BTC暴涨 · 15

Arthur Hayes: US 'colonization' of Venezuela will drive BTC to skyrocket

Comparing news, Arthur Hayes pointed out in the latest long article “Suavemente” that America's geopolitical act of “arresting” Maduro and actually controlling Venezuela's oil resources was aimed at lowering oil prices, curbing inflation, and providing President Trump with room for continued monetary easing and fiscal expansion, thus maintaining voter support during the midterm elections. He believes that in an environment where “banknote printing is stimulated and energy prices are controlled,” a rise in nominal GDP will drive up risky assets, especially anti-inflationary assets such as Bitcoin. He made it clear: “go long on BTC and high-quality crypto assets”. Maelstrom has almost fully entered 2026, and he is optimistic that the privacy narrative sector (such as ZEC) will become the main line in the next round.

228d ago

A critical moment at the end of the year: What the FOMC resolution means for the crypto market

At the end of 2025, the crypto market is at a critical juncture. Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $90,000, the Fear & Greed Index (Fear & Greed Index) fell to 25 (extreme fear), and short-term holder capitalization reached the second-highest point in history, after the bottom of the 2024 yen arbitrage crash. The FOMC meeting on December 10 has come to an end. The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75% if the market expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the forward-looking guidance turned hawkish — only one rate cut is expected in 2026. As a result, BTC briefly fell below the $90,000 mark. The market reaction was lackluster, and there was a “buy expectations, sell facts” correction. However, the Fed also launched a “Reserve Management Purchase” (RMP) program to inject 40 billion US dollars of short-term treasury bond liquidity every month. This is seen as a “non-QE” sign of moderate easing, which may reshape market dynamics in 2026. In this “year-end test,” is “holding coins for the holiday season” to welcome a potential rebound, or is “falling into the bag to secure” locking in profits? Combining FOMC influence, on-chain data, institutional trends, and historical rules, this article explores allocation strategies and looks forward to the 2026 layout. FOMC resolution interprets liquidity transition under hawkish interest rate cuts The FOMC meeting was the last monetary policy decision in 2025. This time, interest rate cuts were passed with a 9:3 difference, but the “bitmap” shows that the 2026 rate cut path has slowed down, leaving only 25 basis points of space. This reinforces the “hawkish interest rate cut” narrative: the Fed is concerned about a rebound in inflation and a soft landing in the job market, and is unwilling to ease excessively in the short term. The market has set an 89% chance of cutting interest rates, causing BTC to fluctuate only slightly after the incident and ETH to consolidate around $3,000. The impact on crypto is twofold: short-term pressure: hawkish guidance intensified risk aversion, and BTC did not rebound to a high of $94,000 as expected, triggering tens of billions of dollars in leveraged liquidations. Low liquidity at the end of the year (for example, perpetual contract holdings decreased by 40%-50% compared to October), compounded by Bank of Japan (BOJ) decisions, and the market is prone to “post-pump dumping.” Long-term benefits: QT (quantitative austerity) officially ended on December 1, and the Fed balance sheet began to recover after shrinking from $9 trillion to $6.5 trillion. The RMP program is equivalent to an “invisible QE” and is expected to inject $trillion in liquidity in 2026 to drive a revaluation of risky assets. Historical data shows that inflection points in liquidity often trigger a crypto rebound (such as a sharp rise in BTC after the 2024 Fed shift). Furthermore, the explosive growth of the global M2 money supply, the weakening DXY dollar index, and China/EU stimulus policies will further tilt capital towards risky assets. FOMC reinforces the “macro-dominant” narrative. Crypto is no longer only cyclically driven, but linked to equity/AI assets. Short-term volatility intensified, but the injection of liquidity paved the way for 2026. The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman will also be a key variable in the 2026 liquidity environment. Jerome Powell's term as chairman will officially end in May 2026 (his term as a board member lasts until January 2028). President Trump has indicated that he will announce his successor nomination in early 2026. Currently, the top candidates focus on “two Kevins”: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett (who advocates more aggressive interest rate cuts) and former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (who recently visited the White House to emphasize consulting the president's interest rate views). A chairman who is more pro-Trump and more inclined to easing policies may strengthen the 2026 interest rate cut path and accelerate liquidity injection. It resonates with policies such as the RMP plan and the national Bitcoin reserve, and further boosts confidence in risky assets. Institutional trend review: 2026 layout — from “defense” to “structural participation” 2025 is regarded as the “first year of crypto mainstreaming”. Institutional entry is no longer a marginal experiment, but a systemic transformation. According to a16z's “State of Crypto 2025 Report”, traditional financial institutions such as Visa, BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan Chase have fully launched crypto products, while tech-native players such as PayPal and Stripe are...

247d agoLuxurytracy#FOMC

If the Fed's policy shifts, it may detonate Bitcoin. Previously, the QE cycle had driven BTC to skyrocket by 1000%

Comparative news, according to MarketWatcher, the market believes that the Federal Reserve is expected to shift from quantitative austerity (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), and that this move will inject liquidity into the financial market. Currently, the crypto industry's expectations for QE are still high. The previous QE cycle drove Bitcoin to skyrocket by 1000% between March 2020 and November 2021. Despite optimism in market sentiment, some analysts warned that quantitative austerity was continuing, only slowing down. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of crypto research firm IntoTheCryptoVerse, stated, “Quantitative austerity did not 'essentially end' on April 1.

515d ago#Bitcoin #mobility

BTC is currently undervalued by 50%, and the real price may exceed $120,000

Overnight, BTC continued to hold steady at 65k, pointing to 66k. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates recently, the mood for gold, US stocks, and A-shares is rising one after another; on the contrary, BTC appears to be lagging behind. Someone (Game of Trades) studied the divergence between BTC and the S&P 500 and the negative correlation between the BTC and US dollar indices over the past six months and came to a conclusion: the current market price of BTC is underestimated by 50%, and the actual price may exceed $120,000 to $140,000. Generally speaking, the upward phase of BTC will resonate with the same frequency as US stocks. As shown in the picture below, the bottom recovered from the end of 2018 to mid-2019, the early fast bulls from April 2020 to the beginning of 2021, breaking out of the bear market from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2024, etc. However, at some point, we will also see a divergence in the trend of BTC and US stocks. As shown in the picture below, the bottom of the BTC bear market fluctuated sideways at the end of 2018, BTC fluctuated and the S&P 500 rose in the second half of 2019, the BTC bear market bottomed out in the second half of 2022, and the S&P 500 rose in early 2023. The most recent long-term divergence was that since March 2024, the BTC market fluctuated sideways and the S&P 500 rose. As a result, many people have the illusion that if BTC rises, US stocks will definitely rise; if US stocks rise, BTC will not necessarily rise; but if US stocks fall, BTC will definitely fall. Seen this way, the right time for US stocks to rise should be more than BTC. However, the end result was that BTC's increase far outperformed US stocks. It's like dad running with his son. When my son starts running, dad sometimes speeds up together, and sometimes walks slowly and leisurely. When my son can't run, dad also stops and waits for him. But as soon as dad speeds up, he can always easily surpass his son. Don't just see your son running far longer than his dad; in fact, dad always takes less time to run faster and farther than his son. BTC is the father, and the US stock market is the son. Well, this time, from March of this year to September now, my son is still running, but my dad has stopped and walked slowly and leisurely; this is just waiting. The six-month turbulence arrangement is meant for those who chased up the market in March to have a sufficient time window to increase their positions and establish positions every time they fall. The average cost of opening a position is around $60,000. This is the starting point benchmark for the next phase of the market. BTC is a sensitive indicator of the weakening of the US dollar. It has a negative correlation with the US dollar index DXY. As shown in the figure below, DXY fell and BTC skyrocketed in 2013, DXY fell and BTC soared in 2017, DXY fell and BTC soared in 2020, DXY fell in 2023, and BTC recovered rapidly. why? Because of the so-called rise and fall of BTC, it is a nominal price denominated in US dollars. When the dollar weakens, the nominal price does not change, which is equivalent to an actual discount. This will induce non-US buyers to rush to buy, and demand will skyrocket. This is due precisely to the unique advantages of BTC as a world currency and global asset. Now, the Federal Reserve is officially starting to cut interest rates. This means that next, the US dollar will start a new round of decline along with US bond yields. This will hopefully drive a new round of BTC's surge. According to researchers' estimates, the current market price of BTC is undervalued by about 50%. In past history, when there was such a drastic underestimation, there were also January 2019, September 2020, January 2023, etc. However, when there was such a drastic undervaluation three times in the past, it was the night before the BTC explosion without exception. Sit back, fasten your seatbelt, and don't get thrown out of the car. The fun and exciting adventure is about to begin!...

692d ago刘教链#Liu Jiaolian

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and half of them are wrong

Overnight at 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting ended as scheduled. Interest rate cuts have come to fruition, once and for all. It's not an interest rate hike, it's not a change; it's not a 25 bps cut. Instead, it's a big opening, and directly cut interest rates by 50 bps! Half guessed wrong. The faces of the “spiritual kneeling people” and “smart people” who insist that interest rates will not be cut are almost swollen. Only one director voted against a sharp 50 bps cut in interest rates because he wanted only 25 bps of interest rate cut this time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell successfully convinced most voters. He leaned against the marble wall and faced the sky, either in his heart or meditating: “Looking back on today in the future, will I be the one who saved America from collapse and disaster?” By early morning, BTC had surged to 62k. Powell's performance at the operational level was undoubtedly almost perfect for cutting interest rates by 50 bps, which exceeded expectations this time. Now that you've decided to raise the white flag, pose a little more handsome. The education chain has continuously sent a signal to cut interest rates by 50 bp in recent internal reports: - [“9.18 Education Chain Reference: Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve tonight”]: “And for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, it seems that a direct reduction of 50 bp is the best choice, so the risk of insufficient interest rate cuts can be minimized.”... “Friends who often read the teaching chain articles should remember that when we resumed trading the past few times, we couldn't say that interest rate cuts caused the collapse; it was just that the Fed reacted too slowly and fell too slowly.”... “If the Federal Reserve can learn a few lessons from history, it should resolutely choose a direct reduction of 50 bps this time around.” The probability of cutting interest by 25 bp is 35%, and the probability of cutting interest by 50 bp is 65%. - [“9.16 Education Chain Reference: Crypto Crisis and Liquidity Bull Market”]: “(Sam said) Federal Reserve officials need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to prevent a potential labor market recession and prepare for further action.”... “Preventive interest rate cuts are probably right. Lest the Federal Reserve respond too slowly every time.”... “Maybe Powell thought the same. But it depends on whether he can convince the other directors.” The probability of cutting interest by 25 bp is 41%, and the probability of cutting interest by 50 bp is 59%. - [“9.15 Education Chain Reference: BTC is about to enter a continuous upward season, or rise to 90,000 dollars”]: “More and more people expect the Federal Reserve may take more active action when it starts cutting interest rates next week.” The probability of cutting interest by 25 bp is 50%, and the probability of cutting interest by 50 bp is 50%. - [“9.13 Education Chain Reference: The probability of aggressive interest rate cuts has increased dramatically, and gold has soared”]: “The market is increasingly expecting that the Federal Reserve may take more aggressive action when it starts cutting interest rates next week.” The probability of cutting interest by 25 bp is 59%, and the probability of cutting interest by 50 bp is 41%... By tracking the internal input of the education chain, you can clearly sense the macroeconomic situation and grasp the changes in the path of the current interest rate cut operation by the Federal Reserve. Obviously, the turning point happened on September 13-15. Because just the day before, on September 12 [“9.12 Education Chain Reference: Insist on storing 1 BTC every day for 665 consecutive days”], monthly inflation and initial jobless claims data still guide the market to expect a small interest rate cut of 25 bps (85% probability) rather than a sharp 50 bps (probability 15%). Let's review who all the Wall Street institutions guessed right (guess 50bp): J.P. Morgan (source: 9.12 reference), UBS (source: 9.16 reference), guess wrong (guess 25bp): Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Citibank (source: 9.18 reference) who guessed wrong (guess not to cut or even raise interest rates): some experts, big V, KOLs, and the frog at the bottom of the well... haha, this is the only one! Readers and friends who have followed JiaChain earlier should have felt the impression that the Federal Reserve will surrender in September as early as in the August 1 article “The Federal Reserve Raises the White Flag — 10-Year Agreement #28 (ROI 51%)” in the interpretation of the July interest rate meeting. At the time, the Federal Reserve took the initiative to find a level for itself, changing its focus on inflation to focusing on inflation and employment. At the time, the probability of not cutting interest rates had already been reduced to 0. On August 14, [“8.14 Education Chain Reference: US PPI falls short of expectations; BlackRock says the Fed will cut interest rates in September”] reported that BlackRock expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the September interest rate meeting. By August 22, the education chain reported the minutes of the July interest rate meeting disclosed by the Federal Reserve in [“8.22 Education Chain Reference: Turns out, the Federal Reserve is already ready to surrender”]. The minutes revealed, “The Federal Reserve has long seen the data and is ready to cut interest rates. The committee members are already discussing whether to drop 25 bp or 50 bp.” Then soon it was August 24, and Powell was...

702d ago刘教链#Liu Jiaolian

Powell confirms that BTC has skyrocketed

Yesterday's report [“8.23 Education Chain Reference: El Salvador Achieves True Results”] surprisingly accurately predicted Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting at 10 p.m. — “People generally expect Powell to suggest that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce policy restrictions in September, but there are limited clues about the frequency and extent of interest rate cuts.” It's not that people guessed correctly, but Powell never let the market down. In his globally high-profile speech last night [1], Powell confirmed: 1. Confidence that inflation will continue to return to the 2% target has increased dramatically. He said, “I am more confident that the inflation rate will steadily rise back to 2%.” (My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent.) 2. The job market has cooled down. He said, “The labor market is now much cooler than it was before when it was overheated.” (Today, the labor market has apparently been overheated from its formerly overheated state.) 3. Economic growth remains strong. “Overall, the economy continues to grow steadily,” he said. (Overall, the economy aims to grow at a solid pace.) He further emphasized: “The upward risk of inflation has abated. The downside risks to employment, on the other hand, have increased. As we emphasized in our last FOMC statement, we are very concerned about the risks we face in our dual mission.” (The upside risks to inflation have been diminished. And the downside risks to employment have disadvantages. As we decided in our last FOMC statement, we are considering the risks to both sides of our dual interests.) He unequivocally confirmed: “The time has come for policy adjustments.” (The time has come for policy to adjust.) Where is “implication.” That's already “explicit”, OK? However, regarding the pace and extent of the adjustments, he said, “The direction is clear. The timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on future data, changing prospects, and balance of risks.” (The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the anticipated outlook, and the balance of risks.) is simply the same as stated in [yesterday's intrinsic review]. Powell's speech, the ceiling of language art. Just as Powell was speaking, the BTC long and short sides started a fight. First, the bulls suddenly boosted BTC from 61k to over 62k within 15 minutes, then the bears spent three 15 minutes to push the bulls back from 62k to 61k. However, after all, the bears were unable to recover, and a zero-sum game with even forces on the field did not change the direction of external forces. BTC began to soar from 61k, and by around 5 a.m., it had already risen above 65k. In the morning, the teaching chain saw this scene and sent out a greeting: “Every time there is a sharp rise, don't just ask about the rise and fall; first ask if your positions are good enough. I will work with you. Good morning!” The community is full of life; there are people who eat and steal and enjoy themselves. There are those who claim that they have already won the bag after clearing the inventory. There are also people who regret losing positions and wait for a drop and don't know if they can get into the car. Some of them ended up losing their positions by stealing the ground when crying. There are also cases where punching a fat person with a swollen face indicates that an empty stomach doesn't hurt. There is an unbelievable argument that 100,000 dollars is the starting point; now we have to empty our positions and wait until 100,000 dollars get on the car before stabilizing. Other people have gone crazy, threatening to die in an empty position and wait 25,000. If they can't wait for the rest of their lives, they will let their grandchildren keep waiting; if their son can't wait, their grandchildren will keep waiting, and their grandchildren will vow to wait. All of these things are pretty impressive. There's a saying...

728d ago刘教链#Liu Jiaolian #Bitcoin #Bitcoin

[Comparative to Daily Market News] The next target for BTC bulls: $67,000

The crypto market was higher on Monday after the Bitcoin halving was successfully implemented last Friday. Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $64,525 in early Monday trading and continued to climb to the $66,000 support level, hitting a high of $66,905 in the afternoon. At press time, it was trading at $66,535, an increase of about 3% in 24 hours. Altcoins climbed during Monday's trading, with the vast majority of the top 200 tokens in market capitalization achieving positive gains, with only a dozen coins falling by more than 2%. Ontology (ONT) gained the most, rising 19.4% to $0.474, followed by Pepe (PEPE), which rose 16.4%, and WEMIX (WEMIX), which rose 16.2%. Jito (JTO) led the decline, falling 5.5%, MEW falling 4.9%, and Saga (SAGA) falling 4%. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market value is $2.43 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 53.7%. After experiencing the worst weekly performance in 2024, major US stock indexes started higher this week. By the close of the day, the S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ all closed higher, rising 0.87%, 0.67%, and 1.11% respectively. The US dollar index remained flat, and the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 100 basis points. The bulls are targeting the $67,000 resistance level. Bitcoin has surged more than 5% since last Friday, and the broader cryptocurrency market has also rebounded strongly, especially meme coins, which have reached double digits. “If Bitcoin breaks through the $67,000 resistance level, it could lay the foundation for a rebound to this year's high of $74,000,” Secure Digital Markets analysts said in the report. Historically, Bitcoin's halving and declining supply have often been catalysts for significant price increases. Analysts pointed out that more attention to Bitcoin has drawn additional attention to tokens within the Bitcoin ecosystem, and many say the industry will perform well during this bull cycle. Market analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin is currently in the accumulation phase after being halved. Once completed, the only stage left before the bull market ends is the parabolic upward phase. Other tokens that performed well after the halving include Bitcoin's second-tier solutions and other Bitcoin-related projects, such as Ordinals. Secure Digital Markets stated, “In the field of Bitcoin's layer 2 solutions, tokens such as STX native to the Stacks network performed better than Bitcoin after the expected halving event. By running on the Bitcoin blockchain, these layer 2 projects enhance scalability and transaction speed, and facilitate off-chain transactions. STX, for example, has risen nearly 20% to $2.95.” Regarding spot Bitcoin ETFs, Dune Analytics data shows that on Friday, the market saw a total net inflow of $59.7 million, mainly driven by significant contributions from Fidelity and BlackRock. At the same time, Grayscale's outflows declined, reaching its lowest level since April 10. The analyst added: “In contrast, the ETH/BTC trading pair remains stagnant, hovering near yearly lows, and the future direction is uncertain.” An analyst warned that it is still too early to say that Bitcoin will open an upward channel because historically, after halving, there will be a period of weak prices. Neil Roarty, an analyst at investment platform Stocklytics, said, “Although historically, there have been big bull markets after the previous halving, it is worth remembering that these bull markets only lasted a few months, not days or weeks. In fact, some analysts are predicting that the price of BTC will fall in the short to medium term, citing central bankers' reluctance to lower interest rates and venture capital's reluctance to fully embrace the sector, which could hinder Bitcoin's development”. Neil Roarty added: “The Bitcoin investment environment is much more complicated than it was four years ago, and those looking forward to a sharp rise in BTC will most likely need to prepare for a marathon rather than sprint.” BTC needs to take $6.9 million to confirm a breakout...

851d agoWendy#2023 market #Bitfinex #MEME #Secure Digital Markets #Stacks #Ethereum #halving #Multiple heads #altcoins #levers #Bitcoin #reckoning #Bull market #empty #Market

Uncover the signs of a sharp rise in BTC! 3 escape indicators to help you accurately capture the golden points of exit!

Author: Fuji Editor: LEO This article was co-authored by the Nubit community! Currently, niubite.com (niubite.com)'s weekly win rate and profit margin can basically outperform most investors in the market. Although the crypto market experienced a sharp decline this year (315), and many high-quality chips were sold at a discount, which also caused many investors' wallets to shrink, from a long-term perspective, the peak of this crypto bull market is far from here. So, in the investment process, how can we judge the high point of the market so as to escape the peak in time? Share the following 3 escape indicators for your reference. 1. Pi Cycle Top Index (Pi Cycle Top) Pi Cycle Top can refer to the following website: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/pi-cycle-top-indicatorhttps://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/从历史数据来看，Pi Cycle Top Index (Pi) Cycle Top) The accuracy of judging market cycle highs is relatively high. In the Pi cycle top indicator, it identifies the top and bottom of the market cycle by using Bitcoin's moving average DMA (a line representing the average price of an asset over a specific period of time, represented by SMA on some websites) over different time periods. The Pi cycle top indicator mainly identifies the top of the market cycle by comparing the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and the 350-day moving average (350DMA). Since 350 ÷ 111 = 3.153, it is just an approximation of Pi (Pi и 3.142), which is where the indicator's name comes from. In actual application, the principle of Pi Cycle Top is to compare Bitcoin's 111DMA and 350DMA x 2 and find where they overlap to determine the top of the market. In other words, when the 111-day moving average (111 DMA) and 2 times the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2) coincide, it is considered a potential high point in the market, indicating that the price of Bitcoin is about to reach its peak price. As can be clearly seen from the data of the past few market cycles, when the 111DMA continued to move upward and broke through the 350DMA x 2, the Bitcoin price reached the peak of the cycle, the market reached the top, and then the BTC price began to gradually decline. There is the Pi Cycle Top indicator, and the corresponding one is the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator (used to determine the bottom of the market). Pi Cycle Bottom identifies the market bottom through moving averages 471DMA and 150DMA. Interestingly, the ratio between them is 471/150 = 3.14, which is the value of Pi. The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator compares Bitcoin's 150DMA and 471DMA x 0.745 to find where they overlap to determine the bottom of the market. As can be seen, 2x is used in the Pi Cycle Top indicator and 0.475x is used in the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator. The reason for using 2x and 0.745x is mainly tested through historical data. Judging from historical data, the intersection of DMA multiplied by these two multiples most accurately reflects the lowest point and highest point of the Bitcoin price. Therefore, they have always been used in the Pi Cycle Indicator indicator. 2. Timeline Let's take a look back at the previous few halving times and the number of days it took to reach historic high prices. The first halving occurred in November 2012, when the price was $12, and the cyclical price peak of $1,163 was reached after 362 days of halving (November 25, 2013). The second halving occurred in July 2016, when the Bitcoin price was $663 on the day of the halving, then reached a cyclical price peak of $525 (December 16, 2017) of $19666. The third halving occurred in May 2020. On that day, the price of Bitcoin was $8,740. After 548 days (November 10, 2021), the price of Bitcoin reached...

886d ago世链投研#Bitcoin

Foresight Ventures: Institutions fully enter the market, meme season quietly begins

The crypto market surged, with US spot ETFs pouring in for several days. By MiKeA. Market View 1. Macro Liquidity Improvement of Monetary Liquidity. The US core PCE was revised to 2.1% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations, highlighting that inflationary pressure still exists. Investors' expectations of the Fed's rate cut continue to weaken, believing that it will only cut interest rates by 75 basis points in '24. US stocks continued to strengthen, and the financial reports of technology companies, led by Nvidia, once again supported the gains, and there were no signs of a serious correction. The crypto market surged, with US spot ETFs pouring in for several days. 2. The market capitalization ranking of the top 100 market capitalization gains list: This week, BTC soared close to a record high, and the market began to suck blood. BTC dominance rose to a recent all-time high of 55%, with only 30% of altcoins outperforming BTC in the market. Market hot topics mainly focus on AI and memes, institutional hype AI, retail hype meme1. PEPE: meme is in the interests of major exchanges and helps attract new users. The meme sector accounted for 5% of the total market capitalization in the last round. If set conservatively to 2% in this round, it could reach at least 120 billion US dollars. DOGE and SHIB are in a reserved position, and PEPE, which has already been launched, seems to have great potential. 2. AR: Originally, it was the leader of the permanent storage circuit, and the public chain L1 transformed into an eth killer. The public testnet Arweave AO was recently released to design a computational layer for AI. 3. COTI: It was originally a 2017 payment project, and the team is from Israel. The recent transformation to the private version of ETH l2 only has fully homomorphic encryption technology, which claims to be far superior to Fhenix, which Multicoin Capital invests in. With a market capitalization of hundreds of millions of dollars, it has a higher profit and loss ratio compared to ZK L2, which is easily worth tens of billions of dollars. 3. BTC Market 1) On-chain data New spot ETF products have created a new source of demand for BTC. Over 90,000 BTC net flows into the ETF. These inflows reached $6 billion and brought the total ETF size to $40 billion. The stablecoin market capitalization increased 2% month-on-month and continued its upward trend. The long-term trend indicator mVRV-zScore is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profit status of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom band. MVRV fell below key level 1, and holders were generally in the red. The current indicator is 2.67, which is in the middle stage. The net inflow of institutional crypto investment products has surpassed $6 billion year to date for 4 consecutive weeks. 2) Futures Market Futures Funding Rates: The rapid rise in rates this week hit a one-year high, and market sentiment is fuzzy. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market. Futures holdings: BTC holdings have risen sharply this week, and volume and price have risen sharply. Futures long/short ratio: 1.1. Market sentiment is normal. Retail sentiment is mostly an inverse indicator. Less than 0.7 is more panicked, and above 2.0 is greedy. Long/short fluctuates more than the data, and the reference significance weakens. 3) In the spot market, BTC surged close to the previous high of 69,000, with a monthly trend of six consecutive days. Capital from spot ETFs continues to flow in, and many mainstream US institutions passively allocate them strategically. In the short term, only altcoins with AI and meme narratives can outperform BTC, while the other 70% of altcoins have basically outperformed. B. Market data 1. Total locked up volume of public chains 2. TVL share of each public chain This week's total TVL was 925 billion US dollars, an overall increase of 17.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.8%. BTC has advanced by leaps and bounds, directly breaking through the 60,000 position and directly approaching a new all-time high. The TVL of all mainstream public chains rose sharply this month, and the TVL of all mainstream public chains also rose this week. This week, the ETH chain rose 4%, the TRON chain and ARB chain rose about 9%, the BSC chain and SOLANA chain both rose 15%, and the BTC chain soared 38%. The ETH chain has surged close to 60% in the past month, and the total TVL reached 52.6b, which is more than five times that of second place. 3. Locked volume of each chain protocol 1) ETH lock-up volume 2) BSC...

901d agody zhang#Foresight Ventures #MEME #NFTs #Solana #VR #Ethereum #Bitcoin #financing

Crypto market capitalization is soaring, and a raging bull market is on the horizon?

A. Market Views 1. Macro Liquidity Currency liquidity is tightening. Faced with macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, risk aversion in the market escalated, and the 10-year US Treasury yield approached the 5% mark. The US dollar index is rising, and the Fed is still far from cutting interest rates. It is expected that interest rates will not be raised in November, but there is a high probability that interest rates will be raised in January next year. US stocks continued to fall, hitting their lowest level in half a year. The crypto market soared, and its linkage with the US stock market weakened, leaving the high level of independence in the year. 2. The market capitalization ranking of the top 100 market capitalization rankings: BTC has skyrocketed this week, and the market's approval of spot ETFs has become more optimistic. The rise in copycats is on a rotating basis, and the hot topics revolve around public chains and meme concepts. The market automatically chose the direction with the least resistance. Public chains are mainly non-ETH-related public chains, such as SOL, MINA, CFX, KUJI, etc., which are characterized by little capital in ambush and easy for bookmakers to trade. However, ETH-related second-tier companies, such as ARB and OP, were shunned by speculative funds because they had more funds to ambush Cancun upgrades in the early stages. At the same time, life on the chain has begun to recover, many new meme coins have begun to emerge, and the meme coin season is coming soon. Value investors like to invest in public chains, retail investors like to invest in emotional memes, and everyone has a good future. 1. PEPE: Recently, the team destroyed $7 million in tokens, and I feel like there will be some action in the future. PEPE has broken through the weekly line, large transaction volume, and high market recognition. Meme coins have the characteristic of being cut 10 times more at the waist and 10 times at the waist, making them suitable for breaking new highs and breaking whole numbers. Other memes, such as Harry Potter bitcon and joe coin, have also increased several times. 2. MINA: A lightweight ZK public chain listed on the Korea Exchange Upbit. The expected effect of South Korea's recent currency listings is obvious. There is generally a multi-fold increase in speculation, such as POLYX, CYBER, etc. 3. TRB: For a domestically produced oracle project, the fundamentals are lackluster. Recently, the price surpassed $100, and the speculation was more than 10 times higher. A few major addresses control 30%, which is a typical stock market. There are also BLZ, INJ, etc. of the same type, so be aware of the risk of emptying. 3. BTC market 1) 80% of the BTC coin holding addresses on the chain have achieved profit. As can be seen from the Binance Exchange's trading volume, since the fee-free end, this is the second highest level since the beginning of April. As the market nears its year-to-date high, a large number of coin holding addresses have recovered from losses to profits. The total market value of stablecoins remained flat and rose slightly. In the past week, the market value of USDT, which is the main trading force, has risen by more than 630 million US dollars, and now the market capitalization has exceeded 84 billion US dollars. As long as the trend continues, the market can come out of the bottom. The long-term trend indicator mVRV-zScore is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profit status of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below key level 1, and holders were generally in the red. The current indicator is 1.03, which has entered the recovery phase. Net inflows from crypto asset investment products for 4 consecutive weeks. The recent inflow of capital may be related to the news of the launch of a BTC spot ETF in the US, with a total capital of $66 million. SOL saw a further inflow of $15 million last week, making it the most popular altcoin so far this year. Continued concerns about ETH led to an outflow of $7 million, which was the only altcoin to see an outflow last week, in stark contrast to SOL. 2) Futures Market Futures Funding Rate: This week's rate is positive, and the main capital chose to go long. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market. Futures holdings: Total BTC holdings rose sharply this week. In sync with the price, the entry of the main capital is optimistic about the future market. Futures long and short ratio: 0.9. Retail investors are in a vacuum. Retail sentiment is mostly an inverse indicator. Less than 0.7 is more panicked, and above 2.0 is greedy. Long/short fluctuates more than the data, and the reference significance weakens. 3) The BTC spot market broke through a new yearly high. The bears were liquidated in a series, rapidly increasing the price of BTC from $30,000 to $35,000 in just a few hours. According to the news, BlackRock's spot ETF has received pre-listing preparations. On the technical side, BTC stands at the 28,000 BOLL weekly bull-and-bear dividing line, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The RSI indicator is 85 and has entered the overbought range. Short-term market sentiment is greedy, beware of pullback risks. BTC's market share reached 53%, and 55% is an important hurdle. If the future goes down from 55%, altcoins may rotate to more opportunities...

1028d agody zhang#BLZ #MEME #NFTs #OpenSea #SOL #TRB #Tron #Uniswap #USDT #Ethereum #markets #Bitcoin