[Comparative Daily Market News] Expectations of 50 basis point interest rate cut ignite the market, and bulls strongly counterattack

On Friday, various asset classes rose across the board, and US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold rebounded one after another. At this point, there are less than six days left until the Federal Reserve's historic policy shift.

The rise in the market is due in large part to investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve may announce a 50 basis point cut in interest rates after the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Bill Dudley, former governor of the New York Federal Reserve, said there were “good reasons” for further interest rate cuts.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch tool currently shows a 49% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, up from 28% on Thursday.

Comparative data shows that earlier in the day, BTC surged more than $1,500 in the short term, jumping from $58,000 to $59,700, breaking 6 after the US stock market closed$9,000.At press time, BTC was trading at $60,280, up 4.24% in 24 hours.

Like the general market, altcoins performed strongly this week, with over 90% of the top 200 coins rising. Among them, Nervous Network (CKB) led the way, up 45.3%, Pol (POL) rose 12.1%, and Popcat (POPCAT) rose 11.9%. Sun (SUN) saw the biggest drop, down 6.6%, while BinaryX (BNX) fell 5.4% and Worldcoin (WLD) fell 5.1%. Currently, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.1 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's share is 56.4%.

U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq up 0.54%, 0.72%, and 0.65%, respectively, by the close. Among them, the S&P 500 index and NASDAQ recorded their biggest weekly gains since November last year.

Volatility is expected to increase further

This weekBitcoin has finally come to an end in its upward model.Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said, “This price trend is consistent with the recent pattern of increased volatility in the low time frame, fluctuating within a six-month downward channel. If this trend continues, we can easily see BTC testing the $62,000-$64,000 range next week.”

Regarding Ethereum, the analyst believes: “Ethereum (ETH) continues to perform poorly. As highlighted on the ETH/BTC chart, the daily chart shows that the bearish momentum of the ETH/BTC pair shows no signs of slowing down, indicating that it may be difficult to keep up with Bitcoin in the short term.”

Although interest rate cuts are good news for risky assets, OKX Global Chief Commercial Officer Lennix Lai believes that asset prices are unlikely to “only rise” from now on, so traders should be prepared for continued fluctuations.

 Lai said:“Given the current market uncertainty, the market may be quite unstable for the rest of the month as traders react to broader economic indicators. Although short-term fluctuations are to be expected due to traders responding to economic indicators, increased institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market may provide more stability and liquidity in the medium to long term.”

According to the Economist Impact Report commissioned by OKX, “69% of institutional investors plan to increase their allocation of digital assets over the next 2-3 years, which shows that confidence in the cryptocurrency market is growing despite short-term uncertainty.”

Regarding the driving factors behind Bitcoin's recent price trend,LaiHe said, “It is largely influenced by expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts and speculations about a new cycle of interest rate cuts. These macroeconomic factors, combined with changes in investor sentiment, are driving market dynamics.”

 He pointed out:“Currently, BTC's key support and resistance level is around $50,000, and this area is critical for traders as it may determine the next direction of BTC's price movement. That being said, we're likely to see these levels change over the next few months as institutional engagement increases and mainstream adoption increases.”

He said that the outlook for BTC appears to be cautious in the short term, but he is optimistic about the long-term outlook, which is supported by a variety of factors, including increasing institutional adoption and investment; increasingly clear regulations in major markets; and the growing crypto ecosystem.

According to cryptocurrency analyst and investor Jason Pizzino, once BTC turns $61,500 from resistance to support, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will begin.

Pizzino on YouTubeupdatingMedium display:“If we start to see some testing and close above $58,000 in the short term, this is probably a good early rebound. Next, we'll test the more important level in my analysis, around $61,500, which is a 50% adjustment from March to August. This is the next key level for Bitcoin to test, overcome, and consolidate. It's basically the next phase of the bull market to push to a new all-time high.”

Pizzino also believes that volatility may still play a major role. Bitcoin is likely to fall by more than 15% from its current level, but the bullish argument will not fail.

He said, “Bitcoin is still above about $52,000, $53,000, August's low of $49,000, and we've studied previous downside levels — if Bitcoin falls again and goes all the way back to around $40,000, it will still be in a macro bull market. From then on, Bitcoin once again settled above $61,500 and will begin an upward path.”

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