How can TGE timing be a decisive factor in the success or failure of a crypto project?
Author: Haotian
Original title: Why is TGE's “Tianshi” so important?
When I saw a picture in the morning, I had some thoughts. I'll share it with you:
1) Choosing TGE in a time window with plenty of liquidity is important, so important that it ignores the fundamentals of the project.
For example, $Pengu, an NFT community MEME token, was launched on December 17 last year, but it performed better than most projects, while $BABY and $HUMA were all projects with technical descriptions and VC layout endorsements. They went live during the phase of relative exhaustion of liquidity in April and May of this year, and the performance was very poor.
2) Projects all like to go online, but they need to consider whether they can accept market liquidity.
For example, projects such as Hyperliquid, Movement, Pengu, and Morpho appeared in November-December of last year, because Zadai had mixed performance, but the good news was that most of them ran away; in April-April of this year, Babylon, Initia, Zora, Huma, and Sophon appeared. As a result, liquidity was insufficient, and their performance was unsatisfactory;
3) Under the TGE time window, some “opening is the peak” project may also occur.
Some projects will take advantage of abundant market liquidity and retail Fomo's point-in-time TGE to ignore their own lack of fundamentals. For example, Trend, Berachain, and Fomo were bursting with emotion at the beginning of the market, but in the end, they all plummeted endlessly. It can only be explained that if market liquidity dividends are not supported by fundamentals, they will accelerate the “decline” of some projects.
4) Under the wrong TGE time window, fearful about some fundamentals but psychological projects are a golden opportunity to discover value.
$ZORA is a typical example. It went online during the clearest and most liquid time in the market, and became the only winner in that batch of projects. The earlier $Virtual was similar. At its dimly launch, it always showed outstanding fundamental performance, leading a wave of Posolana's AI agent craze and winning the collective believer to the end.
5) Regardless of whether you are strong or weak, you can always end up with a project with excellent fundamentals.
For example, Hyperliquid has been able to establish a huge community of supporters, lead a wave of Perp Dex narration craze, and the $HYPE price has also climbed up the stairs; @flock_io
Furthermore, despite stepping on the cusp of TRUMP's massive liquidity absorption last year, the minimum market value of $FLOCK fell to an inflated amount of more than 3 million, but with its outstanding fundamental performance, it almost achieved a Grand Slam listing on the exchange, allowing believers to win at the end. That's it. For most retail investors, they can understand the importance of the TGE time window and use differentiated strategies: strong TGE periods may chase higher, fast forward and fast exit; weak TGE periods focus on investment and research to find underrated high-quality indices and long-term holdings; they may all become the final winners, although it is difficult.
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