风险资产 · 1841

The global bond market is currently selling off, and the scale of panda bond issuance has reached a record high

Comparative news. According to CCTV financial reports, the yield on long-term treasury bonds of the world's major economies has continued to rise recently, and the sell-off pressure on the bond market is heating up. However, the Chinese bond market and exchange rate have maintained a relatively smooth operation, and the scale of panda bond issuance has reached a record high for the same period in history. According to the data, as of August 21, the cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds in 2026 reached 209.975 billion yuan, an increase of over 73% over the previous year. Against the backdrop of drastic fluctuations in global bond markets, international institutions are increasing domestic RMB financing, drawing attention. According to industry insiders, we are in a completely different economic and monetary cycle than overseas. Foreign capital accounts for only about 5%-8% of China's bond market, and domestic capital has absolute pricing power. Combined with our monetary policy, we insist that I am the main focus, and overseas shocks cannot reverse the overall trend of the domestic bond market. Looking ahead to the future market, industry insiders believe that the yield on overseas bonds is likely to remain high, the allocation value of RMB bonds is prominent, and the medium to long term may welcome a continuous increase in foreign capital allocation. However, it is also important to note that higher yields on US bonds have raised the return threshold for global allocated funds, and may disrupt the will of overseas institutions to increase their holdings of RMB bonds. Furthermore, the rapid rise in bond yields in overseas developed countries may also limit domestic risk asset valuations.

2h ago

Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

10h ago

Are Bitcoin's 80,000, 120,000, and 300,000 still far away?

Author: Debashree Patra Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow Original title: Bitcoin Sword Fingers at $80,000: Analysts Predict Breaking 120,000 Next Year and Shocking 300,000 in 2030 DeepWave Guide: Bitcoin rebounds strongly from around $63,000 to $75,401, completing a 5.8 times standard deviation increase within 48 hours, driving analyst Pierre Rochard to reaffirm his bullish roadmap — hitting $80,000 in 2026 and breaking through $120,000 next year. The sword in 2030 is $300,000. In the short term, bear liquidation and downtrend line breakouts provide momentum, but whether the leverage-driven surge can be turned into continued spot demand will determine whether the larger goal is realistic. Pierre Rochard's $80,000-$300,000 roadmap analyst Pierre Rochard (BitcoinPierre) expects Bitcoin to close around $80,000 in 2026. He believes that Bitcoin is not ready for a “parabolic rise,” but it is expected to break through $120,000 next year. In the longer term, he predicted that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2030. The key variables in this forecast are the Federal Reserve and the broader macro environment. Rochard believes that if the economy is weak enough to allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates without reigniting inflation, Bitcoin will benefit from improved liquidity. He also pointed out that artificial intelligence (AI) may improve macroeconomic prospects by increasing productivity and reducing inflation. In that situation, interest rate cuts will create a more favorable environment for risky assets such as Bitcoin. The $80,000 target refocused on Bitcoin's latest price trend has shown signs of regaining momentum. BTC climbed from around $63,000 to $75401 in less than 48 hours. Previously, buyers successfully defended in the $63,000 area. Notably, Bitcoin formed higher highs and higher lows. This round of rebound was partly fueled by large-scale short liquidations. According to reports, as Bitcoin and Ethereum soared, around $14 billion to $17 billion of short crypto positions were liquidated, removing bearish leverage. Glassnode indicated an unusual pattern of this fluctuation. They said that Bitcoin's jump from around $75,401 was a 5.8 times standard deviation (5.8 sigma) of its 30-day volatility — the biggest upward move since October 2023. The last time Bitcoin closed at such a large daily rate was in February, which was only a rebound after a sharp drop of -14% the day before. And there's no crash to bounce back this time around — this is a 5.8 times standard deviation fluctuation compared to its own 30-day volatility, the biggest upward move since October 2023. — Glassnode (@glassnode) However, liquidation alone does not confirm the existence of sustainable spot demand. On-chain analyst Onchain Insights said that Bitcoin has broken through the annual downward trend line resistance and recovered to the $70,000 range. If it continues to close above this structural resistance, it may indicate a weakening of selling pressure and further upward momentum. Another analyst also said that short positions have limited resistance until $80,000, making it an important near-term target. The BTC giant whale sells for $74,000 and $80,000. The gap between these resistances is very large. ——CW (@CW8900) On Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin will hit $80,000 in August rose to 13%, up 9 percentage points within 6 hours. BTC would need to rise about 14% more from $71,000 to reach $80,000. Can the $120,000 be recovered? Rochard expects Bitcoin to easily break through $120,000 next year if the macro environment turns favorable. His long-term goal of $300,000 by 2030 reflects broader bullish arguments around liquidity, supply, and adoption. His opinion was also supported by SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci, who expected Bitcoin to surpass $100,000. He cites the halving cycle and new supply...

1d ago深潮TechFlow#Bitcoin

Analysis: Bitcoin hits the $80,000 mark, ETF capital inflows and macro-liquidity are key variables

Comparing news, Bitcoin rose to its highest level since May before the US market on Friday. After hitting $79,400 in the intraday period, it hovered around $78,000, just one step away from the $80,000 key resistance level. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, and market risk appetite was boosted. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said that this round of growth is mainly driven by macro factors, not the crypto market's own factors, and Bitcoin is still highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and actual yield. Earlier, US inflation data fell short of expectations and employment data weakened. In addition, the US Treasury announced measures to reduce long-term treasury yields, driving up risk assets. Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is currently an important dividing line for Bitcoin. To achieve an effective breakthrough, the market needs to further confirm that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting towards easing. Relevant signals may be released at the Jackson Hole meeting next week. However, he also warned that if inflation continues to be high or the dollar weakens, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Furthermore, the scale of increase in holdings of large holders is still limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support continued breakthroughs. Subsequent US spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows and macro-data performance will be key indicators for judging market continuity. (CoinDesk) This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking

Bank of America: If the US long-term bond repurchase program fails, risk assets will be under pressure

Comparing news, Bank of America strategist Hartnett said that if the US Treasury's plan to control long-term treasury yields fails, the US dollar will be under pressure and may trigger short bets on risky assets before the November midterm elections. If Treasury Secretary Bezent is unable to lower the 30-year yield below 5%, the dollar is expected to fall, and risky assets such as financial stocks and AI hyperscale companies face the risk of shorting.

1d ago

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: FOMC minutes are hawkish, and the market focuses on high interest rates for longer

Comparing news, Lewis Huang, chief analyst of Bitget CFD, said in a live broadcast yesterday that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting overall sent an eagle signal. Despite keeping interest rates unchanged at this meeting, many officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to fall back to the 2% target, further policy tightening or even raising interest rates again is still a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term, but should re-evaluate the impact of “maintaining high interest rates for longer” on the US dollar, US bond yields, gold, and US stock valuations. Lewis Huang pointed out that the future direction of the market will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rises and the job market remains resilient, US dollar and US bond yields may strengthen, and highly valued assets such as gold and Nasdaq 100 may be under pressure; conversely, if inflation cools down significantly and employment and consumption weaken at the same time, the market will once again raise the Fed's easing expectations, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to be supported. He recommended that CFD traders focus on the trend of US two-year treasury bond yields, the US dollar index and gold, wait for price breakouts and retracement confirmation after major data is released, avoid chasing the first wave of fluctuations, and strictly control leverage and stop-loss risks.

1d ago

Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to hit $180,000, and US bond buybacks may become a new catalyst

Comparing news, macro strategist Mark Connors said that the US Treasury plans to regularly repurchase long-term treasury bonds, which could be an important catalyst for Bitcoin's next rise and create conditions for BTC to reach its $180,000 target. Connors believes that the US Treasury's involvement in the bond market is an important sign that the government is coping with the pressure of rising long-term borrowing costs. He said that higher US bond yields will attract capital flows to the treasury bond market, thereby weakening capital inflows from risky assets, including cryptocurrencies; if repurchase operations support bond prices and reduce yields, it may ease the macroeconomic pressure faced by Bitcoin. It is estimated that in the future, the amount of US Treasury support may expand to $10 billion to $30 billion per month, far higher than the current amount of $4 billion. Connors previously anticipated that Bitcoin might wait until around November to usher in the next phase of its rise, but currently he believes that the pace of the market may be ahead of schedule. He said that if the US further adjusts supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules to allow banks to hold more US Treasury bonds, it may become an important factor driving Bitcoin's breakthrough. “When this change happens, Bitcoin will begin looking for its first target price of $180,000.” Connors display. He anticipates that the Bitcoin price range from the current cycle to 2030 could reach $180,000 to $360,000.

2d agoWendy#Market topics #starters

Bitcoin's rebound may just be a blood sacrifice for bears after bursting $1.1 billion overnight

Author: Shenchao TechFlow Original title: BTC's largest single-day short liquidation in history: $1.1 billion of short funds evaporated overnight, but shouting back is too early for every escape from death, requiring empty sacrifices. Bitcoin's intraday volume skyrocketed last night, once approaching the $70,000 mark. While the investment community is full of buoyancy, what you might not know is that last night was the largest single-day short liquidation in crypto history. The network's single-day bears rallied over 1.1 billion US dollars, breaking historical records in a fractured manner. The $1.1 billion bears were tightened overnight, breaking the crypto history record. On the night of August 19, BTC started around $64,000 and rose about 7% in an hour, reaching an intraday high of $69,970, just one step away from the 70,000 mark. This is the highest price since early June and the biggest one-day increase since March. The sharp rise was accompanied by blood washing in the contract market. According to public contract data, the entire network closed out about US$1,345 million in the past 24 hours, involving 105,000 traders, of which short orders were about US$1,191 million, and the long ones were only 153 million. In the most intense hour, the entire network sold out $1,194 million, with bears accounting for 93.5%. By currency type, Bitcoin contract bears were liquidated by about $662 million in 24 hours, while Ethereum bears were about $366 million. Leveraged positions that bet on falling were uprooted almost at the same time. Several whale positions on Hyperliquid totaling nearly $200 million (large highly leveraged companies) have also been completely liquidated. The liquidation itself will speed up the market. A strong bearish position means being forced to buy back up. The higher the price, the more explosive the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the higher the price, forming a self-reinforcing feedback loop. At the same time, judging from multiple data sources, this is the largest Bitcoin shorting settlement in a single day. The White House summit was only the trigger; the catalyst came from the bond market attributing the surge to the combined benefits of the two. One is the message side. On August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives such as Coinbase, Kraken's parent company Payward, and Blockchain.com at the White House, and the market's optimism about the shift in regulation heats up. The other one is lower level. On the same day, the US Treasury Department announced a direct doubling of the liquidity support for long-term treasury bond repurchases, raising the upper limit of a single operation from 2 billion US dollars to at least 4 billion US dollars, effective September 9. In the crypto community's view, this is a more tangible sign than the summit: macro liquidity is loosening in the direction of risky assets. The data also confirms institutional buying. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $297.6 million on Monday and another $189 million on Tuesday; funding rates have risen to a 20-month high. The bulls are crowded, and the bears are even more crowded. Once the price starts, a strong pedal will automatically be relayed. The last big bear liquidation dates back to 5.19, and old chives must remember “5.19” in May 2021: China clearly prohibited financial institutions and payment institutions from carrying out virtual currency-related business. Amidst the panic, Bitcoin hit more than 40,000 US dollars to around 30,000 US dollars in one day, and the entire network closed out about 7 billion US dollars in 24 hours, setting a historical record at the time. The 5.19 collapse liquidated bulls, and about $7.56 billion in long leveraged positions were instantly washed away. However, over the next few days, in the midst of panic, a large number of traders frantically leveraged at the bottom to chase the sky. As a result, there was an extremely violent retaliatory backlash. According to K33 Research quoting Coinglass data, short positions of approximately $757 million in a single day were instantly washed away, making it the largest day for BTC perpetual short settlements in history. And that record was broken just yesterday. After the liquidation of top bears, the market is often polished for a few weeks, and the liquidation of top bears is often a sign that the mid-term phased bottom has been completely consolidated. Positions are cleared after deleveraging, and macro-liquidity is transferred to encryption, and it takes weeks of cold washing and energy in the middle. Will this time be the same? Bitcoin is currently around $69,200, and the 24-hour increase narrowed to 7.6% (as of the morning of August 20). Sentiment indicators are still hesitating: the fear and greed index is 46, which is still in the fear zone; the probability that Bitcoin will reach 70,000 this month on the Polymarket has jumped to about 70% from before the surge. Axel Rudolph, IG's chief technical analyst, observes: Bitcoin is moving towards $70,000, driven by bears' recovery, indicating that buyers are...

2d agoburnking#Bitcoin

Is “Cow Lai” really here? Bitcoin skyrocketed, and $2,743 billion bears were brutally liquidated

Source: PanNews Author: Nancy Original title: Is “Cow Coming” Really Here? Bitcoin changed overnight, and bears hit the main points of the biggest liquidation day in history: Bitcoin rebounded strongly on August 19, with an intraday increase of more than 7.4%, once approaching 70,000 US dollars, a new high since the beginning of June; Ethereum simultaneously broke through 2,300 US dollars. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network closed out more than 2,986 billion US dollars, of which short liquidations reached 2,743 billion US dollars, setting a new record for short liquidation in a single day. The recovery in the market was driven by multiple factors: the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases to improve liquidity; the SEC proposed new crypto asset issuance rules to exempt some registration requirements; and Trump met with crypto business executives and made supporting remarks, urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act. Furthermore, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded US$480 million in the past two days, causing large-scale short liquidation effects. On-chain data shows that spot demand is about to improve, with a median increase of about 18.1% over the next 60 days. However, Glassnode pointed out that high real interest rates are still a suppressing factor, the market is still bottoming out, and the capitulation is not completely over. VanEck believes that 8 of the 12 capitulation indicators have been triggered, but this is not a sign of bottoming out. The potential cumulative window may be from September to November. Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to rise to 100,000 US dollars by the end of 2026. If it effectively breaks through $65,500, it may confirm the low in the cycle. CEO Strive believes that the long-term downward trend in the US dollar may bring the strongest macro tailwind to Bitcoin. Overall, there are positive signs in the market, but continued strengthening still requires verification of demand, liquidity, and macro environment, and investors should maintain reasonable positions. While the movie “Cow Lai” continues to be popular, the market's expectations for a “return to the bull market” are also constantly being ignited. Coincidentally, the crypto market also suddenly ushered in a long-lost “bull attack”. Bitcoin's strong counterattack overnight led to a collective recovery of the market. For the crypto market, which has been dormant for a long time, this surge not only means a breakthrough in price, but also a return to market volatility. After the market heated up rapidly, market sentiment was instantly ignited, and coin industry players even ridiculed that “native families are finally getting better.” Meanwhile, this sudden strong rebound also simultaneously triggered a single-day liquidation wave of bears on an astonishing scale. Bitcoin fought back strongly. On the evening of August 19, the bears experienced the biggest wave of liquidation in history. On the evening of August 19, Bitcoin broke out of a long-lost positive line and strongly broke through the consolidation range that continued for several months. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin suddenly experienced a strong rebound, with an intraday increase of more than 7.4%, once approaching 70,000 US dollars, a new high since the beginning of June. Ethereum strengthened at the same time. At one point, the price broke through 2,300 US dollars, reaching a new high of nearly three months. Mainstream assets rose collectively, rapidly driving the overall recovery of the crypto market. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalization has risen by around 7.5%, recovering to around $2.46 trillion. However, this sudden surge also turned into a large-scale bear slaughter. According to CoinGlass data, the total amount of online liquidations in the past 24 hours has exceeded 2,986 billion US dollars, and more than 175,000 traders have been forced to close their positions. Among them, the biggest single liquidation occurred in the BTC-USD contract on the Hyperliquid platform, which amounted to about US$48.8 million. Judging from the historical scale, this wave of liquidations has surpassed the single-day liquidation record of about 2.23 billion US dollars during the “tariff shock” in February 2025, ranking the eighth largest liquidation event in crypto history. What is more noteworthy is that this liquidation almost showed a one-sided pattern of bears squeezing. According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours, the amount of short liquidation reached US$2,743 million, far exceeding the liquidation scale of about US$243 million for longs. This figure even surpassed the scale of short liquidations of about 2.46 billion US dollars on the largest settlement date in history on October 10, 2025, setting a new record for the scale of short liquidations in a single day in the crypto market. The crypto market welcomed multiple benefits. Trump's bullish remarks ignited optimism behind the collective reversal of the crypto market's decline, mainly driven by multiple factors such as improved macro liquidity, bearish shortfall, regulatory optimism, and the return of ETF funds. At the macro level, the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases, which became the core trigger for this round of market recovery. The Ministry of Finance announced that it will double the maximum limit of liquidity support repurchases of 10-year to 30-year treasury bonds from at least US$2 billion to US$4 billion. The measures will be implemented on September 9 and will continue until November 4. The market generally interpreted this as strong support for the liquidity of the treasury bond market, which effectively lowered long-term yields. The yield on 30-year treasury bonds declined markedly from a high level of about 5.33% to 5.34%. And the decline in US bond yields...

2d ago22#Blood washes empty heads

US cryptocurrency concept stocks collectively skyrocketed, Strategy rose nearly 12%, and Coinbase rose 9%

Comparatively, as Bitcoin approached $70,000, crypto-related stocks saw their biggest one-day gain since summer on Wednesday, with Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and BitMine (BMNR) all rising sharply. Among them, Bitcoin reserve company Strategy shares rose 11.95% to $103.58, up more than 13% during the intraday period; crypto trading platform Coinbase rose 9.05% to $159.47; stablecoin issuer Circle rose 9.44% to $78.50; and Ethereum reserve company BitMine rose 9.68% to $20.05. This rise was mainly driven by Bitcoin's short-term shortening. As Bitcoin hit $70,000, a large number of bearish positions were forced to close, and the crypto market saw nearly $2 billion liquidation in the past 24 hours. At the same time, the US Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases, and market liquidity expectations have improved, driving a general rise in risky assets. Stocks such as Strategy and Coinbase are also affected by short compensation. Both companies previously held high short positions on Wall Street. With the rapid rebound in stock prices, some shorting investors were forced to buy and close their positions, further amplifying the increase. Strategy currently holds about 840,000 bitcoins, and its stock price trend is highly related to the BTC price; BitMine holds about 5.82 million ETH, making it one of the listed companies closest to pure exposure to Ethereum in the market. However, despite this significant rebound, Strategy, Coinbase, and BitMine continued to decline during the year. The market is still watching to see if Bitcoin can break through and stabilize the resistance level around $70,000 to determine whether this rise is a trend reversal or short-term bears are squeezing the market.

2d ago