Secure Digital Markets · 54

[Comparative to Daily Market News] LTH quietly left the market, and BTC fell below 93,000 US dollars under short-term pressure

On Monday, safe-haven assets fell under pressure, and US stocks rose moderately. As investors await PCE data and the Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes, and as the US Thanksgiving holiday approaches, market trading is light, and traders remain on the sidelines. By the close of the day, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq were up 0.30%, 0.99%, and 0.27%, respectively. Comparative data shows that Bitcoin experienced a severe setback. It fell from the 98,000 US dollar mark on the same day and fell below 93,000 US dollars at one point. The bears attacked fiercely. As of press release, the price of Bitcoin was reported at $93,235, plummeting nearly $5,000 within 24 hours, or nearly 5%. Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap is $3.27 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 57.3%. The strength of the bulls is weakening, and the LTH group is falling into the bag. Secure Digital Markets analysts warned in a report that Bitcoin's order book showed signs of caution. The purchasing power of the bulls is weakening, the strength of the bears is gradually increasing, and the depth of the market is gradually weakening. Over the weekend, the total liquidated positions of the long and short sides exceeded 500 million US dollars, highlighting the current high-risk environment in the market. The analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin's “biggest pain point” is at $78,000, which is far below the current price. This indicates an imbalance in the market and an adjustment is likely to occur in the coming weeks. Most put option positions reflect hedging requirements rather than pure bearish bets, which suggests traders are more managing risk than betting on a sharp decline. Additionally, Glassnode's tracking data revealed that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) are another culprit in the current sell-off, with monthly LTH sales reaching the highest level since April 2024, reaching 366,000 BTC. Analysts pointed out that the 6-month to 12-month LTH group was the main seller, and their average cost base was 71% lower than the market price (approximately $57,900). Short-term pressure, medium- to long-term bullish Although Bitcoin is facing some resistance in the short term, Bitfinex analysts said that due to the overheated situation in the past few weeks, the correction of the downward support level will be beneficial to the overall market structure. Compared with the historical peaks in March 2021 and March 2024, the current selling pressure is still within a manageable range. They said that these trends indicate a healthy and temporary consolidation of gains in the market, and the overall market may absorb selling pressure and continue to rise. The analyst added that altcoins are also showing signs of strengthening, and the Total3 index, which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), hit a new cyclical high, “fueled by high investor sentiment.” “Total3 rose 23.2% from trough to peak last week, the biggest increase since April 2021. Big altcoins such as Solana (SOL) hit record highs, marking a critical moment as they broke through key resistance levels, including the April 2022 high.” Bitfinex analysts reiterated that while BTC remains above $90,000, it is important to monitor daily ETF traffic. The slowdown in inflows indicates a lack of interest in the currently expensive spot Bitcoin, which may be a warning sign of a larger pullback. Analysts said, “In fact, we expect even a slightly sharp correction this week, especially when important macro events such as the release of US consumer price index data and the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released.” Technical Analyst @BobLoukas在X平台表示: “Bitcoin is currently on day 21 of the cycle. Normally, when the Bitcoin price falls back near the 10-day EMA, it is a good rebound point to continue the upward trend. Generally speaking, in the middle of the cycle (around day 30), Bitcoin will experience some weakness. Therefore, if there is no rebound this time, Bitcoin could fall to the $86,000-88,000 range within the next 7-10 days.” Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN比推 TG Community: https://t.me/BitPushCommunity比推 TG Subscriptions: Btok Subscriptions:... https://t.me/bitpush比推 https://btok360.com/bitpush

634d agoWendy#2023 market #PCE #altcoins #Bitcoin #Federal Reserve #Market #Long-term holders

[Comparative Daily Market News] Tesla's holding address changed, and BTC tested the resistance level of 68,000 US dollars

The crypto market rose on Tuesday, as almost all of Tesla's Bitcoin holdings were transferred after two years of silence. According to Arkham Intelligence data, at around 21:30 UTC on October 15, the address associated with Tesla transferred about 765 million US dollars worth of BTC (11,509 pieces) to multiple unknown wallets in batches. This appears to be the company's entire remaining Bitcoin reserves. As previously reported, in the first quarter of 2021, after Bitcoin rose to a high of close to $62,000, Tesla sold $272 million worth of bitcoin and made a profit of $128 million. The company also sold $936 million worth of bitcoin in the second quarter of 2022, bringing in $64 million in revenue. The purpose of the latest transfer is unclear. Some analysts believe Tesla may only be a strategic position adjustment, while some believe that these transfers may indicate potential sales or the reintroduction of Bitcoin as a payment method for its electric vehicles. According to BitcoinTreasury data, Tesla is the fourth largest Bitcoin holder among US listed companies. The top three are software company MicroStrategy, Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings, and Riot Platforms. Comparative data shows that in early Tuesday trading, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated upward and once soared to a high of $67,960, the highest value since July 29. A rapid decline to $64,787 followed, then climbed above $67,000 again after midday trading, and the next key resistance level was $68,000. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $66,760, a 24-hour increase of 0.68%. Most of the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization lost money that day. Storj (STORJ) led the way, up 22.1%, Scroll (SCR) up 13.7%, and Metis (METIS) up 9.9%. Saga (SAGA) saw the biggest drop, down 11.5%, Mog Coin (MOG) down 10.7%, and Sui (SUI) down 9.4%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.3 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's share is 57.5%. In terms of the US stock market, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices lost money for most of the trading day, falling 0.76%, 0.75%, and 1.01%, respectively, at the close of the session. Bitcoin's open positions are at record levels. Institutional investor-driven data shows that Bitcoin's open positions are at record levels. Market sentiment in Polymarket believes that Bitcoin's chance of reaching a new high in 2024 is 64%, an increase of 9% over last week. Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said that this is mainly driven by institutional investors. The weighted capital interest rate for open positions is currently at a multi-month high, reflecting a bullish outlook in the short to medium term. In addition, spot Bitcoin ETFs had a total inflow of US$8.1 billion in two trading days, with Fidelity and ARK having large inflows. At the same time, Ethereum ETH attracted $17 million in capital inflows yesterday, mainly contributed by BlackRock's products. J.P. Morgan analysts are bullish on Bitcoin's bullish momentum in the alternative investment outlook and strategy report released by J.P. Morgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. The analyst said, “In short, we are optimistic about digital assets in 2025,” and pointed to several factors driving their outlook, including the emergence of “devaluation transactions,” a trend where investors are turning to alternative asset classes (such as gold and bitcoin) to hedge against economic instability. Analysts pointed out that as geopolitical tension intensifies and the upcoming US election dominates news headlines, speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds may see gold and bitcoin as beneficiaries of this trend. Opinion polls show that Trump is increasingly likely to win the election, and analysts say depreciation deals are likely to strengthen further as tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies linked to geopolitical tensions (also known as debt depreciation) may further weaken the dollar. Other favorable factors include traditional wealth advisors such as Morgan Stanley allowing current recommendations to clients...

675d agoWendy#altcoins #J.P. Morgan Street #Bitcoin #Tesla #Musk

[Comparative to Daily Market News] A return to bull market sentiment? BTC's break above $6.5 million is the key

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points yesterday, loose monetary policy boosted market sentiment, and the US stock and crypto markets rose sharply. Comparative data shows that after the volatility caused by the initial rate cut subsided, Bitcoin bulls began to gain strength, and BTC pushed up from the $60,000 support level to an intraday high of $63,903, and fell back to $62,771 at press time, up 4.11% in 24 hours. Altcoins have seen impressive gains, with dozens of coins showing double-digit gains among the top 200 coins by market capitalization. Altlayer (ALT) led the rise, rising 42.1%, while Popcat (POPCAT) and Cat in a Dogs World (MEW) both increased 27.5%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.19 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's market share is 57.1%. At the close of the US stock market, the Dow initially closed up 1.2%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.7%, all of which reached record highs; the NASDAQ rose 2.5%. Star technology stocks generally rose. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 7%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 4%, and Apple (AAPL.O) rose 3.7%. Bullish sentiment returns, BTC's next key position: $65,000 Market analyst Bloodgood said in his weekly update: “In last week's report, I indicated that the Fed is about to enter a stable, slow, and orderly cycle of interest rate cuts, because the market believes it is very likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, yet when the meeting was finally held, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which was beyond most people's expectations. This seems like it should be better for the market — after all, we're cutting interest rates faster — but things aren't that simple.” “Normally, the expected process for the economy to perform well is to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to achieve a soft landing, because cutting interest rates too fast means that the Fed is worried about a recession. This is not a good sign. It can be said that the last two times the Fed began the cycle of cutting interest rates with 50 basis points was in 2001 and 2007.” “Despite this, Powell continues to repeat the term 'readjustment' in an attempt to emphasize that this is a 50 basis point deliberate adjustment rather than a panic move. Judging from market performance so far, the reaction seems mixed, even though very stable economic data has greatly dampened people's concerns about the recession.” Bloodgood said that Bitcoin bulls were able to “break through the critical weekly level without falling below the previous low of $49,000,” which could be “a sign that the trend is shifting from bearish to bullish.” The analyst said, “Time will tell, but I'm now expecting a higher price, which means a break above $65,000. If it breaks through, I expect more inflows, which could reach $70,000 within a few weeks. If $6.5 million is rejected, we might test $6 million again, and if we fail, there could be months of pain over the next few months.” TradingView analyst Arman Shaban also emphasized that $65,000 is a key level to watch for, and is leaning towards the bullish results proposed by Bloodgood based on Bitcoin's past performance. Shaban wrote, “By analyzing the Bitcoin chart over the weekly time frame, we can see that according to previous analysis, Bitcoin has not stabilized below $57,870, and demand is once again strong after a short-term wave of corrections. Demand increased further and successfully rose to $62,500 last night after the Federal Reserve announced a half-percent cut in interest rates. Now, we have to see if the price can break through $65,000 by the end of this week's candlestick chart. Bitcoin and other altcoins are likely to soon begin their main bullish wave, and Bitcoin's potential target for the medium term is $80,000”. Meanwhile, the previously bearish TradingView analyst Xanrox also turned bullish after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and believes that Bitcoin is likely to rebound to $130,000. Xanrox said, “Bitcoin has been trading sideways for over 6 months, but this should end. On the chart, we can see a bullish flag, and price action in recent days has greatly increased the bullish breakout...

701d agoWendy#2023 market #altcoins #Bitcoin #Bull market #Federal Reserve #Interest rate cut

[Comparative to Daily Market News] The Federal Reserve made a big turn and opened, and BTC rushed back

On Wednesday afternoon local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the benchmark interest rate would be lowered by 50 basis points to the 4.75% - 5.0% range, marking the beginning of the US monetary policy easing cycle. In addition to announcing the first rate cut in more than four years, the latest FOMC forecast shows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more in 2024, and most officials expect the central bank to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year. Interest rates are expected to fall further in 2025, to a value of 3.4%, and long-term interest rates will bottom out to 2.9%. This usually helps to stimulate the market, as traders tend to allocate risky assets in the face of a return to loose monetary policy. Bitcoin data shows that Bitcoin quickly pulled up and pulled back in the intraday period, soaring from the $60,000 support level to an intraday high of $61,357, then returning to support around $60,000. Bitcoin was trading at $60,231 at press time, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%. The altcoin market had mixed reactions. Among the top 200 coins, ZetaChain led the way, rising 20.6%, followed by Saga (SAGA) and Nervos Network (CKB), which rose 13.7% and 11%, respectively. KuCoin Token (KCS) led the decline, falling 6.1%, OriginTrail (TRAC) falling 5%, and Echelon Prime (PRIME) falling 4.3%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.09 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's market share is 57.2%. In traditional markets, US stocks rose and fell sharply after announcing interest rate cuts. By the close, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices all fell, falling 0.29%, 0.25%, and 0.31%, respectively. Spot gold surpassed $2,600 per ounce for the first time during Powell's press conference, then regained gains. At press time, it traded at $2,557.30 per ounce, down 0.46% on the same day. Volatility is expected to increase further, LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in a report: “The Federal Reserve met the needs of the market by cutting interest rates more drastically by 50 basis points. Now that the market has priced the easing policy to this extent, the next concern will be whether the market can continue to be optimistic about risk assets under the Fed's easing policy in the future.” From a technical perspective, Secure Digital Markets analysts noted that BTC's attempt to break through $61,000 failed on Tuesday, and the price retreated after Wall Street closed. The daily chart shows that the 100-day moving average showed a clear bearish rejection and continued to move low over the past month. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, also warned about the future of asset prices after the first interest rate cut in the Token 2049 keynote, saying that this could trigger a sharp drop in risky assets. He said, “I think the Fed's interest rate cut is a huge mistake because the US government is issuing and spending the most money in peacetime. Although I think many people expect interest rate cuts, which means they think the stock market and other things will increase chaos, I think the market will collapse a few days after the Fed cuts interest rates.” Although the liquidity easing cycle has historically been beneficial to BTC, Hayes warned that this move could increase inflationary pressure and push up the yen (JPY), leading to widespread risk aversion. He said, “Cutting interest rates now is a mistake because inflation is still a long-term problem in the US and is mainly driven by government spending. Cheaper borrowing will only fuel inflation.” He also said that potential interest rate cuts could cause the market to fall because it would “narrow the spread between the US dollar and the yen” (previously, in early August, when investors closed large amounts of arbitrage transactions based on yen caused a wave of collapse, and BTC once retraced below $50,000). Block Scholes founder and CEO Eamonn Gashier also warned about the impact of the newly announced interest rate cuts on the market and Japanese yen arbitrage transactions. Gashier said in a report: “Cutting interest rates by 50 basis points indicates that the Federal Reserve...

702d agoWendy#2023 market #altcoins #Bitcoin #Federal Reserve #Market #Interest rate cut #Risk assets #Powell

[Comparative Daily Market News] Expectations of 50 basis point interest rate cut ignite the market, and bulls strongly counterattack

On Friday, various asset classes rose across the board, and US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold rebounded one after another. At this point, there are less than six days left until the Federal Reserve's historic policy shift. The rise in the market is due in large part to investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve may announce a 50 basis point cut in interest rates after the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Bill Dudley, former governor of the New York Federal Reserve, said there were “good reasons” for further interest rate cuts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch tool currently shows a 49% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, up from 28% on Thursday. Comparative data shows that earlier in the day, BTC surged more than $1,500 in the short term, jumping from $58,000 to $59,700, rising above $69,000 after US stocks closed. At press time, BTC was trading at $60,280, up 4.24% in 24 hours. Like the general market, altcoins performed strongly this week, with over 90% of the top 200 coins rising. Among them, Nervous Network (CKB) led the way, up 45.3%, Pol (POL) rose 12.1%, and Popcat (POPCAT) rose 11.9%. Sun (SUN) saw the biggest drop, down 6.6%, while BinaryX (BNX) fell 5.4% and Worldcoin (WLD) fell 5.1%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.1 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's share is 56.4%. U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq up 0.54%, 0.72%, and 0.65%, respectively, by the close. Among them, the S&P 500 index and NASDAQ recorded their biggest weekly gains since November last year. Volatility is expected to increase further. Bitcoin finally ended its upward trend this week. Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said, “This price trend is consistent with the recent pattern of increased volatility in the low time frame, fluctuating within a six-month downward channel. If this trend continues, we can easily see BTC testing the $62,000-$64,000 range next week.” Regarding Ethereum, the analyst believes: “Ethereum (ETH) continues to perform poorly. As highlighted on the ETH/BTC chart, the daily chart shows that the bearish momentum of the ETH/BTC pair shows no signs of slowing down, indicating that it may be difficult to keep up with Bitcoin in the short term.” Although interest rate cuts are good news for risky assets, OKX Global Chief Commercial Officer Lennix Lai believes that asset prices are unlikely to “only rise” from now on, so traders should be prepared for continued fluctuations. Lai said, “Given the current market uncertainty, the market may be quite unstable for the rest of the month as traders react to broader economic indicators. Although short-term fluctuations are to be expected due to traders responding to economic indicators, increased institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market may provide more stability and liquidity in the medium to long term.” According to the Economist Impact Report commissioned by OKX, “69% of institutional investors plan to increase their allocation of digital assets over the next 2-3 years, which shows that confidence in the cryptocurrency market is growing despite short-term uncertainty.” Regarding the driving factors behind Bitcoin's recent price trend, Lai said, “It is largely influenced by expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts and speculation about a new cycle of interest rate cuts. These macroeconomic factors, combined with changes in investor sentiment, are driving market dynamics.” He pointed out, “Currently, the key support and resistance level for BTC is around $50,000. This area is critical for traders as it may determine the next direction of the BTC price movement. That being said, we're likely to see these levels change over the next few months as institutional engagement increases and mainstream adoption increases.” He said that the short-term outlook for BTC appears to be cautious, but he is optimistic about the long-term outlook. This is supported by various factors, including increasing institutional adoption and investment; major markets...

707d agoWendy#2023 market #Ethereum #altcoins #Bitcoin #Federal Reserve #Market #Interest rate cut

[Comparative to Daily Market News] The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, and BTC challenges the resistance level of 59,000 US dollars

On Thursday, new US inflation and labor data further supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next week, and financial asset prices are trending higher. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for August showed that wholesale prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly higher than economists' expectations, while rising 1.7% year over year, in line with expectations. Currently, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, but some traders still hope to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) US Federal Reserve Watch Tool (FedWatch Tool) suggests a 50 BP rate cut probability of 28%, up from 14% yesterday. The three major US stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq up 0.75%, 0.58%, and 1.00%, respectively. Spot gold surged 1.91% intraday to a record high of just under $2,560 an ounce. Comparative data showed that Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $58,000 in early Thursday trading, and after falling to a low of $57,310 in midday trading, the bulls successfully pushed the price back above $58,000 in the afternoon, challenging the $59,000 resistance level. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $58,217, a 24-hour increase of 1.53%. In the altcoin market, the top 200 tokens by market capitalization generally rose. The biggest increase was Worldcoin (WLD), which reached 14.6%; followed by Trust Wallet Token (TWT), which rose 14.3%; and Sui (SUI), which rose 13.9%. The biggest decline was GMT (GMT), which fell 6.2%; SuperVerse fell 5%; and ConstitutionDAO (PEOPLE) fell 4.3%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.05 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's market share is 56.3%. Expected volatile market analyst Bloodgood said that the CPI and PPI inflation data released this week is not much different from the forecast, and the Federal Reserve seems to be about to enter a fairly orderly cycle of interest rate cuts, which should be very beneficial to risky assets. Bloodgood notes that from a historical perspective, interest rate cuts “are often accompanied by some initial downward fluctuations, but considering the upcoming elections, this fluctuation should abate. Unless there are some truly unexpected economic developments, the macro outlook for the fourth quarter is still bullish from a fundamental standpoint.” Regarding Bitcoin, Bloodgood notes that since last week, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to around $50,000, but the bulls have stepped in to “save the situation” because this time “the pullback was not as fast as at the beginning of August, which indicates that the bears are exhausted.” Bloodgood concluded: “At the time of writing, BTC was below the breakout zone, a key point in the recent trend. Breaking through this level would quickly lead to higher levels, and falling below would make it very likely that $50,000 will be tested over the next few weeks. From TA's perspective, the structure is still bearish, so I'm not hopeful until the lower high is broken.” TradingView analyst TradingShot said that interest rate cuts will lead to an increase in the global money supply, which may be the factor driving the next round of Bitcoin's rise. TradingShot said, “As the Federal Reserve prepares to cut interest rates next week for the first time since starting the rate hike cycle in February 2022, it will be very exciting to see what the global money supply and more currencies in circulation mean for Bitcoin. ” In the image above, the light green and red candles (top) indicate the Global Liquidity Index (GLI), composed of the Federal Reserve, TGA, RRP, the European Central Bank, the People's Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and other central banks. The chart tracks and measures liquidity/money supply/currency in circulation in the global economy. TradingShot said, “When central banks cut interest rates, they are actually issuing more money and injecting large amounts of cash into the system, causing the currency in circulation to depreciate. When this happens, it's easier for businesses and/or individuals to get more capital, such as loans, which increases their ability to spend/buy/invest...

708d agoWendy#2023 market #altcoins #Bitcoin #Federal Reserve #Interest rate cut

[Comparative to Daily Market News] Non-agricultural data is making waves again, and derivatives data suggests “more room for downside”

Financial markets closed bleak in the first week of September. According to the non-farm payrolls report released on Friday, the US added 142,000 jobs in August, lower than economists' expectations of 160,000, but still higher than 89,000 after the July revision. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, in line with expectations, down from 4.3% in July. The report made traders begin to re-evaluate the extent to which the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, traders believe that at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on September 18, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points was over 70%, and the possibility of a larger rate cut (50 basis points) was close to 30%. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said in a speech on the same day that if data is needed, he supports continuous interest rate cuts, and if necessary, supports more drastic interest rate cuts. Some observers believe that cutting interest rates by a smaller margin would be more beneficial to risky assets, as cutting interest rates by 50 basis points may indicate that the Federal Reserve is increasingly worried about the US economy falling into recession. At the close of the day, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all declined, down 1.73%, 1.01%, and 2.55%, respectively. The NASDAQ recorded its worst week since June 2022, and the S&P Index recorded its worst week since March 2023. Comparative data shows that after the employment data was released, Bitcoin once soared to $57,000, then the bears pushed the price below $53,000, and once retraced to the lowest price since the yen arbitrage trade closed in early August. At press time, Bitcoin had recovered slightly to around $53,800, down 4.8% in 24 hours. Altcoins were hit hard. Among the top 200 tokens by market capitalization, only Sui (SUI) achieved a rise. Among the falling coins, ConstitutionDAO (PEOPLE) led the decline, falling 11.8%, Echelon Prime (PRIME) falling 9.5%, and Popcat falling 9%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 1.87 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's market share is 56%. Derivatives data suggests “more downside” New data from the cryptocurrency derivatives market suggests that traders' bearish sentiment is increasing, and options activity indicates that prices of mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to fall further. A new report released by crypto exchange Bybit in collaboration with analytics and research platform Block Scholes highlights a significant rise in the level of implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum options at different expiration dates. This surge is particularly evident in short-term options, indicating a recent increase in uncertainty. Nathan Thompson, Bybit's chief technical analyst, explained: “Implied slope, the difference in implied volatility between an off-price put option and a call option, can reveal the current market sentiment for BTC and ETH options. An increase in the implied volatility of a call option is a bullish indicator. The higher the implied volatility of a call option, the worse it is.” He added: “All the signs that have appeared in the options market so far suggest that there is more room for downside”. Thompson said that according to the overall trend observed in derivatives data, inexperienced traders are best left on hold until the market figures out the next trend. Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said, “The strong correlation between BTC and the stock market remains. Given current price trends and short-term economic prospects, many funds and traders may consider reducing risk and are likely to retest the low $50,000 range.” Keep an eye on ETF flows Spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen their worst outflow since May. According to Lookonchain data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had its biggest outflow since May 1, with a total net outflow of US$287.8 million on Tuesday. In terms of asset size, IBIT, a subsidiary of BlackRock, the largest Bitcoin ETF, had no significant capital inflows, while GBTC, a subsidiary of Grayscale, the second-largest Bitcoin ETF, had an outflow of $50.39 million. Fidelity's FBTC recorded the largest outflow of funds, reaching...

714d agoWendy#ETF #employment #altcoins #options #Bitcoin #Bull market #Federal Reserve #Market #derivatives #waning #inflationary #Interest rate cut #Non-agricultural

[Comparative Daily Market News] Concerns about the US recession have resurfaced, and it is difficult to find the direction of BTC

The “September curse” continues to haunt financial markets, and US stocks and crypto markets struggled on Wednesday. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics's job vacancies and labor mobility survey, the number of US job vacancies in July fell from 7.91 million after a downward revision last month to 7.67 million. This figure fell short of all economists' expectations. Job vacancies in July fell to their lowest level since early 2021, and layoffs increased, in line with signs of slowing demand for other workers. After the data was released, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FED WATCH tool showed that the market currently expects a 49% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18. Furthermore, the US 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve has turned positive for the second time since 2022, increasing investors' concerns about the US recession. In terms of US stocks, by the close of the day, the S&P index and the Nasdaq index were down 0.16% and 0.30%, respectively, while the Dow Jones index rose 0.09%. Comparative data shows that Bitcoin fell below the $56,000 support level in the early hours of Wednesday morning, hitting an intraday low of $55,567, before bulls pushed it back above $58,000. At press time, BTC was trading at $58,010, down 0.25% in 24 hours. The altcoin market showed mixed results. Among the top 200 tokens by market capitalization, 1inch Network (1INCH) led the increase by 21.6%, followed by Aave (AAVE) and GMT (GMT), which rose 11.9% and 11.6%, respectively. Sun (SUN) led the decline by 9.2%, Flux (FLUX) fell 8.5%, and Toncoin (TON) fell 7.4%. Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap is $2.03 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 56.5%. “Hard to find direction,” Secure Digital Markets analysts stated in the report: “Since last week, there has been a bullish divergence on the RSI, indicating that selling pressure may abate. Despite these short-term signals, long-term technical indicators are still unclear, and Bitcoin is still in the middle of a long-term downward channel with no clear direction.” Market analyst Bloodgood warned that this weakness could continue for some time and could cause Bitcoin to fall below $50,000. Bloodgood said in the latest market update: “Bitcoin's retracement continues. Last week we discussed that the accumulation zone seemed weak, and we saw a break at that level before the end of the week. A break below the accumulation zone may confirm our theory that a new low is likely. If that's the case, then $46,700 is right around the corner, and it might be wise to make some bids near this level. If the bulls manage to push Bitcoin back above the breakout zone around $59,000, this theory will fail.” In addition to the correlation between asset trends such as Bitcoin and technology stocks, Bloodgood said that the real driving force of the market remains the Federal Reserve. He pointed out that tech upstart Nvidia's recent pullback dominated the general market decline, and the crypto market is following this trend, but this will not change the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies. He added: “What is more important is how the Federal Reserve and Treasury will act to stabilize the stock market and keep bond yields at an acceptable level. In view of the upcoming elections, they will act as soon as possible. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates sooner than expected, which is why most people's main goal should be not to be scared away by volatility during this period”. Although investors are eagerly awaiting the first rate cut, crypto data analyst Brett reminded users on the X platform that historical data shows that interest rate cuts are often accompanied by a sharp drop in stock prices, and there is no reason to think this time will be different. He analyzed on Twitter: “We are still 15 days away from the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in this round. Using the same time frame, I have superimposed the following past cycle of interest rate cuts: 1981, 1990, 2000, and 2007. These four interest rate cut cycles match the data we have seen so far (rising unemployment, 10-year 2-year inversion, etc.). The opinion of the bulls is that interest rate cuts are suitable for the market. In the long run, this is true... But history shows that after interest rate cuts, the market will rise for an average of 25 days, and then experience an average of 13 months of sell-off.” Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNew...

716d agoWendy#2023 market #Bitcoin #Bull market #Technology stocks #Federal Reserve #US stocks #Nvidia #Market #waning #Interest rate cut

Bitcoin tests the $59,000 support level, and liquidity may be scarce or continue until September

On Friday, the July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index announced by the US was in line with economists' expectations, further strengthening investors' expectations for interest rate cuts at the September FOMC meeting. The financial market showed a slight fluctuation trend. Comparative data shows that after the inflation report was released, Bitcoin climbed to an intraday high of $59,945, then experienced a sharp correction, falling to an intraday low of $57,704, and the bulls then pushed it back above the $59,000 support level. At press time, BTC was trading at $59,036.66, a 24-hour decline of about 0.9%. Most altcoins were in the red this week, with Sun (SUN) continuing to lead the way, rising 13.9% on Friday, Beam (BEAM) rising 6.5%, and Just (JUST) rising 5.5%. Popcat (POPCAT) saw the biggest drop, falling 15.3%, followed by BinaryX (BNX) and Klaytn (KLAY), which fell 12.4% and 10%, respectively. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.07 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's market share is 56.2%. Bitcoin's average return in September was -4.78%. Bitcoin's price remained below the psychological threshold of $60,000 after falling more than 10.7% on the monthly chart. Analysts believe that in order to be profitable at the end of August, the monthly closing price of Bitcoin would need to be higher than $64,300. Currently, it seems that this may be difficult to achieve. Bitfinex analysts warned that the lack of summer liquidity may continue until September, making it difficult for Bitcoin to break through the $63,900 resistance level: “The price is a reflection of historical market transactions, and we must thoroughly understand it. BTC once rose to the realized price for short-term holders (around $63,900), so we've also seen some profit returns from the STH (short-term holder) group.” The analyst added that since 2013, Bitcoin's average return in September was -4.78%. Decline in trading volume Total Bitcoin trading volume on exchanges has been declining since the boom in spot ETF approvals surged and hit a record high. CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin's apparent demand metrics have “significantly slowed.” According to CryptoQuant, apparent demand is the difference between the total amount of daily Bitcoin block subsidies and the daily change in the amount of bitcoin that has remained stable for a year or more. The analyst stated: “Demand has declined from a 30-day increase of 496,000 BTC (the highest level since January 2021) to a negative increase of 36,000 to date. As demand slowed, the price dropped from around $70,000 to a low of $49,000.” In this week's The Week Onchain newsletter, Glassnode analysts concluded that Bitcoin's momentum is gradually weakening as the market has been in a “structurally ordered downward trend” for the past 5 months. Among other factors, analysts also pointed out that market interest in leveraged positions is waning, while the excitement sparked by the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF and BTC's all-time high above $73,000 is slowly fading away. The rest of the upward catalysts (such as participants' hope for Trump to win the election, the return of strong inflows to spot BTC and ETH ETFs, and the Federal Reserve's restart of quantitative easing) have yet to be realized or arrived. A Secure Digital Markets analyst stated in a report: “After showing bullish momentum last week, Bitcoin fell sharply below the $64,500 level at the beginning of this week. On Monday afternoon, the BTC price began to drop sharply by 10% due to significant selling pressure after the market failed to maintain the $64,000 support level. This decline indicates that the Bitcoin price may continue to fluctuate within the descending parallel channel shown on the daily chart.” “The BTC price is currently in the middle of this channel at $58,440, but if the selling pressure continues and $58,000 is tested again, the price could drop further to $54,000,” the analyst warned. Author: Bitbitp...

721d agoWendy#2023 market #Exchanges #altcoins #Bitcoin #mobility #Bull market #Market

[Comparative Daily Market News] BTC fluctuated within a narrow range, and the $64,000 support level was tested

The crypto market fluctuated in a narrow range on Monday. Comparative data shows that BTC once fell to the $63,000 support level on the same day, then rebounded slightly. At press time, it was trading at $63,139, down nearly 2% in 24 hours. Altcoins were lower overall, with only six of the top 200 tokens rising by more than 1% in market capitalization. OriginTrail (TRAC) had the biggest increase of 18.3%, followed by Akash Network (AKT), which rose 8.9%, and Helium (HNT), which rose 7.4%. Among the currencies that fell, DOGS dropped the most, falling 26.3%, Sun (SUN) falling 14.6%, and Cat in a Dogs World falling 13.3%. Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.21 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 56.5%. In terms of US stocks, the Dow Jones index was flat at the close, while the S&P index and the Nasdaq index fell 0.32% and 0.85%, respectively. Positive correlation with US stocks Since hitting a low of $49,053 on August 5, the price of Bitcoin has risen 30%, while US stocks have continued to climb to new highs. Bitfinex analysts said, “Bitcoin's rebound occurred against the backdrop of an increasing positive correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market. So far, since hitting a low in early August, Bitcoin has shown relative weakness compared to stocks. Friday's rebound drove a sharp rise in the correlation between the two, which we believe indicates a return to risk appetite in the market.” They pointed out, “Compared to less volatile assets (stocks in this case), it is common for more volatile assets to move late. The market clearly shows a risk appetite. This is encouraged by the imminent imminent rate cut and the lack of unresolved factors, as German law enforcement has fully distributed the seized bitcoins, while Mt. Gox's creditor allocations are also nearing completion.” On-chain data shows that there was also a large number of short liquidations on August 23. The settlement amount for BTC perpetual futures was 40 million US dollars, and the settlement amount for all trading pairs was 140 million US dollars. This was due to a sharp drop in open contracts, indicating a decrease in market leverage. Analysts speculated: “As interest in delta neutral and financing arbitrage transactions increases, the market's directional open positions decrease, which may provide more room for Bitcoin and altcoin prices to rise. The current funding rates are significantly lower than earlier this year, which also indicates changes in market dynamics. Despite the overall bullish sentiment, leveraged traders have taken a more cautious approach.” According to Secure Digital Markets analysts, BTC spot trading volume declined slightly after an initial surge, leading to a downward trend in Bitcoin's price on Monday. They pointed out, “The recent recovery in cryptocurrency prices has benefited from the strong expansion of stablecoins, with an average of $1 billion in new tokens being minted in seven days. Bitcoin's open positions are once again approaching the key resistance level of 180,000 to 190,000 contracts, a level that has historically been associated with sharp market fluctuations. A pullback to $62,000 could provide a strong buying opportunity for those looking to go long.” TradingView analyst TradingShot said that Bitcoin's sharp rebound from a low below $50,000 indicates that the year will end on a positive note. TradingShot stated, “This week, Bitcoin will end August trading. The 1M candle chart not only rebounded strongly at the 1W MA50 (red trend line), but remained in the symmetric pivot area for 6 consecutive months. This area is critical because it acted as a resistance level during the previous cycle at the end of 2021, and it has been a support level since the recent breakout in March 2024. The bullish wave on the 2-year channel indicates that $100,000 is within reach after the close of the month.” Author: BitPushNews Mary LiuTwitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN比推 TG Community: https://t.me/BitPushCommunity比推 TG Subscriptions:... https://t

725d agoWendy#2023 market #altcoins #Bitcoin #Federal Reserve #US stocks #Interest rate cut