Han Feng: BTCD can play an important role in future listed companies in dealing with debt crises

(This article was rearranged based on Han Feng's speech at DBS Bank Tower RWA Forum in Lujiazui, Shanghai)

I. Introduction: Starting from personal experience, focusing on the debt crisis and the value of BTCD

Today I want to talk to you about some actual topics, all based on my own experiences. Over the past many years, I have always been concerned about the relationship between Bitcoin and the debt crisis. From initially being questioned by the traditional financial community, to today's changes in global attitudes towards cryptocurrencies, to exploring BTCD solutions in actual combat, I hope to bring you new thoughts on dealing with the debt crisis of listed companies.

II. A shift in perception: from “questioning Bitcoin” to increasing global recognition

(1) Early conceptual conflict: traditional finance's exclusion of cryptocurrencies

In the early days of cryptocurrency development, I was directly opposed by traditional financiers who insisted that “money can only be issued by the central bank” — a core tenet in college finance textbooks, and it seems irrefutable. At a financial forum in Shanghai in 2016, a leader of the Financial Services Administration also strongly persuaded me: “The central bank must have exclusive rights to issue currency before implementing monetary policy.” At the time, these views sounded logical and rigorous, but subsequent global financial practices gradually overturned this “single perception.”

(2) 180-degree shift in attitude: US and Harvard recognition

1. US policy shift: Now the US has clearly confirmed that Bitcoin can be used as a national reserve asset, and sees stablecoins as an important means to resolve the US debt crisis. This transformation proves that excluding the financial role of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will drastically reduce the country's monetary policy choice space, and even fall into a “stuck neck” passive situation in trade wars.

2. Harvard resonance: In 2024, in order to clearly explain the value of Bitcoin, I made a special trip to Harvard University to talk with Yale directors and Harvard alumni about “solving the global debt crisis.” After I proposed the core logic of Bitcoin, not only was it approved by them, but I also encouraged the NBW (New Bretton Woods) team to successfully obtain incubation approval from the Harvard Innovation Center under the advice of Professor Harvard Xue (for example, going to the Cuiyuan Hotel in Boston).

3. High level concern: Even President Trump has begun to focus on Bitcoin and stablecoins — essentially, traditional “central bank issuing money” methods are no longer sufficient to resolve the current debt crisis, and cryptocurrencies provide a new path.

III. The nature of the global debt crisis: the 100-year cycle and the failure of traditional solutions

(1) Redalio's core judgment: the once-in-a-century crisis

Redalio, founder of Qiaoshui Fund, concluded through massive data in “Debt Crisis” that the world is currently in a global, deep, large-scale debt crisis once in 100 years. Unlike a “minor crisis” every 10 years (such as the 2008 financial crisis), the scale and depth of impact of this crisis far exceeds that of the past, and is an “overall crisis-level cycle.”

(2) Limitations of traditional solutions: “printing more money” cannot cure the root causes

In the face of a debt crisis, traditional methods essentially “inject liquidity through money printing”, such as:

· Global mainstream “quantitative easing” policies;

· China launched a $4 trillion bailout plan in 2008.

However, these methods are largely ineffective for the “once-in-a-century crisis” — the last crisis of a similar level was the Great Depression of 1929, which ultimately required World War II to break the cycle, which is enough to explain the limitations of the traditional path.

4. The key to breaking the game: the core value of hard currency (gold, bitcoin)

(1) Essential advantages of hard currency: increasing liquidity without increasing debt

Radalio clearly stated in “The Debt Crisis” that to resolve the century-level debt crisis, it is necessary to rely on hard currency (such as gold and Bitcoin). The core reason is:

· Hard currency can provide capital liquidity to the market and will not increase the debt of any party;

· The logic of the traditional banking system is opposite: capital injection depends on “borrowing”, which will inevitably be accompanied by an increase in debt, which ultimately results in high debt accumulation and difficulties in recovering.

(2) Historical References: Implications of the Bretton Woods System

The essence of the Bretton Woods system in 1944 was to “anchor hard currency gold and issue dollars” — equivalent to “anchoring gold to issue stablecoins” according to today's blockchain logic. It relied on this model to resolve the global debt crisis at the time.

This historical experience proves that the crisis cannot be solved by “the central bank's exclusive issuance of currency”; it is necessary to combine “hard currency” with market consensus to find a way to bail out the market.

(Note: The town of Bretton Woods is only a 2-hour drive from Boston, where Harvard is located. This background also made it easier for Harvard alumni to resonate, and ultimately led to the establishment of the NBW Project Group.)

(3) Bitcoin: a “digital hard currency” with more potential than gold

The value of Bitcoin is not only due to its “hard currency properties”, but also because it is in line with the new human perception of wealth:

· The essence of the wealth of gold is based on “atomic theory” (Newton's mechanical worldview), and the current human perception of the universe has shifted to “numbers and information are entities” (in line with the logic of AI's big model). Bitcoin, as a digital asset, fits this trend;

· Liquidity advantage: Bitcoin's liquidity on the global blockchain far exceeds that of gold, which is the core reason why listed companies choose Bitcoin over gold to solve their problems;

· Market capitalization space: The current market value of Bitcoin is about 2 trillion dollars, and gold is about 25 trillion dollars. The gap seems large, but the bull market is only half over, and there is significant room for future growth.

(4) The practice of stablecoins: the case of USTD

Currently, mainstream stablecoins (such as USTD) have a market capitalization of 150 billion dollars, and most of the capital is used to buy US bonds — these new wealth liquidity is essentially brought about by blockchain cryptocurrencies (the core is Bitcoin). They not only conform to the logic of “hard currency solutions to the crisis,” but also maintain the hegemony of the US dollar and achieve “two gains in one stroke.”

5. China's Dilemma: Debt Characteristics and Perceived Limitations

(1) The root cause of China's debt crisis: real estate dependency

The “abundance of capital” during the boom period of China's Internet economy in the past was essentially supported by “rising real estate”. The specific path is as follows:

· Listed companies do not focus on their main business and invest heavily in real estate;

· Use real estate as collateral to further expand the scale;

Ultimately, companies such as Evergrande and other local governments have accumulated huge amounts of debt. The model is completely consistent with Japan's 90s and Hong Kong's real estate bubble, making it unsustainable.

(2) The chain impact of the housing bubble: young people and market perceptions

1. Impact on young people: High housing prices have caused young people to lose hope, such as social problems caused by “difficulties in buying a home” in Hong Kong, and the phenomenon of “lying flat” and “not being fertile” in the mainland. The root causes are all related to the housing bubble;

2. Limitations of the financial view: Chinese people's perception of finance is still limited to an “atomic worldview,” which only recognizes “wealth that can be seen and touched” (such as houses and physical products), and has low acceptance of bonds and stocks, not to mention digital assets such as Bitcoin — which further exacerbates the difficulty of resolving the debt crisis.

6. Practical Solution: How BTCD Can Help Listed Companies Resolve Debt Crises

(1) Case background: The urgent needs of listed companies

While attending the conference in Shanghai, the owner of a NASDAQ listed company took the initiative to meet with me — the company is in debt crisis due to the downturn in real estate, financial statements continue to deteriorate, and new solutions are urgently needed. After understanding the NBW team's “Bitcoin + stablecoin” logic, he proposed a complete solution to the game.

(2) Specific operation path: debt-free “spiral upward” model

1. Asset tokenization: convert 10%-20% of the company's shares into RWA (real-world asset tokenization) to obtain capital through monetization;

2. Buy Bitcoin and mint BTCD: Use cash to buy Bitcoin, then mint the stablecoin BTCD through the NBW system (combined with Fist or ELA's “gold and silver minting” logic);

3. Liquidity cycle: Using the liquidity created by the PG community, use BTCD to buy more bitcoins and then mint more BTCD — forming a spiral of “increase in holdings → increase in the company's market value → more capital to buy coins”.

(3) Core strengths and risks

1. Financial efficiency advantage: The boss estimates that the capital usage efficiency of this model is 2.85 times higher than that of American companies such as MicroStrategy (MicroStrategy);

2. Non-debt characteristics: The company did not add any debt during the whole process, which perfectly solved the core pain point of the “debt crisis”;

3. Risk is manageable: the only risk is “BTCD will pay 7% interest per year”, and if Bitcoin's average annual increase is less than 7% over three years, it may lose money — but historical data shows that this has never happened;

4. Stablecoin anchoring mechanism: BTCD does not have a “liquidation mechanism due to Bitcoin price fluctuations”, and its value stability depends entirely on “Bitcoin hedging options purchased in advance.”

7. Summary: BTCD and the future value of Bitcoin

The listed company owner's plan perfectly validates BTCD's central role in the debt crisis — it does not simply rely on “cryptocurrency hype,” but combines “hard currency attributes,” “asset tokenization,” and “liquidity cycles” to provide listed companies with a viable path of “debt-free solutions.”

In the future, as Bitcoin's market value continues to grow and the BTCD model becomes more mature, not only can more listed companies learn from this solution, but it can also provide a reference for “China's practices” for the global 100-year debt crisis. For China, breaking the financial perception limitations of the “atomic worldview” and facing up to the value of digital assets will be the key to seizing this round of opportunity.

Twitter:https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN

Compare the TG exchange group:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity

Compare TG subscriptions:https://t.me/bitpush