Still obsessed with altcoins? Let's take a look at HOOD
Author: Azuma
Original title: For those who still have an obsession with altcoins, just go for HOOD
Robinhood's (HOOD) stock price performance has been quite strong recently. It once returned above $100 last night. Unfortunately, the closing was not stable, but I am personally still optimistic about HOOD's future market performance.
In this downward cycle, HOOD is one of the few targets where I have continued to open positions (including exchanging positions), so I wanted to write an article about HOOD a long time ago. In the pastOdaily tea partyIn China, I briefly shared the logic of opening a position, but today I want to take advantage of the good stock price trend and have a detailed discussion. I need to state that this is not investment advice, nor does it represent the views of the platform; it is just some of my own thoughts when opening a position on HOOD.
Multi-dimensional benefit analysis
Regarding the reason for HOOD's recent rise, you can find many favorable explanations in different dimensions.
Let's look at the fundamentals first. Robinhood released the platform's May operating data last week. Details are as follows.
Total Assets:$377 billion, a record high;
Number of funded accounts (funded customers):27.7 million, a record high;
Margin Book (Margin Book):$19.5 billion, a record high;
Event Contracts Trading Volume (Event Contracts):3.9 billion copies, a record high;
Cash & Deposits Size (Cash & Deposits):US$18.6 billion, a record high;
Average daily options trading volume (Options ADV):11.6 million copies, tying the historical record;
Equity volume:US$315 billion, the second-highest in history;
Options Contract Volume (Options Contracts):2.31 million copies. The second-highest point in history;
The only “pullback” data is cryptocurrency volume (Crypto Volume): $12.2 billion, ranking only 16th in historical monthly data...
Some positive aspects of the news may be more likely to stir up investors' emotions.
The first is the fastest growing forecasting market aspect.Robinhood has begun intercepting Kalshi through the self-built forecasting market Rothera, and the relevant revenue is not expected to be shared with Kalshi since then. For details, please refer to our yesterday's “The first stock of the predictive market concept appeared!”.
Next is the IPO position. SpaceX's historic IPO brought record levels of traffic to Robinhood. More importantly,Robinhood Securities, the brokerage and clearing business unit of Robinhood, was approved as an IPO underwriter last weekThis means that Robinhood is expected to play a more central role in future IPO activities (such as Anthropic, OpenAI).
Then Robinhood was selected by the US Treasury as the brokerage firm and initial trustee for the “Trump Account.” The so-called “Trump Account” is a tax-deferred investment account plan authorized by US President Trump on June 9, 2025 based on the “Big and Beautiful” Act to establish government-funded savings accounts for children of US citizens born from January 1, 2025 to January 1, 2029.This means that over the next few years, tens of millions of American newborns will use Robinhood as their brokerage platform by default.For details, please refer to “Robinhood has added a number of new shareholders. The oldest is 1 year old and the youngest is -3 years old”.
In terms of market trends, there are some more intuitive signals.
Robinhood director Meyer Malka has continued to increase HOOD recently. Over the past week or two, Malka has accumulated an increase in HOOD worth more than $50 million.
Institutions have also given HOOD more positive price expectations.Goldman Sachs maintains a “buy” rating and has raised the target price from $105 to $108; Mizuho's target price is $115; Piper Sandler is the most optimistic, giving a target price forecast of $135.
As far as I am concerned, the main reason I initially placed a position on HOOD was that I was optimistic about its Q2 financial results. First, I expected that the revenue related to stock trading would explode this quarter under the epic market situation, and the other was the predicted surge in market trading volume that could be brought about by the World Cup, and Rothera's revenue interception effect.
However, the reason for exchanging a larger portion of positions (mainly remaining crypto assets) to HOOD later is another logic, which is what this article really wants to talk about.
Alternatives to altcoins
At the beginning of May, a friend asked me what I had bought recently. I mentioned HOOD, but at that time HOOD had just dropped from above $90 due to unanticipated Q1 earnings reports (mainly an unexpected $100 million “Trump Account” related expenses), and the short-term trend seemed quite bad.
My friend asked me why, and I simply explained the above reasons. He thought about it and wanted to say that unfortunately all the positions were locked up, and there were no bullets left. I asked him what he was holding. Not surprisingly, most of them were altcoins.
I said to him at the time:”Instead of being obsessed with altcoins, it's better to switch positions directly to HOOD.”
The reason behind this judgment is that for a long time in the past, crypto-related revenue has always been an important part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price trend is also strongly correlated with cryptocurrencies, but recently, there are certain signs that Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on the cryptocurrency business and is moving away from this correlation.
Let's first take a look at Robinhood's crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. It's not hard to see,Overall, this share of revenue is declining, and Q1's share has fallen to a new low since 2025.
In Q1 2025, total revenue was US$927 million, and crypto-related revenue of US$329 million, accounting for 35%;
In Q2 2025, total revenue was US$989 million, and crypto-related revenue of US$160 million, accounting for 16%;
In Q3 2025, total revenue was US$1,274 million, and crypto-related revenue of US$268 million, accounting for 21%;
In Q4 2025, total revenue was US$1,283 million, and crypto-related revenue of US$221 million, accounting for 17%;
In Q1 2026, total revenue was $1,067 million, and crypto-related revenue of $134 million, accounting for 13%.
Let's also take a look at the intuitive comparison between HOOD and BTC price fluctuations. Since the beginning of the year,HOOD has maintained a similar trend to BTC most of the time, but recently there has been a clear divergence.
The emphasis on these two points is mainly to explain,The valuation logic surrounding HOOD has begun to change.In the past, HOOD was often viewed as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market, and its business performance was clearly cyclical — the crypto market soared, retail investors rushed into Robinhood to frantically trade altcoins, fee revenue surged, and stock prices took off; the crypto market was sluggish, retail investors left, and Robinhood's revenue declined rapidly.
But today, Robinhood is no longer as heavily dependent on the cryptocurrency business as it used to be. Even if the crypto market continues to maintain its current half-dead state,Its stock trading, forecasting market, pre-IPO, and additional underwriting business are still expected to support its growth in performance.
That doesn't mean the cryptocurrency market won't affect HOOD anymore. Quite the opposite,If the crypto market returns to a bullish market in the future, Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue is likely to explode at the same time, and HOOD will still be able to enjoy the dividends brought about by the industry's growth.
In other words, to put it more bluntly, the coin industry will still influence HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on the coin community ——If the bull market in the coin market returns, HOOD will continue to rise. If the coin market continues to be half-dead, HOOD doesn't matter.
For all those who are still looking forward to altcoins but are increasingly concerned about liquidity depletion, narrative failure, and value capture issues, instead of continuing to place their hopes on a token that doesn't know when it will usher in the next round of narratives, the current HOOD may be an option with a higher margin of safety.
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