Liu Jiaochain｜The starting point of the 80,000 dollar bull market? The second half of the year is the decisive battle: the ultimate battle between the four-year cycle and the power law model
1. BTC returns to $80,000
Once again, the market stood at the 80,000 US dollar mark.
According to Bitstamp data, BTC reached a maximum of over 80,500 US dollars [2]. Some are shouting back the cow, and others are waiting for confirmation. Cointelegraph's analysis indicates that the cost base for short-term holders is $81,486 [1]. Only when the daily revenue is stable above 81,500 US dollars will those who have entered the market in the last five months count as a group release. Only after taking this step can 80,000 US dollars change from resistance to support.
However, the teaching chain feels that although these short-term signals are lively, they are not really something worth paying attention to.
What really makes people think carefully and is the ultimate dark battle that is about to come in the second half of 2026.
2. At least one of the two coordinate systems will die in the second half of 2026
If we break out of short-term fluctuations and lengthen our line of sight, we will find that two completely different sets of coordinate systems are violently colliding.
One set is the four-year cycle theory. It doesn't have the fancy of technical analysis; it's just a time indicator. However, this simple theory withstood questions from institutional bulls in 2021 and ETF bulls in 2025. I shouted twice and got punched in the face twice. The peak of the bull market is at the end of the bull market, and the bottom of the bear market is at the end of the bear market. According to this rhythm, 2026 is a bear market year, and the real bottom is still at the end of the year. Some analysts even think that the bottom price may point to the 40,000 to 50,000 US dollar range.
The other set is the power law model. Since it was invented in 2019, its upper rail and middle rail failed one after another in 2021 and 2025. The price did not reach the upper track, nor did it effectively cross the middle track. However, its low track, as the ultimate absolute support line at the bottom of the bear market, has not been broken through yet. The deepest position in every round of the bear market only hit a low trajectory and never fell below the close.
The teaching chain disassembled this low-track trend in detail in an April 21 article. Based on its upward movement rate, it is estimated that it will rise to about 60,000 US dollars in July 2026, and further rise to 70,000 US dollars by the end of 2026. The February pullback has already been verified at $60,000. If the low power law remains in effect, then the 60,000 US dollar mark in February was the final bottom of the current bear market. The depth of the bear market was locked at -52.3%, far less than the historical level of -75% to -85%.
The two sets of theories give diametrically opposite conclusions. One is 40,000 to 50,000 US dollars, and the other is 60,000 to 70,000 US dollars. One is the precise pendulum of the rhythm of time, and the other is the final position of the technical model.
This isn't a gentle disagreement at all; it's a duel between your death and your life.
3. Why the four-year cycle is awe-inspiring
Figure: Bitcoin Market Structure Changes and Cyclical Challenges
Some might say that the four-year cycle is nothing more than a matter of drawing a sword. The halving effect is diminishing, institutions enter the market, and the macro environment has changed. Why should we stick to the old yellow calendar?
The teaching chain feels that this kind of question is reasonable, but what is really awesome about the four-year cycle is precisely its simplicity.
Complex technical models often fail first. This is illustrated by the failure of almost all so-called escape indicators, including the failure of the power law to move upwards. why? This is because prices in the late bull market are driven by sentiment and liquidity, not determined by valuation models or historical data fitting.
But the four-year cycle is different. It doesn't predict price, only time. Prices can break through any technical channel, but the number of days required for humans to go from greed to fear, and from despair to hope is roughly fixed. This cycle is called Combo in the macroeconomy and halved in four years in the crypto market.
Halving is a supply shock and an anchor in the psychological cycle. It takes time for people to complete a complete emotional cycle, and this emotional cycle is firmly trapped by the anchor effect of halving production — it can be described as Satoshi Nakamoto's greatest conspiracy.
In 2021, many people say that institutional cows will break the cycle. The top of the results is at the end of the year and the bottom is also at the end of the year In 2025, many people say ETF bulls will break the cycle. The top of the results is at the end of the year. Now it's time to test the bottom of the bear market. The four-year cycle says: The bottom of the bear market is at the end of the bear market. We'll know by 2026.
Time is the fairest judge and the most ruthless hunter.
4. Why is it extremely scary to think carefully about the low power law
On the other hand, the horror of power law's low track lies not only in the simplicity and beauty of its formula, but also in its undefeated record.
Can a four-year cycle be falsified? Of course you can. If the price does not bottom out at the end of 2026, or the bottom position is much higher than $70,000, the cycle theory should be re-examined. But until then, it was still accurate in both directions, top and bottom.
The low power law trajectory is individually accurate. It doesn't predict the top; it only predicts the bottom. The high rail and middle rail have failed, but the low track has never failed. At the deepest point of every round of the bear market, the price was steadily caught by the low trajectory and then rebounded.
In the second half of 2026, when the low track rose to 60,000 US dollars, and the low point of the sharp decline in February happened to be 60,000 US dollars, this formed a perfect verification point. If the price falls back to 60,000 US dollars in the second half of the year and holds on, the low power law trajectory will continue to remain undefeated. If the price effectively breaks through 60,000 US dollars and remains unrecoverable for several months, the model will be falsified for the first time.
It's a simple pick of two, there's no middle ground.
Figure: Low power law trajectory and power law breakdown zone
5. Theory or belief
The two sets of theories will finally be connected in the second half of 2026. At least one of the two dies. Regardless of who wins or loses, or even if it is falsified, it will be a landmark in the history of crypto market analysis.
This is a battle of theory; it is also a battle of faith. For those who stick to the four-year cycle, they won't be idle until the end of the year and vow not to stop; while those who firmly believe that the power law is unbreakable will actively lay out in the 60,000 to 70,000 dollar range ahead of time.
The teaching chain feels that for long-term activists, there is actually no need to choose one of the two.
The four-year cycle says that the bottom is at the end of the bear market, but no specific price was given, which may point to the power law breaking through the zone. The low power law says that 60,000 to 70,000 US dollars is an iron base, and it will rise to 70,000 US dollars by the end of 2026. From the perspective of odds and win rates, the 60,000-70,000 US dollar range is already a pretty good range overall.
No matter how the market price fluctuates in the short term, we all know that every correction, every time it approaches the 60,000-70,000 US dollar range, should not be a source of panic, but rather an opportunity worth watching.
For long-term activists, don't worry about whether it's 60,000 or 40,000; don't be greedy and devour snakes and always try to escape the top or fall to the bottom with precision.
Every day of a bear market should be a window of time for accumulation, not a source of fear.
6. Two endings, one preparation
In the second half of 2026, the market may only end in one of two ways. (Teaching link note: There is a very small probability of breaking both at the same time — that is, an accurate sideways trade of 65,000 dollars for two months at the end of 2026. This not only breaks through the low power law trajectory, but also makes the end of the year no longer the bottom of the bear market. (However, such a control panel is extremely difficult, and the probability is relatively small.)
In the end, 60,000 US dollars were effectively held, and the low power law trajectory continued the undefeated record. This means that the historical depth of the four-year cycle has been declared dead, Bitcoin's volatility has further converged, and the era of 80% deep bears is over. The 60,000 US dollar in February was confirmed as the final bottom of the current round bear market, and the year-end rule that appeared at the bottom of the four-year cycle bear market was broken for the first time.
The second outcome was an effective breakdown of 60,000 US dollars, and the low power law failed for the first time. This means that the four-year cycle continues to dominate the market, and the bottom of the bear market may have an opportunity to point to the range of around 40,000 to 50,000 US dollars or even lower, as some analysts believe. Popper said that a theory that cannot be falsified is not a scientific theory. If power law is scientific, then it must be falsifiable.
Whatever the outcome, it's not a disaster for prepared long-term activists in the 60,000-70,000 dollar range. The former means the bottom is over, while the latter means there are better prices awaiting layout ahead.
Perhaps the only bad situation is that they are afraid to move within the range because of fear, and wait until the dust settles on both sides before catching up.
The teaching chain only hopes that when that day arrives, positions will still be there, the mentality will be stable, and the logic will still be clear.
These clear perceptions are the real capital for crossing the cycle.
Twitter:https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN
Compare the TG exchange group:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
Compare TG subscriptions:https://t.me/bitpush
