With 1.2 billion shares banned and peaked, can SpaceX's first quarterly report save the stock price?
By Zhang Yaqi, Wall Street News
Original title: After the IPO, it fell four weeks and 1.2 billion shares lifted the ban. Can SpaceX's first quarterly report save the stock price?
SpaceX will soon release its first quarterly earnings report after listing, and the market will face a critical test.
SpaceX will announce second-quarter results after the close of trading on Wednesday, August 4 (Wednesday) EST. As of the opening of the market this Monday, its stock price has been falling for four consecutive weeks, down about 20% from the $135 IPO price, and a cumulative drop of 46% from the historic high of $201.80 closing on June 16.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield pointed out in the preview report that “earnings expectations for the initial quarter may be extremely biased,” suggesting that the outside world has almost no certainty about the direction of performance.
Meanwhile, pressure to lift the ban hangs over stock prices. Approximately 912 million shares will be approved for circulation on August 6, and an additional 319 million shares will be lifted within about a week thereafter. This means that the potential selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored, and the market's focus will be on the reaction of Thursday and Friday stock prices — a strong earnings report, which may be the only catalyst to break the continuous decline.
The AI business has huge revenue potential, but the uncertainty is the highest
SpaceX's financial report is disclosed in three major business segments: Space (Space), Connectivity (Connectivity), and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Among them, the AI sector is the biggest suspense this season.
The core asset of the AI business is xAI — SpaceX completed a merger with it in February of this year. xAI currently operates two terrestrial data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business achieved revenue of US$818 million, but recorded operating losses of US$2.5 billion and capital expenditure of US$7.7 billion during the same period.
Entering the second quarter, there were important variables on the revenue side. SpaceX has signed an AI data center lease agreement with Anthropic and Google. Among them, the monthly agreement with Anthropic amounts to $1.25 billion, and the gradual increase in volume began between May and June; the Google agreement has yet to be launched. This means that the actual revenue of the AI business is quite flexible this season, and profit margin trends are as difficult to predict as the pace of new capital expenditure.
Investors' most anticipated guidance includes the company's outlook for the AI business in the second half of this year and 2027, and a timeline for advancing the idea of using Starship to launch a low-cost AI computing satellite into orbit.
Starlink: User growth is a core metric
Starlink, the connectivity business, is SpaceX's most robust profit engine. At the end of the first quarter, the number of Starlink subscribers reached 10.3 million, more than double that of 5 million 12 months ago; the quarter achieved revenue of US$11.4 billion and operating profit of US$4.4 billion.
In this quarter's earnings report, user growth data will be the focus of market attention. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose average revenue per user (ARPU) metrics, as well as the backlog of contracts for enterprise-level and government businesses, which will help investors assess Starlink's depth of commercialization and future growth potential.
Space business: Starship's progress is in the spotlight
The space sector carries SpaceX's core technology narrative. In the first quarter, the sector achieved revenue of US$4.1 billion, operating losses of US$657 million, and additional capital expenses of US$1.1 billion for plant and equipment. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed about 36 launches, most of which served its own Starlink constellation deployment. Such launches are not included in space sector revenue.
Starship's progress has also received much attention. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test, and investors will seek an update on the timing of the 14th test, as well as the scale of the company's continued investment in the rocket — Starship is a key vehicle for future commercial payload launches and AI satellite deployments.
Performance expectations and market prospects
Wall Street currently estimates SpaceX's total revenue for the second quarter to be about $6.9 billion, and profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of about $2.1 billion; full-year revenue is expected to be $39 billion, and EBITDA is expected to be $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield is optimistic about this season and expects better-than-expected results and positive guidance.
However, the reference value of these predictions is questionable. Since this is SpaceX's first quarterly report since its launch, analysts have no historical data as a basis for calibration, and there is a possibility that the actual figures may deviate drastically.
Stock price trends are also full of variables. Supply pressure to lift the ban on shares, market concerns about Musk's distraction, and the controversy over the valuation itself — based on the current market value of about $1.4 trillion, which corresponds to approximately 35 times the estimated revenue for 2026 — will all be key factors affecting the market's reaction after the earnings report. For investors, this weekend is likely to be extremely uncertain.
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