DraftKings · 94

Crypto, AI and betting firms drive 2026 midterm elections corporate political spending to record highs

Comparatively, according to Reuters, in the 15 months up to the end of the first quarter of 2026, US companies have invested a record $517 million in the 2026 House of Representatives and Senate elections, surpassing the previous high of 461 million US dollars in two years of the 2024 election cycle. Together, the crypto, tech, and online betting industries contributed at least $294 million, making them a major force in shaping the midterm elections. Fairshake Super PAC, which is mainly funded by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z, had $193 million in capital at the beginning of the year; a16z donated more than $81 million to crypto and AI-related PACs. Elon Musk has invested over $90 million, and Meta has donated $65 million to four super PACs. AI-related organization Leading the Future raised $140 million, and Anthropic donated at least $40 million through dark money nonprofits. Online sports betting companies DraftKings, FanDuel and others donated over $72 million. AdImpact expects total political advertising spending to reach a record $11.6 billion in this midterm election. Related industries spend unlimited amounts of money through super PACs, associated PACs, and dark money non-profit organizations for advertising, voter mobilization, etc. Critics believe this amplifies the influence of niche issues such as crypto regulation, data center energy, and betting regulation. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

2d agoburnking

DraftKings Q2 revenue of $1,443 billion fell 5% year over year, predicting that the market business growth rate exceeded expectations

In comparison, DraftKings announced financial results for the second quarter of 2026, with revenue of US$1,443 million, down 5% year on year, mainly due to customer-friendly sports results and increased investment in customer acquisition promotions; net loss of US$67.61 million, net profit of US$158 million in the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA of US$115 million, compared to US$301 million in the same period last year. Sports consumer transactions reached $13.1 billion, up 15% year over year, monthly active payment users (MUP) of about 3.6 million, up 9% year over year, and average revenue per user (ARPMUP) fell 13% to $132. CEO Jason Robins said that the forecast market business growth rate has exceeded expectations since its launch in December last year. The relevant customer indicators are similar to sports betting performance, user acquisition and retention are strong, and the super app has been launched nationwide. The company maintained its full-year revenue of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and the adjusted EBITDA of $700 to $900 million unchanged. DraftKings currently provides mobile sports betting services in 27 US states, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico, covering about 53% of the US population, and iGaming covers 5 states. The Canadian market already covers Alberta and Ontario, accounting for about 51% of the Canadian population.

15d ago

Data: Polymarket has 43.1 million monthly visits, and the on-chain prediction market is becoming an important information platform

Comparing news, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, posted an article on the X platform saying that in addition to media reports, Polymarket also has several notable developments. Over the past month, the Polymarket website reached 43.1 million visits (Similarweb data), surpassing the combined visits of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi, and has become one of the most visited fintech apps in the world, while its marketing investment is only a fraction of many leading fintech and prediction platforms. Nick Tomaino believes that Polymarket's growth is mainly due to its value as a “source of information,” and users are gaining a deeper understanding of real-world events by predicting the market. Polymarket currently has a leading position in the on-chain prediction market. The transparency and global accessibility brought about by the on-chain architecture is the key to driving the prediction market to achieve “better information and more realistic perception.” Furthermore, he pointed out that the US application of Polymarket is still in its early stages, but the product and commercialization are gradually maturing and beginning to enter a stage of rapid development.

18d ago

Big short Michael Burry's latest holdings: increase shorting Micron and Nvidia, and increase their holdings in Lululemon and many other stocks

Comparing news, Michael Burry, the prototype of the big shorts, revealed his latest personal position adjustments today through his Substack account, saying that he has further increased his short positions with Micron Technology (MU), with an average opening price of about $880; at the same time, he continues to increase his short exposure to Nvidia (NVDA) and shorted the semiconductor ETF SOXX, with an average price of about $506. At the same time, Burry has also increased long positions on a number of individual stocks. He added Lululemon (LULU) at an average price of about $118, DraftKings (DKNG) at an average price of about $23.40, and Zoetis (ZTS) at an average price of about $76; in addition, he further increased his Flutter (FLUT) holdings. Notably, Burry has not adjusted its existing positions with Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir (PLTR) and continues to keep its original positions unchanged.

22d ago

Pennsylvania plans to ban quiz companies from providing liquidity to forecast markets or influencing DraftKings and Flutter layouts

In comparison, Pennsylvania Representative Tarik Khan proposed HB 2711 on July 22, which was co-signed by 24 bipartisan lawmakers (20 Democrats, 4 Republicans), and submitted to the House Consumer Protection, Technology, and Utilities Committee. The bill proposes to prohibit the provision of predictive market services to Pennsylvania residents during the regular business of liquidity providers or market makers, extend the scope of restrictions to parent companies, subsidiaries, related parties and joint ventures, and prohibit prediction platforms from sharing revenue with quiz companies. The move could affect sports betting groups such as DraftKings (which has acquired CFTC-registered Railbird Technologies and launched its own DKEx exchange) and Flutter, which are entering the predictive market market market. The bill also sets a minimum age limit of 21, prohibits contracts involving high school sports, events involving minors, and death markets, and requires platforms to establish anti-fraud and insider information abuse protection mechanisms. The Act does not establish a licensing system, and the law is enforced by the Attorney General of Guizhou. Earlier, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2:1 in April that the federal Mercantile Exchange Act took precedence over state betting laws, but Pennsylvania has joined the 40-state league arguing that sports contracts should be regulated at the state level.

25d ago

“Big short” Michael Burry increases short positions such as Nvidia and Micron

In comparison, investment tracking account Michael Burry Stock Tracker revealed on X that “big short” Michael Burry's recently disclosed positions showed that it increased its short positions in Micron Technology (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), Caterpillar (CAT), and semiconductor ETF (SOXX). The corresponding prices were $933.86, $210.28, $893.49, and $535.83, respectively; while increasing its holdings Flutter (FLUT), DraftKings (DKNG), and Molina Healthcare (MOH) long positions were maintained, and short positions in Tesla (TSLA), Palantir (PLTR), and NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) remained unchanged.

27d ago
Is it worth 40 billion US dollars to predict the market?

Is it worth 40 billion US dollars to predict the market?

Source: Fintech Blueprint Author: Laurence Smith Compiled and collated: Is BitPushNews a sports betting or a new type of financial market? Kalshi is in the midst of a new round of funding. Just seven weeks after completing the $1 billion Series F round at a valuation of $22 billion, the Financial Times reports that the forecasting market operator is in negotiations at a valuation of around $40 billion and is likely to complete settlement in the third quarter as soon as possible. This is definitely breaking news! Additional background information: Kalshi's valuation in October last year was still $5 billion, reached $11 billion in December, and soared to $22 billion in May of this year. Achieving an 8x valuation reshaping in as little as 18 months is extremely rare. According to reports, the company is currently in negotiations with the bank on an IPO (initial public offering), and CEO Tarek Mansour said the IPO could take place after 2027. Background and current situation Many analysts talk about Kalshi and Polymarket, usually from a regulatory and market share perspective. This time, we want to explore something more essential: by running very different economic machines, the two companies ended up reaching a similar end — with a huge institutional shareholder roster and multi-billion dollar monthly trading volume. One charges about 1%, and the other has an annualized book revenue of $2 billion, and has no fees for the past five years. At the same time, Kalshi's business model is simple: it is an exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and charges about 1% for every matched transaction. There is no bookmaker risk, and the balance sheet is not affected by the outcome of the transaction — it is simply taxed on trading volume, which has always performed amazingly. As of April 2026, its annualized transaction volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase over the previous year, and the company's annualized revenue also surpassed $2 billion. Based on a $40 billion asking price valuation, this is approximately 20 times the market-sales ratio (P/S). Expensive, but not unjustifiably — Coinbase and Robinhood have traded at similar multiples. The last time we reported on these two companies, Kalshi's valuation was double that of Polymarket. Since then, this valuation ratio has hardly changed. But the real core issue is the quality of revenue. Are these platforms just huge online casinos, or are they a new type of business that is more deeply connected to the information and financial markets? For Kalshi, sports contracts account for around 65% of its trading volume, but that is also causing them trouble. The Kentucky lawsuit alleges that 89% of Kalshi's 2025 trading volume came from sports, which is the type of contract the states are trying to ban. Arizona filed criminal charges in March, a Massachusetts judge banned Kalshi's sports market in January, and Nevada extended its ban. The company's entire legal theory — that the incident contract is a swap (swap) contract subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC — is currently undergoing judicial proceedings in more than 10 US states at the same time, and a federal judge in Michigan recently ruled that the sports prediction market is not a swap. The dispute is heading to the Supreme Court, and the premise underpinning its overvaluation is that Kalshi must win this legal case. Kalshi has established a truly profitable market, but its economic benefits are entirely dependent on this legal classification. The 1% rate only makes sense if Kalshi remains the only federally approved compliant venue. However, DraftKings launched its own exchange this week, Robinhood has already entered the event contract space, and CME (CME) is also suing the CFTC over Kalshi's cryptocurrency perpetual contract. A triumph in court would lead to competition, which in turn would encroach on this 1% rate; failure in court directly threatens the trading volume base on which the fee is based. How to play Polymarket Polymarket takes the exact opposite strategy. In October of last year, when the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)...

39d agoWendy#IPOs #Kalshi #Polymarket #Tarek Mansour #valuations #Predicting the market #Forecast market topics

Bernstein: Predicting the rapid integration of market technology stacks, or triggering a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the field of sports event contracts

Comparing news, according to a CoinDesk report, Wall Street broker Bernstein pointed out in a recent report that the rapid integration of predictive market technology stacks is increasing the possibility of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in sports event contracts and financial markets. The report said that in the past eight months, major forecasting platforms have been developing in the direction of simultaneously controlling customer distribution and exchange infrastructure. Although Kalshi and Polymarket have core technology stacks, their distribution capabilities are lagging behind and may be potential acquisition targets. Recent moves include DraftKings buying Railbird to launch DKEx, Robinhood's partnership with Susquehanna to create Rothera, and Coinbase's acquisition of The Clearing Company. Bernstein believes that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently in a relatively favorable position in the competitive landscape. Both have a large consumer user base and fully owned regulated infrastructure, while Kalshi and Polymarket are seen as potential targets of mergers and acquisitions due to lack of large-scale distribution capabilities. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

54d agoburnking

Kalshi CEO: Polymarket is not a major competitor, CME, Robinhood and DraftKings are a bigger threat

Comparing the news, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in an interview with Front Office Sports that he does not see Polymarket as a major competitor, but is more concerned about the threat posed by CME Group, Robinhood, and sports betting operators. According to Bank of America analyst data, Kalshi accounts for about 91% of the US regulated forecast market, holds about $1 billion of the industry's approximately $1.6 billion outstanding contracts, and lists about 97% of the active market. Kalshi traded around $9.8 billion over the past 30 days, close to Polymarket's $9.9 billion. CME launched FanDuel Predicts in December last year; after building a prediction market based on the Kalshi exchange in 2025, Robinhood began switching some of its contracts to its Rothera platform in partnership with Susquehanna. Mansour called on Polymarket to be included in the regulatory framework, saying its offshore platform's insider trading cases hurt the entire industry. The CFTC issued a 267-page rule proposal on June 10 to allow multiple sports contracts but prohibit in-game betting and pre-college sports. The public comment period is 45 days.

65d ago