacity through IPO financing, and help China promote the autonomy of the semiconductor industry. Previously, Changxin Storage completed the second-largest IPO in mainland China, raising about 66.6 billion yuan. After listing, its stock price soared, and at one point it became one of the listed companies with the highest market capitalization in China. Both YMTC and CXMT are important companies in China's independent semiconductor supply chain. As demand for AI drives the tight supply of global memory chips, the two companies have received attention from the capital market, and related chip industry chain stocks have recently risen sharply. According to reports, Changjiang Storage's flash memory shipments in the second quarter of this year surpassed Japan's Kioxia (Kioxia) for the first time, becoming the third largest NAND flash memory supplier in the world, and further narrowing the market gap with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. However, the news that YMTC is moving ahead with its IPO has also raised concerns about liquidity in the market. Some investors believe that the listing of large technology companies may divert market capital, putting pressure on the short-term performance of technology stocks. On Wednesday, the SSE Science Innovation 50 Index fell 6.9%, the biggest drop in nearly a month.

3d ago

Bitunix Analyst: US Fiscal Deficit Pushes Term Premium Higher, Crypto Market Faces Liquidity Test

Comparatively, the yield on 10-year US bonds once rose to 4.75%, a record high since January 2025, while the 20-year yield rose to about 5.28%. Long-term US bonds continued to be pressured to sell off. The core of this rise in yield is not only the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate expectations, but the market is re-evaluating America's long-term fiscal deficit, inflation risk, and term premium. The size of US Treasury bonds is close to $40 trillion, and the fiscal deficit continues to widen, meaning that the government must rely on a larger supply of bonds to absorb market capital. When investors require higher yield to take on long-term US debt, the impact is not only on government financing costs, but also on simultaneously increasing capital costs for enterprises, mortgages, and overvalued assets. In other words, rising long-term yield rates are gradually becoming a pricing constraint for the entire financial market. This is also an important reason why tech stock valuations have come under pressure recently. AI and semiconductor companies still have strong profit growth, but as risk-free interest rates continue to rise and future cash flow discount rates increase simultaneously, valuation premiums for high-growth companies must be recalculated. The minutes of the July meeting of the Joint Committee are therefore even more important. Three officials supported interest rate hikes at the time, and the market will now look for more signals about inflation, the extent of policy restrictions, and differences within the committee. If the record is hawkish, it will further reinforce the expectation that high interest rates will last for a long time; conversely, if the internal situation continues to wait for more economic data, it may reduce the pressure on short-term interest rates, but it may not immediately resolve the fiscal pricing issue of long-term US bonds. Changes in global capital costs are also being reflected in Japan and Switzerland. Mizuho believes that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in September as soon as possible, or even gradually increase the frequency of interest rate hikes; the normalization of interest rates in Japan means that the cost advantage of the yen as a global financing currency has declined further. In contrast, Switzerland currently maintains zero interest rates, and the Swiss franc may become a new financing currency for some arbitrage transactions. This is not simply a change in exchange rates; global arbitrage funds are re-selecting the cheapest funding source. For the crypto market, the impact of this environment is more immediate. Although Bitcoin has medium- to long-term demand from ETFs and institutional capital, it is still an asset that is highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity, real interest rates, and risk appetite in the short term. As long-term US bond yields continue to rise and the opportunity cost of global capital increases, highly valued stocks and crypto assets will face higher capital competition. Therefore, what is currently most noteworthy is not a single interest rate forecast, but rather whether there is a divergence between Fed policy interest rates and long-term US bond yields.

3d ago

Earnings nearly six-fold: the shareholding value of Junwan Hongyi, a subsidiary of Yushu Technology Angel investor Yin Fangming, once reached 12.292 billion yuan, and now a profit of 9.876 billion yuan; Yin Fangming's personal book return has reached 819 times

Comparing news, according to information, Yin Fangming, an angel investor of Yushu Technology, acquired 15% of Yushu Technology's shares with an investment of 2 million yuan in August 2016, and the post-investment valuation was only 13 million yuan. After many subsequent rounds of financing dilution, as of before the IPO, Jun Wan Hongyi, controlled by Yin Fangming, held 11.1749 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of about 2.76%, and was the tenth largest shareholder of Yushu Technology. Based on the issuance market value of 61 billion yuan, the market value of the shares held is about 1,685 billion yuan; currently, Yin Fangming still holds about 16.62% of Junwan Hongyi's share. As Yushu Technology landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board today and its stock price once broke through to 1100 yuan, the market value of Junwan Hongyi's shares once rose to 12,292 billion yuan; currently, the stock price of Yushu Technology is tentatively reported at 884 yuan, and the holding value of Junwan Hongyi's shares is still as high as 9.878 billion yuan, and the floating profit ratio is as high as 4938 times; compared to the market value of 840 times when it was issued, the profit has once again increased nearly 6 times. The penetrating market value corresponding to Yin Fangming's remaining personal equity is about 1,638 billion yuan. Taking into account only this portion of equity and the disclosed equity transfer income of 1,310,600 yuan in 2018, the book return on Yin Fangming's 2 million yuan angel investment has exceeded 819 times.

3d ago

OpenAI and Anthropic's revenue fell short of market expectations, and bulls were congested and bears increased volatility

Comparing news, US stocks plummeted last night, and AI trading became the center of market sell-off. The NASDAQ fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the NASDAQ 100 fell 1.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.6%. Storage stocks bore the brunt, with SanDisk falling about 9%, Micron falling about 7%, and Western Digital about 7%; AI chip leader Nvidia fell about 2.3%, Broadcom fell about 3.2%, semiconductor chains such as Marvell, Intel, and ultra-microcomputers also generally fell, and the decline was even deeper in the direction of optical communication and AI network equipment. For this round of the AI bull market, there is currently pressure on revenue expectations and position structures at the same time. The first pressure comes from commercialized data from AI labs. OpenAI disclosed to investors that revenue for the second quarter increased from $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion in the first quarter, up 18% month-on-month, but losses widened further and operating profit margins continued to decline. This growth rate fell short of expectations of some shareholders, and also caused the market to re-evaluate OpenAI's profit path before the IPO. Anthropic has also sparked controversy. As of the end of July, its annualized revenue operating rate is said to have reached 65 billion US dollars. It is still a very high growth rate, but it is lower than the previous optimistic expectations of 70 billion to 80 billion US dollars from some third parties and the market. This is hitting where the AI market is most sensitive. Over the past year, US stock bulls have been willing to renew payments for GPUs, data centers, storage, power, and cloud capital, provided that leading application companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic can continue to prove that demand for terminals is strong enough. However, as revenue growth falls short of optimistic expectations and losses continue to expand, investors will begin to re-examine the return cycle of the AI capital expenditure chain. The position factor amplified this round of decline. Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage data has shown that the share of bears in typical S&P 500 stocks has risen to a high level since 2011; FactSet and Robinhood statistics also show that most short positions in major US stocks have risen in the past three months. At the same time, the AI infrastructure chain is still gathering large amounts of capital, and some overvalued AI companies have also become overcrowded and shorted targets for hedge funds. Bullish crowding and increasing bears exist at the same time, making the market more sensitive to any negative news. Under this structure, callbacks are amplified. The AI chain increased significantly in the early stages, and the bulls are already making considerable profits; the bears are waiting for cracks in revenue, profit margins, or capital expenditure logic. Once the growth story of OpenAI and Anthropic falls short of the market's highest expectations, capital will first cash out profits, and bears will also follow the trend to lower valuations, eventually forming a market where technology stocks collectively weakened last night.

3d ago