高盛 · 2374

Goldman Sachs: Demand for gold bullish options has surged, or amplified fluctuations in gold prices

Comparing news, Goldman Sachs analysts said in the report that demand for bullish gold options has surged, increasing the risk of sharp fluctuations in gold prices. Analysts such as Lina Thomas wrote in the report that the increase in the volume of gold bullish options trading forms a price amplification mechanism for the two-way fluctuation of gold prices. Therefore, we still believe that the forecast for gold to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 faces significant upward risks, but there is also a greater two-way fluctuation in the gold price increase.

21h ago

The wave of AI infrastructure financing is competing with US bonds for long-term capital, and market concerns are driving up interest rate pressure

Comparing news, AI infrastructure investment is becoming a new variable in the US bond market. As tech giants expand the construction of data centers, chips, and computing power, AI companies' demand for financing grew rapidly, and they began to compete with the US government for capital from core bond buyers such as insurance companies, pensions, and long-term asset management institutions. According to the data, as of August, the issuance of US investment-grade corporate bonds reached about 1.7 trillion US dollars, a record high for the same period. According to Goldman Sachs data, the four major US technology companies have issued more than 170 billion US dollars in bonds since this year, which is more than the full year of 2025. Meanwhile, Broadcom is seeking chip and infrastructure financing for AI companies such as Anthropic, and the potential debt may be close to $100 billion. Market institutions pointed out that AI brought not only an increase in the supply of US bonds, but also a long-term expansion of supply in the entire bond market. When the government and technology companies simultaneously increase long-term financing needs, and the long-term capital pool is limited, the market may require higher returns to attract buyers. St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mussalem said earlier that capital competition is forming between the US government's financing needs and AI infrastructure construction. Recently, the US bond market continued to be under pressure. The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds once rose to 5.34%, a record high since 2007, and the 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.7%. The high interest rate environment is likely to further raise corporate financing costs and influence market pricing for AI companies through valuation discount rates. Meanwhile, US consumption data showed signs of weakness. Walmart's stock price fell about 9% in a single day, the biggest drop since 2022. The reason was that its same-store sales growth rate fell to its lowest level in six years, falling short of market expectations, indicating that consumer spending is slowing down. Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and ongoing inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve's policy faces a dilemma. The US Treasury recently expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, raising the maximum single repurchase limit for 10-20- and 20-year US bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The market believes that the move is more of a signal. It has relieved the pressure on yield in the short term, but it has not changed the long-term supply and demand conflict. Analysts believe that future market attention will focus on US fiscal financing needs, AI capital expenditure expansion, and long-term interest rate trends. If long-term US bond yields continue to rise, the market may rediscuss policy tools such as yield curve control (YCC) or quantitative easing (QE). This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

Goldman Sachs Raises CoreWeave Price Target to $139, Maintains Neutral Rating

Comparative news, according to Goldman Sachs's August 20 research report, CoreWeave's second-quarter revenue was in line with expectations. The EBIT profit margin was 200 basis points higher than the market consensus, and the 2026 revenue guidance exceeded market expectations by 1%. The revenue backlog increased 5% month-on-month to US$104 billion, adding more than US$25 billion in committed orders since the third quarter. Active electricity installed capacity increased from 1 GW in the first quarter to more than 1.5 GW, and the contracted electricity installed capacity reached 4.2 GW. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target from $121 to $139, which has 53% upside from the current share price and maintains a neutral rating. Goldman Sachs believes that CoreWeave's short-term certainty is clear: demand continues to lead supply, intergenerational pricing for old and new GPUs remains high, and production capacity is expanding as scheduled. Next-generation chips (Blackwell, Vera Rubin) continue to hit new highs, and recent A100 contract deliveries have been extended to 2029. The share of enterprise customers has increased (Caterpillar, IBM, Nissan, ZF), and demand for AI computing power is spreading from tech giants to the real economy. Goldman Sachs expects EBITDA to increase from $3.1 billion in 2025 to $31.3 billion in 2028. A neutral rating reflects waiting for software and platform services to become a more definite contributor to profit margins before making more positive judgments.

1d ago

Is 40 trillion just an “appetizer”? The Hynix buyback landed ahead of schedule. Is 130 billion US dollars still ahead?

Source: Wall Street News Editor: Dong Jing Original title: Wall Street interprets Hynix's repurchase plan: Shareholder return of up to 8% next year, or return at least $130 billion to shareholders by 2027 Summary: J.P. Morgan believes that the shareholder return policy was upgraded from “no more than 50% free cash flow” to “no less than 50%”, changing from the upper limit to the lower limit, sending a clear signal to the market: future shareholder returns will only be greater, not less. Goldman Sachs predicts an 8% shareholder return in 2027, and expects an additional repurchase of approximately 7 trillion won in the future. J.P. Morgan expects additional return of over 16% of its market value by the end of 2027. Follow-up focus will be on the results meeting at the end of October. While the market was still debating the continuation of the AI storage cycle, and SK Hynix's stock price plummeted from a June high, the storage giant suddenly threw a huge bomb on the market. A historic repurchase, which was implemented early, reshaped the market's valuation logic for Hynix! SK Hynix officially announced the market's long-awaited shareholder return policy after closing on August 19, 2026 — it plans to repurchase and cancel 40 trillion won worth of shares, involving 24.07 million shares (3.3% of the shares issued as of the end of the second quarter of 2026), equivalent to about US$28.9 billion. This scale is not only the largest share repurchase in the history of a Korean listed company, but also exceeds the approximately 26.5 billion US dollars that Hynix raised through ADR financing in the US in early July this year. According to Chase Trading Desk, the two top Wall Street agencies, J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, both gave highly positive comments on the announcement in their latest research report on August 20. J.P. Morgan believes that the shareholder return policy has been substantially upgraded from “no more than 50%” to “no less than 50%”, and the policy ceiling has become the policy floor. Following the announcement of a 40 trillion won ($29 billion) share repurchase plan, SK Hynix may return at least $130 billion to shareholders by 2027, according to J.P. Morgan Chase. Goldman Sachs predicts a shareholder return of up to 8% in 2027, and expects an additional repurchase of approximately 7 trillion won in the future. Both J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs maintain buying ratings: J.P. Morgan's target price is 2.75 million won (about 84% upside compared to the current price), and Goldman Sachs's target price is 3.5 million won (implying an upward margin of about 133%). The next key catalyst is the third quarter results conference call at the end of October 2026, when the company will reveal a more complete roadmap for shareholder returns. Analysts believe that this aggressive capital action directly proved to Wall Street that the company is “printing money” faster than market expectations. For the stock price, which has plummeted 49% since its high on June 22, this not only completely offset the dilution effect of the recent ADR issuance, but also established a valuation bottom (current annualized price-earnings ratio of only 3.8 times). The scale of the repurchase: The largest in history and earlier than expected. J.P. Morgan analyst Jay Kwon clearly stated that the 40 trillion won repurchase announcement “landed earlier than expected” — previously, the market generally expected the announcement to be released around the end of September, but the company chose to directly disclose it after closing on August 19, showing management's high level of confidence in the company's cash flow situation. In terms of scale, this repurchase has multiple historical significance: 40 trillion won is the largest share repurchase announced by a Korean listed company so far; equivalent to US$28.9 billion, higher than the approximately US$26.5 billion raised by Hynix's US ADR offering in early July, which means that the company actually used the repurchase to “hedge” the previous equity dilution; this amount is equivalent to 63% of the rolling FCF (operating cash flow minus capital expenses) over the past 12 months, & nbsp; It is higher than the previous “no more than 50%” FCF allocation limit policy. At the same time, J.P. Morgan Chase pointed out that if viewed from a valuation perspective, the price-earnings ratio corresponding to Hynix's current stock price is 6.4 times (based on adjusted earnings per share for the past 12 months) or 3.8 times (based on annualized adjusted earnings per share for the first half of 2026). This valuation level can be regarded as a reference benchmark for management to initiate repurchases. Policy upgrade: From “ceiling” to “floor”, the core policy change in this announcement is that the shareholder return ratio statement was upgraded from “up to 50% (no more than 50%)” to “50%”...

1d ago22#SK Hynix #J.P. Morgan Street

Goldman Sachs: The US Treasury can reduce long-term debt by 20 to 40 bps, but it is difficult to change the final direction

Comparing news, Goldman Sachs MarketStrats believes that the US Treasury's expansion of long-term US bond repurchases can indeed ease long-term pressure in stages. Referring to OperationTwist in 1961 and the term extension plan in 2011, policy instruments have historically brought about a 10-20 bps decline in long-term interest rates; Goldman Sachs judged that a phased decline of 20-40 bps in long-term returns is also possible through repurchases, adjustments to the issuance period, and balance sheet management. But Goldman Sachs is cautious about long-term results. Behind the current rise in long-term interest rates, the driving force is not only a technical mismatch between supply and demand, but also continuing fiscal deficits, inflationary uncertainty, and a rise in the center to balance real interest rates. The report also emphasizes that AI capital expenditure, data center construction, power infrastructure, and re-industrialization are also continuing to drive the capital needs of the whole society. Repurchases by the Ministry of Finance can ease the long-term supply that the market needs to absorb in the short term, but it is difficult to change the general trend of capital becoming more expensive and long-term interest rates rising at the center.

1d ago

Broadcom plans to raise more than 60 billion US dollars, and the AI chip financing scale may reach 100 billion US dollars

According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, Broadcom is negotiating an AI chip financing deal worth more than $60 billion with several lenders that will help AI companies, including Anthropic, obtain chips and other critical AI infrastructure. According to people familiar with the matter, the financing plan could include about $30 billion in subprime debt and about $60 billion to $70 billion in high-security debt. Broadcom will guarantee part of the advanced guarantee debt. If calculated on the scale currently discussed, the overall financing scale could reach up to 100 billion US dollars. Apollo and Blackstone are in talks with Broadcom to participate in this funding. According to the plan, the relevant debt may be issued by a special purpose vehicle (SPV), the transaction may also proceed in stages, and the specific size and structure may still change. The financing continues the AI infrastructure financing cooperation model previously established by Broadcom, Apollo, and Blackstone. Previously, the three parties had completed a financing of approximately $35 billion through the AI XPV platform. Investors such as Apollo and Blackstone funded the purchase of customized AI chips and then leased the chips to Anthropic, while Broadcom supported most of the debt, enabling advanced debt to receive investment grade ratings and reduce financing costs. The partnership will ultimately support more than 20 gigawatts of computational capacity building, corresponding to the size of infrastructure equivalent to the power generation capacity of about 20 nuclear power plants, and is expected to require hundreds of billions of dollars. This potential funding further highlights the huge demand for capital for AI infrastructure construction. Recently, Nvidia also announced that financial institutions, including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs, are raising more than 500 billion US dollars to support the expansion of the AI industry. The CEO of Broadcom previously said that the company expects AI chip sales to exceed $100 billion in 2027. As Broadcom continues to receive orders for customized AI chips from companies such as OpenAI, it is further expanding its competition with Nvidia in the AI chip and data center infrastructure market.

1d ago

Source: Citi may become one of the core underwriters for Anthropic's IPO

Comparing the news, people familiar with the matter revealed that the artificial intelligence company Anthropic plans to bring Citigroup to join its primary underwriting team for its initial public offering. If successful, Citi will co-assume core underwriting roles with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan Chase. Anthropic is likely to file a listing application with regulators as early as the end of this month.

1d ago

Whoever sings down Anthropic may be disappointed

Author: Alan Walker, Silicon Valley Original title: Is Anthropic's Growth Slowing Down? Source of controversy. Claude Code ARR tracking chart produced by TickerTrends. The latest data is $15.12 billion for the week of August 10, 2026, accounting for 21.9% of Anthropic's total ARR. Please note: This is an estimate from a third party agency and is not an official disclosure of Anthropic. The first section below explains how important this difference is. Alan Walker from Silicon Valley made an appointment for dinner in Hong Kong. After some hard work, he discovered that this picture had been retweeted more than 30 times, and the matching statement was similar — “Anthropic's growth has leveled off; 2 trillion dollars is a bubble.” Alan saved the image, zoomed it in, and looked at it again. The problem isn't in this picture. This picture is very well done, and the data is probably done seriously. The problem is that almost everyone who retweeted it was using it to answer a question it couldn't answer at all. 01 Let's first figure out who made this picture, there is a Claude icon in the upper left corner. The color scheme is Claude's familiar orange. At first glance, it looks like an official product. It's not. The author of this picture is TickerTrends and has his name written in the upper right corner. It is a third-party data tracking agency that uses various external signals (application data, payment panels, recruitment, channel caliber, etc.) to estimate the revenue of an unlisted company. The line in the picture is written very honestly: “tracked allocation” -- the percentage of allocations that have been tracked. Let's be clear: Anthropic has never publicly disclosed Claude Code's individual ARR numbers, not once. Every point on this curve has been estimated by an outsider. For example, this is like someone using “long queues at the entrance of a restaurant every day” to estimate its turnover and then draw a beautiful weekly curve. The length of the team does correlate with turnover, but in the middle there is turnover rate, customer unit price, takeout ratio, private room business — you see that the team is three short weeks, and the kitchen is probably being renovated in those three weeks. What is more important is the caliber itself. ARR's algorithm is “revenue for the most recent period times 12.” Enterprise software contracts are not executed evenly every day; they are signed batch by batch. Big orders signed at the end of a quarter will jump a week's curve by a large margin; if the next quarter's big orders aren't signed, the curve will go sideways. Weekly ARR tracking is extremely insensitive to this kind of blocky landing—it will paint the “pace of signing” as a “change in demand.” In a nutshell, what you have in your hand is an unofficial weekly map estimated by an outsider, with a very blunt caliber. Judging by the weight of the “bubble” under it is tantamount to using body temperature to measure blood pressure. 02 I hit myself in the face on this picture. I haven't seen anyone mention it, but it's the most interesting part of the whole thing. The picture shows two numbers: Claude Code is $15.12 billion, or 21.9% of Anthropic's total ARR. By dividing: calculate 15.12 billion ÷ 21.9% = about $69 billion. This is Anthropic's total ARR for the week ending August 10, implied by this image. The official caliber figures reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC on August 17 were — $65 billion at the end of July. Clear: This chart, which is being used to prove “slowing growth,” its own implied total number of companies is 4 billion US dollars higher than the official figure ten days ago. Further 10 days until today, if the trend continues, more than 70 billion is a reasonable estimate (this sentence is an inference, not data). In one sentence, people who retweeted only read the number 151.2 and the height of the column, skipping the 21.9% next to it. And that 21.9% said: This company went a step further when everyone shouted “it's slowing down.” I only believe in the two numbers on the same picture that is beneficial to my opinion; this is not called analysis. 03 You are looking at the picture below. The money in the picture above has the upper and lower two pieces. Above is the absolute amount (how many billion dollars), and below is the percentage change (how much more than a percent increase from four weeks ago). The vast majority of people's reasoning is: below...

1d agoWendy#Anthropic #ARR #IPOs #MiniMax

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit for the first half of the year was HK$10.568 billion, up 24% year on year

In comparison, on August 19, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced its 2026 interim results. In the first half of 2026, revenue and other income reached HK$16.702 billion, up 19% year on year; profit attributable to shareholders was HK$10.568 billion, up 24% year on year. Both figures set new records. Boosted by performance, the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed at HK$414.6, up 2.37%. The results were driven by strong demand for corporate financing and a rise in spot, derivatives and Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect transactions. A total of 87 IPOs were listed in the first half of the year, raising a total of HK$212.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94%. The average daily turnover of the spot market rose 18% year on year to HK$283 billion, a record high for the same period; the average daily turnover of derivatives contracts increased 6% to 1.8 million; and the average daily turnover of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached RMB 345.3 billion, more than double the same period last year. Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase maintained “buy” and “gain” ratings respectively. Prior to the announcement of the results, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the contract was renewed with Chief Executive Chan Yi-ting for three years. The new term will begin on March 1, 2027 to February 28, 2030, and has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission. During the period, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange promoted consultation on shortening the stock settlement cycle, simplifying each trading unit, and introduced the first ETF to track the “HKEx Technology 100 Index”, and announced the launch of Chinese treasury bond futures. In response to the extension of the trading period, Chen Yiting said that the derivatives market is already in operation until 3 a.m. the next day, priority will be given to connecting with the North American market, and that the spot market requires more thorough communication.

2d ago

Goldman Sachs: The price of the September rate hike was hawkish, and the pressure on US stocks came from repeated interest rate expectations

Comparing news, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius believes in the latest opinion that the market's pricing of the September FOMC rate hike is still hawkish. The bank determined that unless there is a clear reversal in the August data released in early September, the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September 15-16 meeting is already very low. The reasons given by Goldman Sachs include: employment growth is clearly slowing down, consumption momentum is cooling down, and the inflation trend is more likely to continue improving. From Goldman Sachs's perspective, recent data is weakening the reasons for interest rate hikes. Potential employment growth in the US in July is said to be only about 5,000 people, lower than the level needed to maintain the balance of the labor market; weak retail sales mean that consumption growth may slow to 1% to 1.5% in the second half of the year; core PCE inflation is still expected to gradually decline and approach the 2% target in 2027. Hatzius believes that after two consecutive months of weak employment and inflation data, the threshold for dovish commissioners to switch to supporting interest rate hikes will be high. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting brought new disturbances to the market. The minutes of the July meeting released in the early morning of August 20, Beijing time showed that the number of officials supporting further tightening of the policy increased compared to June. Many officials believe that if inflation does not continue to cool down, higher interest rates may still be needed in the future. This makes it difficult for the market to directly bet on Goldman Sachs's interpretation of easing, and short-term interest rates and technology stock valuations will continue to be repeatedly affected by policy expectations.

2d ago