Weekly macro outlook: the Federal Reserve's minutes join hands with PMI, can Korean stocks continue the technical bull market, and the market is keeping an eye on the three key variables

Comparing news, risk appetite in global financial markets has rebounded overall in the past week. The US stock S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached high levels. The main trading line was defense and hedging to return to interest rate cut expectations and AI profits. Technology stocks and chip stocks led the way; South Korea's KOSPI index rose 11.5% cumulatively, ending seven consecutive weeks of decline and returning to a technical bull market. The US dollar index remained almost flat throughout the week. Improved inflation data lowered expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and an unexpected negative increase in retail sales accelerated the dollar's decline on Friday.

Next week's focus is on three variables:

The first is whether a real breakthrough can be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are in the process of reaching agreement on shipping routes and are planning to determine shipping maps, but the US has not participated in negotiations and has a tough attitude, and actual navigation volume is still extremely low. If the joint declaration is implemented, the US releases a signal to lift the blockade, and traffic volume continues to improve, the geopolitical premium on oil prices is expected to fall back and risk appetite recovers.

Second, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the July meeting in the early hours of Thursday morning. The market will pay attention to whether more members, in addition to public opponents, are inclined to raise interest rates, and whether the impact of energy and tariffs will spread to service prices.

Third, the initial values of the European and American PMIs, which were intensively released on Friday. If weakened, it will further consolidate the expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in September.

A list of next week's key events (Beijing time):

Tuesday

20:15 Weekly changes in ADP employment numbers in the US for the week of August 1

Wednesday

02:00 The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting

Number of jobless claims from the US at 20:30 to the beginning of the week of August 15, the US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for August

Friday

07:30 Japan Core CPI YoY Rate for July

9:45 US Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August, US Preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for August