美国大选 · 670

10x Research: Bitcoin's $6.3 million divider between bottom and collapse

Comparing news, the research agency 10x Research published an article stating that the current price of Bitcoin of about $6.3 million is a key critical level that will determine whether market sentiment bottoms out or collapses. Bitcoin fluctuated in a narrow range around $60,000 for six months before the 2024 US election, and this level was also the top building block for the 2021 cycle. After Trump's victory was confirmed, Bitcoin rose rapidly from $70,000 to $90,000. It briefly fell below $90,000 during the tariff shock in April 2025, but since most holders were still profitable, the pullback deal was light. 10x Research said that since there are very few changes in the $70,000 to $90,000 range, it warned in November 2025 that if it falls below $93,000, Bitcoin will be prone to a sharp decline, because there is almost no supply around $65,000 to slow down the decline, and the subsequent decline also confirmed this judgment. Currently, Bitcoin has once again consolidated in the $60,000 area for about six months, but the actual distribution of replacement chips has changed significantly during this period, which has a substantial impact on the next trend in this position. The agency will also further elaborate on the importance of this level, the role of exchange balances, and when leveraged traders may return to the market.

4d ago

Why did Trump's media's $6.4 billion CRO hoarding plan go bad?

Author: Angelilu, Foresight News Original title: Worth $6.4 billion. Trump Media Group's CRO coin hoarding plan came to an end. A year ago, Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) and crypto exchange Crypto.com held high-profile hands to set up a listed treasury company to hoard several billion dollars of CRO. At the time, this politically strong affiliated company set up a stage with a leading exchange to sing, which made a huge impact. A year later, the capital game came to an end sadly. On August 7, DJT, Crypto.com, and SPAC company Yorkville officially announced the termination of this plan, along with the previously announced forecast market and ETF escrow program cooperation. Bitcoin's peak is almost at a standstill, and there is a collective decline in coin hoarding listed companies — after all, this collaboration, which began as a result of being close to politics, failed to reach the point where it came to fruition. At what stage did the suspended cooperation take place, the most important part of this cooperation is to rebuild a publicly traded CRO treasury company. In August 2025, three parties made a high-profile announcement: Trump Media will use SPAC company Yorkville to establish a company called Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, claiming to be the “first and largest publicly traded CRO treasury company,” and plans to stock up about 6.313 billion CROs — close to one-fifth of the current CRO circulation. The entire company is approximately $6.42 billion, comprised of $1 billion in CRO, $200 million in cash, $220 million in warrants, and a $5 billion equity line of credit. However, momentum returned; in fact, this treasury plan never actually came to fruition. It was only a framework agreement announced in August 2025. It had to go through a major SEC filing and approval process for the backdoor listing, which would have been delayed for more than half a year; it remained in a “to be completed” state until it was directly suspended a year later, and was never established. Along with the yellow one, there are two additional packages. Truth Predict, which was originally intended to be embedded into Truth Social's prediction market product — allowing users to bet on political, economic, and sporting events — has now been reduced to a marketing partnership, with Crypto.com only promoting its own prediction market to Truth Social users; Crypto.com provided escrow arrangements for Trump Media's ETFs, which also stopped. The only thing that actually came to fruition and is still in effect is another independent agreement. In August 2025, Trump Media spent about $105 million to buy CRO on the balance sheet, while Crypto.com bought $50 million in DJT shares. This transaction was unaffected by this termination, and it became the only link that did not let go of during this exit. Politics comes first, and commercial transactions come later to figure out why this game of chess fell on Crypto.com. We have to look back — it's political closeness that paved the way for business first. Before and after the 2024 US election, Crypto.com has been handing out olive branches to the Trump campaign: donating $1 million to the inauguration and investing $10 million in MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super political action committee; CEO Kris Marszalek also personally visited Sea-Lake Manor to talk to Trump about crypto policies in person. In March 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped its investigation into Crypto.com — and not long before that, the agency had warned Crypto.com about potential enforcement actions. The relationship paved the way, and a commercial partnership only came to fruition in August 2025. The Trump media wanted a crypto story, a bunch of tokens that could be listed, and an ETF custodian; Crypto.com wanted to use Trump's fame to endorse a self-issued CRO. Precisely because of this, the deal had the smell of a conflict of interest from the first day it was announced — the Trump administration itself had the power to oversee the crypto industry, yet the company linked to his family was deeply tied to an exchange that had just donated money and had just been released by the SEC. Senator Elizabeth Warren and others have publicly called for an investigation into whether the relevant SEC decision involved political factors. Why was it withdrawn? The currency price and market are all...

12d agoburnking

Predicting market revenue surpassing stock trading, Robinhood changed from a stock trading platform to an event casino

Author: Long Yue, Wall Street News Original title: “Influencer Broker” Robinhood's revenue structure has changed dramatically: It is predicted that market revenue has surpassed stock trading. This brokerage firm, which started with zero commissions, is turning gambling and betting on elections into a big business. Robinhood released its second-quarter earnings report last week, predicting that market revenue surged more than tenfold year-on-year to US$156 million, accounting for 20% of total transaction revenue, surpassing stocks and cryptocurrencies for the first time, becoming the second-largest trading business after options. This change is less than two years since Robinhood officially entered the forecast market. What does this number mean? Based on data for the second quarter, Robinhood predicts that the annualized revenue of the market business has exceeded 600 million US dollars. Mizuho Securities stock research analyst Dan Dolev said bluntly: “Users on Robinhood just love to gamble and predict where the market is in their hands. It's the perfect alternative to cryptocurrency because it gives the brain a sense of reward quicker — you don't have to wait.” From stock trading to betting on the World Cup: What are users chasing The logic of predicting the market is simple: users bet on the outcome of real-world events in the form of “yes/no”, including World Cup matches, elections, and even the weather. This instant, simple gameplay is highly compatible with Robinhood's retail user base. Over the timeline, Robinhood's transaction revenue structure has been shifting along with market hot spots. Stock and options revenue surged during the 2021 meme boom; cryptocurrencies then took over, and memes such as Dogecoin led to a surge in crypto trading revenue; until the end of 2024, cryptocurrencies remained Robinhood's biggest source of trading revenue. The turning point came around the 2024 US election. A sharp rise in market popularity is predicted, and a large influx of capital is betting on the election results. Kalshi was approved to operate legally in the US that year, paving the way for other platforms to follow suit. Robinhood then launched its first event contract at the end of 2024, allowing users to bet on the results of the US presidential election, and then launched categories such as sporting events one after another. The peak in revenue in the second quarter was largely due to the World Cup. Compass Point stock research analyst Ed Engel pointed out in the research report that this made the June and July trading volume “unusually strong.” However, he also mentioned that the US rugby season will begin this fall, which is expected to bring a new round of boost. Self-built trading platform, “split” with Kalshi Robinhood initially did not have its own predictive market trading platform, but instead directed user orders to Kalshi. The two parties split the cost of 2 cents per contract. This pattern is changing. In June of this year, Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group jointly established the prediction market trading platform Rothera and began transferring some orders (including World Cup-related bets) to the platform for execution. The fee structure was adjusted accordingly. Robinhood currently charges users up to 1 cent/contract, plus a fee that varies depending on the execution platform — if the order is still sent to Kalshi, Kalshi charges an additional 1 cent/contract. The result was a marked decline in the interdependence between the two companies. According to Artemis data, the share of Robinhood orders in Kalshi's trading volume fell from nearly 50% in the same period last year to 17.5% in the second quarter of this year. Dan Dolev believes that using Rothera will give Robinhood “more control over the forecasting market business.” But at the same time, he pointed out that since Robinhood needs to provide incentives to users, the difference in profit margins between the two models will not be too big. Industry landscape: Kalshi is still the boss. Despite Robinhood's strong momentum, Kalshi's dominant position in predicting the market remains unshaken. According to Artemis data, Kalshi's monthly nominal trading volume in June this year was about $33 billion, Polymarket was $14 billion, while Rothera (who also executed transactions for Robinhood and some market makers) was $2.1 billion. At the income level, Kalshi's annualized revenue for June this year...

18d agoburnking#Predicting the market

The trading volume sent by the World Cup predicts why the market failed to hold on?

Author: Asher Original title: Data review: One World Cup, how many dividends can the market expect? The 2026 World Cup is over, and the prediction market is undergoing a phased test. Over the past six weeks, many users have added another level of real-time interaction to watching the game by predicting the market's participation results, promotion situation, and champion ownership transactions. Now that the tournament has come to an end, the Odaily Star Daily will review the performance of leading prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun before, during and after the World Cup from the three dimensions of trading volume, fee revenue, and TVL. The World Cup brought the predicted market trading volume to a new high, but the popularity failed to continue Kalshi's lead. Polymarket closed the gap, and predict.fun used the World Cup to break through. Judging from the total trading volume of the platform during the World Cup, Kalshi still maintained a clear lead. Over the same period, Kalshi's total trading volume reached $54.338 billion, and Polymarket was $20.988 billion, which is about 2.6 times the latter. However, if we only look at World Cup-related events, the gap between the two companies quickly narrowed. Kalshi's related trading volume was US$13.591 billion, and Polymarket reached US$10.356 billion. The former was only about 1.3 times that of the latter. (Note: The trading volumes discussed in this article are all nominal trading volumes.) In the past, Polymarket's representative markets focused more on the US election, cryptocurrencies, and geopolitical events. The World Cup further raised the importance of the sports market in the platform, moving it from a supplementary category to a core trading sector. Kalshi's advantage is that the trading structure is more scattered. In addition to the World Cup, other sporting events, politics, and macro markets can still continue to contribute to trading volume, and also provide more acceptance scenarios for activity after the event. The total trading volume of predict.fun's platform during the World Cup reached $1,092 billion, of which the World Cup-related market contributed $886 million. Although there is still a clear gap between the overall scale and Kalshi and Polymarket, for a platform that has only been online for more than half a year, this World Cup brought in close to $900 million in trading volume, making Predict.fun one of the most prominent new platforms in this round of tournament dividends. Before, during, and after the World Cup, the average daily trading volume of the three prediction market platforms changed, and Kalshi's trading volume increased most significantly during the World Cup. Its average daily nominal trading volume in May was US$580 million, rising to US$1,393 million during the tournament, an increase of approximately 140%. Trading volume fell back to $494.4 million on July 22, which is already below the May daily average. Polymarket's change is close to Kalshi's. Its average daily nominal trading volume in May was US$228 million, rising to US$538 million during the World Cup, an increase of about 136%. Trading volume fell to $180.9 million on July 22, also below pre-match levels. The base of predict.fun is low, but the pull brought by the World Cup is still clear. Its average daily nominal trading volume in May was US$14.7 million, which nearly doubled to US$28 million during the tournament. The trading volume on July 22 was $13.2 million, which basically returned to pre-match levels. Comparing the daily trading volume after the World Cup alone, the growth brought about by the World Cup is more like a round of concentrated tournament traffic, and has not kept the platform's daily trading volume at a higher level for a long time. Whether it can rise again in the future also depends on whether other sporting events and non-sports markets can catch up with trading demand after the World Cup. How much processing fee revenue did the World Cup bring to the three prediction market platforms? Kalshi's fee revenue continued to rise as the competition schedule progressed. The overall Kalshi fee revenue curve, which surpassed $100 million in a single week in the fourth week, showed a strong upward trend. The four-day revenue for the opening phase was $41.4 million, rising to $64.5 million in the first week, reaching $82.7 million in the second week, reaching $91.3 million in the third week, reaching another level in the fourth week, reaching $102.3 million, the highest point during the entire World Cup period, and slightly falling back to $91 million during the final week. Throughout the World Cup, Kalshi's cumulative revenue from processing fees reached US$473.2 million. the world...

29d agoburnking#Predicting the market #Forecast market topics

Trading volume soared to $242 billion during the Kalshi World Cup, and “mass consensus” is reshaping the internet in the AI era

Comparatively, the US prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup. The platform's trading volume soared from US$6.67 billion on June 22 to US$24.2 billion on July 14, with the “World Cup Champion” single prediction market trading volume exceeding US$1.2 billion. Kalshi said that behind its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: with the massive increase in AI-generated content, real, immediate, and unreplicable human interaction scenarios are becoming more scarce, and predictive markets are becoming a new tool for observing public sentiment and group judgment. According to the data, currently about 75% of Kalshi visitors do not directly participate in the transaction, but instead use the platform as a source of information to understand the public's collective expectations of sports, politics, and economic events by predicting market prices. Bloomberg terminals have previously begun integrating Kalshi data to capture some changes in market sentiment. Kalshi's chief marketing officer Allan Maman said AI may be driving the formation of a “new monoculture” (monoculture), where large-scale real-time events are once again the focus of common social attention. According to company data, large-scale events such as the World Cup, US elections, sporting events, and award ceremonies will all lead to a concentrated explosion in trading volume. Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform to a next-generation financial transaction infrastructure. The company currently has a Designated Contract Market (Designated Contract Market) qualification approved by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and plans to cover more forecasting fields such as sports, geopolitics, culture and economics. However, Kalshi still faces regulatory challenges. Some US state governments have questioned their sports-related contracts, and the CFTC is also restricting some prediction contracts involving “discrete events” such as athlete injuries and referees. On the market side, Kalshi's valuation has reportedly grown from $11 billion in December 2025 to around $40 billion at the end of June 2026, and has entered the IPO preparation phase. The company's annualized revenue has surpassed $2 billion. Kalshi believes that the future prediction market will become an important infrastructure connecting financial markets, news media, and social sentiment, reflecting the public's judgment on future events through real-time prices.

32d ago#Forecast market topics

Crypto companies like Ripple, Coinbase and others donate $189 million for the US midterm elections

According to Public Citizen data, Ripple, Coinbase, and other crypto companies contributed $189 million to the 2026 US midterm elections. In total, crypto companies account for 517 percent of the $37 billion corporate political donations. Previously, during the 2024 US election, the crypto industry donated about $160 million in political donations. After the Trump administration came to power, the crypto industry sped up lobbying to consolidate the results of regulatory deregulation.

52d ago

Predictive market index provider Predictive completes $2.5 million Pre-Seed funding round, with VanEck and others participating

According to official news, predictive market index provider Predictive announced the completion of a $2.5 million pre-seed round of financing, with investors including Night Capital, VanEck, UFO Holdings, Maven11, and DCG. Precisely, an independent third-party event contract and predictive market index provider, launched the US Election Index series RED and BLUE this week. Indices said it is rapidly expanding its index products to cover fields such as global elections, finance, and economics.

52d ago#financing

How can the prediction market use the World Cup to start a mass “war of entry”?

Author: The original title: The World Cup is coming, the war of entry into the prediction market has begun in the early morning of June 12, and the 2026 World Cup between the US, Canada, and Mexico has officially begun. As the most watched sporting event in the world, the World Cup is not just a direct competition between players on the court. Who can lift the Hercules Cup? Which team will be the biggest dark horse? Who will win the Golden Boot in the end? Since a few months before the start of the game, hundreds of millions of fans have actively discussed and predicted various results on social media. Unlike previous editions, in addition to being able to choose to fight with words on social platforms or participate in traditional contests (there are generally strict geographical restrictions), this year's new on-chain probability sensing tool, Prediction Market (Prediction Market), which originated in the cryptocurrency world, is becoming the biggest off-site attraction of this World Cup. There is no doubt about the appeal of transforming group intelligence into real money winning rates and predicting the market. Over the past few years, the prediction market represented by Kalshi and Polymarket has repeatedly broken circles in many global macroeconomic events, geographical conflicts, and financial market trends, and its extremely high sensitivity to information feedback has even been regarded by many mainstream media as “a more accurate weather vane than traditional polls.” However, the prediction market has long been more like an exclusive battleground for native users of the crypto market. For an ordinary fan attracted by the World Cup, if they want to participate, they often need to cross a very high and extremely steep learning curve — wallets, mnemonics, online chains, gas, smart contracts, licensing, transactions... These are concepts that users in the industry have long been accustomed to. Objectively, they form an entry threshold for a large number of new users, and it is even enough to block 90% of interested potential users out the door. In other words, although the prediction market has proven its products and value, it has been stuck in the complicated experience of infrastructure even though it is one kilometer away from achieving “mass democratization” (Mass Democratization). Using Gate as an example, analyze the significance of CEX channels. Facing this industry pain point, Gate and other centralized exchanges (CEXs) are trying to break the complicated threshold requirements faced by new users by integrating (or self-building) predicting market products and reconstructing interactive experiences. Gate is a prime example of this. As the first CEX to directly access Polymarket, Gate and Polymarket have established a classic cooperation paradigm — Polymarket provides the ability to participate in events, match transactions, and settle accounts as the underlying layer; Gate provides an on-chain transaction entry and account system as a channel side, and users can directly use Gate accounts and USDT to complete all trading operations. As of June 16, 2026, Gate's cumulative trading volume of forecast market products has exceeded US$251 million, reaching a single-day peak of nearly US$69 million, ranking first in nominal transaction volume among the more than 300 channels cooperating with Polymarket. For ordinary users, the most direct reflection of the value of this channel is the reduction of the participation threshold and the optimization of the interactive experience. Within Gate's product system, users can directly participate in predicting market transactions without having to consider complicated steps such as wallet creation, asset cross-chain, gas payment, and on-chain authorization. The entire process is not fundamentally different from the spot or contract trading experience. At the same time, for senior users who are accustomed to on-chain operations, Gate has also retained the Web3 wallet access method, providing more room for choice between convenience and native experience. Specifically, in terms of trading experience, Gate provides two different sets of interaction solutions, “prediction mode” and “transaction mode.” The prediction mode is more suitable for regular users. In this model, users only need to select “Yes” or “No”, enter the participation amount and complete confirmation to complete the transaction. The system will simultaneously display the corresponding probability and potential benefits, and the overall operation path is reduced to a simple three-step process. Advanced users with trading experience can consider the trading model. This model provides more professional marketing tools, including functions such as order books, K-line charts, and in-depth data. At this point, the prediction market is no longer just about betting on the final outcome; it is also a market for real-time pricing and trading around changes in probability. In terms of transaction flexibility, Gate allows users to conduct “two-way transactions” at any time, and can buy or sell their shares at any time according to changes in market expectations before the event is finally settled, without holding...

67d agoburnking#Gate #Exchanges #Predicting the market

Bitcoin falls below the 2024 US election day closing price

Comparing news, Bitcoin continued to decline this week, and recently reported $60,619, which is about 12.6% lower than the closing price of around $69,355 on November 5, 2024. It briefly fell below $60,000, for the first time since 2024, down nearly 52% from its all-time high. After Trump was re-elected in 2024, Bitcoin rose above $75,000 and reached around $109,000 in January 2025; in October 2025, after Bitcoin hit a high of $126,080, it then fell from above $121,000 to $106,000 in the crypto market's $19 billion liquidation. In January 2026, the Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of over $1.5 billion. Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 32 bitcoins at the end of May for about $2.5 million; Trump recently said he won't disappoint the crypto industry. The GENIUS Act was signed into law last year, and the Clarity Act has yet to complete the legislative process after passing a committee vote in May.

77d ago

2.5 million accounts lost 84% of their money. Predict how the market will become a meat grinder for retail investors?

Author: Shenchao TechFlow Original title: Back of the money printer: Of Polymarket's 2.5 million accounts, 84% are losing money. When the World Cup re-introduced overseas retail investors to the betting interface between Polymarket and Kalshi, the other side of this expansion is worth seeing clearly. There are still seven days until the start of the US-Canada-Mexico World Cup, and Polymarket's “World Cup Champion” single market transactions have surpassed 1.6 billion US dollars. According to the Q1 2026 report jointly disclosed by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, the number of active wallets on the platform rose to 1.29 million, with monthly sales of 25.7 billion US dollars in March, 13.5 times that of the same period last year. However, corresponding to the “money printer” narrative on the institutional side, is another data published by the Wall Street Journal, on-chain analysts, and the French and Canadian academic team: 70% to 84.1% of accounts lost money, 0.04% of wallets took 70% of the platform's profits, and less than 2,000 accounts split nearly 500 million US dollars. On average, every average user lost $1 to $100, and the worst 10% lost an average of $4,000. When the World Cup brings overseas retail investors back to the betting interface between Polymarket and Kalshi, the other side of this expansion is worth seeing clearly. A true picture of 1.29 million wallets: Changes in behavior are worth paying more attention to than transaction volume. The report jointly released by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket on April 30 is the most complete picture of the predicted market retail community so far. The report is based on Dune Analytics on-chain data and covers 1.29 million active wallets in Q1 2026. In terms of volume, Polymarket's monthly nominal turnover in March reached 25.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.5 times compared to 1.9 billion US dollars in March 2025. But Elden Mirzoian, head of Polymarket's growth department, emphasized in the report: “The real transformation is not volume, but behavior.” Specifically, 82.3% of users traded less than 10,000 US dollars for the whole quarter, and only 2.5% of wallets accumulated transactions exceeding 100,000 US dollars. The average quarterly transaction amount for “micro users” (micro users) is only $35, and “light users” (light users) are also only $392. The median transaction amounts between $2-3 and $2-3, which is almost the same as buying a cup of coffee. Behavioral sticky data shows a different growth structure. The number of quarterly active days for users rose from 2.5 days to 9.9 days, and the number of participating categories rose from 1.45 to 2.34. Polymarket COO Alvin Kan summed it up: “Predicting the market is no longer about capital, but about continuous repetitive behavior. What we're seeing is a shift in behavior, and the market is growing not by bigger singletons, but by more clicks every day.” Simply put, this is a group of “frequent, small, cross-category” retail users. Sports became the largest category in Q1, with sales of $10.1 billion in a single quarter; BTC-related event contracts attracted 593,000 users and generated $5.42 billion in transactions, making it the largest entry point in the crypto segment. 70% to 84% of wallets are losing money. The three independent studies all point to the same conclusion, but the other side of the hustle is that the distribution of losses is extremely skewed. Over the past six months, at least three groups of independent studies have pointed to the same conclusion, predicting that the market is a pyramid with a high concentration of winners. In December 2025, on-chain analyst DeFi Oasis analyzed 124 million transactions for 1.7 million wallet addresses on Polymarket and concluded that 70% of the addresses had realized losses, and less than 0.04% of the wallets shared 70% of the total profit, amounting to about $370 million. In April 2026, on-chain researcher Andrey Sergeenkov published a report with a larger sample size through The Defiant, covering 2.5 million Polymarket wallets and improving the handling of token splits and mergers. The loss ratio under the new caliber rose from 70% to 84.1%. That is, every 6 Polymarques...

78d agoburnking#Kalshi #Polymarket #Retail investors #wallets