长期持有者 · 866

Short-term capital gains have come to an end, and Binance's Bitcoin inflows hit a new high since February

Comparing the news, crypto analyst Darkfost wrote that the cumulative increase of Bitcoin over the past 3 days was over 23%. As prices rose rapidly, the market began to show signs of a profit settlement. About 53,000 BTC flowed into major trading platforms, of which about 17,800 BTC were transferred to Binance. Notably, all of the 1.78 million BTC flowing into Binance came from short-term holders, particularly investors who held positions for less than a day. In contrast, long-term holders who have held BTC for more than 6 months have not transferred any BTC to Binance. This means that this round of capital inflows is mainly driven by short-term speculative capital, rather than structured sell-offs from long-term holders. According to the data, this is the largest BTC flow into Binance since February 2026. In February of this year, short-term holders experienced a clear round of market capitulation. Currently, short-term capital is once again entering and leaving trading platforms on a large scale, reflecting a marked increase in speculative trading activity, and these brief and sudden capital flows are also driving the volatility of the crypto market to rise again. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

4h agoburnking

CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin is trying to establish an active supply cost base, around $70,400 is a key level

Comparing news, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trying to recover the “Active Supply Cost Basis” (Active Supply Cost Basis) level. Darkfost notes that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once in the past 7 years. By excluding Bitcoin, which has been dormant for a long time, it is possible to obtain an actual holding cost that is more in line with the current market structure. The realized price (Realized Price) is approximately $70,400. He said that the last time Bitcoin successfully regained this level was in early April, then the market fell below the region again in early June, and sellers regained their dominant position. Darkfost said that if BTC continues to be based on active supply costs this time, it may mean that the market is forming a longer-term upward trend, rather than a brief breakout that only lasted about two months before. The indicator is usually used by the market to observe changes in long-term holders' costs and the state of the Bitcoin market cycle. Whether it can stabilize at around $70,400 will become an important observation point for subsequent long and short forces. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

2d agoburnking

VanEck: 8 out of 12 capitulation indicators light up, Bitcoin pullback may be nearing its end

Comparing news, VanEck said that Bitcoin's pullback, which has continued for nearly 11 months, may be nearing its end and may enter the accumulation phase. Researchers such as Patrick Bush, senior investment analyst at VanEck and Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research, pointed out that 8 of the 12 indicators in its “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are already in the capitulation range. In the past three months, all 12 indicators have once fallen into the surrender zone. Researchers believe that these readings show that the market has gone through a phase similar to “Bitcoin price capitulation” and may currently be approaching or entering a period of accumulation. As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at around $64,700. Since the beginning of June, Bitcoin has generally fluctuated between $58,000 and $66,500, which is still about 48% below its all-time high of around $126,300 set in October 2025. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF just recorded the strongest single-day capital inflow since the beginning of May, providing some support to the market. However, long-term holders sold around 356,000 BTC in the past month, reducing their share of supply holdings to less than 60%, indicating that the market structure is still in the rebalancing stage.

3d ago

A 14-year silent 2012 Bitcoin wallet transferred 212 bitcoins worth $13.72 million

According to Twitter, a Bitcoin wallet created in 2012 transferred 212 bitcoins after 14 years of silence, worth $13.72 million at the price at the time of transfer. This wallet address was created on August 10, 2012. This batch of bitcoins was initially worth $2,346, and the single price was $11.07; based on the price of $64761 in the article, if all were sold, the holder could achieve a profit of 584725%. The identity of the wallet owner is still unknown. 212 bitcoins have been transferred from the old P2PKH wallet to the unmarked Bech32 wallet and stored in multiple batches. The Coldcard vulnerability led to the theft of nearly 2000 bitcoins, which may have prompted some long-term holders to transfer assets, but the address was not linked to a known entity.

3d ago

Bitcoin Volatility Drops to Cycle Low, Traders Turn to AI Stocks and Predictive Markets

Comparatively, Bitcoin's volatility recently fell to a multi-year low. The actual 30-day volatility was about 42%, while the S&P 500 index was about 18%. The gap in volatility between the two is the smallest in history. The market is at a standoff between buyers and sellers, and the sell-off by enterprises and mining companies limits room for growth, while the clearance of leverage and the continued accumulation of long-term holders limited the decline. As Bitcoin's volatility declined, some short-term traders began to shift their risk appetite to assets such as AI stocks, tokenized stocks, stock perpetual contracts, and predictive markets. According to NYDIG research, short-term traders are more likely to chase volatility, narrative momentum, and potential returns, and traders seeking 5x or 10x returns can now choose between Bitcoin, Nvidia, gold, stock perpetual contracts, 0DTE options, and sporting event contracts. According to the data, the monthly trading volume of traditional asset perpetual contracts on crypto trading platforms has increased from US$52 billion in January to US$268 billion in June, an increase of more than fivefold in half a year. Meanwhile, Korean retail traders have clearly switched from cryptocurrencies to AI-related stocks, and trading volume on major Korean crypto exchanges dropped by up to 80% year over year. CoinDesk pointed out that the Bitcoin market is currently more like a dormant state, where declining transaction participation, deep market contraction, and regulatory uncertainty are all reducing volatility. If US crypto regulations make substantial progress, the macro environment changes, or new market narratives emerge, the current low volatility pattern may be broken, and weak liquidity may further amplify price fluctuations. BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT$65,500 or above Under $65,500 Powered by Moment Predict. Earn points. Unlock the Airdrop Edit Delete CryptoBTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT$65,500 or aboveUnder $65,500 Resolves Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 65499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 21, 2026. Outcome verified from CF Outcomes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to evaluate this market is based on CF Benchmarks' evaluation Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are expensive. The official and final value is the average of these prices. Note: this event is directional.crypto2026-08-222026-08-22t 06:59:59.999 Z https://moment.vision/mapi/uploads/openai/images/20260818180527_351744376fc6f3dc.jpg6a849f2737100b9ab8ae0529

4d ago

Analysis: If Bitcoin falls below $49,400, long-term holders will lose money overall. Currently, the sell-off has reached its lowest level in the cycle

Comparing news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. According to the published analysis, on-chain data shows that the cost base for Bitcoin long-term holders is $49,400, and the corresponding current price multiplier is 1.3 times. Bitcoin has been in the low risk zone between 1.5 times the long-term holders' cost base for 78 consecutive days, and the corresponding price of 1.5 times is around $74,100. The current supply for long-term holders is 16.35 million units, which is only 58,000 units below the historical peak of 16.41 million units on July 30. There has only been a decline in supply in 2 of the past 15 days, indicating that the sell-off frequency of the group is close to its lowest level. Analysts point out that these two signals point in common: valuations are still low compared to the long-term holders' cost base, while long-term holders show little sign of continued distribution. Analysts emphasized that this combination is a constructive supply structure, but it does not in itself constitute an independent sign that a new round of growth has begun. The current situation shows that long-term holders as a whole are still unprofitable (the price is about 30% higher than the cost base), and the market is still in the low part of the historical valuation range, but further confirmation from the demand side and price side is still needed if the price is to develop a new upward trend. If the price falls below $49,400, long-term holders will move into an overall unrealized loss and enter a lower risk zone from a valuation perspective, but from the perspective of market conditions, this will mean a significant increase in pressure on long-term holders.

4d ago

Analyst: Bitcoin long-term holders' supply is close to an all-time peak, and selling pressure remains low

Comparing news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. According to the post, the Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) supply is currently 16.35 million BTC, which is only 58,000 units below the historical peak of 16.41 million BTC set on July 30, and has increased by 1.38 million BTC over the past 90 days. Meanwhile, LTH supply declined for only 2 of the past 15 days, and the frequency of decline was close to the lowest level, indicating no significant selling pressure. In terms of price, Bitcoin is currently around $64,200, and the LTH cost base is about $49,400, corresponding to 1.3 times. It has been in the lower risk zone between the LTH cost base and 1.5 times ($74,100) for 78 consecutive days. If it breaks above $74,100, it will enter the normal risk zone, and if it falls below $49,400, LTH as a whole will fall into loss. Analysts pointed out that the current supply structure is constructive, but it is not yet possible to separately confirm that demand is strong enough to drive a new round of growth.

4d ago

Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders were not distributed on a large scale, and early tokens were once again active due to the Coldcard hack

Comparing news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. According to the publication, the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Average during the dormant period rose to 19 days and reached the 365-day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the year. BTC, which was previously hoarded, is becoming active again. But after the Coldcard hack, this part of the rise probably wasn't due to sell-offs, but was related to large amounts of BTC being transferred to new wallets. Therefore, the current rise in the dormant period should not be automatically interpreted as distribution by long-term holders. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

8d agoburnking

Analysis: BTC's high-ranking chips have been reduced by 41.5% in 2025, and the biggest supply pressure in the market may be easing

Comparing the news, on-chain analyst Murphy said that currently all chips bought in BTC in 2025 have been held at a loss since then. Therefore, in addition to wallet migration, a decrease in chip size in 2025 is likely to mean that holders will cut meat and sell it. According to the data, up to now, there are about 4.77 million BTC chips left purchased in 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year. Judging from the downward trend, this group went through two stages: chips declined rapidly before February of this year, and the decline rate slowed significantly after February, but remained at a certain slope. Murphy believes that 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side of the current market. In contrast, BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 are still floating and have basically completed the release of high-position slots. The downward slope of the curve is gradually flattening, which means that the selling pressure on long-term holders is weakening. Historical data shows that in the past two lower rounds of the bear market, there was a marked decline in high-ranking chips: at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, high-ranking purchase chips decreased by about 51% in 2021; at the bottom of the bear market in 2018, high-level chips decreased by about 62% in 2017. Referring to the historical cycle, Murphy believes that at the bottom of this bear market, the decline in high-ranking chips in 2025 may be in the 50%-60% range. The current 41.5% drop means there is still some room for release. However, the judgment did not take into account BTC purchased by institutions such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy. Most of these chips have been locked down for a long time, which may reduce actual market supply pressure.

8d ago

Analysis: The share of Bitcoin short-term holders continues to decline, and the market may be close to the end of the bear market

Comparing news, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that the number of short-term holders (STH) in the Bitcoin market is declining, which is a positive sign. Currently, the share of BTC supply held by STH has declined markedly, with 1.2% held for less than 1 day, 2% for 1 day to 1 week, 5.6% for 1 week to 1 month, 6.7% for 1 to 3 months, and 8.1% for 3 to 6 months. Darkfost points out that this trend will occur at the end of every bear market. On the one hand, this means that the share of long-term holders (LTH) is increasing. BTC held by LTH is less likely to be transferred than STH, which is active and more sensitive to market fluctuations. On the other hand, the decline in STH's share also indicates that market demand has yet to return. Every BTC purchase creates a new STH UTXO, and when market demand is strong, STH's share of supply will rise rapidly and may eventually reach a high position near the top of the market. Darkfost believes that the market is currently approaching a negative extreme state, where market attention and demand are still low, and the number of STH continues to decline, which is generally a positive sign.

9d ago