贵金属 · 754

Next week's macro outlook: US and Iran sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings report are coming in four major variables. The gold sword points to $4,700

Comparing news, the global market will face multiple risk events next week. The escalation of US and Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole World Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of PCE inflation data in the US for July, and the disclosure of Nvidia's earnings report may become core variables affecting risk asset trends. This week, the sharp rise in US long-term bond yields raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US bond repurchases, the pressure on the bond market eased somewhat, but investors are still concerned about the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East. Driven by US debt sustainability concerns, the weakening dollar, and the Treasury Department's expansion of the US bond repurchase program, spot gold surpassed 4,600 US dollars/ounce this week, rising for the third consecutive week, and hit a high of around $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may be at $4680 or even $4,700. Next week, the US-Iran relationship will be the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be blocked, and energy supply risks are driving crude oil to rise continuously. On the Federal Reserve side, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27th to 29th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is concerned about whether it will release future interest rate path signals and whether it can ease recent pressure on the US bond market. Currently, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September has declined, and traders will focus on Walsh's statement on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rate, and monetary policy framework. In terms of economic data, the US core PCE price index for July will be released next week. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focusing on. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-on-month. If the data is higher than expected, it may weaken expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on gold; if it falls short, it may further drive the rise of precious metals. In addition, revised US second-quarter GDP values, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and revised non-farm payroll benchmark data will also be released one after another next week. On the corporate side, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report will be the focus of the US stock market. Technology stocks have recently been under pressure. The Nasdaq index fell about 2% this week, and the semiconductor sector fell by more than 4%. The market will focus on Nvidia's continued investment in AI infrastructure, the progress of Rubin chips, and the state of business in China. Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it may become an important catalyst for the S&P 500 index to hit 8,000 points; if performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may increase the pressure on technology stocks to adjust.

7h ago

Bezent's expansion of US bond repurchases is accused of “playing with fire,” and the US may repeat the depreciation of the Japanese currency

Comparative news: After the US announced this week that it would expand treasury bond repurchases, causing severe market shocks, investors began to compare it with Japan's policy. Measures taken by Japan to lower borrowing costs in the past have caused the yen to weaken for a long time. The US dollar is currently at a three-month low and is poised to record its worst weekly performance this month. The US Treasury unexpectedly announced in mid-week that it will double the scale of longer-term treasury bond repurchases. Robin Brooks, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, said that the US government's move is the “clearest sign” so far, indicating that the US is following Japan's footsteps and moving towards depreciation of the local currency. He said the US government is “playing with fire.” US bonds rose for a while after the news was announced, but since then they have regained their gains. Gold and other precious metals were higher. Steven Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, said that reducing bond yields through repurchases will only put further pressure on the US dollar, but it will not solve the fundamental problem driving the rise in yield, that is, the fiscal deficit. (financemagnates)

1d ago

Kalshi applied to launch US stock index perpetual futures to further enter the traditional exchange market

Comparing news, the prediction market platform Kalshi submitted regulatory documents to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to apply for the launch of perpetual futures linked to stock indices to further expand from the prediction market to the traditional financial derivatives sector. According to the documents, Kalshi's proposed US500 perpetual futures will track the MerQube US large-cap index, which covers 500 large companies listed in the US. Perpetual futures have no expiration date, traders do not need to hold the underlying asset, and the contract continuously tracks the underlying price through a funding rate mechanism. At the end of May this year, Kalshi received approval to launch cryptocurrency perpetual futures, which was officially launched in June. The company then applied to launch perpetual futures for precious metals such as gold and silver, and now further applied for perpetual futures on copper and stock indices. Kalshi said that the global perpetual futures trading volume exceeded 90 trillion US dollars in 2025, and the nominal trading volume surpassed 1 billion US dollars a week after the launch of its own product. Kalshi's foray into perpetual futures has raised concerns on traditional exchanges. The stock prices of CME Group and Cboe Global Markets were previously pressured by the US approval of domestic perpetual futures, and CME even sued the federal court for related regulatory approvals. At the time of publication, CME was up about 1.26% and Cboe was up about 0.12%.

4d ago

Gold tokenization: How does regulation force gold to move onto the chain?

Source: Token Dispatch Author: Thejaswini M A Compiled by: Foresight News Original title: Gold tokenization, a financial revolution forced by regulations New York crowds, slow delivery, and Basel's “tight spell” — a dark battle for the London Treasury's ledger. In February 2025, the market anticipated that the US would soon introduce a tariff policy, and traders took gold from the Bank of England treasury and shipped it to New York. The waiting time for gold bar withdrawals has been extended from a few days to 4 to 8 weeks, and all withdrawal reservations are about full. Bank of England Deputy Governor for Market Affairs Dave Ramsden told reporters that the process of entering the building that morning was extremely cumbersome because a cargo truck was parked in the treasury area. Gold ownership certificates are traded on a daily basis at the London Gold Market, while physical gold is stored securely in vaults. However, during that period of uncertainty, the extractability of gold directly changed the price: the price of gold under the Bank of England dropped due to weeks of queues; the price of gold in commercial vaults rose, and buyers were willing to pay a premium so that physical gold could be immediately withdrawn and transported. On an ordinary trading day in May, the banks responsible for the gold clearing business in London reached $73.7 billion on the market, and there was no need to move physical gold throughout the process. As of the end of July, there were 9534 tons of gold in various gold stocks in London, worth 1.2 trillion US dollars, or about 762,000 gold bars. The clearing agency said that this mechanism already works — moving physical gold is expensive, and comes with security risks. This article will explore why the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has begun to develop regulatory rules for tokenized gold, and why the relevant regulations focus entirely on the ledger system. London is a global gold trading hub. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is an industry trade organization and is responsible for setting industry standards. The final settlement of the parties' debts and liabilities was completed by four clearing banks: HSBC, ICBC Standard Bank, J.P. Morgan Chase, and UBS Group. The electronic reconciliation clearing agency operated by the above banks is London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL, also known as AURUM). The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has been communicating with major banks to discuss how to regulate tokenized gold and whether such assets can be used as collateral in the wholesale market. Prior to that, the UK Financial Conduct Authority, the Bank of England, and the Prudential Supervisory Authority had jointly issued a report on May 18, 2026, suggesting that tokenized gold can be used as collateral for non-liquidated OTC derivatives. There are already precedents to follow in related fields. The UK Financial Conduct Authority issued a policy statement in April stating that all types of money market funds (including tokenized funds) are eligible to be collateral for non-liquidated transactions in accordance with the British version of the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (UK EMIR). Currently, a total of 16 institutions in the UK are carrying out tokenization-related pilot projects within the regulatory sandbox. The UK government estimates that tokenization technology could add £33 billion to the UK economy every year by 2035. The first tokenized government bond is expected to launch in early 2027, coinciding with the Bank of England upgrading its collateral system; by 2028, various types of digital ledgers are expected to be interconnected with the digital pound. There is a common opinion that London's promotion of gold tokenization is due to concerns about losing business to the Asian market. But the truth is that this technology was independently developed by the Local Clearing Bank of London. At the end of 2023, HSBC will split the standard 400-ounce gold bars in the London Treasury to generate small digital shares to facilitate transactions for institutional investors. The bank then launched a version for retail customers in Hong Kong, with a cumulative transaction volume of US$2.2 billion, but this innovation originated in London. The London gold market has four core functions: the first two are physical storage (treasury and security) and quality inspection. Quality verification also confirms that the purity of the gold is compliant; buyers do not need to re-check the molten gold. The token clearly can't do these two jobs; it can only do business based on physical infrastructure. Third function: Register ownership of gold. There is a consensus that the token performs very well in this regard and is inexpensive. The fourth function is credit business, which is also the key to the conflict. Tokenizing gold will make banks' existing credit systems irrelevant. With tokens, ownership of physical gold can be transferred instantly. Investors do not need to deposit gold with banks in exchange for convenient transaction channels. The vast majority of gold in the London market is held and traded on an unallocated account model. Customers do not own a specific number of gold bars; they only enjoy the corresponding number...

5d agoForesight News#Financial regulation #gold token

Teaser: US retail sales data for July will be released tonight. If stronger than expected, it will suppress the possibility of interest rate cuts

Comparative news is that after the US CPI and PPI data were released one after another this week, market sentiment has not been completely digested. Tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), we will also welcome the US retail sales data for July, known as scary data. The market currently expects retail sales to increase by only 0.1% month-on-month, and core retail sales (excluding highly volatile items such as automobiles) are also expected to be moderate. This data will directly reflect the will and purchasing power of US residents, and is a key weather vane for judging whether the economy has reached a soft landing or stalling. In the sensitive window where differences within the Federal Reserve have clearly intensified and international gold prices have retreated from the $4,400 per ounce mark, if the data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the narrative that the economy is still resilient, push up the dollar and suppress expectations of interest rate cuts; if it is significantly weaker than expected, it may increase concerns about the recession and further boost precious metals and risk aversion.

8d ago

Gold returns to 4,350 US dollars, and a new round of precious metals market begins?

Source: Groove BlockBeats Original title: Gold returns to $4,350, is the precious metals pullback over? The central bank's gold purchases have resumed, and the rebound also depends on the dollar and real interest rate points: · Sprott believes that the 2026 annuity bank decline is more like a cyclical correction in a long-term bull market. Gold rose above 4,350 US dollars/ounce on August 7. · Global central banks' net purchases in the second quarter were 289 tons, about five times the 57 tons after the first quarter correction, but the amount of money purchased in the first half of the year was still the lowest since 2022. · Silver is expected to be in short supply for the sixth year in a row, but industrial demand is slowing, and the dollar, real interest rates, and liquidity will still amplify short-term fluctuations. Sprott Asset Management recently released a precious metals report, characterizing the retracement of gold and silver since 2026 as a cyclical correction in a long-term bull market rather than the end of the market since 2025. As of August 7, gold had once risen above $4,350 per ounce, a seven-week high. Previously, the price of gold stabilized in the 4,000—4100 US dollar area, indicating that safe-haven demand and financial sentiment have begun to recover. The question this report is trying to answer is straightforward: after gold rose 64.58% and silver rose 147.95% in 2025, the obvious retracement in the first seven months of 2026 actually meant a reversal of trend or a rebalancing of leverage and financial sentiment after clearing up? As of July 31, gold closed at $4046.15 per ounce, down 6.33% during the year; silver closed at $57.60 per ounce, down 19.63% during the year. Although both varieties are down from the beginning of the year, prices are still significantly higher than a year ago. For investors, what they really need to observe is not whether there is a correction in gold and silver, but whether the long-term demand that supported the previous round of growth has changed. Gold and silver rose sharply in 2025, and there was a marked retracement after hitting a high in early 2026, but as of the end of July, the price of gold stabilized around $4,000, which was still higher than a year ago. Futures capital began to flow back. Sprott's judgment was not that precious metals would not continue to fall, but rather that this round of retracement had not destroyed long-term support factors. Annuity banks rose too much in 2025, and continued to reach record highs in early 2026, and the market has accumulated more leverage and profit margins. Sprott believes that the March geopolitical conflict unexpectedly tightened global liquidity, and some leveraged investors were forced to sell gold to raise cash; after entering the second quarter, the US-Iran situation eased, oil prices fell, the dollar strengthened, and expectations that US interest rates might remain high for a longer period of time further suppressed precious metals prices. By early summer, some selling pressure was gradually released, and gold regained physical demand and central bank buying support around $4,000, then rose above $4,350 on August 7. Silver fluctuated more sharply, but it also stabilized in the $55-60 area, and once rose again above $60. Futures positions are also showing signs of a return. According to Saxo Bank's compilation of CFTC data, as of the week ending August 4, hedge funds had increased their exposure to precious metals before gold completed technical breakthroughs. Net speculative long positions in silver futures increased 32% month-on-month, and net long gold positions also continued to rise, reaching their highest level since January. Meanwhile, speculators cut back about $13 billion in a week, the biggest weekly decline in six years. However, the overall dollar position is still clearly too large, and it is not yet possible to judge that the dollar trend has reversed based on this. COT data is more suitable for observing short-term financial sentiment. It shows that precious metals are attracting speculative capital again, but it cannot alone prove that a new round of bull market has begun. As of August 4, net longings of gold managed funds rose to 132,000 lots, reaching the highest level since January; net longings of silver increased 32% month-on-month to about 11,000 lots, but overall positions remained relatively low. The central bank made a net purchase of 289 tons of gold in the second quarter, but demand in the first half of the year still did not fully recover. Long-term support for gold is still inseparable from central banks and sovereign capital. According to data from the World Gold Council, the net purchase amount of global central banks reached 289 tons in the second quarter of 2026, about five times the revised 57 tons in the first quarter, an increase of 62% over the previous year, and the highest level in the second quarter since statistics were available. However, there is another side to this set of data. Due to the drastic reduction in the scale of purchases in the first quarter, the central bank's total net purchase amount for the first half of 2026 was 345 tons, or 20...

10d ago22#Baiyin #precious metals #gold

Bank of America: CTA US debt bears are still high. Tonight's CPI may become an amplifier of volatility in the bond market

Comparatively, before the US CPI was announced, a technical risk that was easily overlooked in the bond market was heating up. Bank of America Securities pointed out in its latest report that the trend-tracking CTA remained high in US Treasury futures shortages after the unexpected weakening of US non-farm payrolls data. US bond futures were close to triggering bears' recovery last week, but as yields rebounded from a low level, models showed that these short positions have yet to be withdrawn. CTA generally refers to systematic trend tracking of funds. This type of fund does not mainly judge inflation, finance, or the Federal Reserve's policy itself, but rather trades assets such as stock indices, US bonds, foreign exchange, gold, and crude oil based on price trends, volatility, and stop-loss thresholds. Simply put, the more clear the market trend, the more likely CTAs are to follow the trend and increase positions; once the price reverses break through the model threshold, they may also concentrate on reducing or making up positions. Therefore, CTAs are more like market amplifiers. They are usually not the starting point for market direction, but they may reinforce fluctuations after key data is released. According to the Bank of America, 10-year US bond futures are still in a bearish trend. The current price is about 108.72. The short-term short recovery trigger level is around 109.41, and the higher trigger level is around 110.21. In other words, if the CPI is weaker than expected, driving up the price of US bonds and the decline in yields, CTA may be forced to make up for the shortfall, thereby further amplifying the rebound in the bond market; if the CPI is strong and US bond yields rise, CTA bears may remain in the market. The report points out that macro data will determine the direction, and CTA positions will determine whether the market is amplified by mechanical capital. Since US bond yields directly affect tech stock valuations, the dollar, and gold, the impact of CPI on cross-asset markets will also be amplified tonight. If yields decline rapidly, growth stocks and gold may be supported; if inflation data becomes strong again, overvalued technology stocks and precious metals will face repricing pressure.

10d ago

Citigroup: There is still room for growth in gold and silver. Geographic and macroeconomic developments will restore demand for precious metals investment

Comparing the news, Citigroup Research said it believes that the upward trade in precious metals is not over yet, and that silver will continue to follow the direction of gold and become a more aggressive upward expression due to higher volatility and elasticity. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz finally cools down and the Federal Reserve's position becomes less hawkish, demand for precious metals investment will continue to recover. Recent market conditions have provided a background for this judgment. The settlement price of COMEX August gold futures rose 0.49% to 4,383 US dollars/ounce; silver futures fell 0.5% to 64.769 US dollars/ounce on the same day, ending two days of continuous gains. Citi believes that the short-term pullback will not change the position of silver as a high-beta asset for gold. If geographical risk mitigates and pushes capital back into precious metals, silver will have a chance to rise to 95 US dollars/ounce in 2027. However, Citi also retained the risk scenario. The bank believes that silver still has a 20% chance of falling to 50 US dollars/ounce, indicating that current precious metals trading is still highly dependent on interest rate expectations, dollar trends, and geographical risk. For the market, gold is still the core asset for defense and interest rate cut expectations, while silver is more suitable for expressing a flexible market after risk appetite recovers.

10d ago

Websea has launched gold and silver CFD contracts with up to 500x leverage

In comparison, according to the Websea platform, Gold XAU and Silver XAG CFD contracts were launched on August 11, both of which support up to 500x leverage. Among them, XAU and XAG correspond to international gold and silver trading codes respectively. Users can participate in precious metal price fluctuations through USDT-denominated CFD contracts without actually holding the underlying asset. Websea said it will continue to expand more CFD trading varieties in the future in line with market demand, liquidity and risk assessments. The relevant contract parameters will be adjusted dynamically according to the market risk situation, subject to the platform announcement. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

11d agoburnking

Castle Securities is bullish on gold for the first time this year. The five major catalysts may push gold prices to start a new cycle

Comparing news, Citadel Securities (Citadel Securities) strategist Scott Rubner (Scott Rubner) recommended that investors allocate structured gold positions for the first time since 2026, believing that the current precious metals market is forming one of the most attractive upward opportunities in months. Rubner said that the upward momentum for gold comes from five major factors: the Federal Reserve's policy is shifting to rising expectations, continued gold purchases by central banks around the world, quantitative fund short recovery, bullish signals from the options market, and the possibility that retail funds previously flowing to AI assets will return back into the precious metals market. The recent cooling in the US job market has further strengthened the upward logic of gold. The number of people employed in the US fell unexpectedly in July, and the employment data for the previous two months dropped sharply. The market lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its austerity policy, weakening the dollar and boosting demand for gold. Currently, the price of gold remains above 4,300 US dollars/ounce, and the latest transaction price is around 4355 US dollars. Gold prices rose more than 7% last week, the biggest weekly increase since the end of January this year. Rubner pointed out that as of August 6, the Commodity Trading Advisory Fund (CTA) still holds net short positions in gold and silver. If the price of gold continues to break through, trend trading funds may be forced to make up for bears and switch to buying, further amplifying the upward trend. Furthermore, there are positive signs in the options market. Castle Securities said that the implied volatility of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world's largest gold ETF, has rebounded, and the bearish/bullish option bias has reversed its extreme level since February of this year, indicating increased bullish sentiment in the market. At the same time, Rubner stressed that gold purchases by central banks around the world are still an important support for the long-term rise in gold. In particular, the central bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves. In July of this year, the Central Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 21st consecutive month, further boosting the recovery in demand from the official sector. He believes that as US fiscal pressure increases, dollar credit discussions heat up, and geopolitical risks persist, the appeal of gold as a reserve asset is increasing. If the upward trend is further confirmed, retail capital, which has been dormant for a long time, may flow back into the precious metals market, providing additional impetus for gold prices.

12d ago