The artificial intelligence boom is fraught with crises. How should ordinary people deal with it?

Artificial intelligence will become mainstream in 2023—this technology has been around for a long time, but it still has a long way to go to reach people's fantasies about human-like machines in science fiction.

ChatGPT has unquestionably led the artificial intelligence boom this year. This chatbot has shown the world the latest advances in computer science, although not everyone knows how it works or how to use it.

Artificial intelligence pioneer scientist Li Feifei said, “I think this is an inflection point. Historically, 2023 is expected to be remembered for profound changes in technology and public awakening. It also shows how amazing this technology is”.

This year, people are obsessed with figuring out “what is this, how to use it, and what impact does it have? Including all the good, bad, and even horrible effects,” she said.

01.

Panic caused by artificial intelligence

At the beginning of 2023, shortly after the beginning of the new year, the first AI panic began. When classrooms reopened, schools from Seattle to Paris began banning ChatGPT.

Students have begun “asking for advice” from this chatbot, which was released at the end of 2022, asking it to help write papers and answer after-school assignments.

The large-scale language model of artificial intelligence behind technologies such as ChatGPT works by repeatedly guessing the next word in a sentence after “learning” the patterns of a large number of human works.

They often give out some “facts” seriously and wrongly. Judging from the output, it seems so natural that it has aroused people's curiosity and concerns about the next development of artificial intelligence and the possibility that it may be used to carry out tricks and deception.

With the advent of a new batch of generative artificial intelligence tools, concerns have gradually escalated — they can not only write text, but also produce novel images, music, and synthesized sounds.

It has threatened anyone who writes, draws, arranges, or codes for a living, and has even sparked strikes by Hollywood writers and actors, as well as legal lawsuits by visual artists and best-selling authors.

Some respected scientists in the field of artificial intelligence have warned that the uncontrolled development of this technology is surpassing humans and may threaten human survival; others say their concerns are too exaggerated or alert people to more immediate risks.

By the end of this year, the AI crisis had moved to ChatGPT's own maker, San Francisco startup OpenAI, whose CEO caused “dramatic turmoil.”

At the same time, the AI crisis moved to a Belgian government conference room. After several days of intense talks, political leaders from EU countries finally reached an agreement and formulated the world's first important artificial intelligence legal guarantee agreement.

The new artificial intelligence law will take several years to fully take effect, and other legislatures, including the US Congress, are still a long way from enacting their own laws.

02.

Too much hype?

Undoubtedly, commercial artificial intelligence products launched in 2023 include technical achievements that could not be achieved in the early stages of artificial intelligence research, which dates back to the mid-20th century.

Market research firm Gartner has been tracking the “hype cycle” of emerging technologies since the 1990s. Imagine a wooden roller coaster “ticking” to the highest peak, about to rush down what Gartner describes as the “trough of disillusionment,” and then back to reality.

Dave Micko, an analyst at Gartner, said, “Generative AI is at the peak of growing expectations, and suppliers and producers are touting its capabilities and the help they provide.”

Google this month edited a video demo of its most powerful artificial intelligence model, Gemini, which, despite making it look more impressive and more human-like, has drawn numerous criticisms.

Leading artificial intelligence developers are driving some of the ways to apply the latest technology, most of which correspond to their current product line — be it search engines or workplace productivity software, Micko said. But that doesn't mean the whole world will use it that way.

He said, “Although Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple all want us to adopt their technical mindset and technology delivery methods, I think the adoption actually comes from the bottom up.”

03.

What's different about commercializing artificial intelligence this time around?

It's easy to forget that this isn't the first wave of commercialization of artificial intelligence.

Computer vision technology developed by Li Yanhong and other scientists helps people organize huge photo databases, recognize objects and faces, and help guide autonomous vehicles. Advances in voice recognition technology have made voice assistants such as Siri and Alexa a fixed tool in many people's lives.

Tom Gruber, co-founder of Siri Inc. said, “When we launched Siri in 2011, it was the fastest-growing consumer app at the time, and the only major mainstream application of artificial intelligence people have experienced.”

Gruber believes what is happening now is the “biggest wave ever” in the field of artificial intelligence. It has brought new possibilities as well as new dangers.

“We were surprised that by training machines to play solitaire games on the internet, we unexpectedly encountered this amazing language ability,” Gruber said.

The crisis is likely to come quickly in 2024, as major national elections in the US, India, and elsewhere are likely to be filled with “deep falsification” generated by artificial intelligence.

Gruber believes that in the long run, the rapid improvement of artificial intelligence technology in language, visual perception, and step-by-step planning capabilities can inject new vitality into the vision of digital assistants, but only if they can enter “the internal cycle of our digital lifestyle.”

“They manage your attention, like you should watch this video, you should read this book, you should respond to this person's messages. This is the job of a true personal assistant. We can do that, but personal information and privacy are at great risk.” Gruber display.