货币政策 · 3180

The global bond market is currently selling off, and the scale of panda bond issuance has reached a record high

Comparative news. According to CCTV financial reports, the yield on long-term treasury bonds of the world's major economies has continued to rise recently, and the sell-off pressure on the bond market is heating up. However, the Chinese bond market and exchange rate have maintained a relatively smooth operation, and the scale of panda bond issuance has reached a record high for the same period in history. According to the data, as of August 21, the cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds in 2026 reached 209.975 billion yuan, an increase of over 73% over the previous year. Against the backdrop of drastic fluctuations in global bond markets, international institutions are increasing domestic RMB financing, drawing attention. According to industry insiders, we are in a completely different economic and monetary cycle than overseas. Foreign capital accounts for only about 5%-8% of China's bond market, and domestic capital has absolute pricing power. Combined with our monetary policy, we insist that I am the main focus, and overseas shocks cannot reverse the overall trend of the domestic bond market. Looking ahead to the future market, industry insiders believe that the yield on overseas bonds is likely to remain high, the allocation value of RMB bonds is prominent, and the medium to long term may welcome a continuous increase in foreign capital allocation. However, it is also important to note that higher yields on US bonds have raised the return threshold for global allocated funds, and may disrupt the will of overseas institutions to increase their holdings of RMB bonds. Furthermore, the rapid rise in bond yields in overseas developed countries may also limit domestic risk asset valuations.

4h ago

Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

12h ago

Opinion: Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh may send a gentle signal of calm at the Jackson Hole meeting

Comparing news, TD Securities said that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh) may send a mild signal of stability to the market at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Seminar next week. The market will pay attention to Walsh's more clear statement on the future path of monetary policy and whether he reaffirms the Fed's commitment to curb inflation. However, if Walsh continues to avoid providing forward-looking policy guidance, the market may still be disappointed. TD Securities anticipates that Walsh's speech is more likely to signal a gradual policy adjustment rather than suggest a major policy shift. Investors will try to find clues from their remarks about interest rate trends and changes in the Federal Reserve's policy framework.

1d ago

Analysis: Bitcoin hits the $80,000 mark, ETF capital inflows and macro-liquidity are key variables

Comparing news, Bitcoin rose to its highest level since May before the US market on Friday. After hitting $79,400 in the intraday period, it hovered around $78,000, just one step away from the $80,000 key resistance level. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, and market risk appetite was boosted. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said that this round of growth is mainly driven by macro factors, not the crypto market's own factors, and Bitcoin is still highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and actual yield. Earlier, US inflation data fell short of expectations and employment data weakened. In addition, the US Treasury announced measures to reduce long-term treasury yields, driving up risk assets. Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is currently an important dividing line for Bitcoin. To achieve an effective breakthrough, the market needs to further confirm that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting towards easing. Relevant signals may be released at the Jackson Hole meeting next week. However, he also warned that if inflation continues to be high or the dollar weakens, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Furthermore, the scale of increase in holdings of large holders is still limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support continued breakthroughs. Subsequent US spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows and macro-data performance will be key indicators for judging market continuity. (CoinDesk) This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

South Korea's Finance Minister: Will pay close attention to the impact of rising global bond yields

Comparative news, according to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea's finance minister said on Friday that as long-term yields in major economies rise and economic uncertainty intensifies, South Korea will pay close attention to its treasury bond market. South Korea's finance minister stated during a meeting with financial officials: “Due to increased fiscal spending and the uncertainty brought about by the situation in the Middle East, long-term treasury yields in major economies, including the US, Japan, and Europe, have risen to the highest level in decades.” “The government will closely monitor the issuance and trading of treasury bonds and work to reduce financing costs for businesses and households,” he said. Furthermore, he also mentioned that the exchange rate of the won against the US dollar fell to 1,300 for the first time this week, and previously fell to around 1550 in early July, and this trend was due to South Korea's record current account surplus. However, he added that given the geopolitical tension in the Middle East region and the monetary policies of major economies, the exchange rate faces both positive and negative risks. “The government will remain alert and respond to market fluctuations.”

1d ago

Federal Reserve Officials Downplay Risk of US Debt Selloff, but September Policy Disagreements Remain

Comparing news, US bonds have recently been drastically sold off, and long-term yields once rose to the highest level since 2007, yet Federal Reserve officials have downplayed concerns about the so-called damage to the market's policy credibility. San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly and St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mussalem both believe that the increase in long-term US bond yields is more due to government financing needs and capital requirements brought about by AI infrastructure construction, rather than inflation expectations getting out of control. However, the two clearly disagree on the September monetary policy. Daly believes that recent inflation, retail sales, and employment data have mitigated the need for further policy tightening. Currently, the policy is in a good state, and there is insufficient pre-emptive basis for interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts. Mussalem, on the other hand, is hawkish, saying that the underlying inflation rate is still at a high level of 2.5% to 3%. The current policy may be close to neutral or even loose, and revealed that it is more inclined to raise interest rates at the July meeting. At present, the market's expectations for the September rate hike have cooled down drastically, and the relevant probability has dropped from over 70% at the end of July to about 30%. It is worth noting that neither of them has the right to vote in the FOMC this year, and 3 officials already opposed keeping interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, indicating that the internal policy differences of the Federal Reserve have not been resolved.

1d ago

Peter Schiff: Bitcoin's rise is just a fake breakthrough; it is recommended to sell BTC to buy gold

Comparing news, Peter Schiff, a long-time Bitcoin critic, wrote that Bitcoin's rise above $7.2 million was a fake breakthrough, not a real breakthrough. The US Treasury's announcement of a buyback plan caught the market by surprise. Bitcoin investors have long believed that a return to loose monetary policy will be a catalyst for a sharp rise in gold and Bitcoin. But that judgment was only half right. It is recommended to sell Bitcoin and buy gold.

2d agoWendy

Federal Reserve Mussalem: Monetary policy is now neutral or loose

Comparative news. According to the Kim 10 report, the Federal Reserve's Mussalem said that monetary policy is now in a neutral or relaxed state, and the financial environment is currently quite relaxed. The Federal Reserve is focusing on making monetary policy independent of fiscal policy, and strong growth and investment influence the bond market. There is nothing wrong with the Federal Reserve's credibility.

2d ago

Bitunix Analyst: The pressure on US debt of $40 trillion heats up, the Ministry of Finance takes steps to reduce long-term bond yields, the dollar falls sharply, and BTC strengthens at the same time as gold

Comparatively, the US federal debt officially surpassed 40 trillion US dollars, and the monthly fiscal deficit reached 432 billion US dollars in July, while interest expenses on debt surpassed health insurance in the first 10 months before fiscal 2026, making it the second-largest federal budget item after social security spending. While the fiscal deficit still accounts for about 6% of GDP and the supply of long-term debt continues to increase, the problems facing US bond yields are not just inflation, but fiscal supply, government financing requirements, and term premiums are rising at the same time. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced an increase in the repurchase scale of 10-year to 30-year US bonds in an attempt to ease the upward pressure on long-term yields. This move improved bond market sentiment in the short term, and also reflected that the government is more sensitive to the pressure on financing costs brought about by high long-term bond yields. The market quickly reflected this policy signal yesterday. DXY fell 0.9% to about 97.9, BTC surged 7.13% to $69,310, and gold rose 4.31% to 4,522 US dollars at the same time. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in long-term yield rates have given room for repricing non-dollar assets and high-beta assets. The simultaneous strengthening of BTC and gold is particularly noteworthy. However, it should be noted that the latest minutes of the Joint Committee meeting still show that many officials believe that if inflation does not continue to fall, interest rates may still be raised in the future, indicating that monetary policy has not shifted to easing. As a result, yesterday's market was closer to the easing of financial conditions brought about by the Ministry of Finance's intervention in the long-term bond market and the repricing of the US dollar, rather than an interest rate cut transaction. For BTC, the next key is whether long-term yields on DXY and US bonds can remain weak. If the US dollar continues to weaken and long-term bond yields stabilize, BTC is expected to continue this round of rebound; however, if inflation stickiness and $40 trillion debt push up maturity premiums again, US bond yields will rise again, putting renewed valuation pressure on the crypto market.

2d ago

Federal Reserve microphone: US Senator asks Walsh to disclose Mandarin records with Trump, questioning the transparency of the Federal Reserve

Comparing news, Nick Timiraos, the chief economic reporter of the Wall Street Journal and known as the Federal Reserve's microphone, recently wrote that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh is facing severe audit pressure from Congress. On Wednesday local time, four members of the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Chris Van Hollen (Chris Van Hollen), sent a joint letter to Walsh requesting that all details of their communication with US President Trump be publicly disclosed. Earlier, there were reports that Walsh maintained frequent telephone contact with Trump after taking office, but no related calls were recorded in the Federal Reserve's public schedule for Walsh's initial tenure. Lawmakers believe that this kind of selective transparency may raise concerns about the government interfering with monetary policy. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said earlier that Walsh and Trump have maintained economic discussions for a long time, but said Trump will not put pressure on the Federal Reserve. Trump later denied the reports, saying that he had only had a brief conversation with Walsh a few days ago. Currently, the Federal Reserve said it is still delaying disclosure of the chairman's schedule in accordance with established rules. The market is concerned about whether Walsh will add relevant information and whether this will affect external confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve.

2d ago