FOMC · 924

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: FOMC minutes are hawkish, and the market focuses on high interest rates for longer

Comparing news, Lewis Huang, chief analyst of Bitget CFD, said in a live broadcast yesterday that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting overall sent an eagle signal. Despite keeping interest rates unchanged at this meeting, many officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to fall back to the 2% target, further policy tightening or even raising interest rates again is still a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term, but should re-evaluate the impact of “maintaining high interest rates for longer” on the US dollar, US bond yields, gold, and US stock valuations. Lewis Huang pointed out that the future direction of the market will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rises and the job market remains resilient, US dollar and US bond yields may strengthen, and highly valued assets such as gold and Nasdaq 100 may be under pressure; conversely, if inflation cools down significantly and employment and consumption weaken at the same time, the market will once again raise the Fed's easing expectations, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to be supported. He recommended that CFD traders focus on the trend of US two-year treasury bond yields, the US dollar index and gold, wait for price breakouts and retracement confirmation after major data is released, avoid chasing the first wave of fluctuations, and strictly control leverage and stop-loss risks.

1d ago

Federal Reserve Officials Downplay Risk of US Debt Selloff, but September Policy Disagreements Remain

Comparing news, US bonds have recently been drastically sold off, and long-term yields once rose to the highest level since 2007, yet Federal Reserve officials have downplayed concerns about the so-called damage to the market's policy credibility. San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly and St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mussalem both believe that the increase in long-term US bond yields is more due to government financing needs and capital requirements brought about by AI infrastructure construction, rather than inflation expectations getting out of control. However, the two clearly disagree on the September monetary policy. Daly believes that recent inflation, retail sales, and employment data have mitigated the need for further policy tightening. Currently, the policy is in a good state, and there is insufficient pre-emptive basis for interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts. Mussalem, on the other hand, is hawkish, saying that the underlying inflation rate is still at a high level of 2.5% to 3%. The current policy may be close to neutral or even loose, and revealed that it is more inclined to raise interest rates at the July meeting. At present, the market's expectations for the September rate hike have cooled down drastically, and the relevant probability has dropped from over 70% at the end of July to about 30%. It is worth noting that neither of them has the right to vote in the FOMC this year, and 3 officials already opposed keeping interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, indicating that the internal policy differences of the Federal Reserve have not been resolved.

1d ago

Goldman Sachs: The price of the September rate hike was hawkish, and the pressure on US stocks came from repeated interest rate expectations

Comparing news, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius believes in the latest opinion that the market's pricing of the September FOMC rate hike is still hawkish. The bank determined that unless there is a clear reversal in the August data released in early September, the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September 15-16 meeting is already very low. The reasons given by Goldman Sachs include: employment growth is clearly slowing down, consumption momentum is cooling down, and the inflation trend is more likely to continue improving. From Goldman Sachs's perspective, recent data is weakening the reasons for interest rate hikes. Potential employment growth in the US in July is said to be only about 5,000 people, lower than the level needed to maintain the balance of the labor market; weak retail sales mean that consumption growth may slow to 1% to 1.5% in the second half of the year; core PCE inflation is still expected to gradually decline and approach the 2% target in 2027. Hatzius believes that after two consecutive months of weak employment and inflation data, the threshold for dovish commissioners to switch to supporting interest rate hikes will be high. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting brought new disturbances to the market. The minutes of the July meeting released in the early morning of August 20, Beijing time showed that the number of officials supporting further tightening of the policy increased compared to June. Many officials believe that if inflation does not continue to cool down, higher interest rates may still be needed in the future. This makes it difficult for the market to directly bet on Goldman Sachs's interpretation of easing, and short-term interest rates and technology stock valuations will continue to be repeatedly affected by policy expectations.

2d ago

[Comparative Daily News Picks] OpenAI CFO: The company will go public in 2027 or sooner; Bitcoin's short-term rise hits $70,000; Trump: SEC Chairman is pushing to introduce Hyperliquid into the US; US federal government debt exceeds $40 trillion; Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Multiple officials think interest rate hikes may be needed if necessary

Daily AI · Crypto · Macro · Market News, Bitpush helps you focus ↓ AI · News [OpenAI CFO: The company will go public in 2027 or sooner] In comparison news, OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Flair said that OpenAI plans to become a listed company in 2027, but if the business grows at an accelerated pace, it may go public earlier in the morning. Flair said the IPO was a milestone and method of financing. In March of this year, the company closed $122 billion in financing, providing greater flexibility for future growth. [Nvidia plans to invest in AI data labeling company Mercor, financing valuation may reach 20 billion US dollars] According to The Information, according to a person familiar with the matter, Nvidia has already discussed investment matters with data labeling service provider Mercor. Mercor helped the chip designer develop an open source AI model. The investment will be part of Mercor's round of financing valued at $20 billion. Existing investors, General Catalyst, have been negotiating to lead this funding round. Mercor's past revenue came from closed-source AI model developers such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. However, Mercor's revenue from Nvidia is growing as Nvidia prioritizes the development of Nemotron's open source model. Nemotron aims to compete with the world's most advanced open source models. According to people familiar with the matter, Nvidia paid Mercor tens of millions of dollars last quarter. In addition to Mercor, Nvidia also uses data from other data vendors such as Turing and Scale, and also has its own in-house data team. [US CFTC Seeks Public Opinions on AI Hashrate Futures] In comparison, as industry giants begin to accept computing power (compute) as a tradable asset, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking public comments on hashrate futures contracts. A number of exchanges, including CME (CME), Intercontinental Exchange, and the emerging fintech company Architect Financial Technologies, have announced plans to launch relevant contracts after receiving regulatory approval. According to these exchanges, the establishment of a futures market with computational power will help end users and speculators hedge against energy shortages or other issues that may affect the technological progress of AI developers. In the crypto market [Bitcoin's short-term rise hit $70,000], according to market data, Bitcoin's short-term rally hit $70,000, but now it has fallen back to $69,800, and the 24-hour increase has increased to 8.08%. [Trump: SEC Chairman is promoting the introduction of Hyperliquid into the US] In comparison, HyperliquidNews posted an article on the X platform saying, “The SEC Chairman is promoting the introduction of Hyperliquid into the US.” [Coinbase CEO: Looking forward to the CLARITY Act being passed on September 15, followed by a new bull market] In comparison, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently released a vision board on the X platform saying that he expects the CLARITY bill to receive strong bipartisan voting support on September 15, then usher in Upmonth and start the next round of the cryptocurrency bull market, and stated “as predicted.” The CLARITY Act aims to provide a clearer market structure and regulatory framework for US crypto assets. Armstrong's statement reflects its expectations for regulatory progress and a recovery in market sentiment. Macro · Agency [US federal government debt exceeds 40 trillion US dollars] compared news that as US government borrowing has increased at an unprecedented rate in history, the total amount of US treasury bonds has exceeded 40 trillion US dollars. Despite Trump's promises to control government spending, rising debt has raised investors' concerns about the state of America's public finances. According to data released by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday, the total US federal debt broke through the $40 trillion threshold on Tuesday. Over the past year, its debt has increased by $3 trillion, which is the fastest growth rate in history if the pandemic period is not taken into account. “It's like that huge warning light on a car engine,” Responsible Federation...

2d agoBitpushNews#Compare Daily Picks

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Walsh pushes to reduce the number of policy meetings during the year

Comparing news, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh proposed an idea: reduce the number of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meetings from 8 to 6 per year. According to the minutes of the meeting, “The Chairman pointed out that scheduling six meetings a year, approximately every two months, will allow more information to accumulate between the two meetings than the current arrangement, while also leaving more time for policy makers and Federal Reserve staff to study and consider strategic issues of monetary policy.” Subsequently, Walsh sought the opinions of committee members on the idea. The minutes clearly state that the number of meetings will not be adjusted this year. Reducing the number of policy meetings would mean a major change in the way the Federal Reserve operates.

2d ago

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Multiple Officials Think Rate Hikes May Be Needed If Necessary

Comparing news, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that several officials preferred to raise interest rates last month, while many officials said that if inflation fails to fall, monetary policy will need to be further tightened. However, at the July meeting, uncertainty still seriously affected the judgment of Federal Reserve officials. Meeting minutes show: “Regarding the outlook for monetary policy, participants reiterated that their interpretation of future data will be a key component in policy discussions.” The FOMC voted 9 to 3 in July to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Logan, Hamak, and Kashkari voted against, arguing for a 25 basis point increase in interest rates. Two other regional Federal Reserve presidents who did not have the right to vote in July — Schmid and Mussalem — have since said they would support a rate hike at that meeting if they had the right to vote at that time. Most of the policy discussions at the July meeting revolved around different judgments about future inflation trends. “Most participants expect inflation to gradually decline for the rest of the year as the effects of tariffs and previous increases in energy prices subside, but many participants pointed out that there is still a possibility that inflation will continue to be at a high level,” the meeting minutes said. Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at least once in 2026? Yes No Powered by Moment Predict. Earn points. Unlock the Airdrop Edit Delete OtherWill the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at least once in 2026? yesNoResolution Criteria (Clear & Objective) Yes Resolves if the Federal Open Market Committee considers the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points or more at any A scheduled or unscheduled meeting between August 20, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). No Resolves if the Target Range Remains Remains Remains Remaining (or is Cut) for the entire remainder of 2026.Source of TruthOfficial FOMC Statements and Implementation Notes published on Federalreserve.gov. The Final Decision is proposed by the last FOMC meeting of 2026 (currently scheduled for December) .other2027-012027-01- 01T 07:59:59.999 Z https://moment.vision/mapi/uploads/openai/images/20260819183415_4982cbf7483bc030.jpg6a85f73873a5b8c9e4e21766

2d ago

Citi downplays the hawkish nature of the meeting minutes, and J.P. Morgan is concerned about the differences in inflation within the Federal Reserve

Comparative news. According to Kim Ju's report, at the July meeting, three Federal Reserve officials voted against the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. They believe that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates because the core inflation rate was still as high as 2.6% at the time, which is significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target. But the data released in August is weakening their reasons for supporting interest rate hikes. The July CPI report showed that after excluding volatile food and energy prices, core prices rose 2.5% year over year, the lowest level since March 2021. Meanwhile, the July employment report showed that the US lost 23,000 jobs in the month. Andrew Hollenhorst, the US chief economist at Citigroup Research, said that these data will make it difficult for the minutes of the meeting to drastically change the market's currently reduced probability expectations of interest rate hikes. However, the minutes of the meeting will show more clearly the extent of the differences between eagles and pigeons within the Federal Reserve during the July meeting. The minutes of the meeting may reveal how officials will define and assess inflationary pressures in the future. Michael Ferrori, chief US economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, wrote that the minutes of the meeting may give us an idea of how much the other FOMC members actually tolerate higher than target inflation.

2d ago

Bank of America chief: US debt is approaching 40 trillion US dollars. Going long on gold is the best solution right now. AI bonds have become an counterintuitive target for shorting

Comparing the news, Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett identified the upcoming US Treasury bond breaking through $40 trillion as the core narrative line of the current market, and expressed his views on the topic of worries beginning at 40. Interest expenses on US debt have reached 1.4 trillion US dollars in the past 12 months, and are about to surpass social security as the federal government's largest single expense, while the 30-year US bond issue hit a 25-year high with a yield of 5.126% last week. Hartnett pointed out that unless the 5-year US Treasury yield falls below 3.25%, the worsening trend in interest spending will not be reversed, and it is almost impossible for this to happen without a major deflationary shock or recession. He summed up the absurdity of reality in one sentence: US stocks hit a record high on the same day, and US bonds were issued at the highest yield in 25 years on the same day. Under an asset allocation framework that is far from bonds, away from the US dollar, and fully encumbered AI, Hartnett clearly listed going long on gold as the best solution to combat the depreciation of the US dollar, the collapse of bonds, and asset inflation. At the same time, a counterintuitive transaction was presented — shorting AI bonds. The logic is that capital expenditure of more than 1 trillion US dollars is compounded by negative free cash flow. AI companies must continue to issue bonds on a large scale for financing. This transaction will be much more profitable than going long on AI stocks. Data from Nomura Strategist confirms the pressure on the bond market: AI and data center related bond issuance has reached about 12 times the average annual level in 2015-2024, and $269 billion since the beginning of the year, which is double the full year of 2025. The positive structural influx of corporate bonds pushes the yield curve on US bonds and crowds out buyers of long-term treasury bonds. Hartnett also noticed that long-standing cold assets such as REITs, biotech, regional banks, and small-cap stocks are quietly outperforming, and the market is peaking in pricing yields. Key future market points include the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, the September FOMC meeting, and the Bank of Japan meeting. The final judgment is that if the Republican Party holds the Senate and the Texas governor, the stock market, especially the AI sector, will rise further to the level of bubble in 2027; if the Democratic Party wins on November 3, the stock market, dollar, and bond yields will face a sharp drop of more than 10% before the end of the year.

5d ago

Bitunix Analyst: Federal Reserve Minutes and PMI Relapsed, Hormuz Situation Affects Oil Prices and Global Risk Appetites

Comparing news, this week the market will welcome the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, August PMI, and financial reports from retail giants such as Walmart and Target. Recently, US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data are weak. The market's pricing for the Fed's September rate hike has dropped to about 27%. Goldman Sachs also believes that a September rate hike is very unlikely, and the pressure on short-term interest rates has eased somewhat. However, the FOMC minutes still need to observe the attitude of officials on inflation and energy prices. If the minutes send strong signals, interest rate expectations may still be repriced. On the other hand, whether commercial shipping can actually resume in the Strait of Hormuz will directly affect oil prices and inflation expectations. According to reports, Iran and Oman have made progress on shipping routes, but the actual traffic volume is still far below normal, so it is still diplomatic progress rather than the elimination of supply risks. If shipping continues to resume, the crude oil risk premium is expected to fall; conversely, if negotiations are blocked or the maritime conflict heats up, the rise in oil prices will increase pressure on global inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, US stocks remain high, but the US consumer side has shown some weakness. This week's earnings reports from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot will further verify consumer resilience. Currently, the biggest contradiction in the market is that corporate profits are still strong, but high oil prices, cooling employment, and living costs are reducing the spending capacity of some consumers. If consumption remains resilient, AI and corporate profits can still support US stock valuations; if consumption deteriorates further, the market will re-evaluate the sustainability of corporate profits and high valuations. Overall, the core of the market this week is not a single expectation of interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts, but whether declining monetary policy pressure can offset the pressure on capital costs caused by energy prices, fiscal financing, and long-term interest rates. FOMC minutes, PMI, retail earnings reports, and Hormuz shipping conditions will jointly determine the ability of risky assets to withstand a high valuation environment.

5d ago

Federal Reserve Barkin: Many people at home think the current interest rate level is tight enough to curb inflation

Comparing news, the 2027 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on the economic outlook. Barkin did not specify whether he thought interest rates needed to be raised, but he pointed out that many people in the Federal Reserve think the current interest rate level is tight enough to curb inflation. Barkin also said that there is also reason to believe that price pressure is entrenched, and that it may be necessary to achieve the Fed's goals through weakening demand or interest rate hikes.

9d ago