四年周期 · 229

Well-known trader: The Bitcoin bear market has ended and is currently in the early stages of a bull market

Comparing news, well-known trader Doctor Profit said that Bitcoin's recent rise has broken through several key resistance zones, and believes that the current bear market is over and the market is entering the early stages of a bull market. Recently, BTC broke through 4 to 5 complete bear resistance zones in a single day, including the bear resistance bands it had previously focused on. He believes that this trend has weakened the market's doubts about the effectiveness of this indicator. He also pointed out that currently there are only a few key resistance areas that need to be broken through ahead of Bitcoin. If the breakthrough is completed, it will further confirm the start of the bull market cycle. He said that the market is currently in a transition phase from a bear market to a bull market. There are three price areas to focus on right now: $71,500, $78,000, and $82,000. Among them, $71,500 is currently the most important resistance level. If BTC can effectively stand in this area or form a weekly closing break, the key breakout will be confirmed. The $78,000 area is also in need of a breakout, and once the $82,000 area is breached, further room for a bullish upside will open up. Furthermore, the market recently experienced one of the largest Bitcoin short liquidations in history, and some investors previously missed layout opportunities because they believed in a four-year cycle or anticipated an August pullback.

1d ago

Is “Cow Lai” really here? Bitcoin skyrocketed, and $2,743 billion bears were brutally liquidated

Source: PanNews Author: Nancy Original title: Is “Cow Coming” Really Here? Bitcoin changed overnight, and bears hit the main points of the biggest liquidation day in history: Bitcoin rebounded strongly on August 19, with an intraday increase of more than 7.4%, once approaching 70,000 US dollars, a new high since the beginning of June; Ethereum simultaneously broke through 2,300 US dollars. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network closed out more than 2,986 billion US dollars, of which short liquidations reached 2,743 billion US dollars, setting a new record for short liquidation in a single day. The recovery in the market was driven by multiple factors: the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases to improve liquidity; the SEC proposed new crypto asset issuance rules to exempt some registration requirements; and Trump met with crypto business executives and made supporting remarks, urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act. Furthermore, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded US$480 million in the past two days, causing large-scale short liquidation effects. On-chain data shows that spot demand is about to improve, with a median increase of about 18.1% over the next 60 days. However, Glassnode pointed out that high real interest rates are still a suppressing factor, the market is still bottoming out, and the capitulation is not completely over. VanEck believes that 8 of the 12 capitulation indicators have been triggered, but this is not a sign of bottoming out. The potential cumulative window may be from September to November. Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to rise to 100,000 US dollars by the end of 2026. If it effectively breaks through $65,500, it may confirm the low in the cycle. CEO Strive believes that the long-term downward trend in the US dollar may bring the strongest macro tailwind to Bitcoin. Overall, there are positive signs in the market, but continued strengthening still requires verification of demand, liquidity, and macro environment, and investors should maintain reasonable positions. While the movie “Cow Lai” continues to be popular, the market's expectations for a “return to the bull market” are also constantly being ignited. Coincidentally, the crypto market also suddenly ushered in a long-lost “bull attack”. Bitcoin's strong counterattack overnight led to a collective recovery of the market. For the crypto market, which has been dormant for a long time, this surge not only means a breakthrough in price, but also a return to market volatility. After the market heated up rapidly, market sentiment was instantly ignited, and coin industry players even ridiculed that “native families are finally getting better.” Meanwhile, this sudden strong rebound also simultaneously triggered a single-day liquidation wave of bears on an astonishing scale. Bitcoin fought back strongly. On the evening of August 19, the bears experienced the biggest wave of liquidation in history. On the evening of August 19, Bitcoin broke out of a long-lost positive line and strongly broke through the consolidation range that continued for several months. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin suddenly experienced a strong rebound, with an intraday increase of more than 7.4%, once approaching 70,000 US dollars, a new high since the beginning of June. Ethereum strengthened at the same time. At one point, the price broke through 2,300 US dollars, reaching a new high of nearly three months. Mainstream assets rose collectively, rapidly driving the overall recovery of the crypto market. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalization has risen by around 7.5%, recovering to around $2.46 trillion. However, this sudden surge also turned into a large-scale bear slaughter. According to CoinGlass data, the total amount of online liquidations in the past 24 hours has exceeded 2,986 billion US dollars, and more than 175,000 traders have been forced to close their positions. Among them, the biggest single liquidation occurred in the BTC-USD contract on the Hyperliquid platform, which amounted to about US$48.8 million. Judging from the historical scale, this wave of liquidations has surpassed the single-day liquidation record of about 2.23 billion US dollars during the “tariff shock” in February 2025, ranking the eighth largest liquidation event in crypto history. What is more noteworthy is that this liquidation almost showed a one-sided pattern of bears squeezing. According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours, the amount of short liquidation reached US$2,743 million, far exceeding the liquidation scale of about US$243 million for longs. This figure even surpassed the scale of short liquidations of about 2.46 billion US dollars on the largest settlement date in history on October 10, 2025, setting a new record for the scale of short liquidations in a single day in the crypto market. The crypto market welcomed multiple benefits. Trump's bullish remarks ignited optimism behind the collective reversal of the crypto market's decline, mainly driven by multiple factors such as improved macro liquidity, bearish shortfall, regulatory optimism, and the return of ETF funds. At the macro level, the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases, which became the core trigger for this round of market recovery. The Ministry of Finance announced that it will double the maximum limit of liquidity support repurchases of 10-year to 30-year treasury bonds from at least US$2 billion to US$4 billion. The measures will be implemented on September 9 and will continue until November 4. The market generally interpreted this as strong support for the liquidity of the treasury bond market, which effectively lowered long-term yields. The yield on 30-year treasury bonds declined markedly from a high level of about 5.33% to 5.34%. And the decline in US bond yields...

2d ago22#Blood washes empty heads

CZ: Bitcoin is still following a four-year cycle, and crypto ushered in the most friendly policy environment

Comparing news, at the SALT conference held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, CZ discussed the Bitcoin supercycle claim previously made at the Davos Forum and stated that the claim has not been fulfilled yet. Judging from the data, the market still follows a strict four-year cycle and is currently in a bear market phase; however, as the total market value continues to expand, the price fluctuation range will tend to narrow, similar to the stock price fluctuation pattern of large companies such as Amazon and Facebook. Referring to the US regulatory environment, CZ said that it is currently the most friendly period in the industry environment since he has been in business for 12 years, and believes that the US regulatory framework has an exemplary effect on the world, and that the securities laws and exchange regulatory structures of many countries all refer to the US. At the same time, Hong Kong is speeding up the promotion of relevant legislation in line with US regulatory ideas. In addition, CZ also discussed the allocation of its investment institution YZi Labs, which stated that currently about 70% of the capital is invested in the core crypto and blockchain circuit, about 20% is invested in AI, and the rest is invested in biotechnology and other fields. YZi Labs uses its own capital and is not bound by an external LP payback cycle. Investments value the positive impact of the project and execution of the founding team rather than a simple financial return model. In response to Hyperliquid, CZ said there is a misunderstanding within the industry that it will only maintain the CEX position as a Binance shareholder, but it is precisely because it believes in decentralization. If platforms that do not require KYC such as Hyperliquid can enter the US market in a compliant manner, it will open the doors of the entire industry, so that more Perp DEX and decentralized services can reach US and global users, and American consumers will also get better liquidity and prices as a result. This will benefit not only Hyperliquid itself, but also international centralized trading platforms, including Binance.

2d ago

Well-known trader: Bitcoin's long-term target is still above $150,000, and the traditional four-year cycle may eventually change

Comparing the news, well-known trader Killa wrote that Bitcoin has rebounded from a low level, and trying to wait for a perfect bottom may cause investors to completely miss the subsequent rise. He said that instead of going short in order to wait for a price that may never arrive, he is more inclined to establish exposure ahead of time and accept the drawdown that may occur in the process. Killa said that the Bitcoin cycle is changing, and many indicators already support this judgment, and the traditional four-year cycle may eventually change. As a result, he is willing to keep buying at different prices such as $70,000, $65,000, $60,000, or $55,000 rather than sticking to a single bottom target. In the longer term, Bitcoin's price will rise above $150,000. He said he would rather hold a position first and then adjust according to market changes than to miss the entire upward process due to constant waiting for the target price.

3d ago

Analyst: Bitcoin may bottom out in October and can be invested in the $48,000-$620,000 range

Comparing news, crypto analyst Ali Charts wrote that according to Bitcoin's four-year cycle, it is expected that BTC will hit the bottom of the current round of the market between October 6 and 16. He believes that investors should develop fixed investment strategies in the range of $62,000 to $48,000 to accumulate Bitcoin in batches before the final capitulation phase of decline arrives. It judged that the current bear market was nearing its end, and said that now is the time to begin to turn bullish.

6d ago

When will Bitcoin bottom out? 4chan's anonymous Oracle post reached a high level of consensus with analysts such as Jiang Zhuoer

Comparing news, 10 months have passed since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, and the four-year cycle theory believed by the crypto community recently sparked another buzz: when will Bitcoin bottom out and when can it hit bottom. On this issue, the opinions of many well-known analysts have been compiled as follows: Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt said in late July that the current Bitcoin market cycle is expected to bottom out on October 4, 2026, and believes that the current earnings performance of investing in Bitcoin in the next two or three years may be better than investing in AI stocks. Furthermore, Brandt anticipates that the top of Bitcoin's next cycle will occur in 2029, with a target price range of $250,000 to $300,000. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Libitt Mining Pool (B.TOP), predicted the bottom of the current bear market in conjunction with the previous 3 rounds of Bitcoin halving cycles. The bottom price of BTC in this round is estimated to be $44016, which is expected to occur on October 31. Well-known traders Killa and CryptoD gave relatively broad time frames. Killa believes the bottom may be formed in July-September. However, CryptoD, which once relied on the meme coin TRUMP to profit more than 10 million dollars, believes that now the overall crypto market is gradually approaching the bottom, and Q3 and Q4 are likely to be the last period before the next round of bull markets. It is worth noting that Peter Brandt and Jiang Zhuoer's October bottom-line theory has reached a high degree of consensus with the 4chan forum's anonymous Oracle post, which was widely circulated on the Internet. Historical records show that the Oracle post was published on December 12, 2023, and the post listed the time span of the four Bitcoin price highs and lows since 2015 (ATL 2015 → ATH 2017 = 1064 days; ATH 2017 → ATL 2018 364 days; ATL 2018 → ATH 2021 1064 days; ATH 2021 → ATL 2022 и 364 days), and was compared according to this rule The conclusion was that Bitcoin peaked on October 6, 2025. Based on this logical deduction, the current round of Bitcoin will also bottom out in October of this year. However, the above analysis may be a search for a sword. In this cycle, the entry of institutional capital has redefined the Bitcoin pattern, and it makes sense for the cycle to change.

11d ago

Is Bitcoin still salvageable? Let the data do the talking

Author: Will Clemente (@WClemente) Compiled and collated by: BitPushNews Author Profile: Will Clemente worked as the chief analyst at Blockware Solutions in his early years, focusing on Bitcoin on-chain data (exchange fund flow, holder behavior, etc.). In 2021-2022, he co-founded Reflexivity Research with Anthony Pompliano to provide institutional-level on-chain and macro research, and later became a listed company DeFi Technologies acquisition. He then became a consultant and participated in STIX related work. X has nearly 800,000 fans. The analytical style is data-driven and easy to understand. It is one of the influential voices in the field of Bitcoin cycle judgment. Here is the text: Happy summer! I haven't written a long analytical article on Bitcoin in a while. In this post, I'm going to do a thought review and share my thoughts on this asset class and some of my personal thoughts on how to deal with future trends. Last year, I generally focused my personal market attention on commodities, because it was clear at the time that there was an oversupply problem in the cryptocurrency sector, which made the market seem very heavy. At the same time, with the exception of Hyperliquid, lack of substantial innovation led to a lack of market interest — at least compared to the market activity we saw in other markets — making it difficult for demand to absorb all supply. I thought that late last year, when small-cap stocks soared and gold had just set off a sharp rise, Bitcoin had a window of good performance, but I was very disappointed when Bitcoin basically experienced a failed breakthrough (a few days before October 10). In January of this year, I further reduced my Bitcoin positions that I personally still hold because the market trend at the time was similar to the previous bear market we experienced in 2022. Frankly speaking, this hasn't been a fun year for those focused on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space. Although judging from the percentage decline, Bitcoin's retracement is much milder than in 2022, in many ways, one can argue that this bear market is even tougher than 2022. At least in 2022, you can clearly indicate the reason for the decline (rising interest rates, removal of leverage and fraud, FTX thunderstorm) and determine that “if these things are likely to change, and at the end of 2022, things are asymmetrically biased towards the impossibility of getting worse, then Bitcoin is probably a good long-term buying point here” — yet today, we don't see any similar situation, other than DaTS and quantum computing (which I'll talk about later), and what I think are some positive signs of recovery that I think are finally beginning to appear. Bitcoin ETFs hold 50 billion US dollars in assets and set a record for initial capital inflows, but they were surpassed by storage ETFs earlier this year. Major institutions have begun to introduce loan products. Gold performed extremely well last year, driven by central bank reserve demand. Fueled by the de-dollarization narrative, this should have been a time for Bitcoin to shine. Almost any individual or entity that wants to gain exposure to Bitcoin can do it, which makes it even more disappointing to see a net Bitcoin ETF outflow of $5 billion over the past year, while DRAM attracted $10 billion in capital inflows within a month. Network Health When we talk about the fundamentals of Bitcoin, we're clearly not talking about metrics in the traditional sense; we're focusing on the underlying state of the network itself. I'm not going to go through each data point one by one to list the data, but I think there are two main points that are really important. In an increasingly centralized world, in the context of a country-led economy and a country-influenced market, and the most centralized technological power brought by large technology companies, I do believe that decentralization is of great value. For those who don't know much about the details of Bitcoin, in addition to the miners we all know, there are also nodes. Nodes can be run by anyone and are responsible for enforcing rules and verifying the network, while miners provide security through extensive energy-backed computation. There are nodes all over the world, and there are probably many more that you can't easily track. The following list alone covers nearly 200 countries. Source: https://bitref.com/nodes/虽然查看矿池（它们对个体矿工没有控制权）是可能的，但你很难像追踪节点那样追踪个体矿工. However, we can get through...

11d agoWendy#cycles #Bitcoin #BEARISH #Bull market #Market topics

Historical-level indicators collectively signal that the Bitcoin bear market may come to an end!

Author: Blockworks Research Compiled by: Golem Original title: Five historic indicators are on at the same time. Bitcoin's bear market has bottomed out. Summary: Bitcoin's price is currently down 50% from its all-time high, and the bear market has continued for more than 40 weeks. A series of long-term cycle indicators indicate that the market may be at or close to the low point of price and time period; this month, the Bitcoin Index hit the highest level of oversold in history against gold in February this year. Earlier data close to these extreme levels usually indicates the emergence of long-term cyclical lows, and indicates that Bitcoin will perform well and receive positive returns in the next 1-3 years; the actual price of Bitcoin (that is, the total cost of circulating Bitcoin supply) is currently 53,000 US dollars, which is 18% lower than the spot price. At every bear market low in history, the price of Bitcoin was lower than the actual price, and the price of Bitcoin was lower than the actual price for only 12% of the time in history. Since this point in time, Bitcoin has reaped quite impressive returns over a period of 1-3 years; the historical bear cycle usually bottomed out around the 60th week after the historical high, which means that the low point of the current bear market cycle may occur at the end of November 2026; taken together, the current confluence of factors suggests that the period between now and December 2026 may be a very attractive time to stock up on Bitcoin for a long time. Dwindling returns and the need for conditional investment Bitcoin prices have remained stable since March 2021; since November 2017, Bitcoin has also remained stable against the NASDAQ index, over a period of nearly nine years. Judging from the current time span, Bitcoin's performance against the stock index is quite stable, yet its volatility is significantly higher than that of the stock index. After risk adjustment, Bitcoin underperformed the stock index. This background is critical to how to hold Bitcoin. As Bitcoin's price rises and falls, its marginal gains will diminish. The passive strategy of always going long, which has brought benefits to holders in the past few cycles, is now failing, so if you want to get excess profits, you need to seize the opportunity to increase or decrease your Bitcoin holdings in due course. In order to find these windows of opportunity, the indicators proposed in this article are all condition-based signals. These signals have been “silent” for most of history, and their strongest signals appear at the end, only a few times every ten years. Currently, these signals have appeared at the same time, and they all point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin may be at or near a long-term price low. Indicator 1: NASDAQ/Bitcoin Relative Strength Signal The first signal is based on the ratio of the NASDAQ 100 Index to Bitcoin, which is calculated based on the weekly closing price of the past 875 cycles. We calculated the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) of this ratio and smoothed it using a 14-period simple moving average. A higher RSI indicates that the Nasdaq index is overbought relative to Bitcoin; a lower RSI indicates the opposite. This indicator is not an intraday trading technical indicator. It is a 14-week moving average of a 14-week oscillator. The transition period between overbought and oversold states is a multi-year market cycle rather than days or weeks. The NASDAQ/BTC RSI Nasdaq index is relatively overbought, which is a rare event. The RSI moving average is above 65 only 5.78% of the time in its historical data, and only 0.35% of the time above 70. These thresholds were only breached in four periods: February 2015, February 2019, August 2022, and the period that began in late January 2026 and continues to this day. The current value needs to be analyzed from three aspects: first, the current level of 72.6 is the highest in history, 4.1 points higher than the previous high of 68.5 in September 2022, and all observations above 70 have occurred in the past month; second, the current cycle has lasted 24 weeks, setting the longest record in history, far exceeding 11 weeks in 2015, 4 weeks in 2019, and 10 weeks in 2022; third, it has only occurred four times in the past 16 years. The current situation is One of the rarest phenomena of indicators. Measured by this, this is the worst overbought Nasdaq index against Bitcoin in history. In other words, since the pair and its RSI can be shown in reverse, judging from a longer time frame, this is the Bitcoin/Nasdaq index...

29d agoburnking#invests #Bitcoin #Market topics #currency

Grayscale: If the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates, Bitcoin may have bottomed out

Comparing news, Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl wrote that the market currently has two main opinions on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one is to follow a four-year cycle, and the other is to view Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macroeconomic factors. According to the four-year cycle perspective, the halving event is still the core driver of Bitcoin's price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin usually bottomed out about a year after the top of the cycle and about 2.5 years after halving, with an average cumulative retracement of about 80%. Following this pattern, Bitcoin is still likely to decline further in this round and form a bottom in September or October. Another view is that in the future, the price of Bitcoin, like other major assets, will be more affected by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in the Federal Reserve's policy. The past few rounds of the Bitcoin bear market were usually accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth or a rise in real interest rates. This round of decline also occurred in the context of rising expectations of interest rate hikes and rising real interest rates. Pandl said it is more in agreement with the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, the price of Bitcoin may have bottomed out.

31d ago

Well-known traders: Bitcoin will not fall below $50,000, wait for the October fomo market

Comparing news, Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) posted an article today saying that the public generally expects Bitcoin to bottom out in September-October due to the four-year cycle. This consensus will constitute a reverse signal, so the bottom under the traditional view may not occur, and the probability that Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 is low. Doctor Profit has deployed all of the short profits to buy Bitcoin at around $64,000, and plans to gradually accumulate 5% of the daily capital in the range of $54,000 to $64,000, while allocating the BTC:ETH 4:1 ratio to balance positions. Doctor Profit emphasized that institutional events such as the launch of BlackRock's tokenization platform in October and the potential August Regulatory Clarification Act will bring about 24-hour stock trading and blockchain legalization narratives, which may trigger FOMO ahead of time and push up prices. Doctor Profit is an elite Swiss cryptocurrency trader with nearly 500,000 followers on the X platform, known for psychoanalysis, bitcoin, and stock trading. He successfully shorted and profiteed around $120,000 in Bitcoin in September 2025, and recently closed all Bitcoin and over 100 short positions in altcoins, and began a spot accumulation strategy instead.

33d ago