经济危机 · 281

Trump says he doesn't want to be another Hoover; the deal was reached to avoid economic collapse

Comparative news, according to Kim Ju's report, US President Trump delivered a speech after the G7 summit in France on Wednesday defending the agreement reached between the US and Iran, and stated that he did not want to see the war in the Middle East continue, causing an economic disaster. Trump said at the French lakeside resort Evian-les-Bains: The last thing I want to see is an economic disaster. If this conflict continues, it is entirely possible that this will happen. Trump said he doesn't want to be another Herbert Hoover. When the US stock market crashed in October 1929, Hoover was the president of the United States. The stock market disaster caused the evaporation of billions of dollars of wealth and eventually triggered the economic crisis that later became known as the Great Depression.

65d ago

Token-maxxing for all, an arms race that no one dares to stop

Source丨Late LatePost Late Column丨Meng Xing, partner of Wuyuan Capital, on the morning of March 24, 2026, I was sitting in the audience at YC W26 Batch Demo Day. When I heard the fifth company take the stage roadshow, I decided not to take notes anymore. It's not that it's unimportant, but I realized that the stuff I wrote down might be out of date next month. The work of more than 100 companies this year is actually highly concentrated: about 80% are vertical agents, such as helping lawyers sort out documents, helping customer service distribute work orders, and helping HR screen resumes. If I had seen these projects in October of last year, I'd probably think they were “quite thoughtful.” But the problem is, in these five months, the world has changed. Claude Code has gone from being a more developer-friendly tool to an interface that almost anyone can use directly. After Opus 4.6 came out, the entire Vibe Coding threshold was pushed to the floor. Those vertical agents, before business barriers were formed, today an ordinary engineer, or even myself, could do it in a weekend; they have lost their investment value. The first YC project cycle is three months. This batch of entrants in December, plus early screening, is equivalent to a “good company” selected 5 months ago. Five months, at the current rate of AI iteration, is enough for a few rounds of paradigm shift. I first started my business in 2012, when I got YC's Fly Out (field test invitation). At that time, YC almost excelled at the accelerator circuit, and the companies selected often represented the “next direction.” However, the competitive landscape is changing, and YC feels the opposite in recent years, gradually becoming a lagging indicator (lagging indicator). YC's batch system, from application, screening, recruitment, polishing, and road shows, has been in operation for more than ten years in the mobile internet era, and has been very successful. But this set of rhythms is designed for a slower world. Back in the venture capital industry for a year and a half, I visited Silicon Valley about once every quarter, the last time was in October of last year. In the past, every time I visited, I felt that it was changing very fast, but most of this kind of “fast” was perceived on a monthly basis. This time, you have to press “Week.” At dinner one day, a friend who does post-training (post-training) casually said, “I discovered that Silicon Valley itself couldn't keep up with myself.” Everyone token-maxxing: An arms race where no one dared to stop. If someone told me half a year ago that Meta's tens of thousands of engineers are all writing code with competitors' products, I'd think he was kidding. But it's true. Everyone uses Claude Code throughout Meta. This isn't a startup, not an experimental team, but a trillion-dollar company. Code security is no longer needed, token budgets have exploded, rankings have rolled up, and the whole of Silicon Valley is spending money on AI regardless of the cost. But what about after you've smashed it? Let's talk about code security first. Half a year ago, this was completely unimaginable, because code is the company's core asset, how could you let an outside company's API touch it? Meta thought the same way at first; they made something called myclaw internally to try to solve this problem. A Meta friend told me that they made a coding product, but “it's not easy to use, no one uses it.” After no one used it, the company had to relax: as long as there was no customer data involved, they loved using Claude Code. Then, various departments began holding internal meetings on “how to become an AI native organization” to conduct training and assessments. Code safety and usage safety, these red lines, which were natural in the past, have all been relegated to the back, so let's catch up with efficiency first and then talk about it. For security reasons, Google prohibits most employees from using competitors' tools like Claude Code or Codex, with the exception of DeepMind, where several teams responsible for the Gemini model and internal applications all use Claude Code. Google itself isn't without effort: they launched an internal coding tool, Antigativity, and in February of this year, they also claimed that about 50% of the company's new code has already been written by AI. But even so, the people at DeepMind are still using...

116d agoWendy#AI #OpenClaw topics #VC #depths #Silicon Valley #financing #viewpoints

Bahrain calls on the UN to pass a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz by force

Comparing news, Bahrain's foreign minister called on the UN to pass a resolution authorizing the use of force to clear the Strait of Hormuz in order to avoid a humanitarian and economic crisis. Bahrain's foreign minister said: “The draft does not seek to escalate the situation, but rather aims to provide a framework to prevent further collapse of the international system by emphasizing the need to protect freedom of navigation and transit and prevent further attacks.” (Wall Street Journal)

138d ago

“The Godfather of Crypto” speaks out: Halving the previous high, 42,000 may reach the ultimate bottom

Edited & Edited by: Deep Wave TechFlow Guest: Michael Terpin Host: Bonnie Podcast Source: Bonnie Blockchain Original Title: Important! The Godfather of Cryptocurrency: Giant Whale Collective is about to hit rock bottom here! Michael Terpin [Bonnie Blockchain] Air Date: March 21, 2026 Highlights Summary Michael Terpin, known as the godfather of cryptocurrencies, brought Bitcoin's worst bloody predictions, and Bitcoin is returning to its “mathematical destiny.” Michael Terpin revealed how agencies are using 10/10 tariff tweets to artificially accelerate chart movements. In the face of the ultimate line of defense at $4.2 million, Terpin advises investors to abandon blind optimism and wait for the “winter” to clear out in a capitulatory manner. For young people, saving up to 1 BTC is still the only sure path through the depreciation of fiat currencies and achieving intergenerational wealth leapfrogging. Summary of exciting opinions on the mathematical logic of Bitcoin's “46-month cycle” In the history of Bitcoin, the core characteristics of Bitcoin's four-year cycle still hold true. In fact, the so-called “four-year cycle” is not strictly equal to four years, but is closer to a 46-month cycle. Satoshi Nakamoto's design goal was to have an average block generation time of 10 minutes per block. However, in reality, block generation time will be affected by the computing power of the entire network and the difficulty of mining. ... The halving time was “accelerated”. Insider Manipulation Regarding the “10/10 Sale” This sell-off was not an accident, but an organized act. Between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. New York time, continuous selling orders appeared in the market. This is clearly an organized operation, which is completely different from random panic selling by retail investors. Rumor has it that Morgan Stanley sent a memo to the broker a few minutes before the tweet, recommending “selling Bitcoin and MicroStrategy shares.” This sell-off also involved “automatic deleveraging” by market makers. As for the bloody prediction of the bottom of this bear market, I don't think it's reasonable for the bear market to last only 6 weeks; similarly, I don't think it will end after only 4 months. This will disrupt the pace of subsequent market cycles. I don't think the price will drop below $42,000. The retracement I'm expecting might be a bit more “moderate”, but it's definitely still more than 50%. When the price of Bitcoin falls to the $50,000 or even $40,000 range, you'll see mainstream media also start reporting “Bitcoin is dead” news — and this is often the best time to buy. Regarding the “Four Seasons Theory” and the “fall” of Bitcoin, the “fall” of Bitcoin began on the day the market bubble burst; when the market experienced “capitalization (capitulation)”, that is, the day the price bottomed out, Bitcoin's “winter” officially began. The best time to buy in every Bitcoin cycle is “winter.” The best time to sell is at the end of “summer,” that is, when the price is within 20% of the peak. Practical advice on fixed investment (DCA) The Regular Fixed Investment Act (DCA) is generally an effective investment strategy, but it is not applicable in the process of market decline. As the market continues to decline, DCA will only keep your investment costs falling as the price falls, which may eventually lead to even greater losses. A more reasonable use of DCA is to buy from the bottom of the market and continue to buy until the price rises. Regarding the price of the next halving (2028) and the supercycle's 2024 halving price is $63,900, I think the next round will at least double, and possibly even close to $200,000. For the second time, we'll see Bitcoin's price reach a new all-time high before the next halving. The so-called supercycle is the “diminishing returns (diminishing returns)” phenomenon we are currently seeing in the Bitcoin cycle, which may be replaced by the S-curve (S-curve of decreases) of technology. Generational wealth goals for young people For the average person, making sure they own 1 Bitcoin is enough. If you could own 1 Bitcoin and plan to retire after 40 years, I can't imagine Bitcoin being worth less than $10 million at that time. As a result, 1 Bitcoin can be an intergenerational asset. Bitcoin Cycle Update Bonnie: Welcome Michael Ter...

150d agoLuxurytracy

Citrini's backlash is still unresolved, what is the market still arguing about?

Author: SpecialistXBT Original title: Citrini no afterword Excellent article can cause the market to confuse “scenario deduction” with “realistic prediction.” On February 22, 2026, a report called “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” blew up social media and financial markets, with over 27 million views. On the day the report was released, IBM fell sharply by 13%, and the stock prices of companies such as DoorDash, American Express, and KKR fell by more than 6%. This report was written by James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research. The 33-year-old researcher has over 180,000 followers on X, and his Substack ranks first among financial authors. It focuses on thematic equity investment and global macro research. The style is known for cross-asset and horizontal associations. The real portfolio has returned more than 200% since 2023. In the form of a scenario deduction, the report imagines a future set in 2028: AI will replace white-collar workers on a large scale in just two years, leading to shrinking consumption, software asset defaults, and credit crunch, ultimately driving the economy into a malformed state where “technological prosperity” and “social decline” coexist. At the beginning of the article, Van Geelen said: “This article is about a possible scenario, not a prediction. “But the market clearly didn't have the patience to differentiate between the two. What is more noteworthy than the brief market scare, however, is the extensive discussion this article has sparked in the past few days. From academia to investment circles, from Wall Street to the Chinese Internet, more than a dozen response articles from different perspectives have appeared one after another. Rather than just listening to one extreme conclusion, maybe we can piece together a clearer future from the “differences and overlap” of various opinions. Citrini said what the logical line in Citrini's article was not complicated: the leap forward in AI capabilities led to large-scale replacement of white-collar jobs → rising unemployment led to a contraction in consumer spending → structured financial products with SaaS as the underlying asset experienced a wave of defaults → the credit crunch spread to the wider financial system → the economy fell into a malformed state where “technological prosperity” and “social decline” coexisted. Every link in this chain of cause and effect does not come out of nowhere. But connecting them from beginning to end and deducing them all at once to the crisis requires a series of very aggressive assumptions. There are many ways to break this chain. We might as well follow the three core sub-arguments, namely the speed and scale of labor replacement, the transmission mechanism of demand collapse, and the possibility of a financial crisis, and see what the different voices are actually debating around each link. The starting point of the unbreakable Citrini deduction was the large-scale replacement of the white-collar workforce by AI. In his story, this process suddenly accelerated between 2026 and 2028, with practitioners in the fields of law, financial analysis, software development, and customer service bearing the brunt. The changing share of companies' spending on AI model vendors and online workforce platforms, grouped by the industry's level of AI exposure, does support Citrini's view. An empirical study by Bick, Blandin, and Deming based on enterprise spending data shows that after the release of ChatGPT, companies with the highest AI exposure (that is, those that previously spent the most in the online labor market) significantly increased their spending on AI model providers while reducing their spending on the online labor market by about 15%. Notably, this replacement is not an “equal replacement” — for every $1 reduction in labor market spending, the company only increased AI spending by $0.03 to $0.30. In other words, AI is doing the same amount of work at far less cost than human labor. But Citrini probably overestimated the speed at which the transformation was taking place. Some opponents take the US real estate agent industry as an example. Although technology has long had the ability to drastically reduce the number of agents, the industry still employs more than 1.5 million people. The inertia of the system, regulatory barriers, and the game of interests within the industry have formed a path far stronger than technology...

175d agoburnking

The rise of Agentic AI, an approaching global intelligence crisis

Author: Alap Shah Original title: The Global Intelligence Crisis, Part One — The Rise of Agentic AI Compiled and organized by: bitpushNewsBitpush Note: Alap Shah is a senior expert with 20 years of open market investment experience (working for Viking Global and Citadel) and 15 years of AI entrepreneur background. He founded the AI financial search platform Sentieo. In this article, he stands on the dual perspective of investors and developers, and warns how the rise of “intelligent AI” (Agentic AI) will fundamentally impact the job market and trigger a global economic crisis. Foreword After several years of exponential growth, the recent leap forward in AI towards “agentic” (Agentic) is destined to disrupt the world as we know it from 2026. It's a troubling fact: AI is no longer just a tool for economic growth; it has become an almost immediate replacement for human cognitive labor. In the short term, it will replace white-collar workers much faster than the new market can absorb these workers. In this three-part series, I combine my 20 years of experience investing in the open market with 15 years of building AI companies to outline my views on the impending economic storm. Our entire economy is built on a single premise: human intelligence is a scarce and expensive resource. It is a critical input needed to transform raw materials into goods and services that determine our standard of living. In 2026, as intelligent AI matures, this basic assumption is falling apart. AI is no longer just a tool or aid; it is rapidly becoming a direct replacement for human cognitive labor. This shift fundamentally devalues white-collar work. Driven by advances in AI and a surge in capital, this substitution will inevitably accelerate, creating an economic shock that could dwarf the industrial revolution, the global financial crisis, and COVID-19. If urgent policy action is not taken, this could trigger a serious financial crisis within the next two years. In this article, I'll discuss the fundamental threat intelligent AI poses to employment and current economic models. Part 2:2028 Global Smart Crisis Warning — A thought experiment from the future of financial history with my friend Citrini. Read the guide: “The End of AI” post on the extranet: Will the S&P 500 plummet and white-collar jobs disappear?! In the upcoming “Part 3: The Way Forward,” I will propose a policy path to overcome the crisis. Please don't misunderstand me as an “AI destroyer” because of my warning. AI is the human Promethean moment — it was the fire that was eventually stolen from the gods. Its power leaves us less than a generation away from a prosperous life for all, unlimited clean energy, and the elimination of most diseases. Our challenge is not the technology itself, but how to survive the severe economic shocks caused by its arrival and how to restructure our financial system as necessary. Agentic AI (Agentic AI) The era of AI as a simple conversational chatbot is over. Over the past six months, we've crossed a critical threshold and entered the age of intelligent AI — systems that can operate autonomously to perform complex multi-step workflows. The pace of this evolution is astonishing. According to data from METR, a third-party agency that assesses autonomous AI capabilities, the duration for models to complete tasks without assistance doubles every six to seven months, and recent cases have even shown a further acceleration of the trend. Today, the leading model can perform 14.5 hours of continuous autonomous work. The chart from METR shows trend lines over time since 2019. We can clearly see a trend line that has been running for a long time and has recently accelerated. Note that the Y axis is a logarithmic scale, which means that the linear trend represents exponential “hockey stick” growth. To show the power of index trends, the table below represents Citrini's predictions of model capabilities and release dates if the current trend line continues. Trend line pointing: By mid-2028, AI will be able to complete unassisted work for up to a month. My point of view, my financial student...

179d agoWendy#Agentic AI #AI #AI topics #Alap Shah #Citadel

Federal Reserve Governor Milan: The Federal Reserve does not have absolute, 100% pure independence

Comparing news, Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the Fed's balance sheet needs to be reduced, but this should not prevent policymakers from choosing large-scale asset purchases during the economic crisis. Even if balance sheets are reduced, central banks still need to preserve the ability to use quantitative easing in times of crisis. He pointed out that real large fluctuations in the US dollar are needed to have a significant impact on inflation. While discussing the independence of the Federal Reserve, Milan said that central bank independence would bring better policies, but it is a means to an end, not the end itself. In times of crisis, there will be extensive cooperation between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. There is no absolute, 100% pure independence; nonetheless, it is critical that we make decisions based on economic needs—tighten when the economy needs to shrink, and ease when it needs to be relaxed, not for any other reason.

193d ago

Black Swan is absent, and there may be another reason why Bitcoin is oversold

Author: Nancy, PanNews Original title: There are no black swans, the four atypical speculations that are the “culprits” of Bitcoin overselling black swans are coming, yet we haven't seen where the black swans are, which is even more disturbing. With almost no sign, Bitcoin suddenly dived sharply and entered the 3rd largest oversold area in history. The balance of the bulls fell in sync with their psychological defenses. What is puzzling to the market is that there is no clear trigger for this spiral decline. Although reasons such as a sharp shift in macro risk, the revaluation of hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, tightening liquidity, and the trampling of the leveraged liquidation chain also explain the direction of decline, some atypical speculations are also trying to explain the strangeness of this round of market conditions. Speculation 1: A cross-market bloody case initiated by an Asian giant, Franklin Bi, general partner of Pantera Capital wrote an article speculating that the driving force behind the recent large-scale sell-off in the crypto market was not a crypto-focused trading company, but a large Asian entity from outside the circle. The entity's crypto counterparties are limited and therefore undetected by the crypto community. According to Franklin Bi's speculation, the entity carried out leveraged trading and market trading on Binance → liquidation of the Japanese yen arbitrage trade → extreme liquidity crisis → received a grace period of about 90 days → failed in an attempt to recover through gold/silver transactions → was forced to close the position this week. In other words, this is a “bloody case” of cross-market leverage misallocation caused by traditional financial risk spillover. In fact, Japanese yen arbitrage positions are an important source of global liquidity. In the past, investors were used to this arbitrage game where they borrowed yen at zero cost, exchanged it for dollars, and then invested in high-yield assets. However, as the yen entered a cycle of interest rate hikes and treasury bond yields soared, this set of rules of the game was broken, and Bitcoin, as one of the world's liquidity-sensitive assets, is often the “preferred ATM” when arbitrage funds are withdrawn. Judging from this, this speculation is reasonable. Bitcoin's current decline was particularly sharp and rapid during the Asian trading period. Parker White, chief investment officer at DeFi Dev Corp, also believes that this is a cross-market liquidity stampede. White wrote that yesterday (February 5) BlackRock's IBIT trading volume reached 10.7 billion US dollars, almost double the previous record high. The options premium was about 900 million US dollars, which also set a historical record. IBIT has become the number one place for Bitcoin options trading. Combined with phenomena such as the simultaneous decline in BTC and SOL and the sluggish settlement volume in the CeFi market, it is suspected that this fluctuation is due to the forced liquidation of a large IBIT holder. He further analyzed that many funds located in Hong Kong allocate most or even 100% of their assets to IBIT. This single asset structure usually aims to use the segregated security deposit mechanism. The fund involved may use yen financing to conduct a highly leveraged options game. Facing the double pressure of the Japanese yen arbitrage transaction to expedite the liquidation of positions and today's sharp drop in silver by 20%, the institution tried to recover previous losses by increasing leverage, and eventually completely collapsed due to the breakdown of the capital chain. Since most of these funds are non-crypto-native institutions and lack counterparties on the chain, their risk has not been detected by the crypto community before, but he also revealed that an unusually sharp decline in the net worth of some of the relevant Hong Kong funds today is already evident. Combined with White's analysis and previous 13F disclosure data, Avenir Group, the family office founded by Li Lin, is currently the largest Bitcoin ETF holder in Asia, holding 18.29 million IBIT shares, and has a high concentration of positions, accounting for 87.6% of its investment portfolio; the rest, such as Surge (Hong Kong) Assets, Ovata Capital, Monolith Management, and Andar Capital Management also hold Bitcoin spot ETFs, but the size of their holdings is relatively relatively large small. Although the clues are clear, White emphasized that it is currently still in the speculation phase. Due to delays in the disclosure of the 13F report, it is expected that relevant position information will not be available until mid-May. At the same time, he also warned that if a brokerage firm fails to complete the liquidation in a timely manner, the loopholes that may appear in its balance sheet will be difficult to cover up. Speculation 2: The US and the UK are selling off huge amounts of seized bitcoins. Rumors that many governments may sell and seize bitcoins have continued to ferment in the crypto community recently. On the US side, in January of this year, the US military operation captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Due to Venezuela's long-term economic crisis and international sanctions, outsiders speculated that the country had secretly set up a “shadow reserve” of up to 600,000 bitcoins, which led to discussions on whether the US had seized this part of the assets. There's currently no on-chain evidence, though...

197d agoLuxurytracy

The 2026 investment scripts of the 4 biggest tech billionaires: long on copper, bearish on oil, new crypto assets will replace gold and BTC

Original Article: All-In Podcast Compilation: Yuliya, PanNews Original Title: 2026 Investment Screenplay by the 4 Biggest Tech Billionaires: Long Copper, Bearish Oil, New Crypto Assets Will Replace Gold and BTC “All-In Podcast” is one of the world's most popular tech and business podcasts, co-hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The four hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, responsible for controlling the field), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the “King of SPAC,” with sharp opinions), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, with a deep scientific background and known as the “Sultan of Science”), and David Sacks (America's first “Tsar of AI and Cryptocurrency”, close friend of Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former Paypal executive, recently deeply involved in US politics). In this episode of the program, the four made in-depth predictions on 2026 political, business, and technology trends, covering topics such as California wealth tax, Trump economics, AI's impact on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment suggestions. Here are the details of this conversation, compiled by PanNews: Prologue: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis Jason Calacanis (hereinafter Jason): Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. David Sacks, everyone wants to know, how have you adjusted since you moved to Texas? David Sacks (hereinafter referred to as Sacks): I love the 70 degrees Fahrenheit (about 21 degrees Celsius) weather here. I finished my move in December, bought a new home, went to the car management office, and signed an Austin office lease for Craft Ventures. Everything is done. Jason: Chamath, what about you guys? Chamath Palihapitiya (hereinafter referred to as Chamath): We want to investigate, but we haven't made a final decision yet. Sacks: The funniest thing is that when we discussed the California wealth tax in the group, Chamath was still there and said, “I want to stay and fight, I'm not leaving my home.” As a result, I got a call from my agent saying she was helping Chamath find a house. Jason: Wow! Is Chamath making a “backroom deal”? Chamath: I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have clearly left, their combined net worth is around $500 billion. This is very bad for California's long-term budget. If you count those who are watching and may be forced to leave, roughly half of the estimated taxable wealth in the California budget will be lost. Sacks: I predict this (California wealth tax) will be a topic of conversation throughout the year. They are collecting signatures, and it will take about 850,000 signatures to send this proposal to the ballot. If it is confirmed to be on the list in April, it will cause huge panic, and many people will leave because they are unable to take the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone is expecting some kind of version to make a comeback in 2028. That's why I decided to leave. Chamath: If you're an entrepreneur with a good idea, it's hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed, hold a large number of illiquid stocks and have to pay 5% of the valuation of these stocks as taxes, which will bankrupt your own company. Sacks: And what if your company goes back to zero in the second year? You still owe your tax bill. Also, one of the reasons Larry Page and Sergey Brin (Google founder) left may be the super-voting clause in the proposal. The clause states that if you have super voting rights, the tax office will calculate the value of all of your shares as a multiple of your super voting rights. For example, if they have 52% of Google's voting rights, and Google's market capitalization is 4 trillion dollars, then their net worth may be regarded as having 1 trillion dollars each, rather than the actual 200 billion dollars. For them, the 5% tax actually became a 25% or even 50% tax. Jason: Lightning predicts, will this “asset seizure tax” pass? David Friedberg (...

215d agoLuxurytracy

Protests have escalated, the riyal has plummeted, and Iranians are frantically withdrawing money

Comparatively, against the backdrop of ongoing protests in Iran and the deepening economic crisis, Iranians are speeding up the withdrawal of bitcoins from trading platforms to personal wallets to avoid the risks of inflation and financial regulation. Blockchain analysis company Chainalysis pointed out that from the outbreak of protests on December 28, 2025 until Iran imposed an internet blockade on January 8, there was a significant increase in BTC transactions transferred from local trading platforms in Iran to unknown personal wallets, indicating that people are more inclined to directly control crypto assets during the turbulent period. Analysts believe this act is a rational response to the collapse of Iran's currency, the riyal (IRR). According to the data, the exchange rate of the riyal against the US dollar has plummeted from about 42 at the end of last year to more than 1,050 this week, and purchasing power has almost collapsed. Because of its decentralized, censorship-resistant, and transportable characteristics, Bitcoin is regarded as a key tool to combat currency depreciation and political uncertainty, providing people with liquidity and choice. Chainalysis also pointed out that this phenomenon is in line with global law: in times of war, economic turmoil, or government pressure, people often turn to cryptocurrencies to protect their assets. Notably, Iran's official forces are also increasing their use of crypto assets. The report shows that wallets linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accounted for more than 50% of Iran's total crypto activity reception in the fourth quarter of 2025, and processed more than $3 billion on the chain for the whole year (probably still undervalued).

218d ago