超级碗 · 180

[Comparative Daily News Picks] OpenAI has found an optimization plan that can cut inference costs in half; the US will lift export controls on Anthropic's Fable AI model; Trump submits 927 pages of “gold absorption” financial reports exceeding 1 billion US dollars, with revenue related to MemeCoin reaching 635 million US dollars; WSJ: Iran says if negotiations fail to obtain sole control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will close the channel again

Daily AI · Cryptography · Macro · Market News, Bitpush helps you draw priorities ↓ AI · News [OpenAI finds an optimization solution to cut inference costs in half]. According to The Information report, OpenAI engineers revealed internally that the company has successfully reduced the inference (operation) cost of the AI model by more than 50% through a series of new underlying system optimization techniques. This breakthrough was mainly due to increased utilization of server resources, rather than relying entirely on new computing chips, and even reduced the demand for Nvidia GPUs without logging in to the ChatGPT scenario to hundreds of blocks at one point. [The US will lift export controls on Anthropic's Fable AI model on Tuesday] According to news, the US Department of Commerce is expected to lift export controls and access restrictions on Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models owned by artificial intelligence company Anthropic on the evening of the 30th local time. Previously, the US government ordered the mandatory suspension of the right to use these two advanced models on June 12, citing national security risks. [Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5] On Twitter, Anthropic announced the launch of Claude Sonnet 5. Safety tests show Claude Sonnet 5 is an improvement over Sonnet 4.6. The model is live on all Claude packages and is available for use through Claude Code and Claude platforms. The model's preferential pricing is $2 per million tokens for input and $10 for output until August 31, then it will be raised to $3 and $15. [AI chip startup Etched raised $800 million, received VC support from Jane Street and TSMC] In comparison, AI chip startup Etched completed about $800 million in financing. Investors include quantitative trading giant Jane Street and venture capital institutions related to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which is currently testing its AI inference chip Products are also scheduled to begin shipping to some customers this summer. At the same time, sales contracts totaling about 1 billion US dollars have been signed, but no specific customers have been disclosed. The company was founded in 2022 and is positioned as NVIDIA's potential competitor in the field of AI computing power chips. It focuses on designing customized chip architectures for large model inference scenarios, and cooperates with TSMC to develop “low voltage inference” technology to reduce energy consumption and cooling pressure. The current round of financing has previously disclosed about 500 million US dollars in valuation financing information, with the participation of Stripes, Peter Thiel related funds, and various quantitative agencies. Jane Street allegedly invested more than 100 million US dollars, and additional investments will be made later. (Bloomberg) Crypto Market [Trump submits 927 pages of financial reports “absorbing money” of over 1 billion US dollars, with revenue related to meme coins reaching 635 million US dollars]. Comparing news, the US Government Ethics Office released Trump's 2025 financial disclosure report, which has a total of 927 pages, showing that its assets and revenue cover various fields such as digital assets, gifts, and authorized income. Among them, Trump received more than $580 million in revenue through the crypto project “World Liberty Financial” related to his family; he also earned another $635 million by selling memes. In addition to digital asset earnings, Trump also revealed that he received more than 80 million US dollars in revenue from settlement agreements with various media companies, and obtained millions of dollars in revenue by authorizing overseas real estate developers to use their names through his own companies. It also claimed to have received more than $370,000 in gifts, including tickets to sporting events such as the World Cup (10 tickets) and Super Bowl. Additionally, a statue worth 250,000 dollars was received to commemorate the image of him raising his fist after being assassinated in Pennsylvania. [The “Big Seven” index of US stocks fell 8.9% in June, the worst monthly performance since March 2025] In comparison, the “Big Seven” index of US stocks fell 8.9% in June, the worst monthly performance since March 2025. [The financing list for the first half of 2026 was announced, and Kalshi and Polymarket raised a total of 1.8 billion US dollars] Comparing news, according to statistics, 2...

52d agoWendy#Compare Daily Picks

Trump's 927-page financial report “sucks in money” over 1 billion US dollars: World Cup tickets and settlement expenses are all in the pocket

Comparatively, the US Government Ethics Office released Trump's 2025 financial disclosure report, which has a total of 927 pages, showing that its assets and revenue cover various fields such as digital assets, gifts, and authorized income. Among them, Trump received more than $580 million in revenue through the crypto project “World Liberty Financial” related to his family; he also earned another $635 million by selling memes. In addition to digital asset earnings, Trump also revealed that he received more than 80 million US dollars in revenue from settlement agreements with various media companies, and obtained millions of dollars in revenue by authorizing overseas real estate developers to use their names through his own companies. It also claimed to have received more than $370,000 in gifts, including tickets to sporting events such as the World Cup (10 tickets) and Super Bowl. Additionally, a statue worth 250,000 dollars was received to commemorate the image of him raising his fist after being assassinated in Pennsylvania.

52d agoWendy

Predicting a market turnover of 3.3 billion US dollars, why is half of the capital betting on unpopularity?

Author: Oluwapelumi Adejumo Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News Original title: World Cup prediction market carnival: Total transaction volume of 3.3 billion US dollars, half of the capital hit an unpopular TL; DR: Polymarket's total World Cup contract transaction volume exceeded 3.3 billion US dollars, far exceeding this year's Super Bowl forecast market trading volume; France and Argentina lead the championship and final seat market. Traders are betting on the two teams to repeat the 2022 finals match; the market has 1.6 billion US dollars of trading capital to win Unpopular teams with less than 1%. The World Cup brought one of the largest sports traffic in history to the prediction market, but behind high transaction amounts, industry data showed an abnormal market structure. The total number of World Cup-related contracts on the Polymarket platform has exceeded 3.3 billion US dollars, significantly ahead of the predicted market volume of 1.4 billion US dollars for this year's Super Bowl. This gap intuitively reflects the rapid penetration of the event trading circuit into mainstream sporting events: soccer covers the global market, the tournament cycle is longer, and the trading window obtained by the platform is much longer than that of a single final match. Polymarket not only ushered in a market explosion, but Kalshi and other predictive trading platforms also saw a sharp rise in football-related contract trading volume, such as winning or losing matches and winning the World Cup. However, the funds were not concentrated on the team with the highest chance of winning the championship. As the tournament enters the round of 32, the forecast market is polarized: top popular teams compete fiercely, while there is still plenty of money betting on underdog teams with extremely low win rates. France and Argentina lead the market, and the market is betting that France will be the most popular to win the 2026 World Cup, followed by Argentina. According to Polymarket data, France has an implied probability of winning the championship 23%, Argentina 21%, and the two 2022 Qatar World Cup final teams are in the top two; Spain is third with 11%, England is fourth with 10%, and Brazil is fifth with 6%. The contract trend for a place in the finals is highly similar. France ranked first with an implied probability of advancing to the finals with a 39% chance, followed by Argentina with 38%, and Spain ranked third with 23%. Market pricing reflects the predictions of many traders, and the final story where Messi led Argentina to the championship four years ago may be played out again. The volume of trading capital of popular teams intuitively reflects market attention: Argentina won the championship contract of US$81 million, France US$77 million, Portugal US$76 million, Spain US$68 million, and England US$61 million. The data is sufficient to prove that there is strong demand for transactions with popular targets, but this does not explain the market's unbalanced funding structure. $1.6 billion of capital poured into underdog teams and about $1.6 billion in trading capital betting on teams with a probability of winning the championship of only 1% or less. This capital accounts for two-thirds of the total turnover of contracts to win the championship, even though these teams have little chance of winning the championship in theory. Many underdog teams have remained high in historical transactions, with Côte d'Ivoire trading at US$101 million, Mexico at US$97 million, Egypt at US$90 million, Cape Verde at US$87 million, and Morocco at US$82 million. There is a serious disconnect between trading volume and probability of winning, revealing the unique characteristics of the prediction market. The popularity of a contract does not mean that current traders are generally optimistic about this result; it only indicates that a large number of transactions occurred when the odds did not change drastically in the early stages of the tournament. In addition to this, some holdings stem from simple unpopular speculation, fans' emotional purchases, hedging arbitrage, collusion orders, or historical positions that users have not closed for a long time. As a result, some targets appear to be actively traded, but in fact, they are completely out of touch with current market expectations. Traditional sports betting resets odds according to market conditions, and predicts that market contracts will continue to trade until settlement or user closes positions, and capital will be stored for a long time in unpopular team positions that are no longer favored by the market. This characteristic is particularly prominent in this World Cup market. Market differentiation can be seen more clearly compared to top hits. Buying a combination of five popular teams from France, Argentina, Spain, England, and Portugal now costs only $0.72. As long as any team wins the championship, you can redeem $1. The deal reflects a high concentration of market confidence, yet billions of dollars are still scattered over other unpopular targets. From this perspective, the World Cup trading list is not only a ranking of the probability of winning, but also a complete record of traders' operations throughout the cycle: timing of entry, positions that have been put on hold for a long time, and liquidity that has not been fully settled. The prediction market as a whole ushered in full prosperity, and the World Cup sports market is driving the entire prediction circuit to accelerate institutionalization...

53d agoburnking#World cup #Predicting the market

With 100 million dollars of capital leveraging trillion in market capitalization, how did AI stocks play tricks in the coin industry?

Author: Plus 6 Original title: 100 million dollars speculated out a market value of several trillion dollars. This year's AI stock market capitalization is beginning to be popular. Low circulation, big story, and high market value are becoming common features of this round of financial market speculation. It's been less than half a year since Smart Spectrum rang the bell on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and at one point its stock price rose 25 times. However, if you look at its share structure, you'll find a more critical, yet easily overlooked figure: in the early days of listing, only about 17.35 million shares were actually freely traded on the market, accounting for less than 4% of the total share capital. A company with a market capitalization of HKD trillion, the daily trading chip pool is actually only in the amount of HK$340 billion. This is a typical but not unique case, and can even be said to be the epitome of this round of market gameplay. SpaceX went public ten days ago, with a valuation of 1.77 trillion US dollars and only 4.3% of publicly traded shares. In order to coincide with its listing, NASDAQ directly abolished the 10% minimum public shareholding threshold implemented for decades. SPCX's market capitalization exceeded 2 trillion US dollars, but the daily trading volume was only about 100 million US dollars. Cerebras, an American AI chip company, sold only about 15% of its issued shares at the time of its May IPO, rising to more than double the issue price on the first day. Figma, the sum of the issuance and sale of old shares was less than 10% of the total share capital, up 250% on the first day. Low circulation, big story, high market value. The crypto market played with the structure for several years and is now being completely replicated by the traditional stock market. US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A shares have a similar structure at the same time, and the narrative extends from AI, chips, and big models to stablecoins. The era of pricing based on financial reports came to an end in February 2000. A hand puppet dog made of socks appeared in a Super Bowl commercial. It was a 30-second ad that PETS.com bought for $1.2 million. At the time, it earned less than $6 million a year and lost more than $60 million. Nine months later, the company liquidated, and the sock hand puppet became the most classic tombstone of the Internet bubble. The market lessons of that generation were written into almost every investment textbook: valuations without income support are bubbles, and narratives cannot replace financial reports. For the next twenty years, this lesson dominated the market. DCF, PE, PEG, free cash flow discounts, and pricing methods based on financial data have become orthodox. Buffett was re-enshrined after the 2008 financial crisis. “Buy without looking at financial reports” has become synonymous with speculation. But if we look at the new tech circuit from 2025 to 2026 today, we'll find a fact: the most sought-after companies in these industries are actually losing money. For example, CoreWeave, an AI computing power infrastructure company invested by Nvidia, with revenue of $16 million in 2022 and $5.1 billion in 2025, a 300-fold increase in three years. Revenue grew at an impressive rate, but net loss also widened from $31 million to $1.2 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the company had revenue of $2.1 billion, net loss of $740 million, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 10.7 billion dollars. According to traditional banks' credit standards, such balance sheets are not healthy. However, once it went public, its stock price rose 190%. The situation with Nebius is similar. The company, formerly known as Russia's Yandex, split and switched to AI cloud services. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $399 million, up 684% year over year, but adjusted net loss was still $100 million. Over the past 12 months, its share price has risen by more than 510%. Turn your gaze back to the Chinese market. Smart Spectrum's revenue for the full year of 2025 was 724 million yuan, about 100 million US dollars, but the net loss was 3.182 billion yuan, 4.4 times the revenue. In other words, for every dollar it earns, it spends far more than $1 on computing power and R&D. The AI Hong Kong stock MiniMax, which was listed in the same batch, rose 109% on the first day, and surged more than 700% at one point. Annual revenue of $790.38 million, or about 550 million yuan, is less than Smart Spectrum. Similarly, the Hong Kong-stock GPU company Bizao Technology, A-share domestic GPU Mu Xi shares, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board MoorThread rose 120%, 693%, and 425% respectively on the first day of listing. These new stocks, which had astonishing gains, were also in a state of serious losses or no profit. If you look at these companies using PE, many of them don't even have calculation prerequisites because profits are negative. On PS, the smart spectrum is over 1200...

59d agoburnking#AI #US stocks #US stock topics

World Cup pushes forecasting market trading volume to record high, Bernstein says Robinhood may benefit

Comparing the news, Bernstein said Robinhood is expected to usher in a “strong tailwind” as the predicted market volume reached a new high during the World Cup. According to the data, the FIFA World Cup initially predicted that the daily trading volume rose from US$2.2 billion on June 11 to US$4.8 billion on June 12, a record high, surpassing the US$1.4 billion transaction volume during the previous Super Bowl. Analysts note that since launch, the prediction market has become one of Robinhood's fastest growing revenue lines. The agency predicts that Robinhood predicts that market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, an increase of about 286% year over year, and is expected to account for 17% of transaction-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026. Bernstein believes that Robinhood's partnership with Rothera, an exchange and clearing agency regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is one of its competitive advantages. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has traded around 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing close to the total trading volume. Analysts say Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capabilities. Its large user base, $0.01 commission per contract, and strategies such as up to 50% off fees for Gold members help drive user engagement. Furthermore, Bernstein said that competition on the predictive market circuit is expanding, including Polymarket's launch of private corporate event contracts and Kalshi's launch of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The agency anticipates that the World Cup will bring more than $3 billion in additional betting volume to the forecast market and drive a $5 billion to $10 billion increase in consumer transactions across the industry. (The Block) This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

68d agoburnking

Researchers support the Ethereum Foundation: its role is not to “pull ETH,” but to gradually make itself less important

Comparing news, blockchain researcher and investor William Mougayar wrote an article defending the Ethereum Foundation, saying that the outside world had misunderstood the foundation's position for a long time and that it “is accurately completing its mission.” According to Mougayar, ETH, the Ethereum network, and the Ethereum Foundation itself are three different entities: ETH is an asset, Ethereum is a shared computing infrastructure, and the Foundation is a non-profit organization responsible for driving the development of the protocol, and one of its goals is even to “gradually make the founders less important.” He pointed out that many critics want the foundation to take on responsibilities such as marketing ETH and attracting institutional funding, but this is equivalent to “expecting the IETF to advertise the Super Bowl for TCP/IP.” He stressed that the Ethereum Foundation is currently on the “subtraction route” to strengthen the network by promoting protocol upgrades, funding underlying research, and reducing its centralized influence. Recently, the Ethereum Foundation has been criticized by the community for selling ETH, de-staking, and less public communication. According to the data, it has completed its third OTC sale to BitMine Immersion Technologies this month, selling a total of about 25,000 ETH worth about $47 million. In addition, the Foundation recently released more than 38,000 ETH staked, with a total value of nearly $90 million.

90d ago

67% of profits go to 0.1% accounts: In the forecast market that claims to “help you pay your rent”, ordinary users are continuing to lose money

Authors: Caitlin Ostroff, Katherine Long, and Neil Mehta, WSJ Compiled by: AidiDiaoJP, Foresight News Original title: Wall Street Journal: Why is almost everyone losing money in predicting markets other than a few “sharks”? John Pederson, 33, is currently out of work, the former Outback Steakhouse chef is recovering from a car accident and is running out of savings. The prediction market platform Kalshi might be able to solve the problem quickly. He took out a variable interest rate loan and started betting. At first it went very well. By betting on daily snowfall in Detroit (the city where he lives), Pederson turned about $2,000 into nearly $8,000. He then invested money in sports event transactions, using AI-assisted development strategies, which ultimately reached $4.1 million, according to the Wall Street Journal's review of his account records. Then he made his boldest bet to date: bet all $4.1 million that a celebrity would say a specific word on TV, and ended up losing everything. Pedersen isn't the only one to return empty-handed in “anything can be gamed' markets, which include sports, celebrities, news, and more. Kalshi and its competitor, Polymarket, promote themselves as tools that can change the lives of ordinary people — implying that everyone has a fair chance to make a big profit. “I almost couldn't pay my rent, but with Kalshi's predictions, I earned two years of rent,” a woman said excitedly in a Kalshi ad on TikTok. But for most users, the reality is completely different. In contrast, according to the Wall Street Journal's analysis of platform data and interviews with traders, ordinary traders are continuing to lose money, while a small group of experienced professional players — including trading companies with massive data resources — are eating up their funds. The Wall Street Journal found that on Polymarket, 67% of profits go to accounts that account for only 0.1%. That means less than 2000 accounts collectively netted nearly $500 million. The Wall Street Journal analyzed 1.6 million accounts traded on Polymarket since November 2022. The total number of accounts on the platform is at least 2.3 million. The same goes for Kalshi, where there are far more losers than winners. Spokesman Elizabeth Diana said that according to data from the past month, each profitable user corresponds to 2.9 loss-making users. She said that ratio is likely to change as the platform grows. The company does not disclose comprehensive data on user profits, nor does it disclose the total number of users. According to data analytics firm The Block, the total trading volume of the two platforms surged to $242 billion in April, compared to just $1.8 billion a year ago. Proponents say these markets are not gambling, but rather use collective intelligence to accurately predict future events. Research by the Federal Reserve shows that Kalshi is an effective tool for predicting economic trends. Traders are paying for big data streams provided by third parties to gain an advantage. Computers use data and algorithms to predict price movements and manage risk faster than any human being. Professional players also take advantage of scale to make frequent, strategic transactions — sometimes tens of thousands of transactions a day — and profit from small fluctuations, which requires the concentration and discipline rare in ordinary users. Former professional poker player and statistics-trained Michael Boss said, “Retail traders don't have any opportunities.” He places 60 trades every minute on Kalshi and modifies offers 30 times per second. Diana said that many financial markets show a similar phenomenon of wealth concentration, and there are more users who make money on Kalshi than day trading or traditional sports betting. She said Kalshi is no longer advertising “help me pay my rent.” A Polymarket spokesperson declined to comment on the Wall Street Journal's analysis. Polymarket has a data partnership with Wall Street Journal publisher Dow Jones, and this analysis uses only publicly available data. Take Pederson, an unemployed cook who lost everything, for example. He fell into a category full of “bad guys”: referring to the market (betting on whether someone would say a specific word). Professional traders say they don't touch this type of bet because it's unpredictable, and even multi-million dollar data doesn't provide a reliable advantage. According to the Wall Street Journal analysis, the city was mentioned...

108d agoburnking#Kalshi #Predicting the market

OpenAI and Anthropic before IPO: Attacking each other is the most valuable ad

Author: Kaori Editor: Sleepy.md Original title: Before the IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic all wanted to continue arguing. The conflict between OpenAI and Anthropic won't stop because they couldn't stop. Anthropic needed an insecure adversary to prove the need for a secure narrative, and OpenAI needed a hypocritical adversary to justify an open narrative. This structure determines that the opponent's presence is one's best advertising material, and each round of attack strengthens the motivation for the next round of attacks. The two companies are sprinting through the IPO window at the same time. This mutual rivalry also has a more practical function, which is to preemptively define their own valuation logic in the minds of investors. Whoever has a more correct narrative can get a higher valuation. The internal letter that OpenAI Chief Revenue Officer Denise Dresser sent to all employees in early April is actually a product of this logic. Because this internal letter was not meant for employees to see. Dresser used an entire chapter to attack Anthropic one by one: the brand narrative was based on fear, limitations, and the control of AI by a few elites; mistakes in computing power strategies have led to product limitations and reduced experience; Anthropic's external claim of $30 billion in annual revenue was overestimated by about 8 billion dollars because it shared revenue with Amazon and Google in total accounts, while OpenAI used a net scale for Microsoft's share. A company's revenue officer set up a section in an internal letter to disassemble competitors' accounting treatment methods. This has almost no precedent in internal communication in the technology industry. The $8 billion accounting allegation letter reached Bloomberg and The Verge reporters within a day. The week before, OpenAI also sent out another separate memo to investors, saying Anthropic is operating on a smaller development trend. At $8 billion, the core of this allegation is an accounting term. When Anthropic distributes Claude through AWS and Google Cloud, the total amount paid by the customer to the cloud platform is included in Anthropic's revenue, and the commission distributed to the platform is calculated as the cost. This is the total amount method. OpenAI's share of Microsoft uses the net amount method, and only the portion you actually get is included. Both types of processing are legal under US GAAP. Anthropic's rationale is that it acts as a delegator in transactions; the cloud platform is only a distribution channel. OpenAI's counterattack is that the net value method is the standard that listed companies are required to follow. It makes sense on both sides, but reason isn't the point; the focus is on results. When recalculated on a net basis, Anthropic's comparable revenue dropped from 30 billion to 22 billion, which is just as short as OpenAI's self-reported 25 billion. In the window when both companies are sprinting to IPO, whose revenue numbers are higher directly determines their place in the hearts of investors. Anthropic's revenue was still 9 billion at the end of 2025 and reached 30 billion by March 2026, which is more than three times that of OpenAI. If this trend takes root in the minds of investors, OpenAI's valuation of 850 billion dollars will have to face a critical question: Why are you twice as expensive as others, and the growth rate is still three times slower? Therefore, Dresser's 8 billion accusation has only one purpose: to inject a subconscious mind into investors' minds. Anthropic figures cannot be viewed at face value. But one ironic aspect of this attack is that Dresser vigorously promoted OpenAI's new partnership with Amazon in the same letter. If OpenAI were to use the Bedrock distribution channel on a large scale in the future, it would also face the same total and net revenue problems. If you pump someone's whip today, tomorrow it will probably fall on you. The dispute over accounting caliber is only the easiest part of this letter to quantify. More worth deconstructing is Dresser's qualitative judgment on the nature of the Anthropic brand. Fear or responsibility “Their narrative is based on fear, limitations, and the idea that a few elites should control AI.” Most reports dismiss this statement as cursing the street, but it's not just cursing the street. Dresser is re-pricing. She's trying to get investors to take Anth...

129d agoburnking#AI #Anthropic #IPOs #OpenAI

Predicting the rise of the market: how many pieces of cake are left for spinach players?

In the past few years, the forecasting market has risen to prominence and has achieved an astonishing hundred-fold increase thanks to the US election. After the election, sports became the most traded sector in the prediction market, competing with traditional spinach companies for the fat meat of the US sports betting market worth more than 30 billion US dollars. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev mentioned in an interview that the sports spinach company must have realized the seriousness of the situation and understood that it could completely disrupt their business. The prediction market has become a new way for millions of Americans to bet on sporting events and elections, so people can't help but speculate: how much of the spinach market share is being taken by the prediction market? This article will use public data to do some analysis to try to resolve the doubts of all the judges. Predicting market performance In the first few months of 2025, the monthly trading volume of Polymarket and Kalshi hovered between 800 million and 1.2 billion US dollars. By October, it ushered in a blowout. Polymarket's monthly trading volume jumped to US$3.02 billion, an increase of 110% in a single month. Kalshi also grew to about 4.4 billion US dollars, reaching 5.8 billion US dollars in November, and set a record of 6.38 billion US dollars in December. The reason for Kalshi's explosive growth is that it reached a strategic partnership with Robinhood and was directly embedded into a traditional retail brokerage app with tens of millions of active users, bringing in massive amounts of new traditional finance capital and small white users. Polymarket also obtained a compliance license from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) through the acquisition, reopening the US domestic market. Another major reason is that October is a super golden period for North American sports. With Americans' favorite NFL, the new NBA season has begun, and the MLB playoffs are also being played. According to the comprehensive operating rate of 16.8 billion US dollars per month in February 2026 (Polymarket 7 billion US dollars + Kalshi 9.8 billion US dollars), the market is expected to achieve an annual transaction volume of more than 200 billion US dollars. If the growth momentum continues, the predicted market size may reach 1.1 trillion US dollars by 2030. Not bad, right? Has the spinach platform been encroached upon? On the day Kalshi launched “Kalshi Combos” (Kalshi Combos), the DraftKings (DKNG) stock price once plummeted by more than 12%, and the market value evaporated by about 2.5 billion US dollars in a single day. Flutter's (FLUT) stock price plummeted by more than 10%, and the market value evaporated by about 5.5 billion US dollars in a single day. Wall Street analysts pointed out that the advent of Kalshi Combos marks the official entry of the prediction market into the core territory of traditional betting, and Parlays is the most profitable and deepest moat business for DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins talked about falling stock prices in an interview, saying that this is not only a threat from prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, but it is indeed one of the main reasons. Under media portrayals, a voice began to spread: predicting that the market is disrupting and devouring the 100 billion dollar empire of traditional sports betting. But what is the truth? If we compare the actual turnover of compliant sports giants such as FanDuel and DraftKings, and Stake, an unregulated crypto casino hegemon, and Polymarket in the same data dimension, we'll find that no real encroachment occurred between 2023 and 2025; the two showed explosive growth in parallel on two tracks. According to the latest “Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracking” report published by the American Gaming Association, the US legal sports betting industry hit record highs in both 2024 and 2025. Total US commercial gaming revenue reached $78.72 billion in 2025, up 9.2% year over year. Legal gaming contributed $181 billion in tax revenue to state and local governments, up 15.1% year over year. And this doesn't include data on non-compliant crypto casinos such as Stake. Although Stake remains privatized and financial reports are not disclosed, through recent disclosures such as KuCoin research, MEXC news, etc., its current volume is extremely impressive: the total amount of bets processed by Stake is stable at around $10 billion per month, and the monthly...

143d agoLuxurytracy

From OpenAI's “Hypocrisy” to the Rise of Anthropic: Ten Years of Grudge Rewrite the AI Power Map

Author: Keach Hagey Original title: 10 years of personal grudge. Had it not been for OpenAI's “hypocrisy,” Anthropic “Wall Street Journal” reporter Keach Hagey, the world's strongest AI company, published a lengthy investigation report. Through numerous interviews with current and former employees and people close to the executives of the two companies, the first systematic disclosure of personal grievances between Anthropic and OpenAI founders. What is shaping the global AI landscape is not only a battle over technology routes, but also a period of personal trauma that has never healed. Dario Amodei's internal rhetoric in recent months has been far more intense than in public. He likened Sam Altman's legal dispute with Elon Musk to a “Hitler vs. Stalin dispute,” saying OpenAI President Greg Brockman's donation of $25 million to the pro-Trump Super Political Action Committee was “evil” (evil), and compared OpenAI and other competitors to “tobacco companies that sell products that know they are harmful.” After the Pentagon dispute escalated, he also called OpenAI “mendacious” (mendacious) on Slack, writing “These facts show a pattern of behavior I often see in Sam Altman.” Anthropic internally refers to this set of brand strategies to create a competitor's “healthy alternative” (healthy alternative). An unnamed ad that satirized OpenAI embedded ads in chatbots during this year's Super Bowl was a product of its disclosure. The story begins in the living room of a shared house on Delano Street in San Francisco in 2016. Dario lives here with her sister Daniela Amodei, and Brockman, the co-founder of OpenAI, often visits with Daniela because of his personal relationship. One day, Brockman, Dario, and Daniela's fiance at the time, Holden Karnofsky, an effective altruist philanthropist, sat together to argue about the proper development path of AI: Brockman thought all Americans should be told what was happening at the AI frontier, while Dario and Karnofsky thought that sensitive information should first be reported to the government rather than broadcast to the public. This disagreement later became a watershed in the philosophical lines of the two companies. Impressed by OpenAI's talent lineup, Dario joined in mid-2016 to stay up late training AI agents to play video games with Brockman. However, after four years of working together, the conflict around power and sense of belonging continues to deepen. In 2017, Musk, the main funder of OpenAI at the time, asked to list each employee's contribution and lay off employees based on this. 10% to 20% of the team of about 60 people were fired one by one. Dario treated this as cruel, and one of the layoffs later became the co-founder of Anthropic. In the same year, an ethics consultant hired by Dario proposed that OpenAI act as a coordinating entity between the AI company and the government, and Brockman derived the idea of “selling AGI to the UN Security Council nuclear powers”. Dario thought this was almost treason, and at one point he considered resigning. Altman took over the lead after Musk quit in 2018. He agreed with Dario: Employees lacked confidence in the leadership of Brockman and Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Dario stayed on the condition that the two were no longer supervisors, but soon discovered that Altman also promised the latter two that they had the right to fire themselves; the two promises were in conflict with each other. After the GPT series development started, the most intense conflict broke out among executives over who could participate in the language model project. Dario, who was the research director at the time, did not allow Brockman to get involved. Daniela, who co-led the project with Alec Radford, threatened to resign as the person in charge, and Radford's personal wishes were involved in a proxy war between executives. Dario's credentials soared with the success of GPT-2 and GPT-3, but he felt that Altman was downplaying his contribution. Brockman talks about OpenAI on podcast...

145d agoburnking#AI #Anthropic #OpenAI