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Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

10h ago

Trump's 50% tariff hits Canada, and the Carney administration accelerates the reduction of economic dependence on the US

Comparatively, US President Trump's 50% tariff on some Canadian goods came into effect this week, once again intensifying trade tension between the US and Canada, pushing the Canadian government to speed up the search for alternative markets, expand domestic trade, and promote large-scale infrastructure projects to reduce dependence on the US economy. Currently, about 70% of Canada's exports go to the US, and the economies of the two countries are highly tied. The tariff measures previously imposed by the United States on the automobile, steel, aluminum, and timber sectors have put pressure on the Canadian manufacturing industry, leading to some job losses and a slowdown in economic growth. Canada's economy even contracted for two consecutive quarters this year, falling into a technical recession. The latest round of 50% tariffs involves about 20 billion US dollars of Canadian exports to the US, accounting for about 5.5% of Canada's total exports to the US, covering products such as hockey sticks and cement. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada will take equal tariff countermeasures to protect domestic enterprises and employment. The market is concerned that Trump previously refused to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) exemption arrangement, bringing the trade agreement into the annual review stage. Analysts believe that the removal of some trade protections by the US may lay the risk of further expanding tariff measures. Faced with trade pressure, the Carney administration is promoting economic diversification. In recent years, Canada has strengthened economic and trade cooperation with China, India, Saudi Arabia and European countries, and promoted the expansion of exports to non-US markets. According to the data, Canada's exports to non-US markets increased by 11% in 2025, reaching 33% at one point, the highest level in more than 40 years. Furthermore, Canada is strengthening its domestic economy, including reducing inter-provincial trade barriers, promoting port expansion, developing critical mineral resources, and supporting energy infrastructure construction. The government plans to invest 115 billion Canadian dollars (about 83 billion US dollars) in infrastructure funds over the next few years, and a defense budget of 82 billion Canadian dollars.

10h ago

Trump boosts AI data centers, says it will create lots of jobs and taxes

Comparing news, according to Fox News, US President Trump said earlier that any governor or local government official should welcome the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. Trump said: This will create a large number of jobs in the construction industry. We are building some of the largest factories in the world. I can say that if I were the mayor of a city or the governor of a state, and I had the chance to land a large AI factory or data center, I would definitely want it to land because it can create a large number of jobs, and the capital and tax revenue it brings in is very impressive. Trump also said that since most Americans oppose building data centers in their own communities, the AI industry needs a little help with PR.

16h ago

[Comparative Daily News Picks] Anthropic plans to include anti-AI sentiment as the main risk factor in the prospectus; Strategy's stock price hit a two-month high, and STRC returned above $96; Bernstein: Even if the “Clarity Act” is not passed, the SEC and CFTC will speed up rule-making; Dalio: The US debt crisis may break out within three years, and it is recommended to increase gold holdings

Daily AI · Crypto · Macro · Market Highlights, Bitpush helps you set priorities ↓ AI · News [Anthropic plans to include anti-AI sentiment as the main risk factor in the prospectus]. According to CNBC, Anthropic is expected to list the public's negative sentiment about artificial intelligence and data centers as a risk factor in the IPO prospectus to be released in the next few weeks. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic recently held a pre-listing “market trial” meeting with bankers and investors. Investors focused on competitive pressure, the impact of open source models on profit margins, and the risks that may be brought about by a slowdown in data center construction. Anthropic is currently valued at close to $1 trillion in the private equity market and is preparing to hit a major IPO. However, as Americans' concerns about AI replacing employment and data center expansion heat up, the related backlash sentiment is becoming a new challenge facing the company's listing. The company has previously achieved an annualized revenue operating rate of more than 65 billion US dollars. [Apple cuts Siri and Vision Pro team positions, and resources shift to AI and new devices] Compared to news, Apple (AAPL.O) is laying off employees from various teams responsible for Siri's digital assistants and Vision Pro headsets. The total impact of this layoff is more than 200 people. Of these, about 100 jobs in the Vision Pro department have been abolished, and about 100 other positions in the Siri and software teams have been cut. The move is part of the company's efforts to focus resources on new devices and artificial intelligence. People familiar with the matter said that in this adjustment, Apple has basically shut down a team dedicated to the Vision Pro game business, while also reducing the size of the department responsible for producing immersive video content for the device. Apple admitted in a statement that the company is making adjustments to some teams “to drive business development and provide the best experience for users.” [Castle Securities: Over 80% of the overall risk in the Situational Awareness Fund portfolio has been divested] According to the Financial Times, Castle Securities founder Ken Griffin responded to the company's acquisition of Situational Awareness assets under Leopold (Leopold) in a letter to clients on Friday. According to a letter obtained by CNBC, Griffin told clients that Castle Securities had divested more than 80% of the overall risk in the original purchased portfolio by conducting more than 100 major transactions (with a market value of more than $4 billion). In his letter, Griffin wrote, “A transaction of this scale would not have been possible without the full cooperation of the transaction teams and lead brokerage teams of the banks serving the two companies. I am very grateful for their dedicated efforts to complete the portfolio transfer quickly.” Griffin also confirmed that the company's flagship multi-strategy fund, the Wellington Fund, had a return of 5.94% in July, which is the fund's best monthly performance since 2022. [AI cloud company Nscale seeks to raise 3 billion US dollars in US IPOs] In comparison, AI cloud company Nscale is reportedly seeking to raise 3 billion US dollars in a US IPO. In the crypto market [Strategy stock price hit a two-month high, STRC returned above $96], the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) stock price rose to a two-month high today as the Bitcoin price briefly broke through $79,400. It broke through $120 during the intraday period, then partially regained its gains. Meanwhile, the price of STRC, Strategy's preferred stock product, also surpassed $96 for the first time since June. Previously, STRC's price once fell below $70 due to concerns about its ability to pay dividends and the ability of the stock price to maintain the $100 target for a long time. [Bernstein: Even if the Clarity Act is not passed, the SEC and CFTC will speed up rulemaking] Comparing news, the Bernstein analyst team led by Gautam Chhugani released a report stating that regardless of the procedural voting results of the “Clarity Act” on September 15, the certainty of US crypto regulation is expected to increase. They expect the SEC and CFTC to accelerate rulemaking in areas such as native crypto asset issuance, tokenized stocks, perpetual futures, computing power derivatives, and predictive markets. This regulatory clarity of expectations has become one of the broader supporting factors in the crypto market. 【A...

18h agoBitpushNews#Compare Daily Picks

Analysis: Bitcoin hits the $80,000 mark, ETF capital inflows and macro-liquidity are key variables

Comparing news, Bitcoin rose to its highest level since May before the US market on Friday. After hitting $79,400 in the intraday period, it hovered around $78,000, just one step away from the $80,000 key resistance level. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, and market risk appetite was boosted. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said that this round of growth is mainly driven by macro factors, not the crypto market's own factors, and Bitcoin is still highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and actual yield. Earlier, US inflation data fell short of expectations and employment data weakened. In addition, the US Treasury announced measures to reduce long-term treasury yields, driving up risk assets. Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is currently an important dividing line for Bitcoin. To achieve an effective breakthrough, the market needs to further confirm that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting towards easing. Relevant signals may be released at the Jackson Hole meeting next week. However, he also warned that if inflation continues to be high or the dollar weakens, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Furthermore, the scale of increase in holdings of large holders is still limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support continued breakthroughs. Subsequent US spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows and macro-data performance will be key indicators for judging market continuity. (CoinDesk) This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

They are all stealing earlier data. Where exactly is VC Alpha hidden?

Author: insights4vc Compilation: Shenchao TechFlow Original title: Private Equity Market Intelligence Warfare Heats Up: In the AI Era, Where Did VC Alpha Come From? Guide to Deep Wave: Venture capital returns are extremely concentrated, and finding a good company in the early stages is almost the life and death line of a fund. This article breaks down the latest evolution of private equity market data tools and whether they can actually bring in excess profits. This is a sobering map for investors who are using AI and research tools to find projects. Venture capital has always been an information business. The advantage often lies in timing: founders tell former colleagues instead of updating data first; new companies start recruiting people before they appear in the database; investors start watching a team before the funding is announced. This advantage is important because VC returns are highly concentrated. According to data from the 2026 Oxford Academic Study, 4.5% of the investment amount contributed to a return of about 60% in a long-term LP data set. [1] Therefore, missing a few excellent companies can affect the entire fund. But finding them early is only part of the problem. Investors also need to develop beliefs, get credits, obtain meaningful holdings, and keep things right for a few years. The private equity market data industry is now getting closer to the moment the company was born. PitchBook, Crunchbase, Dealroom, Tracxn, and CB Insights remain core recording systems for transactions, funds, valuations, and company history. PitchBook generated revenue of $174.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to nearly $700 million in annualized revenue. [2] The new platform is not replacing this layer. They're extending this layer with faster updates, behavioral data, and signals that predate traditional company records. Three changes stand out the most. First, companies such as Harmonic and Specter are building a continuously updated map of companies and people, rather than relying mainly on regularly updated data. Second, specialty products are looking for earlier behavioral signals. Evertrace tracks metrics formed by founders, including company registrations, technical activity, research, and domain names. Frontrun monitors changes in selected venture capitals' interest maps on X. Third, the API and Model Context Protocol (MCP) are moving this data into the fund's own software and AI workflows. Crustdata represents the infrastructure side of this market, while Affinity complements first-party relationship data from emails, calendars, and CRM events. Adoption is visible, but evidence of excess return on investment is not clear. Harmonic says hundreds of venture capital teams use its platform, and Specter reports more than 300 investment institutions, Evertrace more than 200 funds, and Affinity more than 3,300 private equity firms. Listed company Tracxn disclosed that it had 2,289 customer accounts in fiscal year 2026. [3] [4] [5] [6] Most of these figures are self-reported by companies. Vendors rarely disclose the complete set of companies unearthed by their models, making it difficult to assess accuracy, recall rates, false positives, and the economic value of individual leads. No single signal alone is enough. Employee departures may be early but vague. Company registration is objective but common. GitHub activities are valuable in developer-led markets, but have limited relevance in other areas. Hiring speed and employee migration provide broader signals, while revenue, customer, and usage data are often more valuable for decision-making, but come later. When several credible industry experts focus on the same company, investors' attention can provide early signs, even though this signal is platform-dependent and may reinforce itself. The strongest defensive sources are likely to be hidden deeper in the data stack: historical time series that cannot be reconstructed later, accurate physical analysis across people and companies, authorized first-party fund data, and distribution through CRM systems, APIs, and agents. Public data is not necessarily proprietary. However, five years of correctly time-stamped change history can become a proprietary asset. AI is more likely to make these infrastructures more easily queried rather than eliminate the need for them. As research, classification, and workflow costs drop, clean data, sources, and institutional context become more valuable. Investment decisions, quotas, and relationships are still not something a simple layer of automation can solve. The likely outcome is that a broader market for private market intelligence will emerge, rather than an independent search for project software categories. A mature database will increase discoveries and...

1d agoburnking

AI is fully penetrating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. 15 economic discussions mention AI 18 times

Comparing news, the minutes of the July meeting recently released by the Federal Reserve show that policymakers mentioned AI 18 times in 15 paragraphs discussing economic conditions and prospects. Officials at the meeting warned that large-scale AI infrastructure investments may put more widespread pressure on overall inflation by boosting aggregate demand, while there is still great uncertainty about the impact of AI on the job market. Some officials believe that AI-related price pressure is currently only focused on chips, software, and some consumer electronics products, but others point out that the expansion of AI investment may have or will have an impact on overall prices. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials are concerned that AI capital expenditure is increasingly dependent on debt financing provided by non-bank investors and regional banks. Once AI asset pricing is drastically reversed, it may lead to a drastic repricing of stocks and an impact on financial institutions and consumer spending. The minutes of the conference also pointed out that the impact of AI on the job market may currently be limited. While data center construction is creating jobs in some regions, it is also exacerbating the shortage of jobs such as electricians, plumbers, and construction workers. At the same time, some officials warned that there is still great uncertainty about whether and when the productivity gains promised by AI will be fulfilled.

1d ago

Micron Announces $100 Million Investment to Set Up Research Laboratories

Comparing news, the CEO of Micron Technology announced the establishment of Micron Research Labs (Micron Research Labs), which plans to invest 10 billion US dollars, and the investment cycle is decades long. The lab will bring together customers, suppliers, academia, government, and the broader semiconductor ecosystem to break through existing technology roadmaps and explore future possibilities. Micron said the move reflects a long-term commitment to early innovation. The company's team has accumulated more than 6.2 million patents. Micron Research Laboratories will join Micron's investment portfolio of more than $250 billion in the US manufacturing industry, and is expected to create more than 90,000 US jobs, covering fabs, engineers, technicians, apprentices, suppliers, and communities. Micron emphasized that current decisions will determine who can lead the AI economy in the future. America's AI future will be built on memories made in the US, and these memories are produced by Micron.

1d ago

Anthropic economists decipher the AI unemployment paradox: skill-biased technology

Comparing news, Peter McCrory, head of economics at Anthropic, recently explained the AI unemployment paradox. He pointed out that AI capabilities have improved significantly, and it is reasonable to question why it has not had a significant impact on the unemployment rate. According to the US Business Trends and Outlook Survey, about one-fifth of US companies use AI to some extent, and productivity growth in the US has increased in recent years, some of which may be related to AI. McCrory said that the labor market unemployment rate is still close to the level of full employment determined by the Federal Reserve, and it is difficult to draw clear conclusions about the impact of AI even with in-depth data. The basic judgment is that up to now, AI has shown the characteristics of skills-oriented technology. It automates some work processes while complementing and amplifying professional abilities that rely on human participation, thereby creating maximum value in human-robot collaboration.

1d ago

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: FOMC minutes are hawkish, and the market focuses on high interest rates for longer

Comparing news, Lewis Huang, chief analyst of Bitget CFD, said in a live broadcast yesterday that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting overall sent an eagle signal. Despite keeping interest rates unchanged at this meeting, many officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to fall back to the 2% target, further policy tightening or even raising interest rates again is still a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term, but should re-evaluate the impact of “maintaining high interest rates for longer” on the US dollar, US bond yields, gold, and US stock valuations. Lewis Huang pointed out that the future direction of the market will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rises and the job market remains resilient, US dollar and US bond yields may strengthen, and highly valued assets such as gold and Nasdaq 100 may be under pressure; conversely, if inflation cools down significantly and employment and consumption weaken at the same time, the market will once again raise the Fed's easing expectations, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to be supported. He recommended that CFD traders focus on the trend of US two-year treasury bond yields, the US dollar index and gold, wait for price breakouts and retracement confirmation after major data is released, avoid chasing the first wave of fluctuations, and strictly control leverage and stop-loss risks.

1d ago