Han Feng: BTCD can play an important role in future listed companies in dealing with debt crises
(This article was rearranged based on Han Feng's speech at the DBS Bank Tower RWA Forum in Lujiazui, Shanghai) 1. Introduction: Starting from personal experience, focusing on the debt crisis and the value of BTCD, I'd like to talk to you about some practical topics today. Everything is based on my personal experience. Over the past many years, I have always been concerned about the relationship between Bitcoin and the debt crisis. From initially being questioned by the traditional financial community, to today's changes in global attitudes towards cryptocurrencies, to exploring BTCD solutions in actual combat, I hope to bring you new thoughts on dealing with the debt crisis of listed companies. 2. A shift in perception: From “questioning Bitcoin” to increasing global recognition (1) Clash of ideas in the early years: Traditional finance's exclusion of cryptocurrencies in the early days of cryptocurrency development, I was directly opposed by traditional financiers for recommending the allocation of Bitcoin. They insisted that “money can only be issued by the central bank” — this is the core creed in college finance textbooks, and it seems irrefutable. At a financial forum in Shanghai in 2016, a leader of the Financial Services Administration also strongly persuaded me: “The central bank must have exclusive rights to issue currency before implementing monetary policy.” At the time, these views sounded logical and rigorous, but subsequent global financial practices gradually overturned this “single perception.” (2) 180-degree shift in attitude: US and Harvard's approval 1. US policy shift: Now the US has clearly confirmed that Bitcoin can be used as a national reserve asset, and sees stablecoins as an important means to resolve the US debt crisis. This transformation proves that excluding the financial role of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will drastically reduce the country's monetary policy choice space, and even fall into a “stuck neck” passive situation in trade wars. 2. Harvard resonance: In 2024, in order to clearly explain the value of Bitcoin, I made a special trip to Harvard University to talk with Yale directors and Harvard alumni about “solving the global debt crisis.” After I proposed the core logic of Bitcoin, not only was it approved by them, but I also encouraged the NBW (New Bretton Woods) team to successfully obtain incubation approval from the Harvard Innovation Center under the advice of Professor Harvard Xue (for example, going to the Cuiyuan Hotel in Boston). 3. High level concern: Even President Trump has begun to focus on Bitcoin and stablecoins — essentially, traditional “central bank money” methods are no longer sufficient to resolve the current debt crisis, and cryptocurrencies provide a new path. 3. The nature of the global debt crisis: the 100-year cycle and the failure of traditional solutions (1) Radalio's core judgment: the once-in-a-century crisis Ridalio, founder of the Bridgewater Fund, concluded through massive data in “Debt Crisis” that the world is currently facing a global, deep, large-scale debt crisis once in a century. Unlike a “minor crisis” every 10 years (such as the 2008 financial crisis), the scale and depth of impact of this crisis far exceeds that of the past, and is an “overall crisis level cycle.” (2) Limitations of traditional solutions: “printing more money” cannot cure the root causes of debt crises. Traditional methods are essentially “injecting liquidity through printing money”, such as: · The world's mainstream “quantitative easing” policy; · China's 4 trillion bailout plan launched in 2008. However, these methods are largely ineffective for the “once-in-a-century crisis” — the last crisis of a similar level was the Great Depression of 1929, which ultimately required World War II to break the cycle, which is enough to explain the limitations of the traditional path. 4. The key to breaking the game: The core value of hard currency (gold, Bitcoin) (1) The essential advantages of hard currency: increasing liquidity without increasing debt, Ridalio clearly stated in “Debt Crisis” that to resolve a century-level debt crisis, it is necessary to rely on hard currency (such as gold and Bitcoin). The core reason is: · Hard currency can provide capital liquidity to the market and will not increase the debt of any party; · The opposite of the logic of traditional banking systems: capital injection and “borrowing” will inevitably lead to an increase in debt accumulation, which ultimately results in high and difficult debt accumulation. (2) Historical references: Implications of the Bretton Woods system The 1944 Bretton Woods system essentially “anchored hard currency gold to issue dollars” — according to today's blockchain logic, it is equivalent to “anchoring gold to issue stablecoins”. It relied on this model to resolve the global debt crisis at the time. This historical experience proves that the crisis cannot be solved by “the central bank's exclusive issuance of currency”; it is necessary to combine “hard currency” with market consensus to find a way to bail out the market. (Note: Bretton Woods is small...
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