Kevin Chen 陈凯丰

Kevin Chen 陈凯丰

Bitpush Column · 36 articles

The latest ranking of undergraduate degree programs at the University of Information Systems in the United States

Earning a computer information systems degree not only helps you better understand our changing world, but also makes you a competitive candidate for the job market. If you think an information systems degree is what you want, use the list below to guide your school choices. We hope it helps! 1. Georgia Tech You can get a bachelor's degree in business administration in information technology management from Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is one of America's top universities for studying engineering and technology. Become part of a large and scattered network of alumni and advance your career by studying here! If you're up for the challenge, check out the Georgia Tech website. Tuition per credit hour: $427 Admissions acceptance rate for applicants: 21% 2. Is Carnegie Mellon looking to figure out how to solve complex problems in business and technology? Carnegie Mellon Research Information System. Carnegie Mellon is proud of its graduating students, who continue to face challenging real-world problems. As part of the course, you'll be expected to apply classroom learning to real-world situations. Tuition per credit hour: $1,924 Acceptance rate: 17.1% 3. The University of Minnesota's Information Systems program is based on the Carlson School of Management and is considered one of the best majors in the country, and we agree! Challenge yourself by taking courses on information security, e-commerce, and social media business. Sounds exciting? You can check the university's website. Tuition per credit hour: $512 Acceptance rate: 52% 4. The University of Arizona's undergraduate program in information systems was first established in 1974, and it continues to shape the minds of ambitious and talented students, and you can be one of them. As part of the course, enjoy hands-on tutoring—every student is paired with a teacher mentor to help them complete the course. Become part of a tradition Arizona is proud of by applying. Tuition per credit hour: $807 Acceptance rate: 84% 5. Indiana University Bloomington Indiana University Kelly School of Business is one of the nation's leading schools. This makes it the perfect place to earn a degree in information systems. This highly structured degree prepares you to solve complex problems in technology and business. Participate in courses on the global business environment, business, government, and society, as well as special “I Core Cases,” which is Kelly College's only unique group learning experience. Tuition per credit hour: $440 Acceptance rate: 77% 6. University of Texas — Austin Campus Studying Information Systems at the University of Texas — Austin is a big step towards becoming a multi-faceted asset for any company. The program is offered through the world-renowned McCombs School of Business. The course will train you to navigate the world of technology and business, overcome future problems, and creatively create solutions to these problems. If you want to be prepared for the rigorous world of business, choose this school. Tuition Fee per Credit Hour: $488 Acceptance Rate: 38% 7. The University of Maryland became an effective planner and thinker by studying information systems at the University of Maryland's Robert Smith School of Business. This program also includes a “plus 1" option. That means you can earn a bachelor's and master's degree in information systems in just five years! Get your career on the right track by becoming a Maryland student. Tuition Fee per Credit Hour: $367 Acceptance Rate: 47.2% 8. The UC Irvine Department of Information Systems at UC Irvine is home to some of the best teachers in this field. In addition to teaching students the best of this subject, UC Irvine faculty and staff take pride in teaching students to excel in any number of careers in the commercial and nonprofit world. Tuition Fee per Credit Hour: $951 Acceptance Rate: 29% 9. Birmingham Young University Birmingham Young University's Marriott School of Business has an impressive record in developing dynamic and imaginative professionals in the field of information systems. Students must first complete the preparatory course and apply for the course separately. The challenge is worth it, though. BYU graduates are one of the best preparations for success in the modern business world. Tuition Fee per Credit Hour: $248 Acceptance Rate: 64% 10. Penn State received a bachelor of science in information systems from Penn State University, one of the best public universities in the US. It's an ideal plan for someone considering creating technical solutions to a multitude of problems across industries. Students can also apply to be part of a comprehensive bachelor-master's program, saving you from separate postgraduate applications...

2008d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Computer Information Systems degreeChen Kaifeng
The latest ranking of undergraduate degree programs at the University of Information Systems in the United States

In-depth interpretation of the US stock game terminal emptying storm

Since entering 2021, the US stock market has been extremely volatile. On the first trading day of the new year, US stocks showed a large decline. US stocks, bonds, and gold all fell in January, which has just ended, which is very rare. Of course, what has received the most attention from global investors, financial institutions, and regulators is the emptying crisis of game stations of US listed companies. Regardless of the final outcome, Game Station's sharp rise and fall will definitely be recorded in financial history. Through this article, the author will give you an objective interpretation for your reference in future investments and research. 1. What kind of company is Game Station? Gamestop is an American retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and gaming products. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Grapevine, Texas (Dallas suburb), and is the world's largest video game retailer. As of February 1, 2020, it has 5,509 retail stores in the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Europe. The company was founded in 1984 in Dallas, Texas under the name Babbage Company, and changed to its current name in 1999. The company's retail stores mainly operate GameStop, EB Gaming, ThinkGeek, and Micromania brands. The company declined in mid to late 2010 due to video game sales shifting to online stores and Gametop's failed investment in smartphone retail. In addition to retail stores, GameStop also owns some gaming information and video game magazines. (Game Station physical store, photo source: Microsoft) The company's core business during its inception was a computer game retail store. In September 1999, Game Station was wholly acquired by Barnes & Noble, a major American bookstore chain, for US$210 million. After acquiring Game Station, B&N Bookstore then acquired some other game retail stores, game information magazines, etc. in the US and merged into Game Station in 2000. GameStop was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange as a subsidiary of B&N in 2002. The company's initial public listing price was $10, and the price reached $18 on the first day of trading. It can be said to be a very successful IPO. In 2004, B&N distributed all 67% of the company's shares to the company's shareholders, and GameStop became a completely independent listed company. Beginning in 2004, as video games became popular across the US, Game Station's corporate performance and stock price increased steadily. At the end of 2007, GameStop's stock price peaked at $62 after rising. It can be said that after 5 years of listing, the stock price has increased 6 times, and shareholders, employees, etc. are all very satisfied. Game stations can be said to have accompanied the growth of a generation of young Americans. Millennial Americans, now in their 30s, have sweet memories of being taken by their families to game stations to buy gifts, game set-top boxes, etc. during the holidays. There is no doubt that they have a very subtle emotional element in this storm of emptying game stations. The decline of GameStop began in 2016. At that time, since online services such as Xbox Live, console networks, Nintendo eShop, and S Steam had gained a foothold, the physical retail market for games had been in a state of decline. In 2017, for the first time in its history, GameStop announced a sharp drop of 16.4% in retail sales during the previous year's Christmas holidays. The company said the reasons for the decline in sales include weakness in the industry, pressure on promotional pricing, and declining in-store traffic. As physical store sales declined, the company took some attempts to require employees to sell game prepaid cards, etc., and the work pressure increased. These measures, particularly the pressure on individual store sales metrics, have led to depressed employee morale. After the decline in performance, Game Station's stock price continued to fall. By the end of 2017, the company's stock price had dropped to around $18 per share. Investors' outlook for the company deteriorated sharply after Microsoft announced the Xbox Game Pass service. Game Station announced the closure of more than 150 stores in response. The bigger problem comes from investment mistakes. In order to achieve transformation, GameStation spent 1.5 billion US dollars to acquire mobile game companies in 2018. As a result, this merger and acquisition only achieved a revenue increase of 700 million US dollars. By the end of 2019, the company's share price had dropped to $3.8. As e-commerce has taken the world by storm, many listed retail companies on Wall Street are facing serious operating difficulties, and many physical retail giants have gone bankrupt and reorganized, including the largest toy retail store in the US. As a result, in 2019, some market analysts thought it might be possible for a game station to exist...

2022d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Game stationUS stocks
In-depth interpretation of the US stock game terminal emptying storm

What is the impact of the new US financial policies and regulatory trends on the US stock market?

“The US is expected to have many new financial policies and introduce a large number of new regulatory regulations this year. What is the impact of these policies on the US stock market? The author hopes to use this article to give you some analysis and predictions.” 1. Regulatory Trends The new President Joe Biden and Trump are headed by Senator Kaufman of Delaware, a Democrat who places great emphasis on regulation. The proposed Treasury Secretary, Ms. Yellen, is also an Obama-era veteran who promoted the last round of regulation of Wall Street. The proposed chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission, Gensler, is also a veteran who emphasizes the supervision of the securities industry. It can be said that the Biden team's tax increases and regulations on US companies should be promoted simultaneously. The expansion of regulation can be predicted from the following aspects: financial regulation, technology regulation, and environmental supervision. From a financial perspective, the regulatory themes of Wall Street during Trump's term were biased towards deregulation, including mergers and acquisitions, proprietary transactions, cryptocurrencies, etc. After the Democratic Party comes to power, it should reverse this trend and strengthen supervision instead. Ms. Yellen has always advocated regulation. On her last day as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, she also signed a document to force Wells Fargo to restructure its board of directors. She also published an open letter two years ago along with other senior finance officials from the opposition Democratic Party calling for strengthened supervision of large financial institutions. Therefore, after the Democratic Party came to power, it is expected that large financial institutions will be required to split their business, systemically important insurance companies will be re-included in supervision, and that the cryptocurrency industry will be required to strengthen compliance. Looking at technology companies, in addition to raising taxes on technology companies, Biden's team will also file antitrust claims. Currently, there are 5 social platforms with more than 1 billion users around the world, 4 of which are owned by Facebook. At least two of these four families should be asked to split up. However, Amazon's monopoly on cloud computing, e-commerce, logistics, etc. will eventually be resolved through a spin-off listing. Whether social media should be regulated according to the media is also an issue that the Biden team needs to address urgently. In addition to pressure from within the US, there is also pressure from the European Union to regulate these technology companies. It can be said that the time has come when they have to be introduced. Regulations on environmental protection were extremely relaxed in the Trump era, and will inevitably be reversed in the Biden era. For example, restrictions on carbon emissions, and the re-tightening of oil and gas extraction in the Arctic region, the Pacific coast, the Dakota region, etc., pollution enforcement against enterprises will all be strengthened. 2. Monetary policy monetary policy is probably the only thing that will not change much in US financial policy at present. First, due to the independence of the Federal Reserve, neither Biden's White House team nor Congress can directly change US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term of office is still two years away. It is difficult for structural changes in monetary policy to occur until his term ends. The other two vice presidents of the Federal Reserve Board, with the exception of one of the three members, are Republicans appointed by Trump; the only Democrat is Director Brainard. She used to be a popular candidate for Biden's Treasury Secretary. It was later said that Biden was worried that after appointing Brainard, the Federal Reserve would not have a single senior Democrat official. Meanwhile, Brainard continues to work for the Federal Reserve and will most likely be appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve in early 2023. Of course, as the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ms. Yellen has worked for the Federal Reserve for more than 30 years, so she should be able to influence monetary policy while managing the Treasury Department. After the COVID-19 pandemic, modern monetary theory (MMT) became popular, and the boundary between fiscal policy and monetary policy was blurred. Therefore, the Federal Reserve continues its zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy, and the continuous release of liquidity should be the center of current policy. However, if the inflation rate rises in the second half of the year, there is also a considerable probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy at the end of the year. 3. The impact on the US stock sector is summarized above. The Biden finance team's fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory ideas are all quite in line with traditional Democratic Party ideas. Corresponsibly, among the 11 major sectors of US stocks, the most important beneficiary industries should be healthcare, consumption, new energy, infrastructure, etc. In terms of enterprise size, small and medium-sized enterprises may receive more subsidies and other support, while large multinational companies will face more regulatory and tax pressure. Finally, I need to add that the actual power that the Biden team currently faces is far lower than the situation when Trump joined the White House in 2017. When Trump entered the White House, the Republican Party had a majority in both houses of the 115th US Congress at the time. In the Senate, the Republican Party voted 54 to 44 against the Democratic Party (2 additional independent senators). In the House of Representatives, the Republicans voted 246 to 187 against the Democrats. So Trump's tax cuts, deregulation...

2037d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰custodialFinancial policy
What is the impact of the new US financial policies and regulatory trends on the US stock market?

What is SPAC and an introduction to the SPAC listing process

The most popular listing financing method in the US stock market in 2020 should be a SPAC listing. SPAC's IPO financing amount accounted for 55% of the total amount of financing for all US IPOs last year. From large buyer agencies Blackstone and Fidelity to large Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs Damo, they are all extremely active in the SPAC market. In the SPAC boom, there are also many excellent Chinese companies listed. For example, the shared office space Youke Factory successfully quickly listed on the NASDAQ exchange through SPAC. Many people have misconceptions about the advantages and disadvantages of SPAC listing. In response to these questions, this article will introduce you to the main steps of SPAC listing, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of SPAC listing compared to traditional IPO listings. 1. What is SPAC? SPAC is an abbreviation for special purpose acquisition company (special purpose acquisition company). As required by SPAC, the company is a company with no commercial operation, and it was formed strictly to raise capital through an initial public offering (IPO) to acquire an existing company. As a result, SPACs, also known as “blank check companies,” have been around for decades. They have grown in popularity in recent years, attracted big name underwriters and investors, and raised a record amount of IPO capital in 2020. In 2020, more than 80 SPAC companies were listed in the US, raising about $82.1 billion in capital. (SPAC's financing scale in the past ten years exceeded 82 billion US dollars in 2020, data source: Dealogic) 2. The principle of SPAC SPAC management acquires another company by setting up a special purpose acquisition company and raising capital through an initial public offering. At the time of the initial public offering (IPO), the SPAC had no existing business operations or even a clear acquisition target. SPAC investors range from large US mutual funds, well-known private equity funds, insurance companies to ordinary retail investors. SPACs take one to two years to complete the acquisition, or else the funds must be returned to investors. SPACs are generally comprised of investors or sponsors with expertise in a specific industry or business sector to seek deals in that area. When creating the SPAC, the founders sometimes had at least one acquisition target in mind, but they didn't set that goal to avoid extensive disclosure during the IPO process. That's why they're called the “Blank Check Company.” IPO investors don't know what company they'll end up investing in. The funds raised by SPC in its initial public offering were placed in an interest-bearing trust account. These funds cannot be disbursed unless the acquisition is completed or the funds are returned to investors if the SPAC is liquidated. SPACs usually take two years to complete transactions or face liquidation. In some cases, a portion of interest earned from a trust can be used as risk capital for SPAC. Following an acquisition, SPAC is usually listed on a major stock exchange. The data shows that more than 200 SPAC companies have been established in the US in the past ten years, and two have not completed mergers and acquisitions and entered the liquidation process. As a result, SPAC completed mergers and acquisitions, accounting for about 99% of cases where the company went public and achieved normal operation. SPAC management generally does not receive wages. In the process of managing SPACs for one to two years, management's remuneration comes from reward sweat equity (Sweat Equity) after successful SPAC mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the interests of management and shareholders are highly consistent, and only through mergers and acquisitions can there be benefits. Since SPAC's sponsors and management generally receive about 20% of the new company's shares after mergers and acquisitions, this incentive mechanism is very similar to 20% performance sharing for hedge funds or PE funds. Many people on Wall Street think SPAC can be understood as a hedge fund 2.0 upgrade. 3. Advantages of SPAC Due to the global zero-interest financial market, bond investors' investment targets are extremely limited. After the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the Federal Reserve quickly cut interest rates to zero. This is one of the core reasons that contributed to the development of SPAC. For SPAC investors, if they are not satisfied with the subject of the merger and acquisition, they can choose to redeem the funds. The proceeds obtained are interest income from the funds in the SPAC trust account to purchase US Treasury bonds. For shareholders of companies that are the target of mergers and acquisitions, SPACs are a very good way to go public. First, compared to a typical private equity transaction, the sale price to SPAC is around 20% of the estimated market value of the listing. By S...

2049d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰SPACChen Kaifeng
What is SPAC and an introduction to the SPAC listing process

Why is the diversification promoted by NASDAQ important to financial advisors and investors?

The Nasdaq Exchange recently made a landmark proposal requiring companies listed on the exchange to appoint at least one woman and one LGBTQ or minority member to reflect the diversity of the board. Listed companies that fail to do this will need to explain their reasons to the exchange or face delisting. This kind of “not complying with or explaining” diversification rules is aggressive for the stock exchange. It could also have a big impact on the more than 3,000 companies that are already listed on exchanges. So what does this mean for financial advisors, investment advisors, and family offices? There are three very important aspects to Nasdaq's diversity rules. First, it sent a message to Wall Street that the social justice movement after the murders of countless people such as George Floyd (George Floyd) and Breonna Taylor (Breonna Taylor) needed to be transformed into a viable direction based on accountability and good governance. Second, it forms a system of best practices that supports a clear direction to promote growth, that is, diversification is beneficial to enterprises. Finally, it provides a critical ecosystem for financial planners, advisors, and family offices to consciously communicate with clients and incorporate value-based components into their investment philosophy. Let's analyze it further. Social impact After the “Black Lives Matter” campaign and large-scale protests, many people think Wall Street's reforms to invest in racial equity have not been enough. ... Therefore, the proposed rules for diversity came after many attempts to resolve this issue. In October 2020, J.P. Morgan announced that it would commit $30 billion to close the racial equity gap. In January 2020, Goldman Sachs said it would not list the company without at least one racially diverse board candidate. The Nasdaq proposal builds on California's quota for women in 2018 and recent quotas for underrepresented groups. If a company fails to meet the requirements of the proposed rules, it will not be delisted, but the company will need to explain why it cannot meet these requirements. Failure to release board data could then result in delisting. As many have recognized, racial diversity not only promotes the interests of companies by promoting better governance, but also by reducing group thinking. Craig Broderick, who served as Goldman Sachs's chief risk officer and now serves on the boards of several entities, stated, “Making significant changes to long-established practices and models is difficult or quick, and the board composition of many companies reflects this. However, it is clear that the series of events and pressures we are facing now require organizations to quickly adjust their way of thinking. The board should actively step in rather than resist these effects.” Norway provides an important case study on how NASDAQ rules can be adopted more widely. In 2003, Norwegian feminists were frustrated by the unequal ratio of men to women on corporate boards of directors and successfully lobbied the government to include gender quotas in legislation. When Norway adopted a corporate board quota system in 2003, many thought it was an extreme example of excessive expansion in Scandinavia. However, within 8 years, France followed suit, and other major countries adopted this provision in one form or another. As of 2020, at least 25% of the supervisory boards of the largest companies in the nine EU countries were women, and France surpassed this result, becoming the only EU country where men and women each account for at least 40% of the board of directors. (Data on corporate board diversity over the past six years, as analyzed by McKinsey & Company) Diversification benefits businesses, yet Nasdaq's efforts are more than a sign of virtue here. Numerous studies, including a Boston Consulting Group (Boston Consulting Group) report, have shown that innovation can increase revenue by 19% for companies with more diverse management teams. This finding is significant for tech companies, startups, and the NASDAQ exchange as a whole, as innovation is the foundation for growth. It shows that diversity isn't just an indicator to strive for; it's actually a critical component of a successful revenue-generating business. The US Cable News Network (CNN) reports that of the five largest NASDAQ companies by market capitalization, there are four “white heterosexual men in the minority on the board of directors.” They are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Facebook. This further reinforces the basic statement that ethnic diversity has nothing to do with optics, but is a growth engine that continues to contribute to the company's profits. (Various banks of US listed companies analyzed by McKinsey & Company...

2057d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Chen Kaifeng
Why is the diversification promoted by NASDAQ important to financial advisors and investors?

Key predictions for the US stock market in 2021 (Part 2)

This article is the next part of the author's main predictions for the global financial market in 2021. Including predictions from Articles 6 to 10:6. Slight depreciation of the US dollar exchange rate Currently, global institutional investors agree on their expectations for the depreciation of the US dollar exchange rate. This situation can be seen from futures data on the US dollar exchange rate, etc. The author believes that once a consensus is reached in the market, it is difficult to actually happen, especially when it comes to the US dollar, which has the status of an international reserve currency. After this year's global recession, all countries are facing a devastated economy in need of recovery. If the US dollar exchange rate depreciates sharply, the economies of the Eurozone, Japan, and emerging countries around the world will all experience a double blow caused by the exchange rate. Currently, there are frequent negotiation mechanisms between central banks. If the dollar depreciates too much and too fast, it is likely that countries will directly or indirectly intervene in the foreign exchange market. In addition to fundamental factors, the US dollar exchange rate also needs to reflect the geopolitical relationships of countries. Next year, the Democratic Party enters the White House, and Biden's policy tone is global cooperation. Under this premise, it is difficult to see the political will to depreciate the dollar drastically. In other words, if the dollar depreciates, all countries may lobby the White House to suggest maintaining a stable framework for the US dollar exchange rate. 7. The world's largest listed technology companies were split. One of the hottest topics during this year's US election was the monopoly position of technology companies. Although the stock prices of the five major US technology companies have recovered in recent months, the market positions of Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon have continued to rise. Looking at the history of the United States, one thing can be found: American society does not like monopoly companies. From the introduction of the Sherman Anti-Monopoly Law until now, the United States has successfully dismantled Rockefeller's Standard Oil Company, disbanded the American Telephone and Telegraph Company, etc. through government lawsuits, congressional legislation, etc. Monopolies also have a significant negative impact on economic innovation and development. During the US election, social networking platforms for many technology companies became the main media tool, triggering strong public disgust. The Biden team's financial plans for the US next year also include plans to prevent technology companies from using loopholes in tax laws to achieve zero tax rates and conduct antitrust investigations. In addition to the US federal government, attorneys general in many US states have begun investigating the monopoly issues of technology companies, and the European Union has also begun to have antitrust concerns about large US technology companies. For the monopoly behavior of very large enterprises, large fines can be used to guide them to voluntarily split up business divisions and assets. National Assembly legislation or administrative lawsuits can also be passed to force the division of business subsidiaries to create competition. Of course, splitting up a business is not a bad thing for investors. Under normal circumstances, the total value of shareholders' equity will rise after the split. It is worth mentioning that antitrust issues are not limited to the US; other countries, including China, may carry out anti-monopoly acts in 2021 to promote fair competition in the market. 8. Major development of the healthcare industry The coronavirus outbreak has revealed a large number of problems in the global healthcare industry over the past few decades. The author has been involved in investing in the US healthcare sector for a long time, and it can be said that I have also seen many problems. This includes excessive medical treatment, including games between medical institutions and health insurance institutions, as well as games between large medical centers and specialist diagnosis and treatment institutions. In fact, starting in 2018, the United States has seen a clear trend of continuous decline in regional comprehensive medical centers, and continuous development and expansion of specialty medical care, surgical centers, etc. The COVID-19 outbreak has actually accelerated the concentration of patients in specialist hospitals. For example, patients requiring surgery do not want to go to a comprehensive medical center; they are likely to be infected with other viruses; they prefer to go to an independent surgical center and be physically isolated from other patients. Even at home, I believe there is a similar trend, that is, patients are gradually dismissing their blind worship of the “top three general hospitals” and are beginning to choose more specialized medical institutions. The development of the epidemic has also enabled more patients to obtain medical services through telemedicine in response to traffic disruptions. Finally, the rapid development of big data over the past few years has also begun to enter the healthcare industry. Many image-based diagnosis and treatment decisions will increasingly use artificial intelligence to improve efficiency and quality. The author currently serves as the management of a NASDAQ-listed healthcare merger and acquisition company, and is deeply involved in mergers and acquisitions in the healthcare industry in the Asia-Pacific region. According to our observations, a large number of healthcare institutions will be merged and acquired next year, and online medical care and artificial intelligence diagnosis and treatment will be upgraded. Meanwhile, the intervention of large technology companies including Google, Amazon, and Apple, and large medical insurance companies such as Antai and UnitedHealth will completely disrupt the traditional medical service model. Even like Walmart, CVS, etc...

2073d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰US stock marketChen Kaifeng
Key predictions for the US stock market in 2021 (Part 2)

Key predictions for the US stock market in 2021 (Part 1)

2020, which is coming to an end, is an extremely special year in human history. The COVID-19 outbreak, which began at the beginning of the year, had a huge impact on the global community. In addition to the painful epidemic infection situation, there have also been traffic disruptions between countries that have continued until now, and normal trade, investment, services, etc. have completely stopped, and even the Tokyo Olympics have been postponed until next year. The last time a global public health crisis occurred was the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1919. However, the last time the Olympics and the like were cancelled, countries blocked borders, etc. were still during World War II. This year is also the first time in 75 years since the end of World War II that there has been a rise in global poverty, a reversal of globalization, a shortage of food, and a rise in the number of hungry people. Faced with the once-in-a-century crisis, governments around the world made full use and carried out a large number of public health, fiscal, and monetary crisis countermeasures. The financial market has also set many historical records this year, including serious negative price transactions for crude oil prices, including three-digit volatility in the stock market, as well as serious losses in many top quantitative funds and fundamental funds. So what do you think of the global financial market next year? The author hopes to put forward some opinions through this article for everyone's reference. 1. The explosive growth of initial public offerings (IPOs) drove US stocks to rise and then fall. The author believes that the biggest financial market event in 2021 will be the initial public listing of a large number of companies, that is, to achieve an IPO. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the Federal Reserve's large-scale quantitative easing policy, resulting in excellent market liquidity. Since the end of the last financial crisis, a large number of innovative enterprises that began in 2009 have reached maturity. Whether in the sharing economy, cloud computing, fintech, biopharmaceuticals, or healthcare industries, hundreds of unicorn companies are relatively mature and can become publicly listed companies in the secondary market. In fact, starting this fall, the number of US companies listed has begun to increase on a large scale. The recent homestay sharing company Airbnb (Airbnb) rose 112% on the day it went public, and the successful case of a market capitalization of 83 billion US dollars is a great encouragement for other unicorn companies that are still hesitating. In the more than a month since Palantir, a loss-making big data company, went public, its stock price has doubled and its market capitalization has exceeded 51 billion US dollars, which has also had a very positive impact on the listing of other unicorn companies that have not yet achieved profit. Of course, there are three more special reasons why a large number of US stocks will be listed next year. First, after the Republican Party's tax cuts for the past four years, it is likely that the tax increase will begin after the Democratic Party enters the White House. Including capital gains tax, personal income tax is likely to rise. From the founder of the enterprise to employee shareholders, there is an incentive to increase the tax rate as soon as possible before it rises to obtain good after-tax returns. It may take about a year to pass the new tax law, so the management of unicorn companies will race against time next year to achieve listing as soon as possible. The second reason is government support. The number of tradable shares of US listed companies has declined by 2-5% every year over the past ten years due to continuous large-scale repurchases by various listed companies and continuous mergers and acquisitions carried out by listed companies in various industries. US stocks are in a state of serious imbalance between supply and demand, and the total number of listed companies has dropped by more than 2,000 in the past 20 years. What is more obvious is that Microsoft, Google, Apple, Facebook, etc. are buying back hundreds of billions of dollars of shares and mergers and acquisitions of dozens of companies every year. Over the past few years, the US Securities Regulatory Commission has continued to encourage companies to go public, reduce listing costs, reduce disclosure requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises to go public, etc. These policies have all begun to show results. This year marks the first net increase in the number of tradable US stocks in more than ten years. According to our communication with several major US exchanges, a large number of companies are planning to go public next year. The third reason is that a large number of unicorn companies' options will expire soon. Generally, after the establishment of a company, options are valid for 5-10 years. The listing of companies, including Airbnb, is also driven by employee shareholders. Because if the company is not listed, the value of the option is likely to be zeroed out. After a large number of companies go public in the first half of next year, it is likely to drive US stocks to continue to rise sharply. However, along with the overvalued listing of these unicorn companies and the need for large numbers of shareholders to cash out after the shares are unlocked, there is a high possibility that US stocks will weaken in the second half of next year. If fiscal policies are combined with taxes, the probability that US stocks will plummet in the second half of 2021 and enter a bear market is also relatively high. 2. After the outbreak of COVID-19, countries around the world introduced emergency relief measures after the global wave of bankruptcies and defaults led to terrible losses for bond investors. Countries including the United States, Canada and other countries directly send checks and issue money, including zero interest rates from central banks in various countries...

2074d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Chen Kaifeng
Key predictions for the US stock market in 2021 (Part 1)

COVID-19, Race Issues, and the Obesity Crisis: Lessons from American Businesses

“Lessons from American Businesses Responding to the Coronavirus.” People passing by gyms in New York recently are likely to find signs that say they are out of business. Famous American gyms — New York Sports Club, 24-hour fitness, and International Town Sports, the parent company of Golden Gym — have all filed for bankruptcy. Currently, the number of new COVID-19 cases per day has surged for the third time in the US, along with the temporary closure and permanent closure of gyms, which has undoubtedly led to a decrease in the amount of exercise. Countless people who were passionate about sports before the pandemic were unlucky enough to be disrupted by the pandemic. However, the impact is particularly significant for people of color, particularly black and Hispanic people, who are often important frontline workers. Companies large and small are actively exploring and trying to provide people with ways to live a healthy life during the pandemic. Peloton, a global fitness leader, is redesigning the way it interacts with customers, a company whose stock has risen 240% due to the pandemic. They just announced a partnership with renowned singer Beyoncé (Beyoncé) to provide free two-year e-memberships to students at 10 historically black universities, while saying they are committed to establishing long-term recruitment partnerships with these schools to bring in new talent. The Fiture fitness mirror, released in 2018, claims to be the future of home fitness, using a digital mirror to create fitness classes — just like a private gym class, but quieter, more private, and easy to stop at any time. Fiture and Peloton users use it in a similar way, except that they don't ride a bike. It's important to note that not everyone can afford fitness goggles and exercise bikes that cost 7,8,000 or tens of thousands of yuan per unit, let alone pay a monthly fee of 1,200 yuan to 120,000 yuan. Currently, the market capitalization of Fiture and Peloton is $300 million and $30 billion, respectively. Companies and employers have long recognized the importance of providing health plans for employees to improve a healthy living environment while reducing insurance costs. Fitness experts often post free fitness instructional videos on platforms such as YouTube and Instagram. Companies like 2 Nation and Beach Body On Demand help people improve their health by providing customers with personalized workout and nutrition plans. As effective technological tools, wearables such as Fitbit and Apple Watch can provide valuable personal data and track activity metrics. Data such as daily steps and calorie burn index can help people visualize the amount of exercise they exercise and help them structure their own exercise plans. More importantly, exercise often enhances self-confidence and a sense of accomplishment, both of which are particularly important during the stressful period of COVID-19. Additionally, research shows that exercise can also have a positive impact on mental health issues such as depression. We recognize that obesity is one of the major challenges facing the US during the COVID-19 pandemic and has had a particularly significant impact on people of color. According to a 2018 national survey, black Americans have the lowest level of physical activity and are 20% less likely to participate in physical activity than whites. The Office of Minority Population Health of the US Department of Health and Human Services found that out of 5 black American women, 4 were overweight or obese, which is the group with the highest obesity rate in the US. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the environment in which many families can move. While in quarantine lockdown and working remotely from home, many people are eating very poorly. They often choose unhealthy foods, especially fast food and junk food, due to cost or convenience. Not to mention, despite getting busy at home, the data shows that people consume more alcohol than normal. According to Nielsen's data, from the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020 to August 1, alcohol sales increased 23.6% compared to 2019. People also gain weight, and what they gain is fat rather than muscle. This puts people at greater risk to their health, especially those with pre-existing illnesses. Many people of color from disadvantaged communities were already very...

2088d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰COVID-19Race issues
COVID-19, Race Issues, and the Obesity Crisis: Lessons from American Businesses

What are the listed companies of American InsurTech (InsurTech) innovative companies?

“This article will share with you the latest four listed companies in the US insurtech sector.” The fintech sector has developed extremely rapidly in recent years. Many excellent innovative companies have emerged in the fields of payments, loans, stock trading, insurance, etc., and many of them have become listed companies. Compared to other areas of fintech innovation, the level of attention received by insurtech companies has risen sharply this year. The reason may be that innovation in other fields has gradually matured, and insurance technology is still developing in the same way as payments or online loans about three years ago. Many innovative companies disrupting traditional insurance businesses are still in their infancy or have just gone public. I teach FinTech (FinTech) courses part-time at NYU, and I do many case studies with students every year. The author believes that insurance technology still has a chance of huge development in the next step. This article introduces the four newest insurtech companies listed in the US this year for your reference. Overall, investors are very enthusiastic about the insurtech sector, and the stock prices of these companies have been very strong since they went public this year. 1. Home insurance company Lemon Juice Among the listed companies with US IPOs this year, the insurance technology company that received the most attention is probably Lemon Juice Insurance Company. The company is headquartered in New York City and was founded in 2015. In May, when the COVID-19 pandemic was worst this year, the company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Currently, the market capitalization is over 3.3 billion US dollars. I first learned about Lemon Juice Insurance because of NYU students. Last year in our fintech course, some students suggested that when they rent a house, they would buy home insurance with Lemon Juice for $5 a month. After some comparisons, we found that this company's premiums are far lower than average property insurance companies. Of course, this company's insurance business also has two major differences from other traditional insurance companies. First, Lemon Juice Insurance does not have an “account manager” to handle policy purchases and claims services. All of the company's insurance business is handled through an artificial intelligence robot on a mobile app or website. It can be said that when Lemon Juice purchased insurance, there were no traditional documents, phone calls, and no agents. When consumers buy an insurance policy, Maya, an AI robot in the app, directly searches the real estate information database and completes the pricing and payment of the policy in about 90 seconds. At the same time, when a claim occurs, the app will also instantly compare the database and provide an immediate payment. Since Lemon Juice Insurance Company has no manual services, the company's operating costs have been drastically reduced, including human resources, including office expenses; second, Lemon Juice Insurance Company has an annual charitable reward. In other words, at the end of each year, the policyholder can donate to some charitable organization chosen by the policyholder according to the payment status of the policy, if there is a balance. Lemon Juice's earliest insurance product was home insurance. It can be said that their business model completely disrupted the traditional American home and property insurance policyholder-insurance business model. As the company continued to grow after going public, Lemon Juice has begun to enter the life insurance and pet insurance fields. The company's business model is to build trust among home insurance policyholder customers and then explore the life insurance and pet insurance needs of these customers. The company's life insurance is also carried out through the AI robot Maya, and there is no need for human customer service at all. It can be said that if Lemon Juice becomes zero-insurance brokerage in the future, it will completely disrupt the current life insurance business model. The company is also currently expanding its business area, starting in New York, expanding to other states in the US, and beginning experiments in countries such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands. 2. The insurance big data exchange Max Media Alpha (MediaAlpha), trading code Max, is an online advertising platform for the insurance industry that was launched in October this year. The platform connects insurance company prospects and publishers to help buy and sell vertical search media, including website clicks, phone calls, etc. It provides these companies with advertising management, advertiser data analysis, and insurance policy management reporting and analysis, and provides insurance policy services. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California, and currently has a market capitalization of 2.4 billion US dollars. The main founding shareholder of Max is Hakusan Insurance. After listing, Hakusan Insurance still owns 35% of the shares. The company's stock price performed well after listing, and the stock price has nearly doubled in about a month. Its core competency is the use of artificial intelligence and big data to help insurers find customers online. One of the company's digital advertising platforms actually...

2097d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰InsurTechChen Kaifeng
What are the listed companies of American InsurTech (InsurTech) innovative companies?

The Federal Reserve's report on financial regulation in Congress

Randall Quarles, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of financial institution supervision and administration, recently went to Congress to present an analysis report on the financial supervision situation on behalf of the Federal Reserve in the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. This article describes his analysis. The past two months have been an unusually difficult period for the economy. Congress has shown extraordinary will to act in a concerted and speedy manner to address this difficulty and its wide-ranging consequences. I thank you for your commitment to continue our work together and for the opportunity to attend. The report that accompanies my testimony reviews the regulatory measures taken by the Federal Reserve to address the economic and financial challenges brought about by the current economic contraction. Instead, I'll briefly outline ways the Federal Reserve supports the country's economy, maintains credit supply, and reduces the impact of various controls on public health issues on the economy. This approach applies not only to our efforts so far, but also to the efforts we — and the financial sector — will be making over the next few months to support households and businesses. It is worth acknowledging at all times the profound impact of the crisis on the country's financial system and economy. The steps taken to contain the pandemic triggered a profound and sudden global financial shock. Uncertainty continues to creep up in the financial system. Savers and investors, consumers, and companies all participated in a safe escape in search of cash stability to overcome market fluctuations. No port is immune to the ensuing storm, from commercial paper to US Treasury bonds, to access asset classes. The stress it causes is pervasive as families and businesses struggle to pay their bills, pay their expenses, and maintain their everyday lives. More than a decade ago, US banking organizations faced different crises, and their structural weaknesses fueled and intensified ongoing pressure. 12 years of work by Congress, financial institutions, and regulators to ensure that this dynamic does not happen again. Reforms, as well as other measures taken by the industry, have increased the quantity and quality of bank capital, enabling banks to withstand severe economic downturns and continue to lend. They establish higher levels of liquidity, so banks are able to meet the needs of customers and counterparties. They need improved risk management so banks can avoid unexpected losses lurking in their books. They have increased operational resilience, so banks can open doors and turn on lights after shocks. As a result, banks entered this crisis in a strong position. Over the past two months, the Federal Reserve has taken more than 30 regulatory actions to ensure that financial institutions can use this advantage to support consumers, households, and businesses. We recommend that institutions cooperate constructively with clients to provide them with responsible loan modifications and microfinance. This is a safe and sound banking practice, which is more suitable for this extraordinary period. We've made practical adjustments to certain documentation and compliance requirements to ensure the continued flow of credit while maintaining important consumer protections. We have delayed implementation of the new regulatory measures, temporarily shifting our regulatory activities from on-site inspections to off-site monitoring to reduce the operational burden and allow the company to focus on customer needs. We have made targeted (and where appropriate, temporary) changes to capital requirements so that companies can more effectively use their balance sheets to support customers and the operation of financial markets. We support banks' ability to meet customer requirements by reducing reserve requirements to zero, and take steps to increase the availability of discount windows to meet liquidity needs. Thanks to these measures and the solid foundation upon which they were established, banking organizations are well placed to be a source of strength rather than pressure during the current crisis. They are able to lend to reputable companies that suddenly have no access to capital markets or are simply trying to keep more cash. They have been able to absorb new deposits and prepare families and businesses to move on the difficult path. They have been able to handle a large amount of reaction from investors to high volatility. As channels of official sector support, they helped stabilize the financial system and restore market functions. Pressure on financial markets has eased due to the actions of Congress, executive agencies, central banks, and other private and public institutions around the world. Serious economic damage to measures to contain the pandemic remains, and households and businesses are still being profoundly affected. Financial institutions now have an important role to play in addressing this chaos as a bridge between the beginning of this crisis and the completion of our economic recovery. The current crisis is very different from the one we faced ten years ago. The most fundamental, however, is the origin of the stress. 2008 was the peak of financial panic — nurtured in the financial sector, triggered by financial market turmoil, combined with the weakness of financial institutions, and development into the real economy through financial channels. The uncertainty that causes fear was born in the financial system, and policies aimed at the financial system can directly solve this problem. Not sure today...

2102d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Federal ReserveFinancial regulation
The Federal Reserve's report on financial regulation in Congress

How to choose the next trillion-level investment opportunity in space innovation companies?

Currently, the world's largest listed companies with a market capitalization of around 7 trillion US dollars are all companies related to technology, especially the Internet. So what is the next trillion-dollar investment trend? The author believes that it is only possible in the following two industries: healthcare and space. After the COVID-19 outbreak this year, the importance of the healthcare industry has been recognized by investors in the Chinese and US stock markets, and there are broad prospects for the next development. The space industry, another trillion-dollar investment outlet, also surfaced this year. Of course, many development opportunities within it are still gradually being revealed. The author hopes to give you some ideas through this article. The space industry includes four segments: manned space travel, satellite launches, satellite communications, and data analysis. Currently, there are some innovative companies in these sectors that can pay attention to. 1. Personal space travel For modern human society, the ultimate travel adventure should be space travel. However, one space travel investment that investors in the US stock market can participate in is the listed company Virgin Galactic (Virgin Galactic) space travel company. Virgin Galactic is a space exploration company that went public in 2019 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The company's SPAC sponsor is a social capital (Social Capital) company founded by Parihaputaya, a former Facebook (Facebook) executive. Virgin Galactic focuses on space tourism (sending passengers into space) and hypersonic point-to-point travel (developing Mach 3 aircraft). Currently, the company is the only company engaged in suborbital space tourism and high-speed flights. Due to revolutionary growth opportunities for space travel, it can be said that there is huge room for growth. The founder of Virgin Galactic is Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Atlantic and Music Group. The company has a strong management team, which includes Chief Space Officer George Whitesides, who has worked for NASA for over 20 years, and is also an astronaut himself. The company's CEO is Michael Colglazier, who has worked at Disney for over 30 years, managing Disney's global amusement parks. It can be said that the company combines Silicon Valley innovation, NASA technology, Disney entertainment, and Wall Street capital. Virgin Galactic's competitive advantage lies in the company's ability to integrate vertically. The company completed everything on its own, from the design and manufacture of spacecraft to the New Mexico spaceport, to commercial operations. Of course, the company also has huge risks. For example, if an accident occurs during a space trip, it will have a big impact on the company's operations. Of course, for many space enthusiasts, experiencing a “planetary perspective” should be a lifelong dream! (Viking Bank Space Travel aircraft, photo credit: InceptiveMind) Similar to Virgin Galactic, there are also two space companies invested and built by billionaires: Blue Origin (Blue Origin) and Space Exploration (SpaceX). Of course, neither of these companies are listed companies yet, and secondary market stock investors are still unable to participate. Blue Origins is funded entirely by Bezos, the founder of Amazon. The company has developed a recyclable rocket for space tourists. The founder of space exploration company SpaceX is PayPal, Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla Motors. The company's Falcon rocket has been successfully launched 100 times and successfully recycled many times. SpaceX is currently planning to use its huge starship rocket as a means of transportation from Earth to Mars, a point-to-point space trip. Virgin Galactic has also received an investment from Boeing in a joint venture to study whether it can mature its space tourism technology and build rockets capable of point-to-point high-speed travel. SpaceX has become America's most active rocket launch vehicle, greatly reducing the cost of launching satellites, while also proving that it can reuse the most valuable part of the rocket by landing boosters. SpaceX has also been researching and producing the Dragon spacecraft capsule, and has successfully begun launching astronauts to the International Space Station for use by NASA. Although “Blue Origin” has yet to begin manned space flight, the company has applied what it has learned from space tourism programs to various ambitious space flight projects: developing powerful yet reusable rocket engines, building large new rockets, and using lunar lander to fly cargo and people to the moon for use by NASA. Lockheed Martin has also joined Blue Origin's lunar landing program and has been hunting for NASA's deep space missions...

2115d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Space innovation enterpriseinvests
How to choose the next trillion-level investment opportunity in space innovation companies?

US Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida shared online at the 2020 Annual Member Meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C. I'm excited to meet you today at the IFC 2020 Annual Member Conference. I'm sorry we didn't attend this meeting in person, and I hope the next time Tim Adams invites me back, we'll meet up in Washington. As always, I look forward to the conversation with Tim, but first, allow me to comment on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework. Current Economic Situation and Outlook In the first half of this year, the COVID-19 (COVID-19) pandemic and mitigation measures were taken to contain the pandemic, the worst blow to the US economy since the Great Depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) declined at a rate of nearly 32% per year in the second quarter, and more than 22 million jobs were lost in March and April. This economic recession is the deepest in post-war history, but it may also be the shortest temporary recession in US history and has entered the record book. Macro data traffic received since May has been surprisingly strong, and many forecasters estimate that GDP growth in the third quarter could rebound at a rate of 25% to 30% per year. This progress is particularly noteworthy as it mitigates the surge in new COVID-19 cases reported in several US states this summer and the many high-frequency activity metrics we track and track traffic activity while slowing down. The impact of the virus on economic activity. Although spending on many services continues to lag, the rebound in GDP data is broad based on indicators such as commodity consumption, housing, and investment. These components of aggregate demand benefit from strong fiscal support (including “wage protection programs” and expanded unemployment benefits) as well as low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain credit flows to households and businesses. In the labor market, about half of the 22 million jobs lost in the spring have been restored, and the unemployment rate has fallen by nearly 7 percentage points since April to 7.9% in September. I remind you that in the spring, many people questioned the role of good interest rate cuts, forward guidance, asset purchases, and loan programs in an economy where people are afraid to risk buying cars or building homes, and companies don't invest to increase their capital stock. Well, the data shows that with low interest rates, available credit, and income supported by fiscal transfers, the answer is at least so far — it really is that they build houses, buy cars, and order equipment and software. In other words, the COVID-19 recession has plunged the economy into a very deep hole, and it will take some time for the level of GDP to fully return to its peak before 2019. It may take even longer for the unemployment rate to return to a level consistent with our maximum employment requirements. It is worth emphasizing, however, that compared to the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the baseline forecast outlined by the Commission in its latest Economic Projections Summary anticipates that employment and inflation rates will remain at levels consistent with mandates. 2 In particular, median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants predict that by the end of 2023 (just over three years from now), the unemployment rate will drop to 4% and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation will return to 2%. After the global financial crisis, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate levels. My benchmark outlook is close to these predictions, but I must also acknowledge that the economic outlook is extremely uncertain. Furthermore, the final direction the economy will follow will depend on the direction of the virus, and social isolation regulations and mitigation measures are put in place to accommodate it. The FOMC September Decision and the New Monetary Policy Framework At our September FOMC meeting, the Commission made significant changes to our policy statement, thereby upgrading our forward-looking guidance on the future path of the federal funds rate and providing unprecedented information for our policy response function. We said that as the inflation rate continues to fall below 2%, our policy will aim to achieve inflationary results, keeping inflation expectations well anchored to our long-term target of 2%. We said that we want to maintain a loose monetary policy stance until we achieve these results and our maximum employment requirements, and we want to maintain the current target range of 0% to 1/4 per cent to assess the maximum employment rate until labour market conditions reach a level consistent with the Commission, until the inflation rate rises to 2%, and until the inflation trajectory moderately exceeds 2% for a period of time. We also said that in the next few months, the Federal Reserve will...

2132d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰monetary policyChen Kaifeng
US Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

The Fuzzy Future of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Shadow Money Open Market Committee Discussion and Analysis

In the golden autumn of October, the fall meeting of the Federal Reserve's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee was held. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this conference was held online. The author shares one of the conference topics that Mitch Levy and Charles Prosser co-authored and discussed: the fuzzy future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Dr. Prowse is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He is currently a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. The Federal Reserve's first “Long-term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy Statement” issued in January 2012 improved transparency and accountability by clarifying the interpretation of legislative mandates established by Congress. The Federal Reserve officially established its longer-term inflation target of 2%, that is, the target of symmetry and maximum employment, although the Federal Reserve emphasized that it is inappropriate to set quantitative employment targets because maximum employment is not directly observed and is affected by many non-monetary factors. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 50 years, and the average inflation rate was just below 2%, while inflation expectations were still quite close to 2%. The Federal Reserve is concerned that continued inflation below 2% may cause a sharp drop in inflation expectations, and faces a lower limit of zero interest rates, reducing its flexibility to raise expectations and stimulate the economy, causing the Federal Reserve to formulate a revised strategy. The Federal Reserve's new strategic framework introduces a flexible average inflation target (FAIT) process. After an inflation period of less than 2%, the employment task has been expanded to “maximum inclusive employment” by incorporating “additional strategies” and “composition strategies”. The Federal Reserve gave an asymmetric explanation for both tasks: after inflation exceeded 2%, the Fed did not consider an additional strategy of inflation below 2%; it emphasized that it would evaluate the “gap” of maximum inclusive employment rather than the “bias.” Their keynote address described five concerns about the Federal Reserve's new strategic framework. First, the new policy adds too much complexity. Second, its lack of clarity and inadequate definition of its goals will lead to a shift from a more predictable and systematic approach to a highly discretionary policy environment. This is particularly true of its inflation-structuring strategy, which lacks any numerical guidelines. Financial markets and the public can only speculate on the Federal Reserve's medium-term inflation target. Third, maximizing inclusive employment is a commendable and desirable feature of an effective labor market, but it is determined by a range of factors that go beyond the scope of monetary policy, and using it as an authorization may mislead Congress and the public, allow the Federal Reserve to achieve its goals, and expose the Federal Reserve to the risk of politicization and possibly independence. Fourth, the Federal Reserve's new strategy relies heavily on the Fed's trustworthiness to manage inflation expectations, but it only assumes that the Fed can manage inflation expectations in a credible manner. This is ironic because the Federal Reserve never explained why its zero interest rate and large-scale quantitative easing policy after the financial crisis failed to generate 2% inflation, and its revised strategy seems to be questioning its own credibility. Fifth, although the Federal Reserve wisely abandoned the Phillips curve, which is analytically flawed, and there have been no reliable inflation forecasters since the 1960s, the Fed has not provided any new framework for forecasting inflation. As a result, the Federal Reserve's new framework broadens the explanation of inflation and employment tasks, but does not develop a credible strategy for how monetary policy instruments can achieve these goals. Source: Kevin Chen Kaifeng Chen...

2137d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Federal Reservemonetary policy
The Fuzzy Future of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Shadow Money Open Market Committee Discussion and Analysis

Other than Tesla, what other electric car company stocks can I watch?

The US stock Tesla Motors should be an absolute superstar this year. Although Tesla's stock price has declined recently, there is no doubt about the huge increase in Tesla stock. Judging from the past year, the company's stock price has increased about 10 times. It is a standard 10X stock described by famous American investment master Peter Lynch. Moreover, the company also complies with the stock selection criteria mentioned by Lynch in his “Defeating Wall Street”: well-known, invest in companies you are familiar with. This is also what I have observed myself. Whether on the streets of New York or Los Angeles, or in the domestic first-tier cities north, there are already more and more Tesla cars. So, in addition to Tesla, what other electric vehicle companies can pay attention to in this sector? This article would like to share and summarize other electric vehicle sector companies in the US stock market, including electric vehicles in China Securities, for everyone to discuss. 1. When Tesla talks about electric cars, let's first take a look at the situation of Tesla cars. Tesla (Tesla, trading code is TSLA) is the godfather of the electric vehicle industry and is likely to become the hegemon of the global automotive industry in the future. Therefore, this company should be one of the best stocks to buy electric cars. Data as of 2019 shows that Tesla controls about 16% of the global passenger car market. Thanks to new vehicles and geographical expansion, this figure is up from 8% in 2017. These two drivers will remain the same for years to come. Tesla will launch the Model Y this year. Then there are electric trucks. At the same time, the company will continue to expand into Europe, lead the market position in China, and eventually enter Latin America. Against the backdrop of all this growth, Tesla will continue to produce the best cars in the industry, as Tesla has a huge lead in battery technology and autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Tesla's brand assets are second to none. Strong brand assets won't be diluted in the short term. Over the next few years, Tesla will continue to be the unrivaled leader in the consumer electric vehicle market. Of course, for Tesla stock investors, the biggest problem is valuation. The current market value of the company has exceeded 390 billion US dollars. The corresponding current P/E is about 930 times, and the corresponding expected profit P/E is about 116 times. The ratio of the company's market capitalization to sales revenue is slightly more than 14 times. Judging from various indicators, the company's valuation is indeed extremely high, so once market sentiment fluctuates, such as recent disappointment with Battery Day (Battery Day), the stock price will plummet. 2. Wall Street controversy Electric Truck Company Nikola This year Nikola Motors (NKLA) is Wall Street's newly listed electric truck company that has been questioned. The company debuted in early June through a reverse merger. Within a few days, NKLA's stock price soared from $30 to $90. This company is on par with Tesla in many ways. The company name is the name adopted by the great inventor Nikola Tesla. In short, it is leading the way in creating a new type of futuristic, zero-emission, and cost-effective truck. The company intends to first use electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the commercial trucking market, and then electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the consumer car market. If the company successfully seizes the opportunity to completely disrupt the trucking industry, and the company should be able to receive significant support, technical advantages, strategic partnerships, and a leading position in the hydrogen energy market, then the company's stock price is likely to soar. The company's partner agency and majority shareholder is General Motors (GM), and the management also includes some former executives from GM. Of course, questions about Nikola cars have always been heard. The founder of the company recently left his job abruptly. The company's stock price has also fallen sharply, and its market value has fallen by more than 50%. Next, the innovation and development of electric trucks and hydrogen energy trucks, as well as GM's participation and positioning in Nicola, will have an extremely important impact on the company's development. 3. Electric tricycle company Achimoto US stock market This year's electric vehicle market has a very special small company that produces electric tricycles: Arcimoto (Arcimoto, trading code: FUV). Archimoto manufactures three-wheeled electric vehicles. The company believes the future of cars could have three wheels. Its bet is that three-wheeled electric vehicles have enough special use cases around the world, and demand for these smaller, more flexible, and cheaper vehicles will be very strong. (Electric tricycle company: Archimoto products, photo source: insideevs.com) Specifically, Archimoto's current product for consumers is called a multi-purpose vehicle (FUV), which looks a lot like the next one...

2138d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Teslaelectric car
Other than Tesla, what other electric car company stocks can I watch?

How to understand the US economic recovery based on recent labor market data?

The US labor market has performed better than expected in recent weeks, but there is still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers. As of September 5, the number of weekly jobless claims reached 884,000, the second week in a row below the one million threshold. Meanwhile, the job market added 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2% in July. However, more than 29 million workers still receive some form of unemployment benefit, and this number has remained between 2700-32 million since the beginning of May. From a broader economic perspective, Moody's Analytics and the CNN Business Return to Normal Index (an economy that measures pre-pandemic levels) show that economic activity bottomed out of 59.2% in mid-April and is currently 78.8%, or 21% lower than before the pandemic. Although it looks like the worst economic downturn is over, significant downside risks will persist until the virus is brought under control. Have inflation expectations changed in light of the reopening of the US economy in recent months? Although the initial rebound of the US economic restart in August is weakening, consumer price inflation in the US continued to move in a healthy direction in August. After three consecutive months of decline from March to May, core CPI maintained month-on-month growth for the third consecutive month. Thus, given that economic activity has begun to rebound, a deflationary spiral appears less likely. Still, the most fascinating news about inflation relates to the Federal Reserve's decision to change its policy framework by adopting an average inflation target system. Although the move is mild and suggests that more stimulus measures may be introduced, it also suggests that the Federal Reserve will allow (or possibly) raise the inflation rate above its 2% target throughout the cycle. Furthermore, due to new changes in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, the first rate hike in this cycle will not occur until 2024 at the earliest, according to capital economic forecasts. As a result, the impact of a long-term low interest rate environment will reverberate in financial markets, including the commercial real estate sector, as investors seek returns. What are the short-term return expectations for commercial real estate? According to the American Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) consensus survey forecast for the third quarter, pension fund investors expect overall total earnings from the NCREIF Real Estate Index (NPI) to fall by 2.7% in 2020, which is 130 basis points higher than the second-quarter survey. . Respondents to the PREA survey remain optimistic that NPI will rebound in the next few years, that is, the overall return in 2021 will reach 2.5%, and the overall return in 2022 will reach 7.3%. As one would expect, retail properties are expected to be the worst affected by the pandemic, with the biggest decline. This year it was 11.4%, 2021 was 1.1%, then eventually rebounded to 5.8% in 2022. The office building industry is expected to fall into negative growth in 2020 with a total return of -2.6%. However, positive growth is expected over the next two years, 1.0% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. Apartment properties are expected to decline 0.9% in 2020, then rebound to 4.9% in 2021 and 7.9% the following year. The industrial sector remains the only major real estate type to record a positive total return this year, at 3.5%, next year 6.2%, and 2022, 8.9%, respectively. We agree with the survey's general opinion that the commercial real estate market will be in a healthy state by 2022. However, survey participants may have underestimated the impact that increased capital flows chasing real estate will have on earnings over the next few years, particularly given the slow growth and long-term low interest rate environment. Is the increase in delinquency rates an indication that bottom-up buying opportunities are imminent? CoStar estimates that after growth in all major sources of capital in the second quarter, the amount of commercial real estate loan arrears has now exceeded $64 billion. When considering more than $3 trillion in outstanding loans, the total amount of delinquent loans is relatively small, but it's important to remember that most lenders don't count delinquent loans into the total amount of arrears. As a result, as the COVID-19 loan forbearance period ends, the default rate is likely to be even higher. For example, according to DBRS Morningstar data, there are 41 billion US dollars in arrears on CMBS loans today, but currently the amount of CMBS loans tolerated by COVID-19 loans is even higher, close to 56 billion US dollars. The tolerance period during a pandemic is generally 90-180 days. As a result, we expect the default rate to rise in the coming months, which may lead to opportunities to buy non-performing loans, particularly in hotels and retail properties. The latest situation in the real estate industry · Retail: Coll...

2143d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Chen Kaifeng
How to understand the US economic recovery based on recent labor market data?

Five major trends in global healthcare technology investment after the COVID-19 pandemic

This year's COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on countries around the world, and it can be said that the most direct impact is on the healthcare industry. From medical service institutions such as major hospitals and clinics, to pharmaceutical companies, to research and development institutions for new drugs and vaccines, to medical research institutes, etc., it can be said that the entire industry is undergoing a test once every 100 years. The medical funds and medical institutions I have participated in have also changed a lot since the outbreak of the epidemic. I hope to share some of the major trends we have observed in the field of healthcare through this article. 1. The rapid development of telemedicine/online medical care After the COVID-19 outbreak, medical institutions and patients soon realized that hospitals had actually become the hardest hit area of the epidemic. The influx of patients into hospitals has led to a huge number of cases of the spread of the coronavirus. Other than physical isolation, it is difficult to have a complete solution to this. Actually, the only solution is to try not to allow patients who don't need to meet in person to seek medical treatment remotely or via the internet. (Columbia University Digital Health Seminar, Photo Credit: Columbia University) A data revealed by a Presbyterian Hospital doctor at the Columbia University Digital Health New Opportunities Online Seminar held last month was very illustrative. He said that before the COVID-19 outbreak, the actual number of patients treated online each week at New York Presbyterian Hospital was about 1,000 patients. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of people currently treating patients online each week in hospitals is about 30,000. In other words, the number of patients treated online at a top New York hospital has increased 30 times. It is worth mentioning that the government's deregulation of online diagnosis and treatment has also played a big role. In the past, doctors in the US were required to practice after local registration in each state. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the government allowed doctors to conduct online medical services over the Internet from other locations across states. This change suddenly freed up empty medical resources in many places, and also accelerated the development of online medical care. Of course, the capital market also highly respects telemedicine. One of the star companies in the US stock market this year is Teladoc (telemedicine company). The stock price has more than doubled from the beginning of the year to now, with a market capitalization of more than 15 billion US dollars. The company is headquartered in the suburbs of New York where I am located. Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2015, it is now able to provide telemedicine services in 50 states across the US. The services offered fall into six categories: platform and program services, guidance and support, expert health services, mental health services, telemedicine, and integrated virtual care. As a software company, Teladoc Health is involved in artificial intelligence and analysis. The company mainly uses telephone and video conferencing software to provide on-demand telemedicine. Patients can log in to the service at any time and get in touch with an American practitioner within a few minutes. The company's doctors treat non-emergency situations such as flu, pink eyes, infections, sinus problems, mental health issues, skin conditions, etc. The company has a network of doctors covering 450 medical subspecialties, and 55,000 doctors have joined. (Teladoc was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in July 2015, photo source: NYSE) In terms of revenue sources, Teladoc mainly signs contracts with insurance companies and large employers to generate revenue through annual annual fee income and personal consulting fees. It's worth mentioning that the company's medical services are available in around 30 languages. The rapid development of telemedicine has given a huge boost not only to medical companies, but also to businesses such as cloud computing and network service providers. There are very high requirements for data transmission speed, bandwidth, storage capacity, etc. Looking at the next step, the huge opportunity for telemedicine lies in remote surgery. Currently, there is an extreme shortage of resources for doctors in surgery, especially neurosurgery, oncology and other related industries. Patients and doctors often need to fly long distances to surgery centers. Some of the innovative investments I have participated in include projects where senior physicians perform surgeries on others through remote control robots. Once this technology matures, it will have a revolutionary impact on surgery. 2. Decentralized medical facilities One major change in recent years by a large American medical management group that the author is involved in investing in and managing is the construction of “decentralized” medical facilities. In other words, in the past few years, apart from several world-class comprehensive medical centers across the US, such as Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, and Massachusetts General Hospital, in fact, general regional comprehensive medical centers have gradually shrunk. It has been replaced by the booming development of specialty medical institutions. Examples include an American chain of cardiovascular diagnosis and treatment institutions, an American chain of dermatology clinics, clinics specializing in immune diseases, etc. More and more patients are choosing to go to specialized clinics rather than going to...

2143d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Chen Kaifeng
Five major trends in global healthcare technology investment after the COVID-19 pandemic

Other than Tesla, what other electric car company stocks can I watch?

The US stock Tesla Motors should be an absolute superstar this year. Although Tesla's stock price has declined recently, there is no doubt about the huge increase in Tesla stock. Judging from the past year, Tesla's stock price has increased about 10 times, which is a standard 10X stock described by famous American investment master Peter Lynch. Moreover, the company also complies with the stock selection criteria mentioned by Lynch in his “Defeating Wall Street”: well-known, invest in companies you are familiar with. This is also what I have observed myself. Whether on the streets of New York or Los Angeles, or in the domestic first-tier cities north, there are already more and more Tesla cars. So, in addition to Tesla, what other electric vehicle companies can pay attention to in this sector? This article would like to share and summarize other electric vehicle sector companies in the US stock market, including electric vehicles in China Securities, for everyone to discuss. 01 Tesla (Tesla logo, image source network) Speaking of electric cars, let's first take a look at the situation of Tesla cars. Tesla (Tesla, trading code is TSLA) is the godfather of the electric vehicle industry and is likely to become the hegemon of the global automotive industry in the future. Therefore, this company should be one of the best stocks to buy electric cars. Data as of 2019 shows that Tesla controls about 16% of the global passenger car market. Thanks to new vehicles and geographical expansion, this figure is up from 8% in 2017. These two drivers will remain the same for years to come. Tesla will launch the Model Y this year, followed by an electric truck. Meanwhile, the company will continue to expand into Europe, lead the market position in China, and eventually enter Latin America. (Tesla Motors, Source Network) Against the backdrop of all growth, Tesla will continue to produce the best cars in the industry because Tesla has a huge lead in battery technology and autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Tesla's brand assets are second to none. Strong brand assets won't be diluted in the short term. Over the next few years, Tesla will continue to be the unrivaled leader in the consumer electric vehicle market. Of course, for Tesla stock investors, the biggest problem is valuation. The current market value of the company has exceeded 390 billion US dollars. The corresponding current P/E is about 930 times, and the corresponding expected profit P/E is about 116 times. The ratio of the company's market capitalization to sales revenue is slightly more than 14 times. Judging from various indicators, the company's valuation is indeed extremely high, so once market sentiment fluctuates, such as recent disappointment with Battery Day (Battery Day), the stock price will plummet. 02 Wall Street's controversial electric truck company Nikola This year Nikola Motors (NKLA) is Wall Street's newly listed electric truck company that has been questioned. The company debuted in early June through a reverse merger. Within a few days, NKLA's stock price soared from $30 to $90. This company is on par with Tesla in many ways. The company name is the name adopted by the great inventor Nikola Tesla. In short, it is leading the way in creating a new type of futuristic, zero-emission, and cost-effective truck. The company intends to first use electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the commercial trucking market, and then electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the consumer car market. (“Nikola Two” (Nikola Two), Source Network) If the company successfully seizes the opportunity to completely disrupt the trucking industry, and the company should be able to receive tremendous support, technical advantages, strategic partnerships, and a leading position in the hydrogen energy market, then the company's stock price is likely to rise sharply. The company's partner agency and majority shareholder is General Motors (GM), and the management also includes some former executives from GM. Of course, questions about Nikola cars have always been heard. The founder of the company recently left his job abruptly. The company's stock price has also fallen sharply, and its market value has fallen by more than 50%. Next, the innovation and development of electric trucks and hydrogen energy trucks, as well as GM's participation and positioning in Nicola, will have an extremely important impact on the company's development. 03 Electric tricycle company Achimoto US stock market This year's electric vehicle market has a very special small company that produces electric tricycles: Arcimoto (Arcimoto, trading code: FUV). Archimoto manufactures three-wheeled electric vehicles. The company believes the future of cars could have three wheels. Its bet is that three-wheeled electric vehicles have enough special use cases around the world, and demand for these smaller, more flexible, and cheaper vehicles will be strong. (Electric tricycle company: Archimoto products, photo credit: insi...

2151d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰Teslaelectric car
Other than Tesla, what other electric car company stocks can I watch?

What do you think of the recent start of negotiations between the US and Kenya on a free trade agreement?

The US recently began negotiations on a free trade agreement with Kenya. This negotiation is a transformation. The so-called “drunkard doesn't mean alcohol”. At the beginning of the negotiations, Africa was not the White House administration's top priority in formulating a new business plan — this approach was more like a countermeasure to counter China's commercial, security, and geopolitical influence in Africa; rather than a proactive measure to fully implement initiatives such as “Prosper Africa” and “America's Strategy for Africa.” These initiatives, put forward in 2018 and 2019, represent America's strategy to win in Africa, and were originally intended to promote mutual interests between the two sides. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has implemented a strong long-term philanthropic and socio-economic development policy through the African Development Fund, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), and the US President's Emergency Assistance Program (PEPFAR). Over the past decade, although the US has generally strengthened its economic connectivity with the African continent, the process has been tortuous, and it can be said that there have been few results. Looking at it, although the COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge losses to global trade, the total trade volume between the US and Africa in 2019 was US$31.3 billion, according to data from the US Foreign Trade Census Bureau (Jan-Jul). In the same period of 2020, this figure was only $12.7 billion. A successful trade deal would be the latest step to revitalize bilateral relations, as the US Trade Representative said, “The two countries recognize that the agreement between the two countries may serve as a model for other agreements in Africa.” America's renewed strength in the close bilateral relationship between the US and Africa may create an economic lifeblood — particularly during times of financial instability and uncertainty; the COVID-19 pandemic is the most obvious example. The relationship between China and its African partners is complex and not without controversy. From a certain perspective, it can be seen that China's loan practices exist, and many cases show that China's aid has been and will continue to be inextricably linked to purchases of Chinese companies and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast, the US has provided hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts to Chinese companies under the MCC agreement, and US companies are unheard of, or have few records of, implementing projects similar to Chinese aid. China's flagship global development strategy “Belt and Road” has invested $1 trillion in about 70 countries/regions. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the Sino-US trade war, Hong Kong security laws, and the decline in global trade, the relationship between China and Africa can help mitigate the impact on the economy. At the beginning of June this year, China stated at the China-Africa summit that the first topic in the fight against COVID-19 is “mask diplomacy.” The Alibaba Foundation has led the donation of personal protective equipment to several African countries. As a major global supplier of personal protective equipment throughout Africa and beyond, Alibaba's regular business can also benefit from it. Chinese-led infrastructure construction has also played a role in the delivery of supplementary health care. Insufficient electricity generation is a long-standing problem faced by many African countries and must be increased in order to use new equipment. The main Chinese partners in this field in Africa are China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec. While hospitals, warehouses, and manufacturing centers are being built, roads must also be built. Companies involved in this task include China Civil Engineering and Construction Corporation (CCECC), which received a $6.68 billion order in 2018 to complete Nigeria's Lagos-Kano standard railway. Supported by sufficient capital and full cooperation, the efforts of Chinese partners in healthcare and supporting industries have not only provided long-lasting sustainable products and services to the African market, but also provided considerable rewards for themselves. Chinese companies have also been paying close attention to the development of infrastructure projects related to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. However, this bilateral relationship is not flawless either. China's development initiatives and aid in Africa are also a demonstration of its “soft power.” In development, the Chinese government can use this channel to increase its influence. As a partner in infrastructure construction in Africa, the Chinese government will provide loans through institutions such as the Export-Import Bank of China, which may account for 85% of the total financing amount. The terms tied to the loan usually include a Chinese company leading the project, and the equipment used can only come from China, etc. Contrary to popular belief, locals enjoy the benefits of job creation. However, as engagement increases, some major issues are emerging. For African partners, much of the infrastructure construction involves unfavorable financial, technical, and environmental terms. The Chinese state-owned enterprise that eventually establishes the proposed infrastructure is usually the same company that makes the assessment. Critics point out that development under this model is not worth the price of the project (essentially a loan), and that these projects...

2159d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰USAfree trade
What do you think of the recent start of negotiations between the US and Kenya on a free trade agreement?

How to analyze Dallas Fed President Kaplan's hawkish monetary policy remarks?

Last week, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Governor Robert Kaplan said that the Federal Reserve “has quite a way” to consider raising interest rates, but he advocates “restraint” and taking more measures to stimulate the economy. Although inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target for a long time, Kaplan said he is “aware” that inflation may accelerate over the next few years. He said that the central bank needs to be aware of the impact of its expansionary monetary policy on financial stability and the value of the dollar rather than doing more necessary. In a telephone interview, he strongly hinted that given the Federal Reserve's almost zero interest rate position and multiple special loans, no more “quantitative easing” measures should be taken at this time. Kaplan is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) decision-making committee of the Federal Reserve. He said he is “willing” to allow inflation to “moderately overfall” under certain circumstances, but he said he would oppose “promising” some average inflation as part of his currency's “forward-looking guidance”. Kaplan said that although the economy has recovered, the economy has not recovered as quickly as he had hoped due to the persistence of the coronavirus. He said that the economy is more likely to approach low-end growth of 20% in the third quarter, rather than growing at a certain rate in the high 20s in the third quarter. He expects the unemployment rate to shrink by 4.5% this year, and said the unemployment rate could be 8% to 8.5% by the end of this year. He said that as the economy is still struggling, the federal government needs to continue to provide “relief” in the form of expanding unemployment benefits and providing financial support to state and local governments. Kaplan, however, said he was very hesitant to support additional monetary stimulus. The “number one stimulus” must be virus control, he said. Although the Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate within the target range of zero to 25 basis points since March, it has slowed down the pace of bond purchases. When asked if the Federal Reserve needed to speed up the pace of asset purchases or “quantitative easing,” Kaplan objected. He said, “I want to stop judging now because we're doing another thing that may not appear on our balance sheet, but it's having a big impact, and that's these (section 13-3) plans. “One thing about these plans is that we haven't paid a lot of money compared to what we can do,” he continued. “Municipal finance plans are an example. Taking is a small part, but these are all meaningful policy steps we're doing in the corporate bond market to help support corporate credit, and even if we're not using a large amount of capital, we still have one or some obligation, and I think it's helping stabilize these markets and causing them to be very strong, which is why we're seeing so many issuances. Kaplan believes, “Therefore, in reality, the amount of economic stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve is greater than what can be seen in terms of interest rates and balance sheet size, and some of these 13-3 plans did not actually appear on the balance sheet because there was no increase in that much capital. “But that doesn't mean they aren't important. I think they had a very significant impact. Therefore, Kaplan believes that the Federal Reserve needs to be very careful and slow in introducing any additional monetary stimulus measures. “So at this point, although we've done a lot, I think I'd rather wait and hand over a few cards to see how we manage the virus and how recovery is unfolding,” he said. “I'd rather hold off until we see more information to see if it's necessary to do more because I think when you include the 13-3 plan we're working on, we're doing a ton of stuff. While emphasizing the importance of supporting economic growth to reduce unemployment after the recession caused by the virus, Kaplan also paid attention to inflation, asset prices, and the value of the dollar when evaluating appropriate monetary strategies. Last week, the US Department of Labor announced that the core consumer index had risen 0.6%. The price index was the largest since January 1991, and Kaplan's rise was slower than some companies. “There are conflicting things going on,” he said. On the one hand, there is actually huge price pressure on some products — lumber, food. Some of this is due to supply restrictions. As technological innovation accelerates the delivery of goods and services, he said, competitors' &quo...

2175d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰monetary policyChen Kaifeng
How to analyze Dallas Fed President Kaplan's hawkish monetary policy remarks?

How do you view the US macroeconomy and the trend of US stocks in the second half of the year?

2020 should be a year that will go down in history. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of the year, the global economic situation has completely changed. Based on the extensive data I have come into contact with experts and scholars in the medical community, it can be initially determined that the coronavirus will coexist with human society for a long time. Eliminating the pandemic is almost impossible. One conclusion that can be clearly concluded is that the future direction of human development will be completely out of use with the past few decades. It is likely that the 20s of the 21st century will be the beginning of a major transformation. The author hopes to use this article to make an outlook on the US macro and global economy. At the same time, we are also doing some analysis on the next trend of the core S&P 500 index of US stocks. Like other economies, the US macroeconomy consists of four major components: consumption, investment, government revenue and expenditure, and trade. The current situation has led me to judge that consumption will be the highlight of the US economy. The government's fiscal policy to stimulate the economy will also continue to increase in the second half of the year. However, investment and trade will be the weak link in the US macroeconomy in the second half of the year. 1. It is expected that there will be a sharp recovery in US consumer consumption. Although the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US occurred in mid-July, leading to the introduction of new social distancing regulations by the governments of Florida, Texas, California and other places, which affected the consumer confidence index, there is no doubt that the overall consumption situation in the US has improved dramatically. It can be said that April and May were the bottom of the US economic recession caused by the coronavirus. As the economies of New York and other northeastern US states gradually resume work, various data have shown a sharp recovery in consumption. This can be seen from the July employment changes in the figure below: The sector with the most new jobs was the leisure and hospitality industry. (US Department of Labor added employment breakdown data in July) Of course, after the COVID-19 outbreak, the government's large-scale fiscal stimulus policies, including issuing cash checks to residents, also stimulated consumption very strongly. Looking at specific consumption categories, the number of trucks and motorhomes purchased by US residents is rising rapidly, probably due to the new trend of summer car travel. Also, including furniture, home improvement spending is at the top of the rise. Everyone works from home, and after studying and attending classes at home, it triggers the need to update and upgrade the home environment. The epidemic has caused a large number of residents to shop online, see a doctor online, etc., which has had a huge impact on the development of the technology industry. Spending related to cloud computing, chips, remote video, etc. is expected to continue to grow rapidly. 2. The scale of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus will remain high for the past 30 years. The core of fiscal policies in countries around the world has been tax cuts. The large-scale tax cuts that began after US President Reagan came to power have been emulated by various governments. Personal income tax for America's highest income earners has been declining since it peaked at nearly 90% in the 70s. Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush all drastically cut personal income taxes. There has been a slight increase since Trump came to power; currently, it is around 40%. A more serious issue is corporate income tax. Over the past 30 years, countries have competed to cut taxes on enterprises. Ireland in the European Union became the country with the lowest tax rate among developed countries. It plummeted from 50% in 1982 to 12.5%, attracting a large number of global multinational companies to establish their tax headquarters in Ireland. The US tax reform at the end of 2017 also directly reduced corporate tax from 38% to 21%. Countries around the world also have a large number of special economic zones, which maintain extremely low tax rates. The research report I saw mentioned that the actual tax rate for many multinational companies around the world is close to zero. For example, Amazon in the US is extremely successful, with a market capitalization of over 1 trillion US dollars, but the income tax paid is basically close to zero. After the outbreak of COVID-19, America's fiscal stimulus was at the top of the list among countries in the world, both in absolute value and as a share of GDP. These include direct cash benefits to individuals, unemployment benefits, and substantial loan and grant subsidies for small and medium-sized enterprises. The current second wave of fiscal stimulus policies will include the suspension of payroll tax collection, a second round of cash subsidies, etc. It can be said that America's fiscal stimulus will continue at a high level. The driving effect of finance on macroeconomic growth will be very obvious in the second half of this year and next year. In line with this, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also unprecedentedly relaxed. This includes rapidly cutting interest rates to zero after the outbreak of the pandemic, and then expanding the balance sheet by more than $3 trillion. A large amount of liquidity injection has had a significant effect on the rise in the stock market and the corresponding wealth. 3. Weak investment expectations After the COVID-19 outbreak, the negative impact on the real economy was enormous. In particular, demand for machinery manufacturing, transportation, etc. is sluggish, and factory capacity utilization is very low. Now on...

2195d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰US macroeconomicsUS stocks
How do you view the US macroeconomy and the trend of US stocks in the second half of the year?