[Comparative Daily Market News] Concerns about the US recession have resurfaced, and it is difficult to find the direction of BTC

The “September Curse” continues to engulf the financial markets.WednesdayUS stocks and crypto market trends are struggling.

According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics's job vacancies and labor mobility survey, the number of US job vacancies in July fell from 7.91 million after a downward revision last month to 7.67 million. This figure fell short of all expectations of economists. Job vacancies in July fell to their lowest level since early 2021, and layoffs increased, in line with signs of slowing demand for other workers.

After the data was released, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FED WATCH tool showed that the market is currently expecting September 18Federal ReserveThe probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 49%. Furthermore, the US 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve turned positive for the second time since 2022, heightening investors' concerns about the US recession.

In terms of US stocks, by the close of the day, the S&P index and the Nasdaq index were down 0.16% and 0.30%, respectively, while the Dow Jones index rose 0.09%.

Comparative data shows thatBitcoinIt fell below the $56,000 support level in the early hours of Wednesday morning, hitting an intraday low of $55,567 before bulls pushed it back above $58,000. At press time, BTC was trading at $58,010, down 0.25% in 24 hours.

The altcoin market showed mixed results. Among the top 200 tokens by market capitalization,1inch network(1INCH) led the increase with 21.6%, followed byAave(AAVE) and GMT (GMT), rose 11.9% and 11.6%, respectively. Sun (SUN) fell 9.2%, leading the decline.Flux(FLUX) fell 8.5% and Toncoin (TON) fell 7.4%.

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap is $2.03 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 56.5%.

“Hard to find direction”

Secure Digital Markets analysts stated in the report: “Since last week, the RSI has been forming a bullish divergence, indicating that selling pressure may abate. Despite these short-term signals, long-term technical indicators are still unclear, and Bitcoin is still in the middle of a long-term downward channel with no clear direction.”

Market analyst Bloodgood warned that this weakness could continue for some time and could cause Bitcoin to fall below $50,000.

In its latest market update, Bloodgood stated:“Bitcoin's retracement continues, and last week we discussed that the accumulation zone seemed weak, and we saw a break at that level before the end of the week. A break below the accumulation zone may confirm our theory that a new low is likely. If that's the case, then $46,700 is right around the corner, and it might be wise to make some bids near this level. If the bulls manage to push Bitcoin back above the breakout zone around $59,000, this theory will fail.”

In addition to assets such as Bitcoin and tech stockstrendBeyond the correlation, Bloodgood said the real driver of the market remains the Federal Reserve.

He pointed out that tech upstart Nvidia's recent pullback dominated the general market decline, and the crypto market is following this trend, but this will not change the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies. He added: “What is more important is how the Federal Reserve and Treasury will act to stabilize the stock market and keep bond yields at an acceptable level. In view of the upcoming elections, they will act as soon as possible. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates sooner than expected, which is why most people's main goal should be not to be scared away by volatility during this period”.

Although investors are eagerly awaiting the first rate cut, crypto data analyst Brett reminded users on the X platform that historical data shows that interest rate cuts are often accompanied by a sharp drop in stock prices, and there is no reason to think this time will be different.

On Twitter, he analyzed:“We are still 15 days away from the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in this round. Using the same time frame, I superimposed the following past cycle of interest rate cuts: 1981, 1990, 2000, and 2007. These four interest rate cut cycles match the data we have seen so far (rising unemployment, 10-year 2-year inversion, etc.). The opinion of the bulls is that interest rate cuts are suitable for the market. In the long run, this is true... But history shows that after interest rate cuts, the market will rise for an average of 25 days, and then experience an average of 13 months of sell-off.”

Twitter:https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN

Compare the TG exchange group:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity

Compare TG subscriptions:https://t.me/bitpush

Comparing Btok subscriptions:https://btok360.com/bitpush