美国宏观经济 · 29

Opinion: Walsh should publicly resist Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and maintain the independence of the central bank

Comparing news, Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Levin wrote that US President Trump and his allies are continuing to push to influence the Fed's decisions through personnel adjustments, including trying to remove Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta chairman and meddling in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta chairman selection to expand their influence on White House supporters in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Levin believes that Kevin Warsh, who is regarded as a popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve chairman, should publicly oppose White House intervention, support Jerome Powell and Cook to complete their terms, and demand that the White House withdraw from the regional Federal Reserve chairman selection process. Otherwise, his credibility to lead the Federal Reserve in the future and influence within the committee will be weakened. The independence of the Federal Reserve is the key to maintaining stable inflation expectations and the credibility of monetary policy. Continued political intervention may damage the macroeconomic stability of the United States.

47d ago

Macro data may dominate the crypto market trend this week. PCE, unemployment benefits, and housing market data have become key indicators for the Fed to cut interest rates

Comparatively, the crypto market will focus on US macroeconomic data this week, including indicators such as PCE inflation, initial jobless claims, housing prices, and new home sales to determine whether the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates. Currently, the forecast market and CME FedWatch both show that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June. At the same time, the market continues to pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and oil price fluctuations. If energy prices continue to rise, it may increase inflationary pressure and suppress risk asset performance. In addition, this week will also usher in multiple DAO governance voting and token unlocking events, including EIGEN, HUMA, GRASS and other project token unlocks.

89d ago

The sharp rise in US GDP growth and interest rates may come to nothing. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January falls to 13.3%

Comparative news, according to CME Federal Reserve observation data, after the US macroeconomic data was released today, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in January rose to 31% last week. The initial quarterly real GDP annualized rate for the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, recorded 4.3%. The US GDP growth rate soared, making it the strongest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2023. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 40.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 4.9%. The dates for the next two Federal Reserve FOMC meetings are January 28 and March 18, 2026, respectively.

242d ago

Stablecoin Strategy from a Global Perspective: An Inventory of Major Economies

Author: @BlazingKevin_, The Stablecoin at Movemaker Original title: Analyzing the Real Adoption and Expansion of US Dollar Stablecoins In our previous analysis, we have demonstrated that the birth of Plasma was a key strategic move by Tether to radically transform its business model from a passive “stablecoin issuer” to an active “global payment infrastructure operator” in order to recapture the great value taken by third-party public chains. The urgency and importance of this strategic layout is being amplified by an irreversible macro-trend: the real-world adoption of dollar stablecoins is undergoing a significant paradigm shift and entering a phase of accelerated expansion. 1. Quantitative expansion of the total market volume First, from a macro data perspective, the overall size of the stablecoin market is experiencing a new round of structural growth. Compared to the market cycle two years ago, the total market value of global stablecoins has climbed from around $120 billion to $290 billion, achieving a 140% increase. This data shows that demand for stablecoins has surpassed the scope of speculation and trading in the native field of cryptography, and has begun to gain wider market recognition as an independent asset class and financial instrument. 2. The explosion of core application scenarios: The strongest reflection of the growth of cross-border payments is in the vertical field of cross-border payments. Two years ago, actual use cases for using stablecoins for cross-border payments were in their infancy and were almost negligible. According to the latest data, the current monthly settlement volume in this field has broken the 60 billion US dollar mark. More notable is its growth slope — 20% to 30% month-on-month growth, which clearly shows a steep adoption curve. Despite rapid growth, its market penetration rate is still very early. Compared to the current global total volume of traditional cross-border payments of up to 200 trillion US dollars per year, stablecoins still account for an insignificant share, which indicates that there is still huge room for growth tens or even 100 times in the future. 3. Core driving force: The demand for “currency alternatives” in high-inflation economies is behind the acceleration in the adoption of stablecoins, stemming from a strong economic driving force in the real world. This is particularly evident in emerging markets and high-inflation countries. An in-depth analysis report by Cointelegraph in August indicated that in countries such as Venezuela, the sovereign currency (bolivar) has basically lost its core function as a medium for daily commercial transactions due to hyperinflation. Stringent capital controls, a failed local banking system, and chaotic official exchange rates have combined to form a “scorched earth” financial environment. In this environment, citizens and businesses actively seek currency alternatives, and the US dollar stablecoin, which has sufficient liquidity and value stability, is far more reliable than cash or local bank transfers, and has become a “hard currency” chosen spontaneously by the market. This phenomenon is not unique to Venezuela. Since the 2022 wave of global inflation, many major economies, including Argentina, Nigeria, Turkey, and Brazil, have faced severe pressure to depreciate their currencies, which has spawned huge storage of value and safe-haven demand for payments. Venezuela is ranked 18th in terms of global cryptocurrency adoption. Source: Chainalysis According to Chainalysis data, Venezuela already ranks 18th in the world in terms of cryptocurrency adoption. More compelling data is that in 2024, 47% of the country's small transactions under $10,000 were completed through stablecoins, making it the ninth largest crypto adopter in the world by per capita terms. This is no longer a niche act, but proof that stablecoins are deeply embedded in their socioeconomic fabric. More importantly, this kind of adoption is gradually moving from a “gray” zone spontaneously by the public to an officially recognized “sunny” zone. In Brazil, stablecoins have been integrated into PIX, a national-level instant payment system; in Argentina, the use of stablecoins to pay large contract payments such as housing rent has also been recognized by law. These cases mark the adoption of stablecoins, which are evolving from “spontaneous at the bottom” to a higher stage of “confirmation at the top.” US dollar stablecoins: The three strategic pivots of US national interest Since the clarification of the regulatory framework represented by the “Genius Act”, the growth trajectory of US dollar stablecoins has accelerated exponentially, and their long-term potential is far from reaching the ceiling. This explosive growth has become deeply tied not only to market behavior, but also to America's strategic interests at the national level. Looking at it from a macro perspective, the global expansion of US dollar stablecoins can at least...

316d agoLuxurytracy#stablecoins

Dollar strengthens, traders call the US the “least bad choice”

Comparative news. According to a report by Jin 10, on Wednesday, due to financial and economic concerns in the Asia-Pacific region to Europe, the US dollar rose against the currencies of the other G10 member countries, approaching a two-month high. Hedge funds have increased their put option bets on the euro and yen to help strengthen the dollar. Although the US government is in a state of shutdown, negative factors in other regions of the world have overshadowed this shortcoming, and the market is re-evaluating its views on the US macroeconomic outlook.

318d ago

Deutsche Bank: The US “Beautiful Act” will vigorously promote the US dollar stablecoin and pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

Comparing news, the recent US budget bill “Beautiful Bill” is likely to pass a vote and become law. Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller, unexpectedly proposed a possible interest rate cut in July, while the Federal Reserve Board of Governors began discussing requests to liberalize banking supervision. According to Deutsche Bank, the main elements of this plan include transferring ownership of US treasury bonds from foreign investors to domestic investors, increasing domestic financial suppression (financial suppression), vigorously promoting US dollar stablecoins, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and significantly weaken the US dollar. George Sarevelos, head of global foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, said in a recently released report that these events seem unrelated, but they actually indicate that the US macroeconomic policy mix may change significantly in the next few years. They called this transformation the “Pennsylvania Plan,” named it after the street where the US Treasury is located in Washington, D.C., and that the plan is aimed at helping the US government cope with the amount of debt.

421d ago

Matrixport: BTC momentum is weakening, US macroeconomic rift

Comparing news, Matrixport released a report saying that BTC momentum is weakening while the US macroeconomic economy is fracturing. Bitcoin has pulled back 3%, Ethereum is down 4%, and Solana is down 11%, confirming a shift in market momentum. Two key economic indicators hit multi-month lows, yet most investors are still focused on ETF funding flows. ISM's non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating a mild contraction in the economy. Analysts suggest focusing on oil prices and dollar indicators, warning that tariff policies may rekindle inflationary pressure and make the Federal Reserve unwilling to cut interest rates too soon. Bitcoin will turn bearish if it falls below $96,719. According to the report, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will continue to rise in an environment where economic data may deteriorate significantly.

442d ago

10T Holdings founder: BTC will reach $180,000 by summer 2026

Comparing news, BTC retested $92,000 after a good week's closing, but traders still believe that BTC prices will experience a deeper correction. The US macroeconomic data was good this week, and the Fed is facing multiple pressures. Analysts believe that the Fed is helpless and predicts that interest rates will fall and liquidity will surge. Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, recently predicted that the BTC price would rise more than 110% to $180,000 by the summer of 2026. He pointed out that this forecast is based on changes in the current macroeconomic environment, including the tightening of US fiscal policies and changes in market liquidity. As liquidity returns to the market, capital will flow back into risky assets such as BTC to drive their prices higher.

481d ago

Grayscale Macro Express: Bitcoin's safe-haven logic under tariffs and stagflation

Original title: Market Byte: Incentives, Stagflation, and Bitcoin Original Author: Zach Pandl Compiled by Asher, Odaily Planet Daily Editor's Note: This article analyzes the impact of recent changes in the US global tariff policy on the financial market, in particular the unique performance of Bitcoin in this process; explores the long-term impact of tariffs on the economy, particularly asset allocation choices during periods of stagflation, and the performance of Bitcoin and gold in this environment; analyzed The impact of the current trade tension on the US dollar and the potential adoption of Bitcoin. Finally, we look forward to the economic outlook for the next few years, pointing out that scarce commodity assets such as Bitcoin and gold may attract more attention and demand in a high-inflation environment. Since the US announced a new global tariff policy on April 2, global asset prices have fallen sharply, and only gradually picked up until the suspension of tariffs announced by Trump this morning (excluding China). However, the initial tariff announcement affected almost all assets, and Bitcoin's decline was relatively small on a risk-adjusted basis during this time. Therefore, if Bitcoin's correlation with stock market returns is 1:1, a fall in the S&P 500 should mean a 36% drop in Bitcoin's price. However, the reality is that Bitcoin has declined by only 10%, which highlights the significant diversification benefits of holding Bitcoin as part of an investment portfolio even in the event of a deep market retracement. After risk adjustment, the Bitcoin price decline is relatively small. In the short term, the outlook for the global market may depend on trade negotiations between the White House and other countries. Although negotiations may lead to lower tariffs, setbacks in negotiations may also trigger more retaliation. The actual and implied volatility of traditional markets is still very high, making it difficult to predict how the trade conflict will evolve in the next few weeks. Therefore, investors should carefully adjust their positions in a high-risk market environment. Furthermore, the increase in Bitcoin's price volatility is far lower than that of stocks, and several indicators show that speculative traders in the cryptocurrency market hold relatively low positions. If macro risks are mitigated in the next few weeks, the cryptocurrency market value should be expected to rebound. The implicit volatility of stocks is close to Bitcoin, and although its price has declined over the past week, the impact of higher tariffs on Bitcoin in the longer term will depend on its impact on the economy and international capital flows. Tariffs (and associated changes in non-tariff trade barriers) may cause “stagflation” and may cause structural weakness in demand for the US dollar, so in this case, increased tariffs and changes in global trade patterns may be positive factors for Bitcoin's adoption in the medium to long term. Asset allocation stagflation under stagflation refers to an economic state where economic growth is slow/slowing down while the inflation rate is high/accelerating. Tariffs raise the price of imported goods, and as a result (at least in the short term) will cause inflation to rise. At the same time, tariffs may also slow economic growth by reducing residents' actual income and enterprises facing adjustment costs. In the long run, this impact may be partially offset by increased domestic investment in manufacturing, and most economists expect that these new tariffs will continue to weigh on the economy for at least the next year. From a historical perspective, asset returns in the 1970s most vividly showed the impact of stagflation on financial markets (Bitcoin was too short to backtest its performance). In that decade, the annualized return on US stocks and long-term bonds was about 6%, lower than the average inflation rate of 7.4% at the time. In contrast, the annualized increase in the price of gold was about 30%, far exceeding the inflation rate. Traditional assets generally had negative actual returns in the 1970s, and extreme situations during periods of stagflation were rare, but their impact on asset returns was more or less consistent over time. The chart below shows the average annual return of US stocks, government bonds, and gold over different economic growth and inflation cycles from 1900 to 2024. Stagflation reduces stock returns and increases gold returns. Historical data reveals three key points: when GDP is high or accelerates and inflation is low or slowing, stock market returns usually increase. Therefore, during periods of stagflation, stock market returns will fall as expected, and investors may need to reduce equity allocation; when economic growth is sluggish and inflation rises, gold often performs better, especially during periods of stagnation, when gold becomes the main tool to hedge against inflation. This shows that in this environment, gold is usually a...

499d agoWendy#tariffs #Tariff war topics #Bitcoin #Stagflation #grayscale #Trump #The White House #USD #inflationary #gold

Real Vision chief analyst: Bitcoin may reach a record high before the end of the second quarter

Comparing news, according to Cointelegraph, Real Vision chief cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts said that despite recent fluctuations in the US macroeconomic situation, Bitcoin is likely to break through the all-time high of $109,000 earlier than expected. It also said that the market may have underestimated the speed at which Bitcoin is rising, and that it may hit a new record high before the end of the second quarter. Whether US President Trump's tariff policy and fears of a potential recession are more clear, this prediction holds true. Bitcoin fell below $100,000 on February 2, and the decline was due to Trump's newly imposed tariffs and uncertainty about US interest rates. Jamie Coutts made an optimistic rebound forecast based on the easing of financial conditions, the weakness of the Federal Reserve's dollar, and the People's Bank of China's increased liquidity investment since early 2025. It also said that financial conditions were drastically relaxed this month. In particular, the US dollar recorded the third-largest three-day decline since 2015. At the same time, interest rates and treasury bond volatility declined significantly. Liquidity is still the core of investment in all asset classes.

512d ago