美股市场 · 327

Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

12h ago

J.P. Morgan warns of the risk of a fall pullback in US stocks, the AI boom may repeat the 2000 tech bubble

Comparing news, JPMorgan (JPMorgan) warned that although the world's major stock indexes are still on an upward trend, the market may face the risk of a pullback in late summer to early fall. The bank said that recently the internal structure of the US stock market is deteriorating, capital has begun to shift to defensive assets, and investors' confidence in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks has also weakened. Jason Hunter, a strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase, pointed out that the current AI trading boom is similar to the 1999-2000 tech stock bubble. The market's excessive concentration of positions in the technology sector may increase the risk of adjustment. Furthermore, the continued rise in US Treasury yields, geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and slowing consumer spending have also been identified by J.P. Morgan as potential sources of market pressure. J.P. Morgan believes that the current AI investment cycle still has potential for long-term growth, but market valuations, capital congestion, and investor expectations in the short term may put technology stocks at greater risk of volatility.

1d ago

Citibank: It is recommended to buy on dips to buy any US stock market correction before the midterm elections

Comparing news, the Citigroup report suggests investors continue to overstock stocks and increase their positions if the market falls before the US midterm elections. The bank believes that despite recent concerns about artificial intelligence, factors such as rising profit expectations, improved liquidity conditions, and limited warning signals provided support. Citi continues to be optimistic about the US stock market and believes that sector rotation may limit the downside. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

If it's just tokenized assets and doesn't connect to DeFi, what's left of RWA?

Author: Jesus Rodriguez, co-founder of Sentora Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News Original title: Does RWA still make sense without DeFi? Discussions in the RWA industry often begin with a simple vision: take a treasury bill, fund share, stock, invoice, megawatt hour, or GPU for one hour, then mint a token representing it. Is it useful? It's really useful. But can it be called transformative? It's far from there. This is like putting a bar code on a container and claiming that a global trade problem has been solved. Barcodes make containers recognizable and machine-readable, but they don't create ports, cranes, customs, insurance, financing, shipping routes out of thin air, or bring in buyers from afar. A token is simply an addressable token of interest, and DeFi is a marketplace operating system. The question really worth discussing is not how many types of assets can go on the chain, but how many assets can complete valuation, financing, hedging, transaction monetization, and loss disposal in a stressful environment, and there is no need for offline meetings and coordination every time a transaction occurs. Tokenization completes the representation of equity; what DeFi brings is actual utility. Tokenization is just a bar code, and a similar scene has happened in the history of the supply chain finance market. The reason why mortgages can be scaled up is not as simple as turning a paper document into an electronic record. To actually achieve large-scale expansion, a complete set of operating mechanisms was created around this type of asset: credit review, post-loan services, securitization, credit rating, warehousing and financing, repurchases, hedging, clearing and settlement, and loss allocation rules. RWA also needed to go through the exact same evolutionary process. An asset that can be adapted to DeFi requires six levels: legally enforceable rights, reliable data sources, clear transfer and redemption rules, enforceable secondary market liquidity, collateral parameters that match actual behavior, and a credible settlement and loss disposal path. Most tokenization projects, on the other hand, tend to stop at the top five levels. There is a simple test that can be used to test the maturity of an asset. It only requires answering three questions: How much is this asset currently worth? Can the agreement complete withdrawal and monetization at this point? If the first two judgments are all wrong, who bears the loss? When smart contracts can definitively answer the above three questions, RWA can truly become a basic component of finance. Before that, it was mostly just a digital packaging shell. The deepest technical contradiction of RWA's quadruple time clock is that RWA runs under multiple sets of different time clocks at the same time. The blockchain can complete settlement in seconds and operate uninterrupted for 7 x 24 hours; oracles may update prices every hour or every day; underlying traditional exchanges are closed at night and on weekends; custodians follow bank working days; and the asset redemption process may take 1 day, 5 days, or even 30 days. If you use such a slow-paced RWA asset to support fast-maturing DeFi liabilities, such as stablecoin loans. This is the term shift, and it is also the core model that banks have relied on for hundreds of years: using short-term debt to fund long-term slow assets. This model has practical value, but the risk must be reasonably priced. Imagine a scenario: At 2 a.m. on Sunday, assets hit the liquidation threshold. Smart contracts can seize tokens immediately, but the underlying real-world market won't open until Monday, and the issuer's redemption business will not be processed until Tuesday. On-chain liquidation has been completed, and real-world asset disposal has only just begun. This creates a clearing gap. DeFi requires immediate withdrawal for monetization, but the real world does not allow it. The time difference between the two. This gap has counterintuitive consequences. Even treasury bonds with very low volatility are riskier than native crypto assets that are more volatile when used as collateral. The price of ETH fluctuates drastically, but it can be traded around the clock; the price of RWA assets appears to be stable, and it may only be up to a dozen hours without a new price tag. A flat price sometimes represents safety, and sometimes it's just a disguise of stale data. Liquidity is an exit channel, not TVL. The digital public also has common misunderstandings about liquidity. Liquidity is not equal to TVL, does not equal the existence of a trading pair, nor does it mean that the issuer promises to eventually redeem it according to net worth. Liquidity refers to the ability to convert a position into the settlement asset you need at an acceptable discount within the time window allowed by your debt. Take a crowded theater for example: the size of the hall cannot determine whether it is safe in the event of a fire; what really matters is the width of the exit channel. One copy of RWA to...

1d agoForesight News#DeFi #RWA

US retail investors have begun to “explode” in bearish options, but the underlying bullish formation is not chaotic

Comparing news, since April of this year, there has been a fundamental reversal in the behavior pattern of retail investors in the US stock market. According to data from research firm Vanda Research, although total direct stock purchases showed a downward trend this year, retail purchases of put options are bucking the trend and surging. According to the data, buying volume of put options for the 12 most popular stocks favored by retail investors in 2026 almost doubled compared to the first quarter. As a basic defensive derivative, a put option gives the holder the right to sell the corresponding asset at a predetermined price before a specific date. Kaidi Meng, a global equity strategist at Vanda, confirmed this dramatic shift in funding. She pointed out that the purchase volume of such options as a share of net cash purchases (that is, the difference between buying and selling assets) has soared sharply from about 26% to 110%. In response to widespread cuts in long positions, industry analysts believe this may be the end of retail investors' concentrated profits after years of successfully adopting the “buy on dips” strategy. Furthermore, some of the withdrawn funds may have chosen to take on a more intense risk game through speculative stocks, leveraged ETFs, and predictive markets. (CNBC)

3d ago

Analysis: The resilience of US stocks in 2026 may hit a record of nearly 30 years, and there has been no extreme sell-off

Comparing news, The Kobeissi Letter said on the X platform that the US stock market showed unprecedented resilience in 2026, and may now be the first full year in at least 30 years without a “80% or more drop in volume day” on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The so-called “80% + NYSE downside-volume days” (80% + NYSE downside-volume days) mean that at least 80% of the trading volume on the NYSE came from falling stocks on that day, which is generally seen as an important sign of widespread selling pressure in the market. The data shows that during the 2008 global financial crisis, the NYSE had 49 such trading days; 33 during the 2022 bear market; and 9 times in 2025. Since 1997, the indicator has averaged around 21 times per year, and has never before been less than 5 times in any full year. Kobeissi Letter pointed out that up to now, there has been almost no widespread selling pressure in the 2026 market, indicating that investors' selling behavior is relatively limited, and the market structure has shown strong support. Currently, the US stock market shows “unprecedented resilience,” but this phenomenon also means that market risks may be more concentrated on potential future liquidity changes or emergencies.

5d ago

Glassnode: Bitcoin was snubbed during the capital rotation period, and venture capital continued to pour into US stocks and AI assets

Comparing news, Glassnode published an article stating that while the US consumer confidence index recently fell to a record low, the US stock market continued to reach new historical highs, and there was a clear contrast between market sentiment and asset performance. Weak consumer confidence is accelerating the flow of capital from cash assets to stocks, artificial intelligence (AI) related assets, and commodities, and investors are seeking higher returns by allocating risky assets. Notably, Bitcoin was clearly snubbed in this round of funding rotation. Although stocks, AI, and commodities continue to attract capital inflows, Bitcoin has not benefited at the same time, indicating that current market capital allocation is still mainly focused on traditional risk assets and AI topics, and BTC's participation in this round of asset rotation is relatively limited.

5d ago

Nasdaq's 23-hour trading system has been approved by the SEC and will be officially launched on December 6

According to Nasdaq's financial report for the first quarter of 2026 and 8-K documents submitted to the SEC, its 23-hour trading system (23/5) has been approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and will be officially launched on December 6, 2026. At that time, the US stock market will only be closed for 1 hour every day (20:00-21:00 EST) for system clearing and data processing, and the remaining 23 hours will be open for continuous trading.

15d ago

Southern Dongying: Starting today, 12 leveraged and inverse products linked to individual stocks such as Nvidia and Coinbase will use flexible leverage structures

According to comparative news, Southern Dongying Fund announced that a total of 12 individual stock leveraged and inverse products with individual stocks such as SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Tesla, Nvidia, and Coinbase in the US stock market will use a flexible leverage structure starting today. The leverage ratio for each leveraged product or each reverse product will be adjusted according to market conditions, and the maximum leverage ratio shall not exceed two times (2x) (for leveraged products) or double reverse (-2x) (for reverse products) (for reverse products) of the US stock market. Go through the official website before the market opens or The Hong Kong Stock Exchange website announced that under extreme circumstances, the target leverage ratio for leveraged products can be reduced to as low as 1.1 times, and the leverage ratio for reverse products may be adjusted to -1.1 times. Southern Dongying Fund's announcement stated that as a passive investment product, the relevant leverage and reverse products adjust the leverage ratio, mainly considering capacity limitations or cost factors. The flexible leverage structure is designed to cope with extreme market conditions: for example, after a sharp rise in the scale of related leverage and reverse products, there are situations where capacity is limited, operating costs rise sharply, and the original target leverage cannot continue to be maintained.

19d ago

KOSPI melted seven times during the year, and global stock markets are replicating the coin industry script

Author: Doumaru Original title: Welcome back to your native family. The global stock market is being coin-circled in Seoul on July 13, 2026. Korea Composite Index KOSPI plummeted 8.95% in a single day, breaking for the 7th time in the year. SK Hynix, the “national transport stock” in the eyes of Koreans, fell sharply by 15.37% in a single day. We have not seen such a sharp decline in nearly 20 years. Samsung Electronics also dropped more than 10%. More than 1.2 million leveraged accounts popped up with deposit recovery notifications, and the brokerage system automatically closed 320,000 to 460,000 accounts. What's even more worrisome is that 62% of those who closed out positions were young people aged 20 to 30, some lost their down payment for a wedding house, and others took loans to trade stocks... A young man in his 20s in Busan directly stabbed the blogger because he listened to the loss recommended by a stock YouTuber. In the past, these words were probably used to describe the scene after the coin industry plummeted; now, it is being repeated in the South Korean, American, and Japanese markets after the decline in technology stocks. The sharp rise and fall is only an indication. What really changed was the pricing method. The narrative overweighed the valuation, the leverage amplified sentiment, and social media quickly pushed the consensus to the extreme. The global stock market, especially technology stocks, is becoming more and more like a coin. Return to Native Family “Welcome back to Native Family.” After the sharp decline, traders in the coin industry who switched to the stock market wrote short loss essays one after another. The above comments can be found everywhere in the comment area. The so-called “native family” refers to cryptocurrencies. From the second half of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, a “run away from the native family” drama was staged in the coin industry. A group of KOLs and veteran players who have been struggling in the cryptocurrency market for many years are beginning to lose confidence in the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin fluctuated sideways, trading volume was weak, and meme coins were cut back and forth. Many people felt that “this circle is weak” and began to turn their attention to US stocks. This seems like a reasonable choice. Shares have revenue, profit, financial reports, and are regulated by the SEC. Compared to crypto projects that lack cash flow and rely entirely on consensus pricing, US stocks are at least a more mature and secure asset. Not only did traders in the coin industry take away liquidity, but they also carried the trading methods of the past. In the crypto market, they are used to chasing new narratives, finding highly flexible targets, using leverage, and quickly changing positions based on social media sentiment. Since entering the stock market, this method has hardly changed, except that trading partners have switched from tokens to AI, memory chips, and leveraged ETFs, and achieved great results over and over again. Storage stocks soon became the new collective consensus. The logic is not complicated: AI servers require more high-bandwidth memory, HBM is in short supply, and storage prices are rising. Naturally, Micron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix have become the most direct “sellers”. Brother Sun's phrase “never lacking storage” is even more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Many crypto KOLs have changed and started talking about US stocks, storage cycles, and AI capital expenses. Doubling products such as SK Hynix is also used as a “more efficient” betting tool than ordinary stocks. Until the market reversed in July. Instead, Bitcoin has become a “low volatility asset”. How long will it take to drop in half from the top? It took 268 days for Bitcoin and 169 days for silver to complete a similar retracement. In contrast, it only took 36 days for SanDisk to drop about 55%, and it only took 34 days for SK Hynix to drop about 53%. Also, it was a “backlog”. Bitcoin was used for almost nine months, and storage stocks only used for over a month. This is exactly what is strange about this round of the market: in the past, investors feared that Bitcoin would soar and fall within a few days, while stocks relied on profits and slow valuation adjustments; now, some tech stocks are completing a complete bubble burst in a shorter period of time than cryptocurrencies. Very counterintuitive. Compared to some tech stocks, Bitcoin is becoming relatively stable. According to Carson Wealth Management statistics, Bitcoin's historical volatility in 2025 was about 42%, with a maximum retracement of about 32%; during the same period, Tesla's volatility was about 63%, the maximum retracement was 48%, Nvidia's volatility was about 50%, and the maximum retracement was 37%. Bitcoin is still a high-risk asset, but some big tech stocks are more volatile. In its 2026 outlook, Bitwise even predicted that Bitcoin's overall volatility may continue to be lower than Nvidia. So the current situation is quite absurd: Bitcoin is becoming more and more like technology stocks, but technology stocks are becoming more and more like Bitcoin. There is an old saying in the coin industry when narratives become valuation anchors; speculating on coins is speculating on narratives. Global tech stocks in 2026 are turning this statement into reality. AI is certainly not air, Nvidia...

23d agoburnking#KOSPI #stocks