cpi · 1446

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: FOMC minutes are hawkish, and the market focuses on high interest rates for longer

Comparing news, Lewis Huang, chief analyst of Bitget CFD, said in a live broadcast yesterday that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting overall sent an eagle signal. Despite keeping interest rates unchanged at this meeting, many officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to fall back to the 2% target, further policy tightening or even raising interest rates again is still a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term, but should re-evaluate the impact of “maintaining high interest rates for longer” on the US dollar, US bond yields, gold, and US stock valuations. Lewis Huang pointed out that the future direction of the market will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rises and the job market remains resilient, US dollar and US bond yields may strengthen, and highly valued assets such as gold and Nasdaq 100 may be under pressure; conversely, if inflation cools down significantly and employment and consumption weaken at the same time, the market will once again raise the Fed's easing expectations, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to be supported. He recommended that CFD traders focus on the trend of US two-year treasury bond yields, the US dollar index and gold, wait for price breakouts and retracement confirmation after major data is released, avoid chasing the first wave of fluctuations, and strictly control leverage and stop-loss risks.

1d ago

Citi downplays the hawkish nature of the meeting minutes, and J.P. Morgan is concerned about the differences in inflation within the Federal Reserve

Comparative news. According to Kim Ju's report, at the July meeting, three Federal Reserve officials voted against the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. They believe that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates because the core inflation rate was still as high as 2.6% at the time, which is significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target. But the data released in August is weakening their reasons for supporting interest rate hikes. The July CPI report showed that after excluding volatile food and energy prices, core prices rose 2.5% year over year, the lowest level since March 2021. Meanwhile, the July employment report showed that the US lost 23,000 jobs in the month. Andrew Hollenhorst, the US chief economist at Citigroup Research, said that these data will make it difficult for the minutes of the meeting to drastically change the market's currently reduced probability expectations of interest rate hikes. However, the minutes of the meeting will show more clearly the extent of the differences between eagles and pigeons within the Federal Reserve during the July meeting. The minutes of the meeting may reveal how officials will define and assess inflationary pressures in the future. Michael Ferrori, chief US economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, wrote that the minutes of the meeting may give us an idea of how much the other FOMC members actually tolerate higher than target inflation.

3d ago

Bitunix Analyst: Federal Reserve Minutes and PMI Relapsed, Hormuz Situation Affects Oil Prices and Global Risk Appetites

Comparing news, this week the market will welcome the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, August PMI, and financial reports from retail giants such as Walmart and Target. Recently, US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data are weak. The market's pricing for the Fed's September rate hike has dropped to about 27%. Goldman Sachs also believes that a September rate hike is very unlikely, and the pressure on short-term interest rates has eased somewhat. However, the FOMC minutes still need to observe the attitude of officials on inflation and energy prices. If the minutes send strong signals, interest rate expectations may still be repriced. On the other hand, whether commercial shipping can actually resume in the Strait of Hormuz will directly affect oil prices and inflation expectations. According to reports, Iran and Oman have made progress on shipping routes, but the actual traffic volume is still far below normal, so it is still diplomatic progress rather than the elimination of supply risks. If shipping continues to resume, the crude oil risk premium is expected to fall; conversely, if negotiations are blocked or the maritime conflict heats up, the rise in oil prices will increase pressure on global inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, US stocks remain high, but the US consumer side has shown some weakness. This week's earnings reports from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot will further verify consumer resilience. Currently, the biggest contradiction in the market is that corporate profits are still strong, but high oil prices, cooling employment, and living costs are reducing the spending capacity of some consumers. If consumption remains resilient, AI and corporate profits can still support US stock valuations; if consumption deteriorates further, the market will re-evaluate the sustainability of corporate profits and high valuations. Overall, the core of the market this week is not a single expectation of interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts, but whether declining monetary policy pressure can offset the pressure on capital costs caused by energy prices, fiscal financing, and long-term interest rates. FOMC minutes, PMI, retail earnings reports, and Hormuz shipping conditions will jointly determine the ability of risky assets to withstand a high valuation environment.

5d ago

Weekly macro outlook: the Federal Reserve's minutes join hands with PMI, can Korean stocks continue the technical bull market, and the market is keeping an eye on the three key variables

Comparing news, risk appetite in global financial markets has rebounded overall in the past week. The US stock S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached high levels. The main trading line was defense and hedging to return to interest rate cut expectations and AI profits. Technology stocks and chip stocks led the way; South Korea's KOSPI index rose 11.5% cumulatively, ending seven consecutive weeks of decline and returning to a technical bull market. The US dollar index remained almost flat throughout the week. Improved inflation data lowered expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and an unexpected negative increase in retail sales accelerated the dollar's decline on Friday. Next week's focus will be on three major variables: First, whether a breakthrough can be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are in the process of agreeing on a shipping route and planning to determine a shipping map, but the US has not participated in negotiations and has a tough attitude, and actual navigation volume is still extremely low. If the joint declaration is implemented, the US releases a signal to lift the blockade, and traffic volume continues to improve, the geopolitical premium on oil prices is expected to fall back and risk appetite recovers. Second, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the July meeting in the early hours of Thursday morning. The market will pay attention to whether more members, in addition to public opponents, are inclined to raise interest rates, and whether the impact of energy and tariffs will spread to service prices. Third, the initial values of the European and American PMIs, which were intensively released on Friday. If weakened, it will further consolidate the expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in September. List of key events for next week (Beijing time): Weekly changes in ADP employment numbers for the week of Tuesday at 20:15 from the US to August 1 at 02:00 on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting 20:30 the number of jobless claims from the US to August 15, the US August Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index on Friday 07:30 Japan's July core CPI annual rate at 21.45 US preliminary S&P global manufacturing PMI for August, the initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI for August values

6d ago

Consumer confidence cooled under the impact of the war in Iran, and US retail sales recorded the biggest drop in more than a year in July

Comparing the news, US consumer spending showed clear signs of slowing down. According to data from the US Department of Commerce, retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, the biggest monthly decline since May 2025, far below the slight increase previously anticipated by the market. The data shows that after excluding gasoline, retail sales still fell 0.6%, reflecting that weak consumption was not only affected by energy prices. The core retail sales indicator, which measures potential consumer trends, fell 0.4% in July, below market expectations; online sales fell 2.2%, auto and parts dealer sales also declined, while restaurant and bar sales increased 0.5%. Since retail sales are nominal data, the impact of inflation is not deducted. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to rise by 0.1% in July, and the decline in actual product purchases is likely to be close to 0.7%. The market believes that the energy supply shock brought about by the Iran war is increasing the pressure on the US economy. The Federal Reserve said earlier that the Middle East conflict has caused energy prices to rise, driving up the level of inflation, while household consumption growth is only very moderate. Consumer confidence also deteriorated at the same time. According to data from the University of Michigan, the initial value of consumer confidence in the US fell to 51 in August, down from 55.2 in July, ending two consecutive months of improvement. Among them, the confidence of the elderly, low-income groups, and non-college educated people declined even more clearly. The job market is also showing signs of weakness. The US lost 23,000 jobs in July, and the labor participation rate fell to 61.4%. The unemployment rate remained 4.1%, mainly due to part of the population withdrawing from the labor market, and wage growth slowed to 3.2%. Analysts pointed out that the energy price shock may mask the weakening fundamentals of the US economy: inflation rises due to supply-side pressure, but consumers cut spending due to falling purchasing power, and companies face the risk of weak demand. The consumer sector, which contributes about two-thirds of economic activity, is cooling down, which may make subsequent policy decisions by the Federal Reserve more difficult.

7d ago

This week's hot review: Expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike plummeted, and the AI frenzy and the Middle East crisis dominated the market

Comparing news, the global market this week focused on cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve's policy, the situation in the Middle East, and the wave of AI investment. The US CPI and PPI both declined in July, and the market drastically lowered expectations for interest rate hikes during the year, but long-term US debt was still suppressed by fiscal pressure. US technology stocks have rebounded, the South Korean stock market has risen more than 20% in two weeks, and the AI industry chain has once again become the main capital line. US CPI rose 3.4% year on year in July, core CPI rose 2.5% year on year, PPI fell to 4.7% year on year, and market expectations for the Fed's September rate hike declined markedly. However, the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds rose to 5.22%, a record high since 2001, and investors are concerned that the widening US deficit is driving up long-term financing costs. The situation in the Middle East continues to heat up. Trump said that the US will declare the Strait of Hormuz as US territory after defeating Iran, and said that it will carry out further economic attacks on Iran. Iran responded that the opening and closing of the straits can only be decided by Iran. The US military continued to strengthen regional deployment, and the USS Washington aircraft carrier went to the Middle East to take over defense. The AI capital market continues to expand. Nvidia, in partnership with BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and other institutions, plans to raise more than 500 billion US dollars in capital to support the construction of AI data centers. Hwang In-hoon said that AI computing is becoming a new type of infrastructure similar to energy and transportation, but the market is also beginning to pay attention to the risks of AI financing models. Korea's KOSPI Index rebounded strongly this week, rising nearly 22% from its low at the end of July, and re-entering a technical bull market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are led by growing demand for AI servers and HBM. AI company valuations continue to heat up. According to reports, Anthropic is planning an IPO, and the market is expecting a valuation that could reach $2 trillion. OpenAI, on the other hand, has accelerated commercialization, and its annual revenue is said to have exceeded 40 billion US dollars. As a tech giant, it was revealed that Apple is cooperating with Alibaba to train a big model exclusive to the Chinese market and adjust the AI localization strategy. Meanwhile, there is still controversy over whether to advance Apple's 20th anniversary all-glass iPhone project. On the market side, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continued to rise this week, and investors are betting again on interest rate cut expectations and AI profit cashing logic. However, Bank of America warns that the current bullish sentiment in the market is close to the extreme level since 2021, and we need to be wary of geopolitical risks and valuation pressures.

7d ago

Federal Reserve Goulsby: More evidence is still needed to confirm a decline in inflation

Comparative news. According to Kim 10, Chicago Federal Reserve Governor Goulsby said that the recent CPI data is encouraging, but inflation was still high in May and June. If the June trend continues in the next three or four months, we can be sure that prices are steadily returning to the 2% target. He supported keeping interest rates unchanged in July, saying that inflation is still the biggest concern, and the economy and employment are generally stable. He warned that if retail sales continue to decline, it will cause concern, as consumption is a key pillar of the US economy. Furthermore, he expressed concern about the recent decline in productivity growth, saying that if AI-driven growth is unsustainable, the narrative surrounding AI and monetary policy will need to be re-examined. As to whether to reduce the number of policy meetings, Goulsby said he had no strong opinions and was willing to wait for the working group's recommendations.

8d ago

Grayscale: If ETH and SOL implement a plan to reduce token inflation, it may support the price

Comparing news, Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl wrote that the Ethereum and Solana communities are discussing adjustments to the token economy model, and related code changes may reduce the annual inflation rate of ETH and SOL, thereby reducing future token supply. Other conditions remain unchanged, slowing supply growth may support the token price. Grayscale estimates that if the relevant adjustments are implemented, by the end of 2031, the annual supply inflation rate of ETH will drop to about 0.4%, close to BTC; SOL will be about 1.1%. In contrast, the annual gold supply growth rate is about 1.8%, and the US CPI inflation rate is about 3.3%. Currently, the relevant plans are still being discussed in the respective communities. Pandl said that Solana-related proposals seem to have received a broader consensus and are therefore more likely to be implemented. If the plan is approved, the number of tokens received by ETH and SOL stakers will be reduced since the staking rewards mainly come from the issuance of new tokens. Pandl notes that reduced supply may increase scarcity and put upward pressure on prices, and holders of unstaked ETH and SOL may benefit; as to whether stakers benefit, it depends on the net effect between the reduction in staking rewards and the potential increase in the token price. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

8d agoburnking

Hawks are not convinced, the White House is forced to stand still, and the Federal Reserve may stand still in September

Comparatively speaking, since taking over the Federal Reserve in May of this year, Walsh has faced extremely complicated monetary policy choices. However, the latest series of weak macro data may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for a longer period of time. The recent decline in inflation indicators has directly weakened the internal hawkish argument that “inflation cannot cool down without raising interest rates.” The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the July Producer Price Index (PPI) was unexpectedly flat from month to month. The data released just the day before also showed that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded only a slight increase after falling in June. When the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged last month, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak was one of the three policymakers who voted against it. She publicly reiterated on Thursday: “I think we need to act now because I think we need to reduce inflation back to the 2% target faster than the long-term downward path under current interest rates.” While internal hawkish pressure is being applied, the White House's political intervention has never stopped. Trump is still calling for drastic interest rate cuts, and publicly accuses Walsh's “hostile” colleagues of blocking the rate cut process. In the face of a multi-party game, Walsh remained silent about his plans and avoided providing any form of forward-looking guidance. Regardless, the market is still pricing potential austerity. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's US Federal Reserve observation tool, investors currently expect the possibility that the Fed's policy interest rate will rise by more than 90% before the end of the year. Between tolerating solidification of inflation and increasing unemployment as a result of higher borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve's next move is difficult. (Reuters)

8d ago