Crypto market capitalization is soaring, and a raging bull market is on the horizon?
A. Market perspectivesI. Macro Liquidity
Currency liquidity is tightening. Faced with macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, risk aversion in the market escalated, and the 10-year US Treasury yield approached the 5% mark. The US dollar index is rising, and the Fed is still far from cutting interest rates. It is expected that interest rates will not be raised in November, but there is a high probability that interest rates will be raised in January next year. US stocks continued to fall, hitting their lowest level in half a year. The crypto market soared, and its linkage with the US stock market weakened, leaving the high level of independence in the year.
II. Overall market conditions
List of the top 100 market capitalization gains:
BTC has skyrocketed this week, and the market's approval of spot ETFs has become more optimistic. The rise in copycats is rotating, and the hot topics revolve around public chains and meme concepts. The market automatically chose the direction with the least resistance. Public chains are mainly non-ETH-related public chains, such as SOL, MINA, CFX, KUJI, etc., which are characterized by little capital in ambush and easy for bookmakers to trade. However, ETH-related second-tier companies, such as ARB and OP, were shunned by speculative funds because they had more funds to ambush Cancun upgrades in the early stages. At the same time, life on the chain has begun to recover, many new meme coins have begun to emerge, and the meme coin season is coming soon. Value investors like to invest in public chains, retail investors like to invest in emotional memes, and everyone has a good future.
1. PEPE: Recently, the team destroyed $7 million in tokens, and I feel like there will be some action in the future. PEPE has broken through the weekly line, large transaction volume, and high market recognition. Meme coins have the characteristic of being cut 10 times more at the waist and 10 times at the waist, making them suitable for breaking new highs and breaking whole numbers. Other memes, such as Harry Potter bitcon and joe coin, have also increased several times. 2. MINA: A lightweight ZK public chain listed on the Korea Exchange Upbit. The expected effect of South Korea's recent currency listings is obvious. There is generally a multi-fold increase in speculation, such as POLYX, CYBER, etc. 3. TRB: For a domestically produced oracle project, the fundamentals are lackluster. Recently, the price surpassed $100, and the speculation was more than 10 times higher. A few major addresses control 30%, which is a typical stock market. There are also BLZ, INJ, etc. of the same type, so be aware of the risk of emptying.
3. BTC Market1) On-chain data
80% of BTC holding addresses have already made a profit. As can be seen from the Binance Exchange's trading volume, since the fee-free end, this is the second highest level since the beginning of April. As the market nears its year-to-date high, a large number of coin holding addresses have recovered from losses to profits.
The total market value of stablecoins remained flat and rose slightly. In the past week, the market value of USDT, which is the main trading force, has risen by more than 630 million US dollars, and now the market capitalization has exceeded 84 billion US dollars. As long as the trend continues, the market can come out of the bottom.
The long-term trend indicator mVRV-zScore is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profit status of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below key level 1, and holders were generally in the red. The current indicator is 1.03, which has entered the recovery phase.
Net inflows from crypto asset investment products for 4 consecutive weeks. The recent inflow of capital may be related to the news of the launch of a BTC spot ETF in the US, with a total capital of $66 million. SOL saw a further inflow of $15 million last week, making it the most popular altcoin so far this year. Continued concerns about ETH led to an outflow of $7 million, which was the only altcoin to see an outflow last week, in stark contrast to SOL.
2) Futures quotes
Futures funding rate: This week's rate is positive, and the main capital chose to go long. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures holdings: Total BTC holdings rose sharply this week. In sync with the price, the entry of the main capital is optimistic about the future market.
Futures long and short ratio: 0.9. Retail investors are in a vacuum. Retail sentiment is mostly an inverse indicator. Less than 0.7 is more panicked, and above 2.0 is greedy. Long/short fluctuates more than the data, and the reference significance weakens.
3) Spot market
BTC broke through a new yearly high. The bears were liquidated in a series, rapidly increasing the price of BTC from $30,000 to $35,000 in just a few hours. According to the news, BlackRock's spot ETF has received pre-listing preparations. On the technical side, BTC stands at the 28,000 BOLL weekly bull-and-bear dividing line, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The RSI indicator is 85 and has entered the overbought range. Short-term market sentiment is greedy, beware of pullback risks. BTC's market share reached 53%, and 55% is an important hurdle. If the future turns down from 55%, altcoins may rotate to more opportunities.
B. Market dataI. The total amount of locked positions in the public chain
II. TVL share of each public chain
Overall, TVL rose to nearly 500 million US dollars this week, with an increase of nearly 13%. After breaking through layers of resistance last week, BTC directly reached a price close to 36,000. Although this rebound from the bottom has brought unlimited possibilities and hopes to the market, it is still impossible to determine whether the bear market is about to end. This week, the TVL and ETH chains rose nearly 15%, the ARB chain rose 9.2%, the OP chain rose 6.8%, the TRON and POLYGON chains both rose more than 10%, and the SOLANA chain rose by more than 20%. With the exception of the BASE chain, which fell by 1.3%, the remaining mainstream public chains all rose.
III. Locked up volume of each chain protocol1) Status of ETH locked up
2) BSC lock-up volume
3) Polygon lock-up volume
4) Arbitrum lock-up volume
5) Optimism lock-up volume
6) Base lock-up volume
IV. Historical status of ETH gas fees
On-chain transfers cost around $2.43,UniswapThe transaction fee is around $8.27, and OpenSea's transaction fee is around $3.21. Gas usage and transaction fees have risen sharply this week. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap takes the leading position, accounting for 12.82% of the overall market. The rebound at the bottom of the market brings signs and possibilities of recovery to on-chain applications.
5. Changes in NFT market data1) NFT-500 Index
2) The state of the NFT market
3) Share of the NFT trading market
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
Floor prices for leading blue-chip projects rose and fell this week. BAYC and MAYC both rose by more than 5%. With the exception of Azuki, which rose 15%, ClonEx and AOI Engine rose more than 20%. Yawanawa, which rose more than 50% last week, experienced a decline of more than 30% this week. There has been a considerable increase in the trading volume of the NFT market over the past week, but the number of repeat buyers and first-time users who have purchased NFTs continues to decline, and the NFT market has yet to be seen as a clear sign of recovery due to a rebound from the bottom of the general market.
