Agency: The gold bull market is not over yet, and the turning point may not be far away

Comparative news. According to the Jin10 report, the China Finance Research Report said that gold prices have continued to be adjusted since March. International gold prices once fell below 4,000 US dollars/ounce, retreating more than 25% from the high of 5321 US dollars/ounce in early March, mainly affected by two factors:

First, the US-Iran conflict has boosted oil prices and inflation. The market is worried that US inflation is resilient, leading to expectations of monetary tightening. Second, Walsh's debut at the June FOMC meeting was interpreted as a hawk, increasing concerns about monetary tightening: Walsh emphasized inflation discipline, revised inflation expectations on the bitmap, and half of the 18-member voting committee supported at least one rate hike during the year.

The current market narrative believes that the focus of the Federal Reserve's policy is to control inflation. The futures market has already set that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once each in 2026 and 2027 to restore the credibility of the US dollar, and the stronger dollar suppresses gold.

Regarding the above two logics, we think it is inappropriate to extrapolate linearly: US inflation may have peaked and may enter a downward channel in the second half of the year. Walsh's debut does not mean that the Federal Reserve has completely turned to austerity; the current statement may be to reserve room for future policies to return to easing. Therefore, this round of gold pullback is not the end of the bull market, and the turning point may not be far off. We are still optimistic about the future gold market. We recommend maintaining positions, absorbing dips, and waiting for a turnaround.