Comparatively, a Washington state court has ordered the prediction market platform Kalshi to stop providing prediction services involving sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, and science because it violates the state's gambling laws. The court also asked Kalshi to implement geofencing technology by September 2 to prevent Washington users from accessing related services.
![[Comparative Daily News Picks] DeepSeek V4 Pro official API update: multiple test performance is close to Fable 5; SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.6, which is the same as GPT-5.6 Sol Max; Bitcoin mining company MARA secured 18,750 BTC to obtain a loan of 750 million US dollars to expand AI and energy infrastructure; the US core inflation performance in July was moderate, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates eased somewhat](https://images.bitpush.news/2026/07/special_cn-20260722-178475937961478878.png:WechatIMG2656.png)
Daily AI · Cryptography · Macro · Market News, Bitpush helps you draw the key points ↓ AI · News [DeepSeek V4 Pro Official API Update: Multiple Test Performance Close to Fable 5] Tweet news. On August 13, Beijing time, DeepSeek officially changed the v4 Pro from the preview version. On the official pricing page, the model version number has been updated to DEEPSEEK-V4-PRO-0813. As can be seen from the evaluation comparison table released by the official group, the official version of DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek V4-PRO-0813) was close to the Fable 5 level in many tests, and the capabilities of the previous preview version were greatly improved. DeepSeek V4 Pro is significantly more expensive than V4-Flash. Based on the calculation for each 1M token, 0.025 yuan is entered in the cache hit, 3 yuan is entered in the cache mismatch, and 6 yuan is output. In comparison, V4-Flash is 0.02 yuan, 1 yuan, and 2 yuan, respectively. [SpaceXAI launches GROK 4.6, same score as GPT-5.6 Sol Max] In comparison, SpaceXAI officially released the next generation model Grok 4.6, which scored 61 points in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index comprehensive evaluation, which is on par with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol Max. The model focuses on strengthening long-range operating agents, complex programming, and intellectual work capabilities. [Wall Street Journal: Apple Seeks New Agreements with Publishers to Use Their Content to Develop Artificial Intelligence Voice Assistant Siri] Comparing the news. According to the Wall Street Journal: Sources revealed, Apple (AAPL.O) is seeking a new agreement with publishers to develop Siri, an artificial intelligence voice assistant using its content. [SpaceX rose nearly 12% in the intraday period, and Damo is optimistic about its two structural advantages] Comparing news, SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose nearly 12% in the intraday period. The rise was driven by a Morgan Stanley research report, which believes the open market has seriously underestimated the value of the SpaceX AI enterprise platform. Investors are no longer viewing SpaceX only as an aerospace and satellite hardware company, but increasingly as a vertically integrated technology giant with autonomous data, global network infrastructure, and cutting-edge AI models. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said that recent products launched by the SpaceXAI division show a broader software ecosystem, of which GrokBot is early evidence of this platform. The platform combines unique real-time data, vertically integrated computing power, connectivity, and intelligence, and these values are currently not fully priced in the market. The report points out that SpaceX has two structural advantages: one is a real-time data pipeline formed from telemetry data from X and Starlink satellite networks; the other is a “real world” moat combining low-cost computing power with global communication networks. Musk previously said that Grok 4.7 will surpass all current models, and that SpaceX's unique and powerful training data gives it an advantage in real-world engineering capabilities. Crypto · Market [Bitcoin mining company MARA secures $750 million in loans to expand AI and energy infrastructure] Comparing news, Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings disclosed in SEC documents for the latest quarter that the company has pledged 18,750 BTC to guarantee two Bitcoin mortgage loans, with a total loan principal of 750 million US dollars. The additional capital will be used mainly for general corporate purposes and support MARA's acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power. The deal is worth approximately $1.5 billion, and Long Ridge owns a gas power plant with an estimated installed capacity of 505 MW and more than 1,600 acres of industrial land in Ohio, USA. MARA plans to further develop the local area as a base for Bitcoin mining, AI, and high-performance computing infrastructure. [CFTC emergency order requires Kalshi to continue operating, citing the risk of closing Bitcoin positions] Comparing news, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requires that the forecasting market platform Kalshi continue to operate its exchange in accordance with normal business practices and “business...
Comparatively, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requires that the forecasting market platform Kalshi continue to operate its exchange in accordance with normal business practices and the core principles of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC previously determined that New York State's attempt to prevent the platform from operating constituted a market emergency. The CFTC said that forcibly closing a Bitcoin price position up to the end of 2026 could trigger traders to simultaneously cancel positions in Bitcoin and other assets, and expose arbitrators holding opposite positions to one-way risk. The order also lists contracts such as federal funds interest rates, transit in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic downturn. A ruling signed by Connecticut District Court Judge Vernon D. Oliver found that Kalshi sports contracts were not swaps; even if they were swaps, federal law would not take precedence over Connecticut gambling regulations.
Comparing the news, on-chain detective ZachXBT revealed that the threat actor codenamed “Tiffany” is suspected of being involved in multiple crypto asset thefts, gambling with victims' stolen funds in crypto casinos, and has also made phone calls to taunt the victims. The platform Shuffle has frozen the relevant accounts based on evidence submitted by ZachXBT; Tiffany previously shared a Connecticut search and seizure order, which was dated earlier than some of the incidents involved in this case. ZachXBT has obtained chat records, recordings, and on-chain evidence, and predicts that the person may face further legal consequences. The threat actor is also linked to the John Daghita (Lick) case, which allegedly stole over $46 million in crypto assets from the US government's seizure wallet.
Comparing news, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iranian crypto exchanges Shelbit and Aban Tether on Friday, accusing them of assisting entities such as the Revolutionary Guard to evade sanctions and transfer funds. OFAC also sanctioned the Shelbit operator and the companies it controls in multiple countries. According to the Ministry of Finance, wallets linked to the Revolutionary Guard transferred more than $1 million in cryptocurrencies to Shelbit and received more than $2 million from the exchange. An earlier Reuters investigation showed that Shelbit has processed at least $4 billion in transactions involving Iranian gambling sites and the Revolutionary Guard in the past two years, of which at least $676 million went to Binance. Binance responded that Shelbit did not open an account on its platform and that the relevant user accounts have been frozen and reported. Additionally, Aban Tether is accused of processing multi-million dollar transactions for sanctioned platforms such as Nobitex.
Comparatively, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently sent a letter to regulated platforms requesting that the forecast market stop using American-style “money line” odds. The so-called “money line” is a common “+/-” format in gambling — for example, “+200” means betting $100 to win $200, and “-150” means you need to bet $150 to win $100. According to the CFTC, this statement is deceptive and induces users to view it as gambling rather than an investment. Research shows that such odds tend to encourage risk-taking. CFTC Chairman Selig recently pushed for the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over the prediction market and sued multiple states to maintain its position. Kalshi said it would cooperate with the rectification, but Polymarket did not respond. Currently, the dispute over jurisdiction between prediction markets and state-level gaming laws continues.
Comparing news, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that Taj Tarsha, founder of the NFT marketplace project Few and Far, has been formally charged with securities fraud and telecom fraud. The prosecution alleges that it raised investment funds through misrepresentation and used part of the funds for personal use, including gambling and luxury spending. According to the lawsuit documents, after the 2023 company audit revealed abnormal use of funds, Tarsha allegedly provided misleading explanations to investors, claiming that the relevant expenses met the project development needs and continued to maintain the illusion of project operation. Subsequently, most of Few and Far's employees left, and project development basically came to a standstill. Additionally, Tarsha is also accused of receiving nearly $1 million in personal revenue from the company's capital through undisclosed bonuses and high-paying arrangements. Some of these bonuses were not disclosed to investors and the company's co-founders. Tarsha raised more than $10 million from at least 67 investors through the sale of approximately 95 million FAR token interests, the prosecution said. However, after receiving funding, it is suspected that it did not invest in project construction as promised, but instead used investor funds for online casinos, purchase speculative crypto assets, Miami apartment loans, interior decoration, and personal DJ activities. The US Department of Justice said that crypto startup project financing does not mean that traditional financial regulation can be circumvented, and investors are entitled to real information on the use of funds. Tarsha was previously arrested on June 6, 2026, and the case will be tried by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
Author: Long Yue, Wall Street News Original title: “Influencer Broker” Robinhood's revenue structure has changed dramatically: It is predicted that market revenue has surpassed stock trading. This brokerage firm, which started with zero commissions, is turning gambling and betting on elections into a big business. Robinhood released its second-quarter earnings report last week, predicting that market revenue surged more than tenfold year-on-year to US$156 million, accounting for 20% of total transaction revenue, surpassing stocks and cryptocurrencies for the first time, becoming the second-largest trading business after options. This change is less than two years since Robinhood officially entered the forecast market. What does this number mean? Based on data for the second quarter, Robinhood predicts that the annualized revenue of the market business has exceeded 600 million US dollars. Mizuho Securities stock research analyst Dan Dolev said bluntly: “Users on Robinhood just love to gamble and predict where the market is in their hands. It's the perfect alternative to cryptocurrency because it gives the brain a sense of reward quicker — you don't have to wait.” From stock trading to betting on the World Cup: What are users chasing The logic of predicting the market is simple: users bet on the outcome of real-world events in the form of “yes/no”, including World Cup matches, elections, and even the weather. This instant, simple gameplay is highly compatible with Robinhood's retail user base. Over the timeline, Robinhood's transaction revenue structure has been shifting along with market hot spots. Stock and options revenue surged during the 2021 meme boom; cryptocurrencies then took over, and memes such as Dogecoin led to a surge in crypto trading revenue; until the end of 2024, cryptocurrencies remained Robinhood's biggest source of trading revenue. The turning point came around the 2024 US election. A sharp rise in market popularity is predicted, and a large influx of capital is betting on the election results. Kalshi was approved to operate legally in the US that year, paving the way for other platforms to follow suit. Robinhood then launched its first event contract at the end of 2024, allowing users to bet on the results of the US presidential election, and then launched categories such as sporting events one after another. The peak in revenue in the second quarter was largely due to the World Cup. Compass Point stock research analyst Ed Engel pointed out in the research report that this made the June and July trading volume “unusually strong.” However, he also mentioned that the US rugby season will begin this fall, which is expected to bring a new round of boost. Self-built trading platform, “split” with Kalshi Robinhood initially did not have its own predictive market trading platform, but instead directed user orders to Kalshi. The two parties split the cost of 2 cents per contract. This pattern is changing. In June of this year, Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group jointly established the prediction market trading platform Rothera and began transferring some orders (including World Cup-related bets) to the platform for execution. The fee structure was adjusted accordingly. Robinhood currently charges users up to 1 cent/contract, plus a fee that varies depending on the execution platform — if the order is still sent to Kalshi, Kalshi charges an additional 1 cent/contract. The result was a marked decline in the interdependence between the two companies. According to Artemis data, the share of Robinhood orders in Kalshi's trading volume fell from nearly 50% in the same period last year to 17.5% in the second quarter of this year. Dan Dolev believes that using Rothera will give Robinhood “more control over the forecasting market business.” But at the same time, he pointed out that since Robinhood needs to provide incentives to users, the difference in profit margins between the two models will not be too big. Industry landscape: Kalshi is still the boss. Despite Robinhood's strong momentum, Kalshi's dominant position in predicting the market remains unshaken. According to Artemis data, Kalshi's monthly nominal trading volume in June this year was about $33 billion, Polymarket was $14 billion, while Rothera (who also executed transactions for Robinhood and some market makers) was $2.1 billion. At the income level, Kalshi's annualized revenue for June this year...
Comparatively speaking, the founder of Qiaoshui Foundation, Ray Dalio issued the harshest market warning in the “CEO Diary” podcast, bluntly saying that AI fanaticism has pushed the market into a bubble zone similar to 1929 and 2000. When the host mentioned Jeremy Grantham's previous claim that the current is the biggest investment bubble in US history, Dalio directly responded: He's right. Dalio explains the core contradiction of the bubble mechanism with a simple deduction — investors buy shares of an AI company with $100 and use this as collateral to borrow money. When the market reverses and everyone needs cash at the same time, the price may collapse to $25, and the loan still needs to be repaid. Dalio emphasized that wealth is not equal to money. You have seen many people become rich, but wealth cannot be used for consumption. You have to sell your wealth to get money. The current market is more like gambling with an inexperienced influx of leveraged ETF investors. Dalio also pointed out that there are two major forces that usually break through bubbles — rising interest rates drive up the cost of debt financing, and a surge in stock issuance. Currently, the latter is a reality: SpaceX was listed in June but its stock price broke out, and S&P expects its free cash flow to remain negative until 2029; Anthropic has secretly submitted a listing application and appeared at a valuation of nearly $1 trillion as early as October; OpenAI has also submitted an application, with a valuation target of over $1 trillion. Dalio's bigger warning was not directed at the market itself, but rather the political and geographical conflict after the bubble bursts — Britain's change of six prime ministers in seven years is a symptom of running out of government funds and voters attacking each other on how to raise funds. The bursting of the AI bubble could be the trigger for political turmoil at the end of the 80-year cycle. Wall Street institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Apollo also recently sent a similar signal, indicating that there is a profit bubble in technology stocks, and the 60/40 portfolio strategy that worked for 40 years has failed.
Comparing news, the Thai Immigration Service recently issued a warning, pointing out that while the cross-border trade of Buddhist cards is booming, it is being used as a money laundering channel by the Grey Capital Network. From online gambling and telecom fraud to drug smuggling, some illegal proceeds are being disguised as legal commercial income through methods such as Buddhist card sales, fake auctions, temple leasing, and cryptocurrency peer-to-peer transfers.