PCE · 509

Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

10h ago

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: FOMC minutes are hawkish, and the market focuses on high interest rates for longer

Comparing news, Lewis Huang, chief analyst of Bitget CFD, said in a live broadcast yesterday that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting overall sent an eagle signal. Despite keeping interest rates unchanged at this meeting, many officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to fall back to the 2% target, further policy tightening or even raising interest rates again is still a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term, but should re-evaluate the impact of “maintaining high interest rates for longer” on the US dollar, US bond yields, gold, and US stock valuations. Lewis Huang pointed out that the future direction of the market will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rises and the job market remains resilient, US dollar and US bond yields may strengthen, and highly valued assets such as gold and Nasdaq 100 may be under pressure; conversely, if inflation cools down significantly and employment and consumption weaken at the same time, the market will once again raise the Fed's easing expectations, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to be supported. He recommended that CFD traders focus on the trend of US two-year treasury bond yields, the US dollar index and gold, wait for price breakouts and retracement confirmation after major data is released, avoid chasing the first wave of fluctuations, and strictly control leverage and stop-loss risks.

1d ago

Goldman Sachs: The price of the September rate hike was hawkish, and the pressure on US stocks came from repeated interest rate expectations

Comparing news, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius believes in the latest opinion that the market's pricing of the September FOMC rate hike is still hawkish. The bank determined that unless there is a clear reversal in the August data released in early September, the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September 15-16 meeting is already very low. The reasons given by Goldman Sachs include: employment growth is clearly slowing down, consumption momentum is cooling down, and the inflation trend is more likely to continue improving. From Goldman Sachs's perspective, recent data is weakening the reasons for interest rate hikes. Potential employment growth in the US in July is said to be only about 5,000 people, lower than the level needed to maintain the balance of the labor market; weak retail sales mean that consumption growth may slow to 1% to 1.5% in the second half of the year; core PCE inflation is still expected to gradually decline and approach the 2% target in 2027. Hatzius believes that after two consecutive months of weak employment and inflation data, the threshold for dovish commissioners to switch to supporting interest rate hikes will be high. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting brought new disturbances to the market. The minutes of the July meeting released in the early morning of August 20, Beijing time showed that the number of officials supporting further tightening of the policy increased compared to June. Many officials believe that if inflation does not continue to cool down, higher interest rates may still be needed in the future. This makes it difficult for the market to directly bet on Goldman Sachs's interpretation of easing, and short-term interest rates and technology stock valuations will continue to be repeatedly affected by policy expectations.

2d ago

Goldman Sachs expects core PCE of 0.23%, slightly above core CPI and market consensus

Comparatively, after the CPI data, the market focus turned to the July core PCE data released on August 26. Goldman Sachs expects core PCE to rise 0.23% month-on-month in July, slightly higher than core CPI and market consensus. Among them, portfolio management fees are expected to increase by 8 basis points, reflecting second-quarter stock market earnings. Goldman Sachs said upcoming methodological changes could cause PCE readings to fluctuate and reduce the annual core inflation rate. The bank expects core inflation to be close to 0.2% in August and believes that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates stable until the end of the year.

10d ago

Goldman Sachs: The July CPI is expected to be slightly lower than expected, but the rebound in oil prices will make it difficult for the market to fully relax

According to comparative news, the Goldman Sachs economic team expects the core CPI to rise 0.19% month-on-month in July, slightly lower than the market consensus 0.2%; the year-on-year growth rate will be 2.47%, which is also lower than the 2.5% consensus forecast. In terms of nominal CPI, Goldman Sachs expects a month-on-month increase of only 0.05%, lower than market expectations of 0.1%, which mainly reflects the impact of the previous decline in energy prices. However, the risk of inflation has not completely disappeared. Goldman Sachs said that this forecast corresponds to a 0.26% month-on-month increase in core PCE in July, and portfolio management and other categories may contribute significantly to the increase. Looking ahead to the next few months, the bank expects the monthly increase in core CPI to be around 0.2%, housing inflation will continue to slow down, the contribution of tariff-related price increases will decline, and the pressure on aviation fuel prices that previously boosted airline ticket prices will fall. The US CPI for July will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12. The market is waiting for this data to provide the next direction for US bond yields and technology stock rotation. Before the CPI was announced, the 10-year US Treasury yield had returned to around 4.70%, and oil prices had returned above $87. Goldman Sachs warned that if oil market disturbances and rising oil prices continue to exceed expectations, the risk of inflation will be biased upward.

11d ago

HTX DeepThink: In addition to policy interest rates, long-term yields are becoming a key constraint on Crypto valuations

Comparing news, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe's analysis pointed out that the current core conflict in the macro market has shifted from “when will the Fed cut interest rates” to “whether the Fed needs to raise interest rates again.” Warsh tried to reduce the impact of monthly data on policy, but since its policy framework was not fully understood by the market, the July and August inflation data instead became a key variable in determining policy expectations for September. If the core CPI remains at or below 0.2%, the market will re-trade, inflation will fall back and policy will be suspended; if it continues to be higher than expected, the Federal Reserve will face a “rate hike or loss of credibility”. As far as risk assets are concerned, we really need to pay attention not only to federal funds interest rates, but to long-term US bond yields. The “short-term decline and long-term rise” that appeared after the July meeting meant that the market began to take into account the higher risk of long-term inflation and the Federal Reserve's credit premium. If 30-year US Treasury yields continue to rise, financial conditions will naturally tighten even if the Federal Reserve remains on hold, and highly valued, liquidity-dependent technology stocks and Crypto will all be suppressed. For Crypto, the coming month is more likely to be volatile than a one-sided market. If the CPI is moderate, US bond yields fall, and the dollar weakens, BTC may take the lead in benefiting and driving high-beta altcoins to rebound; if inflation accelerates again, the market will reprice the probability of interest rate hikes in September, long-term interest rates may break through again, and Crypto is prone to deleveraging and rapid decline. Therefore, what is currently worth paying more attention to is not betting on “interest rate hikes or not,” but rather the evolution of the three sets of signals: whether core CPI and PCE have rebounded continuously, whether 30-year US Treasury yields have broken through previous highs, and whether BTC can maintain its relative strength under the macroeconomic downturn. If inflation is high and BTC does not fall, it indicates that Crypto's internal capital is forming an independent trend; conversely, if BTC falls below key support while yields rise, we need to be wary of the possibility of a new round of liquidity contraction. Note: The content of this article is not an investment opinion, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation of offers or suggestions for any investment products.

11d ago

Daikodo Keisen vs. “Bullish Hedge” |0805 Global

Note: The big bears once again reminded the stock market to look at its peak. We also determined that the “short-term” bulls have increased their offshore positions, which indicates that the short-term tactic “large-scale counterattack” is about to begin. “Force majeure”: In any case, the text section will be abbreviated/distorted as much as possible, and the core views, data, conclusions, or displayed in the corresponding gallery, or unlocked separately after necessary KYC (Know Your Customer) is required. Other than those listed in the Research Gallery, the rest of the time stamps are between UTC+8202608050400-1020. “Research Methods and Strategic Attributes” adjustment explanation: Based on all current major changes in major variables [financial reports, land prices, energy, EI Nino, interest rates, QT, bonds, etc.], the strategy group research focus, standard strategy, transaction structure, and Portfolios will be updated in depth. The importance ranking is “technology, disaster mitigation, war selection, geography, energy”, and will be based on the “globality” of offshore strategies, based on the “global nature” across time zones, markets, events, and types. Preventing conflicts of interest [Strictly follow the strategic separation wall, silence period, and crossing the separation wall system]. [Betting on China from a global perspective] | [Discovering value every hour] ——————Below is the text————◎ Japanese yen※The interest rate hike came to an abrupt halt, and the central bank's deposit rate. Pull the yen back from a 40-year low of 163 back to the previous long-term average of around 155. Destroy a group of Mrs. Watanabe who had gone short. ※Currently, the yen is still unsettled, and the trend of interest rate hikes is still strong due to prices, etc. ◎ Technology※SPCX earnings report exceeded expectations. Funding for technology has brought confidence and fresh water to the market. While driving the Dow and S&P 500 to break through historical extremes, it gave a strong impetus to both NASDAQ and COPH. ※At the close of the US stock market, major Chinese financial companies have already listed SPCX's financial highlights, mainly revenue exceeding expectations, user growth, successful trial launches in the short term, and large government orders. Strategy Group Assessment. Other than these, there are 2 possible weights that have been underestimated. One was a test flight of a starship in the Indian Ocean, and the landing at the ocean was assessed by Chinese self-media as a failure at the time. The truth is not true. Book a plan. All were completed, and no “chopsticks holder” facility was installed, which proved the convenience of its global deployment. Second, SpaceX announced that it plans to implement manned starship flight/recycling by the end of 2027. ◎ semiconductor※ policy amendments. The Korean police have filed a criminal lawsuit against the head of the government who launched a single-stock ETF product to appease shareholders. A group of shareholders filed a lawsuit against Samsung Hynix executives for loss of trust, and the police filed a lawsuit. ※The ban on optical modules has some effects. ※The bears are slowing down and turning. The effects of leverage have been evident, and the intentions and frequency of shareholders' transactions in the Korean stock market have all reached record lows. Currently, the cost of shorting has risen sharply, and there are both moral and legal risks, and the benefits have declined markedly. ◎ Geopolitical, TACO PLUS※I understand that Wang shrunk all his resources and attention to survival in the mid-term elections. It reduces sensitivity to stimulants of a sharp rise in crude oil in terms of both policy and military action. ※Fuel prices have plummeted continuously due to the Takagake Free Battle Pass. Currently, all major products have reached less than 80 yuan. ※Saudi oil tankers have tried to explore the Red Sea (the Houthis have all hit Egyptian ports, and it is possible that the Suez Canal will also be blocked; in fact, it is still a spillover of war between Iran and proxy wars). Freight costs and premiums have been calculated in the price of oil products, but this has not stopped crude oil from plummeting. ◎ US bonds, dollar tide, cash flow, liquidity, interest rates. ※The market is extremely prosperous. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit record highs, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Circuitry held steady mid-track and rebounded strongly. ※Since the end of July and the beginning of August, the Hengke Index has lost its appeal to technology funding and has also lost its high degree of linkage with the NASDAQ. Even with sufficient liquidity, the technology sector in the Asia Pacific period mainly flows in other major markets. However, several days of continuous recovery and sharp rise may create some room for arbitrage between the Japan-Korea Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the Hang Seng Index (showing signs of a southward trend). Focus on Hengke's expression in the latter half of Japan. ※The contradiction between US debt avoidance and the prosperity of the stock market. In the overnight market, US 10-year Treasury yields plummeted and fell sharply by more than one point. Since the US stock market index continued to break through previous highs, the strategy group determined that the bulls were holding back the rapid depreciation of the yen, to prevent the yen from continuing to plummet after interest rate hikes, and at a time when the stock market rose rapidly, the “downside risk protection,” which the bulls progressed, carried out a “hedging arrangement” for overall fund positions. ※ VIX Panic Index. As the S&P 500 continues to break new highs, the ViX panic index bucked the trend. Like the yield on 10-year government bonds, it is a conflicting indicator. Expression, but VI...

17d agoburnking#Blue Chain Think Tank

Hawkish Federal Reserve officials are hawking eagles one after another: Schmid says interest rates are still not high enough, Paulson warns that the risk of inflation has not been eliminated

Comparing news, concerns about the risk of inflation are heating up within the Federal Reserve. Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman Jeffrey Schmid and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Anna Paulson have successively sent hawkish signals, suggesting that if inflation continues to be high, monetary policy may need to be further tightened in the future. Schmid said that the current monetary policy stance is not restrictive. Against the backdrop of strong demand and the expansion of corporate investment, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt a tighter policy in order to push inflation back to the 2% target. Schmid warned that the market should not simply assume that the price pressure caused by the supply shock will quickly subside. He said he is concerned about the assumption that the surge in inflation is only a temporary phenomenon. The duration of inflation will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy response and the market's expectations for future policies. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Paulson also said that the future interest rate path will depend on core inflation trends, and said that he remains open to policy adjustments. Paulson pointed out that if core inflation continues to improve and long-term inflation expectations are stable, the current interest rate level may be sufficient to limit economic growth; however, if core inflation continues to run at a high level, it means that more austerity policies are needed. She said that recently, core inflation in the US has only declined moderately, and is currently still in the range of about 2.4% to 2.8%. Long-term high core inflation is still an important factor in evaluating policies. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, but 3 policymakers voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, believing that early action would help avoid more aggressive austerity in the future. Recent data showed that the US core PCE inflation in June fell short of expectations, and consumer spending performance was strong. Paulson said that improving inflation data is a step in the right direction, but progress is still limited. Officials are also concerned about potential inflationary pressure from the Middle East conflict and investment in AI infrastructure. Paulson said that while AI infrastructure construction boosts economic growth, it may also push up prices in some areas.

17d ago

Bitunix Analyst: Cooling Inflation Data Isn't Changing the Real Source of Pressure on Global Assets

Comparatively, the monthly PCE rate in the US unexpectedly turned negative in June, the monthly increase in core PCE was only 0.1%, and the annualized GDP growth fell short of market expectations, which seemed to provide evidence of cooling inflation and economic slowdown. However, if the GDP structure is dismantled, private final demand, consumption, and investment in AI-related enterprises remained strong, indicating that economic momentum did not deteriorate significantly. This also explains why the market is not fully betting on easing due to weakening data, but instead focuses on policy credibility and global capital costs. What is more noteworthy is that the Japanese government is suspected of cooperating with the US side in exchange rate intervention, and South Korea is simultaneously announcing US dollar sales intervention. Although the Bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged, there are still members advocating interest rate hikes. The Bank of England also has three members supporting interest rate hikes, showing that central banks are still cautious or even hawkish in the face of inflation and exchange rate pressure. This means that the global liquidity environment has not fundamentally changed due to the cooling of US inflation data in a single month, but that financial conditions have been maintained through various forms of tightening. On the other hand, the fundamentals of the technology industry remain stable. Amazon's AWS revenue is better than expected, Oracle continues to expand cooperation with Google, and OpenAI once again lowered model prices. AI competition has gradually extended from model capabilities to cost efficiency and enterprise application penetration. In contrast, Apple's weak performance in the Chinese market and service business indicates that terminal consumer demand is still divided, and the valuation differences between AI infrastructure beneficiaries and terminal hardware manufacturers may expand further in the future. Looking ahead to the future market, the market really needs to observe not only whether the US cuts or raises interest rates, but whether the world's major central banks simultaneously maintain a tight financial environment through interest rates, exchange rate intervention, and policy communication. If expectations of Japan's subsequent interest rate hikes continue to heat up and the Asian Central Bank continues to intervene in the foreign exchange market, global arbitrage capital flows and US dollar liquidity may continue to be adjusted, while AI investment and corporate profits will still be important fundamentals supporting risky assets. The tension between the two forces is expected to keep market fluctuations at a relatively high level in the third quarter.

22d ago

The US PCE fell month-on-month for the first time in four years in June, and market differences over the Fed's subsequent policy path intensified

According to comparative news, the US PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, the first month-on-month decline in four years, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to 3.7%; the core PCE rose 0.1% month-on-month to 3.3% year-on-year, all indicating that inflationary pressure has eased. In the same period, US personal consumption expenditure increased 0.3% month-on-month in June, personal income increased 0.2%, and the savings rate fell to 2.7%, hitting a four-year low. Despite a cooling in inflation, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the July meeting. The market is clearly divided on the next policy path: J.P. Morgan predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and believes that if inflation continues to heat up, a September rate hike is still possible; Goldman Sachs and Barclays are expected to remain on hold during the year, while Bank of America expects a cumulative total of three interest rate hikes starting in September, while Citi still maintains the expectation that interest rates will be cut continuously in October, December, and January 2027. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that market pricing will raise interest rates in September is currently 65.2%, which is down from before the announcement of interest rate negotiation results.

22d ago